MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958

ACUS11 KWNS 211755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211754
TXZ000-NMZ000-212000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS
REGION...SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211754Z - 212000Z

THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
...AND ONE OR MORE WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ARIZONA CLOSED LOW. THIS FORCING IS GENERALLY IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY... WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING UPSTREAM NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...AND FURTHER WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.

IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE INITIATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK THROUGH THE
CHILDRESS AREA PRIOR TO 21Z...THOUGH THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD
POOL ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS REGION IS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...A SHARPENING DRY LINE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION BENEATH
GENERALLY DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP.

..KERR.. 10/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30060258 30890278 31930318 32870279 33770188 34290038
33640019 32570100 31860172 30840143 29920176 30060258

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