Thursday, January 14, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140805
SWODY3
SPC AC 140804

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A VERY STRONG
ZONAL JET OVER THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO NOSE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. JUST HOW THIS LEAD FEATURE INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE /NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WITHIN A SEPARATE STREAM NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER/...IF
AT ALL...AND ITS IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST...REMAIN POINTS OF CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY AMONG THE GUIDANCE. AND THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...SOUTHEAST...
A GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER STILL RECOVERING FROM RECENT
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSIONS WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL...BUT MODELS DO
APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER INLAND AREAS...SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN GULF COAST INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT IT WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AND
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE SIZABLE MODEL SPREAD
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION/TRACK... COUPLED WITH THE
UNCERTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT...THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

..KERR.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: