SWOD48
SPC AC 140951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
A VERY STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC APPEARS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
STATES...PERHAPS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ONE OR
TWO MINOR SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE EVOLVING PATTERN...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION...WHICH COULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT
THE PRESENT TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 01/14/2010
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