KTFX [302229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302229
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
429 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 5 W BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.15W
06/30/2010 E2.00 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

REPORTS OF SHATTERED HOME WINDOWS.

0405 PM HAIL 1 E BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.02W
06/30/2010 E1.75 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

FIVE MINUTES OF GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL HAIL.

&&

$$

DEMANUEL

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KBRO [302213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 302213
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
513 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HURRICANE BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX AMATEUR RADIO

POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTON AND
MINNESOTA AVENUE.

&&

$$

TS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432

WWUS20 KWNS 302212
SEL2
SPC WW 302212
MTZ000-WYZ000-010500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN MONTANA
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILLINGS MONTANA TO 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLENDIVE MONTANA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WY ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. SWLY
MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH STORM
ROTATION POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
IN EASTERN MT WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...INDICATING SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...WEISS

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KTFX [302210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302210
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
410 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM HAIL BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.04W
06/30/2010 E1.00 INCH GALLATIN MT BROADCAST MEDIA

ONE-INCH SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

$$

JOH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1168

ACUS11 KWNS 302155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302154
MTZ000-WYZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...EXTREME N CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302154Z - 302300Z

AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
OVER SERN MT AND INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY WY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SWRN MT/ERN ID WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CNTRL
MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN WY
/EVIDENT ON VAPOR IMAGERY/ APPEARS TO BE TRIGGERING NEW CONVECTION
ACROSS N CNTRL/NERN WY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BIG HORN MTNS
IN WY...AND INTO S CNTRL MT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FARTHER
EWD WHERE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SFC T-TD SPREADS OF AROUND 30 DEG F PER 22Z OBS/
SHOULD ALSO WARRANT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..ROGERS.. 06/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 44800513 44660776 44990875 45050977 45341031 45721018
47010890 47390847 47540778 47720691 47660582 47560532
47230454 45280453 44800513

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KRIW [302148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 302148
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM TSTM WND GST GREYBULL 44.49N 108.06W
06/30/2010 M71 MPH BIG HORN WY ASOS

&&

$$

CJONES

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KRIW [302134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 302134
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N BASIN 44.42N 108.04W
06/30/2010 M70 MPH BIG HORN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ANEMOMETER AT LANDFILL NORTH OF BASIN RECORDED A WIND
GUST TO 70 MPH.

&&

$$

CJONES

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KMSO [302129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 302129
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
328 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 3 N LEADORE 44.72N 113.36W
06/30/2010 E0.88 INCH LEMHI ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

A ROAD CREW AT MULLEY GULCH RECIEVED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 300-315 PM MDT.

&&

$$

MEAD

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KTFX [302113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302113
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 4 ESE BELGRADE 45.75N 111.11W
06/30/2010 E2.75 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

JOH

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KTFX [302109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302109
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
309 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL VIRGINIA CITY 45.30N 111.94W
06/30/2010 E1.00 INCH MADISON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

JOH

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KTFX [302059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302059
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL 6 W BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.17W
06/30/2010 E1.75 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

$$

JOH

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KTFX [302044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302044
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
244 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM HAIL 7 W BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.19W
06/30/2010 E1.00 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDER SHOWER WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

JOH

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KTFX [302043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302043
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM HAIL 3 WNW BOZEMAN HOT SPRIN 45.66N 111.25W
06/30/2010 M1.00 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH DIAMETER - QUARTER SIZED - HAIL REPORTED FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. STILL HAILING. GROUND BECOMING WHITE DUE TO
HAIL.

&&

$$

COULSTON

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KMHX [302028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 302028
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N HATTERAS VILLAGE 35.23N 75.69W
06/30/2010 DARE NC SHIP

HATTERAS INLET FERRY REPORTS 2 WATERSPOUTS 11/2 MILES
NORTH OF HATTERAS INLET MOVING TOWARD HATTERAS INLET

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [302022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 302022
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM WATER SPOUT 5 N HATTERAS VILLAGE 35.29N 75.69W
06/30/2010 AMZ135 NC COAST GUARD

2 TO POSSIBLY 3 WATERSPOTS OBSERVED BY THE COAST GUARD
OVER PAMLICO SOUND

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KCRP [302013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 302013
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
313 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM TORNADO 5 N BAYSIDE 28.15N 97.24W
06/30/2010 REFUGIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ARANSAS COUNTY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO NEAR
BAYSIDE

&&

$$

PKUHN

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KTFX [302012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302012
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
211 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HAIL DILLON 45.22N 112.63W
06/30/2010 E0.25 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT PUBLIC

THUNDER SHOWER WITH PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

JOH

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KBRO [302008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction For Text

NWUS54 KBRO 302008 CCA
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION FOR TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
305 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM FLASH FLOOD BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED THAT RINGOLD STREET IS FLOODED NEAR THE
GLADYS PORTER ZOO AND THE CHILDRENS MUSEUM IS STARTING TO
FLOOD.

&&

$$

TS

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KBRO [302005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 302005
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
305 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM FLOOD BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED THAT RINGOLD STREET IS FLOODED NEAR THE
GLADYS PORTER ZOO AND THE CHILDRENS MUSEUM IS STARTING TO
FLOOD.

&&

$$

TS

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KILM [302004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 302004
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
404 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0626 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE CLIO 34.56N 79.53W
06/29/2010 MARLBORO SC BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES BLOWN DOWN DAMAGING A VEHICLE

&&

$$

TRA

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KBRO [302002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 302002
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM FLOOD BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT WATER COVERED BOCA
CHICA BOULEVARD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERNATIONAL.

&&

$$

TS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302001
SWODY1
SPC AC 301959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF TX INTO SW LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WRN
ND...

...TX COASTAL REGION TO SW LA COAST...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED NNEWD TO INCLUDE THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE TX COAST AND SWRN LA COAST. NELY SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEERING WITH HEIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
SHOWED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 OVER S TX WHICH IS
LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE ALEX AND VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SW LA. TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO 10 PERCENT OVER THE DEEP S TX COASTAL AREA WHERE
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL COUPLETS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF ALEX AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL TONIGHT /SEE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. FARTHER NNE ALONG THE
MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST TO SW LA...THE FAVORABLE SRH VALUES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE INLAND.

...ELSEWHERE...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS AS FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

..PETERS.. 06/30/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
HURRICANE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT IN NE MEXICO
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS N OF THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD S TX
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE WNW...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. GIVEN THE BROAD PLUME OF 77-80 F DEWPOINTS
N/NE OF THE HURRICANE CORE...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS
SPREADING INLAND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

...MT/WRN ND AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME MIDLEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER SW/S CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING
WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF AN EJECTING
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MT. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ON THE E EDGE OF
THE THICKER CLOUDS AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN SE MT/WRN
ND...WHILE OTHER STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW/S CENTRAL
MT AND SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CLOUDS. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL VARY FROM STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S/SW
MT...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND.
THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH EACH
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...SE STATES INTO FL THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEEP MOIST PROFILES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GULF
COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...SURFACE
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN REDUCED...AND THE RELATED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS HAS LIKEWISE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. FARTHER S...RICH MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE
FORMATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. THE
DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SW
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...NLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT ANVIL BLOWOFF TO THE S AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OF STRONGEST HEATING S OF OKEECHOBEE...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE
MAXIMIZED.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431

WWUS20 KWNS 301959
SEL1
SPC WW 301959
IDZ000-MTZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LEWISTOWN MONTANA TO 95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONIDA MONTANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW MT AND ID...ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BAND OF
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE
NOW NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...WILL SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...THOMPSON

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KBRO [301959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301959
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM FUNNEL CLOUD HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR HARLINGEN AIRPORT.

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KBRO [301957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301957
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
256 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HURRICANE HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS WIND DAMAGE ON WILSON ROAD, 1.5 MILES WEST
OF HIGHWAY 77 IN HARLINGEN. FIREWORKS STAND TURNED OVER,
FENCE BLOWN OVER, CAR MOVED ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KHGX [301950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 301950
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TORNADO 12 ENE SOUTH TEXAS NUCL 28.86N 95.86W
06/30/2010 MATAGORDA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
WADSWORTH. THE TORNADO CAUSED MINIMAL DAMAGE IN A
PASTURE.

&&

$$

99

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KMHX [301937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 301937
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG ALLIANCE 35.14N 76.81W
06/29/2010 PAMLICO NC PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND ALLIANCE. SEVERAL LARGE
TREES SNAPPED OF 12-15 FEET ABOVE GROUND. SEVERAL TREES
DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 304 BETWEEN BAYBORO AND MESIC.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1167

ACUS11 KWNS 301928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301928
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-302030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...SW MT...NW WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301928Z - 302030Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN ID INTO SW MT AND EXTREME NW WY.
MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

19Z SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK MCV-LIKE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
MT MOVING NE. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO SW MT...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 45-55 RANGE. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /H7-H5 LR AOA 7.0 C/KM/ ARE
PRESENT PER 12Z AREA RAOBS. CONTINUED STRONG SFC HEATING WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /ML CAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG PER SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL ID INTO SW MT AND FAR NW WY.

STRONG FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS/. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXTEND FROM CNTRL ID INTO SW MT AND FAR NW WY...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SERN ID AS WELL.

..DEAN.. 06/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 45321432 46221382 46771294 47281161 47560996 47050902
46230886 45450902 44830940 44400985 44101026 43711099
43361132 42861187 42271290 42291408 43001457 44061464
44851456 45321432

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KCAE [301915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 301915
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
310 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE NORTH 33.60N 81.03W
06/29/2010 ORANGEBURG SC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON FOREST CREEK DRIVE REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
MANAGER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

MJP

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KCHS [301911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301911
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
311 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
06/30/2010 E0.25 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
SAVANNAH.

&&

$$

DPB

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KHGX [301910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 301910
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
210 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TORNADO 6 E WADSWORTH 29.83N 95.83W
06/30/2010 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
WADSWORTH. THE TORNADO CAUSED MINIMAL DAMAGE IN A
PASTURE.

&&

$$

99

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KLCH [301909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 301909
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
209 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 20 SSE CONSTANCE BEACH 29.49N 93.51W
06/30/2010 M49 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 130

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KBRO [301901]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301901
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
201 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM FUNNEL CLOUD LA FERIA 26.16N 97.82W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR EL CENTRO FOODS ON MAIN
STREET.

&&

$$

TS

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KCRP [301839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 301839
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
139 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNE ROBSTOWN 27.88N 97.62W
06/30/2010 NUECES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR LABONTE PARK

&&

$$

PKUHN

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KCTP [301838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 301838
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE BRADFORD 41.92N 78.55W
06/28/2010 MCKEAN PA EMERGENCY MNGR

THUNDERSTORM WINDS KNOCKED DOWN A SWATH OF TREES ABOUT 1
MILE WEST OF DUKE CENTER ALONG ROUTE 346. THE TREE DAMAGE
EXTENDED FOR ABOUT 200 YARDS...AND WAS ABOUT 100 YARD
WIDE.

&&

$$

PAJ

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KLCH [301833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 301833
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
133 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 20 S JOHNSON BAYOU 29.48N 93.63W
06/30/2010 M52 MPH GMZ450 LA ASOS

FAA AWOS SITE ID VBS

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KMSO [301830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KMSO 301830
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1230 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL OVANDO 47.02N 113.13W
06/29/2010 E0.88 INCH POWELL MT PUBLIC

EMPLOYEE AT TRIXIES BAR IN OVANDO ESTIMATE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG NE OVANDO 47.02N 113.13W
06/29/2010 POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTERS REPORT A COTTONWOOD TREE FALLEN ACROSS THE ROAD.

0350 PM TSTM WND GST NE OVANDO 47.02N 113.13W
06/29/2010 E60.00 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH FROM
STORM. SMALLER TREE BRANCHES DOWN WITH THE LARGEST BRANCH
ESTIMATED AT 4 INCHES.

0620 PM HAIL 3 S CONDON 47.48N 113.71W
06/29/2010 E1.50 INCH MISSOULA MT CO-OP OBSERVER

1.50 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT LINDBERGH LAKE. STRIPPING
SMALL BRANCHES OFF PINES AND COVERING THE GROUND.

0625 PM HAIL 4 SSE CONDON 47.48N 113.68W
06/29/2010 E1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SWAN RIVER LODGE REPORTS PERIOD OF INCH SIZE
HAIL...ACCOMPANIED WITH PEA AND MARBLE SIZES ALSO.

0700 PM HAIL COTTONWOOD 46.05N 116.35W
06/29/2010 M1.00 INCH IDAHO ID PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED THAT LASTEST 10 TO 15 MINS IN
COTTONWOOD.

0710 PM HAIL 1 SW FENN 45.96N 116.26W
06/29/2010 M1.25 INCH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL 1 SW KOOSKIA 46.14N 115.98W
06/29/2010 E1.00 INCH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW MISSOULA 46.92N 114.07W
06/29/2010 MISSOULA MT BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA SHARED PHOTOS OF BACKYARD TRAMPOLINE BLOWN UP
AGAINST SIDE OF HOME. DAMAGE TO HOME IS UNKNOWN AT TIME.

0940 PM HAIL 6 NW MISSOULA 46.93N 114.08W
06/29/2010 M1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEES MEASURED INCH SIZE HAIL AT THE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.

0950 PM HAIL 6 N MISSOULA 46.96N 113.99W
06/29/2010 M1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED ONE INCH SIZE HAIL AT RESIDENCE
NORTH OF MISSOULA IN THE PROSPECT CREEK NEIGHBORHOOD.

1023 PM HAIL 3 S SEELEY LAKE 47.14N 113.48W
06/29/2010 E1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N FLORENCE 46.65N 114.08W
06/29/2010 E60.00 MPH RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CALLED IN BY SPOTTER BEFORE THE PHONE CUT OUT.

1045 PM DOWNBURST FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
06/29/2010 RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THE FLORENCE BRIDGE ALONG THE EAST SIDE HIGHWAY HAD ABOUT
5 OR 6 TREES BLOWN DONW. EXACT SIZE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

1045 PM DOWNBURST 3 S FLORENCE 46.59N 114.08W
06/29/2010 RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THE BASS CREEK CAMPGROUND HAD LARGE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN
AND ALL BUT ONE CAMPER EVACUATED CAMPGROUND

1045 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FLORENCE 46.63N 114.04W
06/29/2010 RAVALLI MT NWS EMPLOYEE

POWER OUT IN THE FLORENCE AREA REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE.

1045 PM DOWNBURST E FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
06/29/2010 RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PERSONAL TRAMPOLINE WAS BLOWN 1/4 MILE AWAY ONTO THE SIDE
OF HIGHWAY 93

1045 PM DOWNBURST STEVENSVILLE 46.51N 114.09W
06/29/2010 RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CHIEF LOOKING GLASS CAMPGROUND HAD NUMEROUS TREES BLOW
DOWN IN THE CAMPGROUND. ONE OF WHICH WAS A 2 FT DIAMETER
PONDEROSA PINE SNAPPED AT THE BASE

1100 PM DOWNBURST 3 SW LOLO 46.73N 114.12W
06/29/2010 MISSOULA MT NWS STORM SURVEY

STRONG WINDS KNOCKED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...SOME UP TO 18
INCHES IN DIAMETER.

1100 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S LOLO 46.72N 114.08W
06/29/2010 MISSOULA MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 93 AND CARLTON CREEK ROAD
BETWEEN LOLO AND FLORENCE.

&&

$$

PALLISTE

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KLCH [301818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 301818
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 26 SW BURNS POINT 29.34N 91.87W
06/30/2010 E40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 239

&&

$$

MOGGED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1166

ACUS11 KWNS 301813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301813
LAZ000-TXZ000-301945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301813Z - 301945Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SE TX
AND SW LA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SW LA SWWD ALONG
THE TX COAST. THE WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST SHOW 0-1 KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TO
THE WEST BRINGING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER INLAND. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY MAY ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. THESE TWO FACTORS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF ALEX.

..BROYLES.. 06/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28489642 28519662 28619672 28769679 29069662 29889540
30279447 30439359 30379282 30179236 29839232 29669250
29669291 29679383 28919541 28559598 28489642

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KRAH [301749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 301749
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG GOLDSBORO 35.37N 77.98W
06/29/2010 WAYNE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN ALONG ASH STREET IN GOLDSBORO.

&&

$$

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KPIH [301736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPIH 301736
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1135 AM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W CRATERS OF MOON 43.42N 113.59W
06/29/2010 M43.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

TOM CAT SUMMIT DOT TOWER 30FT

0415 PM TSTM WND GST CRATERS OF MOON 43.42N 113.53W
06/29/2010 M79.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

INL TOWER 49FT

0440 PM TSTM WND GST ARCO 43.63N 113.30W
06/29/2010 M64.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

INL TOWER 49 FT

0447 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W ARCO 43.63N 113.36W
06/29/2010 M39.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

RAWS TOWER 20FT

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 4 WSW SOUTHWEST INL 43.50N 113.05W
06/29/2010 M56.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E ARCO 43.63N 113.18W
06/29/2010 M61.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

DEAD MAN CAYNON INL TOWER 49 FT

0454 PM TSTM WND GST 14 S CRATERS OF MOON 43.23N 113.57W
06/29/2010 M62.00 MPH BLAINE ID MESONET

0455 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S CENTRAL INL 43.53N 112.95W
06/29/2010 M53.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0455 PM TSTM WND GST NE CENTRAL INL 43.59N 112.94W
06/29/2010 E56.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 9 E ARCO 43.63N 113.12W
06/29/2010 M58.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

NAVAL REACTOR INL TOWER 49FT

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNW CENTRAL INL 43.68N 113.01W
06/29/2010 M52.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0511 PM TSTM WND GST 10 WNW HAILEY 43.55N 114.49W
06/29/2010 M54.00 MPH BLAINE ID MESONET

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW NORTHWEST INL 43.78N 112.76W
06/29/2010 M51.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE ABERDEEN 42.96N 112.82W
06/29/2010 M56.00 MPH BINGHAM ID MESONET

0650 PM TSTM WND GST SSE ATOMIC CITY 43.44N 112.81W
06/29/2010 M57.00 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

0715 PM TSTM WND GST 11 W OSGOOD 43.55N 112.33W
06/29/2010 M57.00 MPH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SSW TERRETON 43.72N 112.53W
06/29/2010 E58.00 MPH JEFFERSON ID MESONET

0751 PM TSTM WND GST STANLEY 44.22N 114.94W
06/29/2010 M51.00 MPH CUSTER ID OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0810 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW REXBURG 43.81N 111.81W
06/29/2010 M51.00 MPH MADISON ID MESONET

0811 PM TSTM WND GST 11 WNW SWAN VALLEY 43.53N 111.50W
06/29/2010 M50.00 MPH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

0820 PM TSTM WND GST SUGAR CITY 43.87N 111.75W
06/29/2010 M51.00 MPH MADISON ID MESONET

0820 PM TSTM WND GST TABER 43.32N 112.63W
06/29/2010 M55.00 MPH BINGHAM ID MESONET

0839 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S STANLEY 44.17N 114.93W
06/29/2010 M56.00 MPH CUSTER ID MESONET

1155 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW IDAHO FALLS 43.50N 112.05W
06/29/2010 M56.00 MPH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

0840 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E ASHTON 44.07N 111.42W
06/29/2010 E60 MPH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 60 MPH.

&&
A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF JUNE 29, 2010.

$$

CHATTINGS

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KBRO [301734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301734
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM TORNADO 5 N RAYMONDVILLE 26.55N 97.78W
06/30/2010 WILLACY TX OTHER FEDERAL

TEXAS MILITARY FORCES REPORTED TORNADO ON GROUND FIVE
MILES NORTH OF RAYMONDVILLE.

&&

$$

HART

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO WRN AND NRN ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS/CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CENTRAL CANADA RIDGE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INLAND ACROSS THE WRN STATES.

...NRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONCURRENTLY TRACK NEWD
FROM WA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WHILE A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
SEWD...REACHING THE WA/ORE COAST BY 02/00Z. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM
NERN-SWRN ND WITH THE TRAILING EXTENT RETREATING NWWD INTO SERN MT
BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY FROM NRN WY/SERN MT TO WRN ND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN/WRN MT SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MT TO THE 60S IN WRN ND/ WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT SUGGESTS A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/
LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS NEAR-SURFACE INHIBITION INCREASES...
STRONGER STORMS/POTENTIAL MCS MAY BE SUSTAINED/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NRN MT/NW ND DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF PACIFIC NW TROUGH.

...SOUTH TX...
REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON HURRICANE ALEX. IN
CONCERT WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF ALEX ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE LOW TORNADO/
CONVECTIVE-RELATED WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTH TX AS
RIGHT-PERIPHERY ENHANCED WIND FIELDS AFFECT THE REGION.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO SRN AL/GA AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E/SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS/EAST COAST. DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT INTERACTS/MERGES WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 06/30/2010

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KLCH [301726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 301726
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 S BURNS POINT 29.02N 91.58W
06/30/2010 M40.00 MPH GMZ475 XX PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 108

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KBRO [301636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301636
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM TORNADO 2 W BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.51W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

BROWNSVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED DAMAGE ON WEST
SIDE OF THE CITY AT 6851 MILITARY HIGHWAY. MOBILE HOME
TURNED OVER, TREE DAMAGE AND PIPE DAMAGE TO A WATERMILL
EXPRESS. SEVERAL PEOPLE SAW ACTUAL TORNADO.

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301632
SWODY1
SPC AC 301631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WRN
ND...

...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
HURRICANE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT IN NE MEXICO
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS N OF THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD S TX
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE WNW...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. GIVEN THE BROAD PLUME OF 77-80 F DEWPOINTS
N/NE OF THE HURRICANE CORE...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS
SPREADING INLAND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

...MT/WRN ND AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME MIDLEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER SW/S CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING
WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF AN EJECTING
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MT. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ON THE E EDGE OF
THE THICKER CLOUDS AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN SE MT/WRN
ND...WHILE OTHER STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW/S CENTRAL
MT AND SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CLOUDS. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL VARY FROM STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S/SW
MT...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND.
THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH EACH
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...SE STATES INTO FL THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEEP MOIST PROFILES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GULF
COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...SURFACE
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN REDUCED...AND THE RELATED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS HAS LIKEWISE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. FARTHER S...RICH MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE
FORMATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. THE
DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SW
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...NLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT ANVIL BLOWOFF TO THE S AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OF STRONGEST HEATING S OF OKEECHOBEE...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE
MAXIMIZED.

..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 06/30/2010

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KBRO [301613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301613
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1113 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM TORNADO PORT ISABEL 26.07N 97.22W
06/30/2010 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS FENCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STREET AND
TREES DOWN BEHIND CONVENIENCE STORE AT THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAY 100 AND MESSINA STREET IN PORT ISABEL.

&&

$$

CAMPBELL

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KLCH [301604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 301604
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1104 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 54 SSE PECAN ISLAND 28.90N 92.16W
06/29/2010 E40.00 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 171

1220 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
06/30/2010 M41.00 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS

FAA AWOS SITE ID SCF

0155 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 20 S JOHNSON BAYOU 29.48N 93.64W
06/30/2010 M43.00 MPH GMZ450 LA AWOS

FAA AWOS SITE ID VBS

0400 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 52 SSW BURNS POINT 28.84N 91.73W
06/30/2010 E40.00 MPH GMZ475 XX PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 158.

1100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 S PECAN ISLAND 29.09N 92.51W
06/30/2010 M40.00 MPH GMZ472 LA PUBLIC

REPORT FORM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 119

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KCAE [301550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 301550
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1150 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE BLACKSTOCK 34.54N 81.11W
06/29/2010 FAIRFIELD SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTS TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
HWY 32 AND HWY 52. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

MJP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 430

WWUS20 KWNS 301544
SEL0
SPC WW 301544
TXZ000-CWZ000-010100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD EXTREME NE
MEXICO...LEAVING S TX IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION. LOCAL VWP/S HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE TENDING TO SURVIVE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TIME IN
THE BANDS N OF THE STORM CENTER. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 77-80 F
DEWPOINTS...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...THE PROBABILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09035.

...THOMPSON

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