SWODY1
SPC AC 091538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR T.S. IDA CONTINUES TO PLACE WHAT WILL BE LEFT
OF IDA/S SURFACE CENTER NEAR MOB AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLER
WATER. /REFERENCE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TODAY./ SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE GRADUAL
MOISTENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOME DESTABILIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ROTATING ONSHORE. DESPITE IDA LOSING SOME
STRUCTURE TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS 50+ KT ELY H85 JET DEVELOPS NWD. THIS COULD YIELD A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...MAINLY TONIGHT.
...PACIFIC NW...
COLD POCKET OF MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF OPEN
CELL CUMULUS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG
THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/09/2009
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