MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2171

ACUS11 KWNS 100405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100405
FLZ000-ALZ000-100700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 100405Z - 100700Z

RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AND PERSISTENT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN -- WITH
RATES GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/MOVE
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS EFFICIENT/WARM-CLOUD PRECIP REGIME IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WELL-DEFINED AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATED NE OF
CENTER OF T.S. IDA...AND CORRESPONDS LOOSELY TO AXIS OF COLDEST IR
CLOUD TOPS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT IS EVIDENT ON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN AND PARTS OF ERN
SEMICIRCLES...VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT N
OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PROFUSE PRECIP
PRODUCTION. RELATIVE MAX IN ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED IN ELEVATED
LAYER OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP RELATIVELY COOL/INLAND BOUNDARY
LAYER. COMBINATION OF ELY/CONTINENTAL ORIGIN OF SFC WINDS AND
PERSISTENT PRECIP INTO THAT LAYER HAS REINFORCED NEAR-SFC STATIC
STABILITY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ESEWD
FROM CORE REGION OF IDA ACROSS ERN GULF...WELL OFFSHORE FL
PANHANDLE...MOVING NWD BUT FCST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT LEAST FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE VIGOROUSLY CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY. WITH
SBCAPE ESSENTIALLY NIL...MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY 250-500 J/KG IS ROOTED WELL ABOVE SFC...IN
650-750 MB LAYER. AS WARM FRONTAL ZONE APCHS COAST LATER
TONIGHT...DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER MAY INCREASE...BUT WITH SOME OFFSET
BY DRIER AIR AND STABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30278816 30888806 31338767 31658678 31158606 30668574
30568605 30408658 30278816

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KMFR [100230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 100230
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
629 PM PST MON NOV 09 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
11/09/2009 M0.50 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 4 PM PST.

&&

$$

DW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100059
SWODY1
SPC AC 100058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR
LATER TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH THE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA...REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR LATEST DETAILS. IN SPITE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES/AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS/TALLAHASSEE CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS INLAND AHEAD OF IDA...ALTHOUGH A MORE
MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIRMASS MAY REACH COASTAL PORTIONS OF AL/FL
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. RISK FOR A TORNADO/CONVECTIVE
WIND CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND OF IDA/LIMITED OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND AN
INITIALLY STABLE INLAND AIRMASS ALL IMPLY SUCH A THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. OTHER TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE 00Z
OBSERVED RAOB FROM UIL REFLECTED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL FRONTAL BAND MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BOTH CASES...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 11/10/2009

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KMFR [100048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 100048
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PST MON NOV 09 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SILVER LAKE 43.13N 121.04W
11/09/2009 E45 MPH LAKE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SPOTTER THAT HAS NO NUMBER ASSIGNED YET REPORTS S
WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091944
SWODY1
SPC AC 091942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES/ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
REMAINS LARGELY CONTINGENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE
POTENTIAL FOR WHICH APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE EVEN OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IDA
MIGRATES INLAND. THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/ LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINT. THESE VALUES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER THAN EARLIER
PROGGED...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPER CONVECTION WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...APPEAR TO REMAIN FOCUSED JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

..KERR/COOK.. 11/09/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009/

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR T.S. IDA CONTINUES TO PLACE WHAT WILL BE LEFT
OF IDA/S SURFACE CENTER NEAR MOB AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLER
WATER. /REFERENCE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TODAY./ SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE GRADUAL
MOISTENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOME DESTABILIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ROTATING ONSHORE. DESPITE IDA LOSING SOME
STRUCTURE TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS 50+ KT ELY H85 JET DEVELOPS NWD. THIS COULD YIELD A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...MAINLY TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...
COLD POCKET OF MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF OPEN
CELL CUMULUS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG
THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

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KLIX [091744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 091744
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 AM STORM SURGE NEW ORLEANS 29.97N 90.08W
11/09/2009 E5.00 FT ORLEANS LA BROADCAST MEDIA

ROADS FLOODING IN VENETIAN ISLES SUBDIVISION IN FAR
EASTERN NEW ORLEANS. SUBDIVISION IS OUTSIDE HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEM.

&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091728
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS...NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TUESDAY...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSES CONTRIBUTE TO SHARPENING
TROUGHING WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN RESPONSE....DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGING MAY
OCCUR...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH TROUGHING IN A
WEAKER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND THE REMNANTS
OF IDA...AS CURRENT PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.

...EASTERN GULF COAST...
WHILE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED IDA APPEAR
LIKELY TO MIGRATE INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGHER CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE MOBILE BAY AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE NOW PRESENT NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THIS WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND THE EVOLUTION
OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN CONVECTION...WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT. INLAND ADVECTION OF
LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY APPEARS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...AND...UNLESS THIS OCCURS...EVEN THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES SEEM NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WEAK
MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION CENTER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH A
COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 11/09/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091540
SWODY1
SPC AC 091538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR T.S. IDA CONTINUES TO PLACE WHAT WILL BE LEFT
OF IDA/S SURFACE CENTER NEAR MOB AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLER
WATER. /REFERENCE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TODAY./ SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE GRADUAL
MOISTENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOME DESTABILIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ROTATING ONSHORE. DESPITE IDA LOSING SOME
STRUCTURE TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS 50+ KT ELY H85 JET DEVELOPS NWD. THIS COULD YIELD A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...MAINLY TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...
COLD POCKET OF MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF OPEN
CELL CUMULUS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG
THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/09/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091229
SWODY1
SPC AC 091227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OFF THE BC CST WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC/ PACIFIC
NW...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E FROM THE NRN RCKYS TO THE
NRN PLNS. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...MERGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
NOW OVER E TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ALREADY APPEAR TO BE
INFLUENCING HRCN IDA. IN RESPONSE...IDA SHOULD ACCELERATE NWD
TODAY...AND BE NEAR MOBILE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SEE
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR TRACK DETAILS.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LVL ELY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
IDA AND EXISTING SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT SOME OVERLAP MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE BETWEEN
CONVERGENT/STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW LVL WIND FIELD NE OF IDA...AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING
THE CST. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR CONVECTIVE
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST. BUT WITH THE TRUE
MARITIME AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WITH MID LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY WARM...PROSPECTS FOR AN
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT APPEAR LOW. ANY SVR WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR
MAY INVOLVE CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO PRODUCE THUNDER.

...PACIFIC NW...
DEEP FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WA/ORE CST IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE WA
CST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH CNTRL PORTIONS OF WA/ORE BY LATE IN THE
DAY...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE
CST. SCTD TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL... ARE
EXPECTED OVER WRN WA AND CSTL ORE AS UPR TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.

...SRN PLNS/LWR MO VLY...
A SMALL AREA OF STORMS HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING INVOF WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER NW OK/SRN KS. THE STORMS MAY PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN/NRN MO...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT IN THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHES WITH
CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER THE
UPR GRT LKS AND CNTRL CO.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/09/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090850
SWOD48
SPC AC 090850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW REGIME...MOST OF
WHICH WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT BY DAY 6 OR 7 A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR TO RETURN NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING HOW THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. WHILE
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6-7...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090719
SWODY3
SPC AC 090718

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER ERN TX IS FORECAST TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A NRN
STREAM TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND GULF COAST
REGION. IDA WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO EXTRA-TROPICAL STATUS...AND IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE EWD OR ESEWD THROUGH SRN GA OR NRN FL THIS
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED REMAIN LOW WITH REMNANTS OF
IDA. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090557
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL THROUGH NERN GULF COASTAL REGION...

HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE NWD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SUPPORTED BY GRADIENT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MAKES LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS
FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ENELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AIR INLAND WHERE
THE LARGEST 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO IDA MOVING
ONSHORE. GIVEN THE WARM CORE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE NEEDED TO DEVELOP SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE MAY NOT ADVECT ONSHORE UNTIL THE
CENTER IS WELL INLAND WITH 70S DEWPOINTS LIKELY TRAILING THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NET RESULT IS THAT THE LARGER HODOGRAPHS
MAY NOT BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090552
SWODY1
SPC AC 090551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CANADA
AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA
TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ULTIMATELY PHASE
WITH THE REMNANT LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING
FROM EAST TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE IDA WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST GULF COAST TONIGHT...REFERENCE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. INITIALLY...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IDA...STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE TRAJECTORIES VIA THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR INLAND UNTIL IDA APPROACHES LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL INTRODUCE LOW TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND
PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE APPROACH OF IDA. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POTENTIAL
FOR LIMITED OUTER BAND DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MODEST INLAND
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IDA WILL KEEP THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR TORNADOES/CONVECTIVE WIND LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
LEAD PORTION OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN/COASTAL RANGES...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL EVEN POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY PRIOR TO SUNSET ALONG WEAKENING
NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF MO/KS TO OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE. IN SPITE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT...WEAKENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OVERALL.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 11/09/2009

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