SWODY1
SPC AC 301631
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WRN
ND...
...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
HURRICANE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT IN NE MEXICO
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS N OF THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD S TX
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE WNW...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. GIVEN THE BROAD PLUME OF 77-80 F DEWPOINTS
N/NE OF THE HURRICANE CORE...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS
SPREADING INLAND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
...MT/WRN ND AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME MIDLEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER SW/S CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING
WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF AN EJECTING
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MT. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ON THE E EDGE OF
THE THICKER CLOUDS AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN SE MT/WRN
ND...WHILE OTHER STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW/S CENTRAL
MT AND SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CLOUDS. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL VARY FROM STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S/SW
MT...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND.
THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH EACH
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
...SE STATES INTO FL THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEEP MOIST PROFILES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GULF
COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...SURFACE
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN REDUCED...AND THE RELATED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS HAS LIKEWISE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. FARTHER S...RICH MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE
FORMATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. THE
DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SW
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...NLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT ANVIL BLOWOFF TO THE S AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OF STRONGEST HEATING S OF OKEECHOBEE...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE
MAXIMIZED.
..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 06/30/2010
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