SWODY1
SPC AC 091227
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OFF THE BC CST WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC/ PACIFIC
NW...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E FROM THE NRN RCKYS TO THE
NRN PLNS. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...MERGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
NOW OVER E TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ALREADY APPEAR TO BE
INFLUENCING HRCN IDA. IN RESPONSE...IDA SHOULD ACCELERATE NWD
TODAY...AND BE NEAR MOBILE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. SEE
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR TRACK DETAILS.
...CNTRL GULF CST...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LVL ELY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
IDA AND EXISTING SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT SOME OVERLAP MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE BETWEEN
CONVERGENT/STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW LVL WIND FIELD NE OF IDA...AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING
THE CST. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR CONVECTIVE
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST. BUT WITH THE TRUE
MARITIME AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WITH MID LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY WARM...PROSPECTS FOR AN
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT APPEAR LOW. ANY SVR WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR
MAY INVOLVE CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO PRODUCE THUNDER.
...PACIFIC NW...
DEEP FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WA/ORE CST IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE WA
CST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH CNTRL PORTIONS OF WA/ORE BY LATE IN THE
DAY...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE
CST. SCTD TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL... ARE
EXPECTED OVER WRN WA AND CSTL ORE AS UPR TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.
...SRN PLNS/LWR MO VLY...
A SMALL AREA OF STORMS HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING INVOF WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER NW OK/SRN KS. THE STORMS MAY PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN/NRN MO...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT IN THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHES WITH
CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER THE
UPR GRT LKS AND CNTRL CO.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/09/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment