Thursday, October 21, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220045
SWODY1
SPC AC 220043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING IN LINE
WITH EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THAT AN MCS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ SHIFTS
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING SOUTH
OF I-20...IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE/PROBABLE THAT CONVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PLAINS NEAR LBB THAT WILL
THEN FEED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS. WITH THE
ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
IS DWINDLING AND THE PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTI-CELLULAR IN
NATURE. LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/22/2010

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KABQ [220019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 220019
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
619 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.66N 104.61W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM ASOS

KROW ASOS. OBSERVER REPORTED TORNADO NW OF ROSWELL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002177

$$

AA

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KABQ [220006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 220006
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0603 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.68N 104.59W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002176

$$

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KMAF [220002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 220002
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
701 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 PM HAIL 9 W ANDREWS 32.34N 102.69W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH ANDREWS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE GROUND JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 3901 AND STATE HIGHWAY 176


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KABQ [212359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 212359
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM TORNADO 18 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.64N 104.63W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM PUBLIC

CONFIRMED SECOND REPORT. TORNADO STILL ON GROUND.
TORNADO PERSISTENT FOR PAST 10 MINUTES


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002175

$$

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KABQ [212354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KABQ 212354
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TORNADO 16 NW BITTER LAKE WILDL 33.61N 104.63W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002174

$$

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KABQ [212350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KABQ 212350
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TORNADO 10 E ARABELA 33.59N 105.00W
10/21/2010 LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002174

$$

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KABQ [212349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 212349
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TORNADO 10 E ROSWELL 33.37N 104.36W
10/21/2010 CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002174

$$

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KLUB [212326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212326
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 17TH AND CHICAGO.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000337

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1961

ACUS11 KWNS 212318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212317
OKZ000-TXZ000-220115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX...FAR SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 701...

VALID 212317Z - 220115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 701
CONTINUES.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS W TX...WITH
INCREASING SLY LLJ AND COOLING ALOFT. STORMS ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS
NEAR THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE HAVE BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME...ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS. SOME HAIL...BUT
ALSO GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES
SLOWLY EWD.

TO THE S INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LESS MERIDIONAL.
THEREFORE...THE GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME STABILIZATION
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S
F. THIS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN STORMS WITH TIME...AND IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 701. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

..JEWELL.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 30460186 30470396 35170095 35159880 30460186

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KLUB [212318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212318
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM FLOOD MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 TERRY TX PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN MEADOW.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000336

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212318
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM FLOOD LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 LUBBOCK TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS IN THE CITY OF
LUBBOCK.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000335

$$

AMP

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KMAF [212311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212311
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 7 S SEAGRAVES 32.84N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH GAINES TX STORM CHASER

A FEW HALF DOLLARS MIXED IN WITH THE QUARTER HAIL.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KLUB [212306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212306
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT 55TH AND UTICA.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000334

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212300
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 PM HAIL LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 73RD AND SLIDE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000333

$$

AMP

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KMAF [212258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212258
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM TORNADO 2 SW RANKIN 31.20N 101.96W
10/21/2010 UPTON TX STORM CHASER

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON US 67 2 MILES SW OF RANKIN.
TORNADO LIFTED AT 550.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KLUB [212251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212251
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.27W
10/21/2010 E1.50 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000332

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212247
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 1 SE BROWNFIELD 33.17N 102.26W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000331

$$

AMP

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KABQ [212244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 212244
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM HAIL 3 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.15N 106.59W
10/21/2010 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

ACADEMY AND BURLISON.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002173

$$

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KABQ [212242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 212242
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.50W
10/21/2010 M1.00 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SPAIN AND TRAMWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002172

$$

AA

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KABQ [212238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 212238
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
438 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM HAIL 2 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.14N 106.60W
10/21/2010 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SAN MATEO AND I-25.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002171

$$

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KLUB [212224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212224
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000330

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212210
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL MEADOW 33.34N 102.21W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000329

$$

AMP

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KMAF [212159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212159
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL ROYALTY 31.37N 102.87W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH WARD TX STORM CHASER


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KMAF [212158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212158
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 10 N GIRVIN 31.21N 102.39W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH CRANE TX STORM CHASER

QUARTER AND LARGER HAIL 5-10 MILES NORTH OF GIRVIN. HAIL
COVERS FM11 AND IS ONE INCH DEEP.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1960

ACUS11 KWNS 212146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212145
NMZ000-AZZ000-212315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212145Z - 212315Z

THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NWRN
NM THROUGH AROUND 01Z. A WW IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS AREA.

21Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS INTO W CNTRL NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ON S/SELY SFC WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING WIDESPREAD. FARTHER TO THE W...AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING EWD FROM AZ INTO WRN NM RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NWRN NM. INTENSE UPDARAFTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER FLOW /BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM MAY RESULT IN SMALL
HAIL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

LAT...LON 36650909 36940779 36820632 36580563 36250508 35770485
35280497 34840556 34520632 34730690 35070753 35200829
35380891 35790926 36200922 36650909

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KLUB [212115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLUB 212115
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000327

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLUB 212115
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 9 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.67W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH YOAKUM TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000326

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212112
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL TOKIO 33.18N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN TOKIO.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000328

$$

AMP

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KLUB [212057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212057
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL TOKIO 33.18N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000327

$$

AMP

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KGYX [212048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 212048
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
447 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SE KITTERY 42.97N 70.62W
10/21/2010 M43 MPH ANZ154 NH C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

ERICSC

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KLUB [212046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 212046
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL TOKIO 33.18N 102.57W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH TERRY TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000326

$$

MCZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959

ACUS11 KWNS 212042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212042
TXZ000-NMZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/E CNTRL NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212042Z - 212215Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONFINED OR LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...SO THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS STILL NOT CERTAIN. BUT...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

INITIATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THRU 23-00Z...AS ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PECOS
PLAINS...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32080459 32740482 33260516 33830526 34440493 34060441
33910372 33280293 32100325 31750346 32080459

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KBOX [212039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 212039
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM MARINE TSTM WIND PRUDENCE ISLAND 41.60N 71.32W
10/21/2010 M40.00 MPH NEWPORT RI MESONET

0333 PM MARINE TSTM WIND WARWICK 41.70N 71.42W
10/21/2010 M44.00 MPH KENT RI ASOS

0337 PM MARINE TSTM WIND BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/21/2010 M39.00 MPH SUFFOLK MA ASOS

0344 PM MARINE TSTM WIND NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
10/21/2010 M44.00 MPH NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

0348 PM MARINE TSTM WIND HULL 42.30N 70.90W
10/21/2010 M41.00 MPH PLYMOUTH MA MESONET


&&

$$

HFRANK

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KMAF [212025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212025
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 10 NE FORT STOCKTON 30.99N 102.77W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH PECOS TX STORM CHASER

HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM NICKELS TO GOLFBALLS.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KMAF [212015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212015
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HAIL 11 N FORT STOCKTON 31.05N 102.89W
10/21/2010 E1.75 INCH PECOS TX STORM CHASER


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KAMA [212008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 212008
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 10 SW CLARENDON 34.83N 101.02W
10/21/2010 E1.00 INCH DONLEY TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000836

$$

SFJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211955
SWODY1
SPC AC 211953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATED IN THE SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION #1958...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED
CONVECTION DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TX AND NWD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE SERN NM SURFACE LOW AND ALONG SWRN EXTENT OF
ONGOING TX PANHANDLE MCS.

A COUPLE OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREAL COVERAGE--
1. THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES AND 2 PERCENT
TORNADO THREAT HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SWRN OK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ENEWD MOVING MCS THAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR MCS. THE
LEAD BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ARMSTRONG TO FLOYD COUNTIES TX
WAS MOVING ENE AT 30 KT WITH A 46 KT WIND GUST AT KPVW /HALE COUNTY/
AT 1845Z. GIVEN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO SWRN OK...THE
SLIGHT RISK /MAINLY A WIND THREAT/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO
INCLUDE MORE OF SWRN OK.

2. GIVEN INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO VALUES AT OR EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS /GENERALLY S OF THE ONGOING MCS/ TO
THE PECOS RIVER AREA AND TX BIG BEND...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
BECOMING STRONGER ATTENDANT TO STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...
A SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THIS OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 10/21/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010/

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS ERN NM/TX BORDER REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SELY FLOW OF GULF AIR AND LARGE SCALE
DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER LOW. MODEL WORLD HAS HAD
SOME PROBLEM NOT ONLY FORECASTING BUT INITIALIZING FOR THIS MCS.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX AND EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MCS...MLCAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AOA 1500 J/KG PRIOR TO
REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
INITIAL FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN TX
PANHANDLE ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THEN SWD NEAR DRY
LINE THRU SWRN TX.

ATTM THE FACTOR FOR NOT ADDING SIG HAIL AND A GREATER TORNADO THREAT
IS THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER WITH BRN SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT WITH APPROACHING JET MAX
NOW ACROSS NRN MEX AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY THAN NOW
EXPECTED WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT AT 20Z.

REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WAKE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS ERN NM AS THE UPPER LOW NOW SRN AZ TRACKS
INTO SWRN NM BY THIS EVENING. AGAIN HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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KVEF [211954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 211954
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1253 PM PDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TORNADO 4 E KINGMAN 35.20N 113.96W
10/18/2010 F0 MOHAVE AZ NWS STORM SURVEY

TILES WERE DAMAGED ON THE ROOF OF TWO HOMES IN THE RANCHO
SANTA FE SUBDIVISION OF KINGMAN. NWS STORM SURVEY
CONFIRMS TWO BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS OF AN EF0 TORNADO WITH WIND
SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH. THE TOUCHDOWNS WERE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1.2 MILES APART.


&&

$$

JGG

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 701

WWUS20 KWNS 211932
SEL1
SPC WW 211932
OKZ000-TXZ000-220300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
FROM MORNING MCS AND IN ADVANCE OF THE AZ UPPER LOW. WITH MLCAPES
NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF JET MAX OVER NRN MEXICO...STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958

ACUS11 KWNS 211755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211754
TXZ000-NMZ000-212000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS
REGION...SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211754Z - 212000Z

THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
...AND ONE OR MORE WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ARIZONA CLOSED LOW. THIS FORCING IS GENERALLY IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY... WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING UPSTREAM NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...AND FURTHER WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.

IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE INITIATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK THROUGH THE
CHILDRESS AREA PRIOR TO 21Z...THOUGH THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD
POOL ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS REGION IS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...A SHARPENING DRY LINE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION BENEATH
GENERALLY DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP.

..KERR.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30060258 30890278 31930318 32870279 33770188 34290038
33640019 32570100 31860172 30840143 29920176 30060258

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211716
SWODY2
SPC AC 211715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS REX BLOCK
DURING DAY 1 AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND RESULTING IN HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE BLOCK. THE SWRN STATES CLOSED
LOW...BEING DISLODGED DURING DAY 1...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON
FRIDAY...TRACKING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO WRN/CENTRAL NEB BY
23/12Z. STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LEAD TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DURING DAY 2.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AT 22/12Z WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD REACHING NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BY 23/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS W TX AND OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
INTO SWRN KS FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY...WITH
PRONOUNCED RIDGING EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
GIVEN THE NEWD TRACK OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
TRAJECTORIES ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AT 12Z FRIDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS FROM WRN/NRN TX THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL OK
TO PART OF SRN KS. DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE TEMPORAL EXTENT TO WHICH THE MORNING ACTIVITY PERSISTS...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS N TX AND OK INVOF STRENGTHENING SLY
LLJ AND WEAK CAPPING SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE. SURFACE
HEATING MAY BE INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF OK DUE TO ATTENDANT
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS...WITH GREATER HEATING EXPECTED FROM WRN OK
INTO THE PANHANDLES AND N-S ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD
NEB. THESE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS WILL AFFECT THE DISTRIBUTION OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST VALUES OF MLCAPE /UP TO 1000-1500 J
PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME MIDLEVEL COOLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO N TX/OK AND ERN KS
DURING THAT PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO THE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ATTENDANT TO STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT SPREADING NEWD WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE LLJ...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX NWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK TO SWRN KS AS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTATION TO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SUCH THAT BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL
SEVERE THREATS WILL BE EXPECTED INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT AS LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WRN EXTENT OF CORRIDOR OF STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WINDS. FARTHER NW INTO SWRN KS...INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKER...BUT STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GREATER HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD COMPENSATE IN SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THERE IS
SOME MODEL INDICATION THAT A LINEAR MCS WILL EVOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX...OK AND ERN KS...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OK/N TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.

..PETERS.. 10/21/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211603
SWODY1
SPC AC 211601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NM...WRN TX...AND FAR
SWRN OK...

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS ERN NM/TX BORDER REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SELY FLOW OF GULF AIR AND LARGE SCALE
DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER LOW. MODEL WORLD HAS HAD
SOME PROBLEM NOT ONLY FORECASTING BUT INITIALIZING FOR THIS MCS.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX AND EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MCS...MLCAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AOA 1500 J/KG PRIOR TO
REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
INITIAL FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN TX
PANHANDLE ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THEN SWD NEAR DRY
LINE THRU SWRN TX.

ATTM THE FACTOR FOR NOT ADDING SIG HAIL AND A GREATER TORNADO THREAT
IS THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER WITH BRN SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT WITH APPROACHING JET MAX
NOW ACROSS NRN MEX AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY THAN NOW
EXPECTED WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT AT 20Z.

REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WAKE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS ERN NM AS THE UPPER LOW NOW SRN AZ TRACKS
INTO SWRN NM BY THIS EVENING. AGAIN HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..HALES/BROYLES.. 10/21/2010

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KMAF [211548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 211548
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM HAIL TATUM 33.26N 103.32W
10/21/2010 E0.88 INCH LEA NM PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

KURT.KOTENBERG

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KEPZ [211524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 211524
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
924 AM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM TSTM WND GST 10 ENE WHITE SANDS MAIN 32.44N 106.33W
10/20/2010 M58 MPH OTERO NM MESONET

REPORT RELAYED FROM WSMR MET TEAM...SAMS MESONET.


&&

$$

HARDIMAN

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KGRR [211309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 211309
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
908 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 AM SLEET ALLENDALE 42.97N 85.95W
10/21/2010 M0.25 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET RANGING FROM 1/8
TO 1/4 INCH.


&&

$$

GWETZEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211237
SWODY1
SPC AC 211235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NM...WRN TX...AND FAR
SWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
FEATURES WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN HAVE BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA MOVING
EWD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN STATES TRANSLATING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOWER
LATITUDE CLOSED LOW ALONG EXTREME SWRN AZ/NWRN SONORA BORDER HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD
INTO NRN NM TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE LOW AND TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER ERN NM/SWRN TX TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD
TOWARD THE NM/TX BORDER LATER TONIGHT.

...NM/WRN TX AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD OVER ERN NM IN ADVANCE OF THE
SWRN UPPER LOW...WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ISOLATED
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING...BUT THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IS
EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN/EAST CENTRAL NM. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOMEWHAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE REGIONS OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF SERN NM INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND SWRN TX...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN
35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. THIS FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN TX BY THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY 03-06Z AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..WEISS/ROGERS.. 10/21/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210843
SWOD48
SPC AC 210843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER DAKOTAS/SRN SK/SRN MB
DAY-5...BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN TO NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN WAKE OF SRN-STREAM TROUGH FCST TO MOVE OVER TX/OK
DAY-4/24TH-25TH. MEANWHILE...NRN-STREAM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STG
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...THEN ON
DAY-5...DECELERATING OVER TX BENEATH STG MID-UPPER WLYS. AFTER EWD
DEPARTURE/WEAKENING OF DAY-4 SHORTWAVE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE IN PLACE S OF FRONT TO SUPPORT SOME SVR POTENTIAL AMIDST
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT DETAILS OF
NEXT/UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THIS FRONTAL ZONE
DAY-7/27TH-28TH ARE LOST AMIDST SUBSTANTIAL MODEL VARIATION IN
TIMING/DEPTH OF THAT WAVE. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO SOON TO DELINEATE
ANY AOA-30% SVR RISK AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2010

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KVEF [210744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 210744
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1244 AM PDT THU OCT 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

0434 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE BARSTOW 34.87N 117.06W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A COCORAHS OBSERVER ESTIMATED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH FROM
A THUNDERSTORM.

0434 PM HAIL 1 SSE BARSTOW 34.87N 117.06W
10/19/2010 M1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A COCORAHS OBSERVER IN BARSTOW REPORTED HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE BROKE WINDOWS ON THEIR HOUSE. THE HAIL ALSO
SHREDDED LEAVES ON TREES.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG BARSTOW 34.88N 117.07W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL HOMES AND APARTMENTS HAD ROOF DAMAGE FROM
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN BARSTOW. TWO FENCES WERE BLOWN
DOWN. NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS WERE ALSO KNOCKED DOWN. THE
EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0800 PM HAIL 4 N DAGGETT 34.92N 116.89W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN YERMO.

0857 PM HAIL SEVEN HILLS 35.99N 115.12W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
IN THE SEVEN HILLS AREA OF HENDERSON.

0900 PM HAIL DOLAN SPRINGS 35.60N 114.27W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

HAIL OF AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE BROKE ALL WINDOWS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MOBILE HOME IN DOLAN SPRINGS.THE HAIL ALSO
DENTED THE HOOD OF A TRUCK AND BUSTED A GUTTER ON THE
MOBILE HOME. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.

0900 PM HAIL 3 S NWS LAS VEGAS 36.01N 115.19W
10/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAS VEGAS.

0945 PM LIGHTNING 5 WSW NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.23N 115.22W
10/19/2010 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A VACANT HOUSE NEAR JONES AND RANCHO IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAS VEGAS STARTING A SMALL FIRE
THAT CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE. THE EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.
SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND CAUGHT ON
FIRE THROUGHOUT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

1150 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BARSTOW
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

1154 PM HAIL 3 E BARSTOW 34.87N 117.01W
10/19/2010 M0.88 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER IN BARSTOW.
THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

1155 PM HAIL 3 ENE BARSTOW 34.89N 117.02W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A GAS STATION EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IN BARSTOW.

1243 AM HAIL BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BULLHEAD CITY BY A SPOTTER.


0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE BOULDER CITY 35.97N 114.82W
10/20/2010 M0.30 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED MINOR STREET FLOODING IN BOULDER CITY
FROM A THUNDERSTORM. THE SPOTTERS STORM TOTAL SINCE
YESTERDAY WAS 0.55 INCH AND THEY RECEIVED 0.30 INCH FROM
THIS MORNING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.14N 115.16W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED 10 INCHES TO A FOOT OF STANDING WATER
AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD AND SAHARA
AVENUE.

0145 PM HAIL 4 WSW SPRING VALLEY 36.08N 115.31W
10/20/2010 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR HUALAPAI AND
PATRICK IN SOUTHWEST LAS VEGAS ALONG WITH 0.45 INCH OF
RAIN IN JUST 8 MINUTES.

0500 PM LIGHTNING 4 SSE NELLIS AFB 36.20N 115.03W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN NORTHEAST LAS
VEGAS AND CAUSED A SMALL FIRE THAT RESULTED IN MINOR
DAMAGE TO THE APARTMENT.

0521 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 ENE DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.19N 115.05W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOWING WATER 1 FOOT DEEP AT OWENS AVE AND CHRISTY LN.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN THE STRIP 36.12N 115.18W
10/20/2010 E0.30 INCH CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED A FEW INCHES OF WATER TO FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE IMPERIAL PALACE PARKING
GARAGE.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW DOWNTOWN LAS VEGAS 36.13N 115.19W
10/20/2010 E0.40 INCH CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF STANDING WATER COLLECTED AT THE
INTERSECTION OF DESERT INN AND VALLEY VIEW BOULEVARD IN
LAS VEGAS. NUMEROUS OTHER INTERSECTIONS WERE COVERED WITH

SEVERAL INCHES OF STANDING WATER IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD ECHO BAY 36.32N 114.41W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

A CAR AND TRAILOR WERE FLOATED DOWN A WASH IN ECHO BAY BY
FLASH FLOODWATERS.DEBRIS WAS ALSO WASHED ONTO THE
NORTHSHORE ROAD BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 16. THE EVENT
TIME IS ESTIMATED.


&&
THIS IS AN UPDATED SUMMARY OF EVENTS FROM AROUND THE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210731
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION
TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS..BREAKDOWN OF WRN CONUS REX PATTERN DESCRIBED IN
DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL BE COMPLETE BY THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN
WEAKENING MID-UPPER LOW OVER NEB AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SPEED MAX
OVER SWRN CONUS. BY 24/00Z...RESULT SHOULD BE BELT OF CYCLONICALLY
CURVED/ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT FROM SRN CA/AZ ACROSS NRN MEX AND SRN NM
THEN NEWD OVER W TX...OK AND OZARKS REGION.

AT SFC...LOW SHOULD MOVE FROM NWRN KS/SWRN NEB POSITION AROUND
23/12Z ACROSS SERN NEB TO IA...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT AND NEARLY
COLLOCATED DRYLINE SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK AND
W-CENTRAL TX. MORE SPECIFIC POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ATTM...GIVEN VARIATIONS IN PROGGED SFC MASS-FIELD RESPONSE
TO SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
CHANGES.

...LOWER MO VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
ERN KS/OK AND PERHAPS NRN TX...BEHIND WHICH AIR MASS SHOULD
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM POTENTIAL DURING
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

ASIDE FROM BOUNDARY POSITIONING...MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES
EXTENT/DURATION OF POSTCONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION DURING
AFTERNOON...INFLUENCING BUOYANCY AVAILABLE IN WHAT OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MORE SLY COMPONENT OF
MOIST-SECTOR WINDS THAN DAY-2 ALSO IS EXPECTED JUST E OF
BOUNDARY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT REDUCED CONVERGENCE EXCEPT
NEAR SFC LOW...AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
SWD EXTENT. BY CONTRAST...STRONGER HEATING...RICHER MOISTURE AND
LARGER CAPE ALSO ARE FCST SWD FROM OK INTO N TX. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AGAIN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR...BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HODOGRAPHS AGAIN ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN
SIZE EWD AWAY FROM BOUNDARY AS WELL...WITH SOME VERY LARGE SRH
INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL WRF...ETA-KF AND SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS OVER
ERN OK/WRN AR/WRN MO/SERN KS.

DESPITE THESE MIXED SIGNALS IN PROGS...FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
SHOULD OVERLAP OVER MUCH OF CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/NE TX NNEWD TO
NWRN MO. PRIND AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE CONDITIONAL 15%/SLGT RISK AREA ATTM...RECOGNIZING THAT IT
MAY BE SUBJECT TO SPATIAL MODIFICATION AND/OR SMALLER ZONE OF
GREATER PROBABILITIES WITH TIME AS MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME CLEARER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2010

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 700

WWUS20 KWNS 210603
SEL0
SPC WW 210603
NMZ000-TXZ000-210600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 700 ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NEW MEXICO
TEXAS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210601
SWODY2
SPC AC 210600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY FEATURE WRN CONUS REX PATTERN...WITH
ANTICYCLONE OVER ID AND CUT-OFF CYCLONE OVER LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY/SWRN AZ. HEIGHT FALLS...AHEAD OF STG NERN PAC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW NEAR 135W...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BREAKING DOWN REX PATTERN
AND SHIFTING BOTH CYCLONE AND RIDGING ACROSS ROCKIES. BY
22/12Z...500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NERN NM...BASED ON
STG CONSENSUS OF SREF AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE
NEWD TO WRN/CENTRAL NEB BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SERN CO...WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW OVER WY. SRN LOW SHOULD
MOVE NEWD WITH UPPER CYCLONE AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
WELL-DEFINED SFC CYCLONE OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AREA BY 23/12Z.
COMBINED DRYLINE/PAC FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SSEWD/SWD FROM MAIN SFC
LOW...WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS W TX AND PANHANDLES DURING DAY. STG
ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT SEWD FROM OH VALLEY ACROSS CAROLINAS...WITH
PRONOUNCED RIDGING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. RELATED TRAJECTORIES
WILL KEEP MOISTURE RETURN PLUME SOMEWHAT NARROW IN ZONAL EXTENT OVER
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL
THIS PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 22/12Z OVER PORTIONS
OK AND PERHAPS NW TX...WITH MRGL SVR POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS/HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS OK/SRN KS DURING REMAINDER MORNING
HOURS AND WEAKEN AS SUPPORTIVE LLJ LIKEWISE DIMINISHES. MAIN SVR
THREAT SHOULD BEGIN DURING AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE/FRONT IN
ARC FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX ACROSS OK TO WRN KS...AS SECOND
ROUND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS FORMS AND MOVES NEWD. TWO
DISTINCT NODES OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT--
1. NEAR SFC AND UPPER LOWS OVER SERN CO/WRN KS...AND
2. ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE/FRONT OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX INTO
WRN/CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS.
RELATIVE MIN MAY EXIST BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES...BUT DEPENDENT ON
MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO DEPICT PROBABILISTIC MIN
ATTM.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS OVER
MOST OF CORRIDOR FROM SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL TX...BENEATH
BROAD SWATH OF 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW. LEFT-EXIT REGION OF 100-110 KT
250 MB JET MAX -- CENTERED FROM W-CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS
CHIHUAHUA...ALSO WILL SPREAD OVER AREA FROM SRN KS TO NW TX BY
23/00Z. SFC WINDS ARE FCST TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED WITH EWD
EXTENT AWAY FROM DRYLINE/FRONT...AND ALSO...WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS N
TX INTO OK IN PROXIMITY TO MODIFYING POST-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS.
THEREFORE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ON DRYLINE AND
MOVES WELL EWD INTO LARGER HODOGRAPHS...OR TSTMS THAT FORM IN WHAT
MAY BE WEAKLY CAPPED MOIST SECTOR.

THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO WELL-DEVELOPED/ANTECEDENT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND ABUNDANT PRECIP/CONVECTION
OCCURRING NOW ACROSS NM. THEREFORE...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT BE
AS STEEP AS WITH MANY SPRINGTIME SYSTEMS...EXCEPT UNDER IMMEDIATE
COLD-CORE AREA OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE. STILL...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SVR...WITH DEW POINTS 50S F NEAR
COLD-CORE REGION OF LOW ALOFT...TO 60S OVER N TX AND SRN/CENTRAL OK.
STRENGTH/DURATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
NEWD EXTENT ACROSS OK/KS...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF STABILIZATION/CLOUDS
FROM MORNING TSTMS. STILL...AT LEAST NARROW CORRIDOR OF RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF DRYLINE/FRONT AND WITHIN WRN FRINGES OF MOIST
SECTOR OVER KS/OK...SUPPORTING MLCAPE RANGING FROM 200-700 J/KG OVER
NARROW AREAS OF SWRN KS/NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OK TO ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG OVER SW TX. BECAUSE OF WEAK
CAPPING RELATE TO LACK OF ROBUST EML...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP RATHER
EARLY IN AFTERNOON AS WELL.

IN MOIST SECTOR...MAIN CONCERNS INVOLVE TIMING/MODE OF CONVECTION
AND SPECIFIC/MESOSCALE LOCATION OF THAT TRANSITION ZONE FROM
UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR TO THAT PART OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR
TOO STABLE FOR SFC-BASED SVR. THAT REGIME WILL CONSIST OF
REGIONALLY MAXIMIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
BACKED FLOW...HIGHER SRH/VORTICITY IN LOW LEVELS...AND LOWER LCL
THAN IN BETTER MIXED/HEATED AIR MASS FARTHER S. SECOND RELATIVE MAX
IN DIURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN HIGH-VORTICITY AIR MASS
BENEATH MID-UPPER LOW...NEAR SFC FRONT/TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210548
SWODY1
SPC AC 210546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
CNTRL NM...

...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX
AND SERN NM. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENSURE A REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS NM INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WHERE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 60M. AS A RESULT...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT
EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z DEEP INTO CNTRL NM. ULTIMATELY...50S SFC DEW
POINTS WILL SURGE NWWD WITHIN UPSLOPE ZONE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL TO MINUS 14-16 BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING IT APPEARS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING SFC HEATING WITHIN ELY BOUNDARY
LAYER REGIME. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE STEEPEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY BE CONFINED TO SRN NM...ARCING SEWD
ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO NRN MEXICO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE WILL BE SHARPEST ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS READINGS APPROACH
80F. IF TEMPERATURES ATTAIN THESE LEVELS SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY
EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF NM THEN DEVELOP SEWD WITHIN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TSTMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK
REGION...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS
CNTRL NM WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MOIST REGIME.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
NEAR THE DRYLINE. MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND AN EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CNTRL TX
LATE.

...NERN U.S...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PROVE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL AS MOST
PROFILES DEPICT LITTLE MORE THAN 200 J/KG MUCAPE.

..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/21/2010

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KEPZ [210417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEPZ 210417
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1016 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HAIL EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
10/20/2010 E0.75 INCH EL PASO TX AMATEUR RADIO

3/4 INCH SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT CIELO VISTA MALL.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 18 NNE WHITE SANDS MAIN 32.62N 106.37W
10/20/2010 M66.00 MPH DONA ANA NM MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST FROM WHITE SANDS MESONET OBS SITE.

0520 PM HAIL EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
10/20/2010 M1.00 INCH EL PASO TX ASOS

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED BY ASOS OBSERVER AT EL PASO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

0620 PM HAIL 8 NNE OROGRANDE 32.48N 106.03W
10/20/2010 E1.50 INCH OTERO NM OTHER FEDERAL

PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT A BORDER PATROL
CHECKPOINT ON HIGHWAY US54. SMALLER HAIL COVERED THE
GROUND AND HIGHWAY WHICH IMPEDED TRAFFIC FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME.

0650 PM HAIL HORIZON CITY 31.68N 106.19W
10/20/2010 E0.50 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

3 MINUTES OF INTENSE DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT HORIZON
BLVD AND INTERSTATE 10.


&&

$$

LUNDEEN

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