KALY [132038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 132038
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL GARDINER 41.68N 74.15W
09/13/2010 M0.50 INCH ULSTER NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KALY [132033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 132033
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM LIGHTNING WARRENSBURG 43.50N 73.78W
09/13/2010 WARREN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLE BURNING ON SCHROON RIVER ROAD.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE GEORGE 43.43N 73.71W
09/13/2010 WARREN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN BLOCKING LAKE SHORE DRIVE.

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KGID [132023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 132023
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0311 PM HAIL ALEXANDRIA 40.25N 97.39W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH THAYER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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KALY [132019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 132019
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL TACONIC 42.04N 73.41W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH LITCHFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KALY [132018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 132018
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM HAIL ACCORD 41.79N 74.23W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH ULSTER NY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KALY [132017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 132017
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG ACCORD 41.79N 74.23W
09/13/2010 ULSTER NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KBGM [132009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 132009
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL SCRANTON 41.40N 75.67W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBUF [132006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 132006
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 2 N GREECE 43.24N 77.70W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

KAPFFEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1818

ACUS11 KWNS 132003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132003
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...SE NY...NE PA...NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...

VALID 132003Z - 132130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655
CONTINUES.

A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 655. THE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NEW
YORK CITY AREA AROUND 22Z TO 23Z.

A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SE NY AND NE PA
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND VERY
NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND AIDING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED DISCRETE. THIS FACTOR ALONG COLD AIR ALOFT AND 50 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS CAN BECOME MORE LINEAR.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41147102 40527343 40257515 40987671 41927717 42587661
43427513 43387241 42307087 41147102

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KBGM [132003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 132003
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM HAIL GIBSON 41.80N 75.65W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0339 PM HAIL HONESDALE 41.58N 75.25W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH WAYNE PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 132001
SWODY1
SPC AC 131959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NY INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR HILL
CITY KS EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. SECONDARY E-W
FRONT DEMARCATING THE MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL NEB
INTO SWRN IA AND NERN MO. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH WRN KS. IN ADDITION TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES A N-S
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS N-CNTRL KS JUST W OF
CONCORDIA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING. WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE FROM N-CNTRL KS THROUGH S-CNTRL NEB
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB WITH
FORCING FOR DEEPER ASCENT POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY A VORT MAX MOVING
EWD THROUGH NERN CO AND WRN NEB. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HODOGRAPHS SIZE WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
WITH A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE
INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

...NERN STATE...

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY WITH CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVING SEWD THROUGH SERN NY INTO
NERN PA AND NRN NY. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS VORT MAX
MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 09/13/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010/

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SWRN NEW
ENGLAND...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SWWD TO S OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY OF UPSTATE NY. GIVEN THE NOTABLE UPSTREAM COOLING
OBSERVED BY 12Z BUF SOUNDING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION FROM CNTRL NY EWD/SEWD THROUGH
ALB AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
EXPERIENCING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. HERE...THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG AND STRENGTHENING DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...

15Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW N OF HLC WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER INTO NRN MO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED
FROM THIS LOW NWWD THROUGH WRN NEB TO A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER
ERN MT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A ZONE
NEAR OR N OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT. HERE...THE
COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT SOME BACKGROUND FORCING WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BY: 1)
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND 2) THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CRESTING RIDGE AXIS OVER WY/CO.
AS SUCH...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO FORM
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEB INTO NRN KS.
GIVEN PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL AND
35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY 14/00Z WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS OWING TO
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS TONIGHT OVER THE
MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AS LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FORCING INCREASES IN EXIT
REGION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORM CLUSTERS.

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KBGM [131955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131955
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
355 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM HAIL CLARKS SUMMIT 41.49N 75.71W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

REPORT WAS FOR 10 MINUTES OF WALNUT SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

MJN

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KALY [131954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 131954
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM TSTM WND DMG DIAMOND POINT 43.48N 73.69W
09/13/2010 WARREN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KDMX [131944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 131944
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
243 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 PM HAIL DOW CITY 41.93N 95.49W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH CRAWFORD IA POST OFFICE

DIME TO QUARTER HAIL...PARTIALLY COVERING GROUND.

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 656

WWUS20 KWNS 131943
SEL6
SPC WW 131943
IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW NW OF
HLC EWD ALONG EITHER SIDE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING A
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000+
J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND AS A SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 30+ KT TOWARD
14/00Z...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ACCORDING STRENGTHEN. AS SUCH...THE
INITIAL HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

...MEAD

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KALY [131940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 131940
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 3 W HARDENBURG 42.00N 74.73W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH ULSTER NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PING PONG TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN
BEAVERKILL.

&&

$$

TWASULA/RGANGAT

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KBGM [131939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131939
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HAIL HONESDALE 41.58N 75.25W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH WAYNE PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KDMX [131933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 131933
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
233 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 3 NNW DOW CITY 41.96N 95.52W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SMALL

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KOUN [131932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 131932
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S ETOWAH 35.10N 97.17W
09/13/2010 CLEVELAND OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER OVER 180TH BETWEEN BANNER ROAD AND SLAUGHTERVILLE
ROAD

&&

$$

RHLUCHAN

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KBGM [131931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131931
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 PM HAIL GIBSON 41.80N 75.65W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBUF [131914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 131914
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL NORTH GREECE 43.25N 77.73W
09/13/2010 E0.50 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

CFISHER

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KBGM [131912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131912
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM HAIL OTEGO 42.39N 75.18W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH OTSEGO NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 131905
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL VESTAL CENTER 42.03N 76.02W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH BROOME NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0153 PM HAIL FRANKLIN 42.34N 75.17W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

HAIL SIZE FROM 3/8 TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER

0201 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0207 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME SIZED HAIL

0210 PM HAIL DELHI 42.28N 74.91W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL 5 W NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.82W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0218 PM HAIL APALACHIN 42.07N 76.17W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0232 PM HAIL ANDES 42.19N 74.78W
09/13/2010 E1.25 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

0236 PM HAIL THOMPSON 41.86N 75.51W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA AMATEUR RADIO

0250 PM HAIL 4 SSW RUSH 41.73N 76.09W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

BLUEBERRY HAVEN GROCERY STORE REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL
THAT LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES AND IS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

HEDEN

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KBGM [131902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131902
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 5 W NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.82W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0232 PM HAIL ANDES 42.19N 74.78W
09/13/2010 E1.25 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

0236 PM HAIL THOMPSON 41.86N 75.51W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

MJN

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KBTV [131900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 131900
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM HAIL TICONDEROGA 43.85N 73.43W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH ESSEX NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM HAIL BRANDON 43.80N 73.09W
09/13/2010 E0.25 INCH RUTLAND VT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BROOKET

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1817

ACUS11 KWNS 131838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131838
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB...N-CNTRL AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131838Z - 131945Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW THAT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR
HLC...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAS
RESULTED IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE W. THE
CURRENT FAVORED SCENARIO IS THAT DISCRETE CELLS MAY FORM ALONG/NEAR
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL
TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO EXIST. COLD MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A SUBTLE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CNTRL CO/ MAY LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A GREATER
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY EVOLVING.

..ROGERS.. 09/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...

LAT...LON 38649841 38879899 39379924 40569972 41129923 41419832
41349719 40989615 40569566 39929549 39179581 38579643
38649841

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KBGM [131834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131834
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBGM 131829
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL VESTAL CENTER 42.03N 76.02W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0226 PM HAIL TIOGA TERRACE 42.05N 76.12W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

PENNY AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING YARD

&&

$$

JAK

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KBGM [131828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131828
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131824
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL DELHI 42.28N 74.91W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131820
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 PM HAIL APALACHIN 42.07N 76.17W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131814
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM HAIL FRANKLIN 42.34N 75.17W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

HAIL SIZE FROM 3/8 TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131811
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131810
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MJN

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KBGM [131747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131747
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL VESTAL CENTER 42.03N 76.02W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

JAK

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KBGM [131742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 131742
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL VESTAL CENTER 42.03N 76.02W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH BROOME NY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MJN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 655

WWUS20 KWNS 131740
SEL5
SPC WW 131740
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-140000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ITHACA NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF WESTFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR BGM ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK.
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY HOT OR MOIST...THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING DEEP
NWLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.

...MEAD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131717
SWODY2
SPC AC 131716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS
OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. MESOSCALE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME WILL MODULATE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL RESIDE FROM WI SEWD THROUGH NEB INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND KY. LEE TROUGH OR DRY-LINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN
THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN CNTRL PLAINS WARM SECTOR BENEATH PLUME OF EWD ADVECTING
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. MCS WILL BE
ONGOING TUESDAY FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
RESULTING FROM SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SUBSIDES AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING STORMS
WILL ACT TO REINFORCE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEB INTO NRN KS. IN WAKE
OF LEAD IMPULSE...WEAK FORCING...RIDGING ALOFT AND LIKELIHOOD OF A
CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EWD THE ADVECTING EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF DAY. STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING AND DEEPER MIXING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EWD. OTHER
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY COULD GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 09/13/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816

ACUS11 KWNS 131651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131651
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NE PA...NRN NJ...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131651Z - 131815Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN
CNTRL AND NRN NY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ADIRONDACK MTNS
OF NRN NY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.
THIS CONVECTION IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
ACTIVITY IN SRN NY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE INTENSE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SERN NY WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING. IN
ADDITION...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 75 MID-LEVEL JET IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE MCD AREA WHICH
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFT AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -17C TO -19C RANGE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS EVIDENT ON THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE
INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 40617359 40687518 41247661 41987693 42757668 43197616
43817484 43937362 43587293 43057266 42447265 41587280
40617359

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131625
SWODY1
SPC AC 131623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
FROM PARTS OF UPSTATE NY INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID
MO VALLEY...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SWRN NEW
ENGLAND...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SWWD TO S OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY OF UPSTATE NY. GIVEN THE NOTABLE UPSTREAM COOLING
OBSERVED BY 12Z BUF SOUNDING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION FROM CNTRL NY EWD/SEWD THROUGH
ALB AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
EXPERIENCING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. HERE...THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG AND STRENGTHENING DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...

15Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW N OF HLC WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER INTO NRN MO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED
FROM THIS LOW NWWD THROUGH WRN NEB TO A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER
ERN MT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A ZONE
NEAR OR N OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT. HERE...THE
COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT SOME BACKGROUND FORCING WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BY: 1)
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND 2) THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CRESTING RIDGE AXIS OVER WY/CO.
AS SUCH...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO FORM
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEB INTO NRN KS.
GIVEN PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL AND
35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY 14/00Z WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS OWING TO
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS TONIGHT OVER THE
MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AS LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FORCING INCREASES IN EXIT
REGION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORM CLUSTERS.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/13/2010

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KJKL [131506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 131506
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE IRVINE 37.75N 83.94W
09/11/2010 ESTILL KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN ON WHITE OAK ROAD.

&&

$$

GEOGERIAN

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KOHX [131443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 131443
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE SMYRNA 36.01N 86.50W
09/11/2010 RUTHERFORD TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN AROUND THE WEAKLEY ROAD/ BENT
TREE SUBDIVISION AREA.

&&

$$

BW

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KJAX [131428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131428
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1028 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.32N 81.41W
09/12/2010 DUVAL FL UTILITY COMPANY

UTILITY COMPANY REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN IN THE
JACKSONVILLE BEACH AREA.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KOHX [131410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 131410
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
910 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S FRANKLIN 35.87N 86.84W
09/11/2010 WILLIAMSON TN NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN IN THE GREEN VALLEY SUBDIVISION

&&

$$

MRICHARD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE MODERATELY FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AFFECTS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY...LEADING TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/SD. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
DURING PEAK HEATING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES FORCING.

...NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER LOWER MI/SOUTHERN ONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NY TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP TO YIELD POCKETS
OF MODEST INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF AROUND
500 J/KG. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
NOW NEAR BUF WILL BE MAINTAINED AT TRACK ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/13/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130858
SWOD48
SPC AC 130857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...A NEARLY ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE
SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL BE PREVALENT INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY ON
DAY 4/THURSDAY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHER
SEVERE TSTMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST BY AROUND DAYS 5 AND/OR 6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
AGAIN...PREDICTABILITY/POTENTIAL IS LIMITED WITHIN A LARGELY
ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE REGIME.

..GUYER.. 09/13/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130731
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
RELATIVELY FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...MAY AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE AS IT STEADILY PROGRESSES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UNKNOWNS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...MAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT
OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...PROVIDES SOME SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXTENT OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/ADVANCING SPEED MAX...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY
NEAR A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT/AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WOULD PERHAPS INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO. WITH A FAVORABLE
COLLOCATION OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD /EAST/ OF THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
RISK...MAY FORM WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/PERHAPS PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHWEST TX BY EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/13/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130601
SWODY2
SPC AC 130600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATELY STRONG/NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
DIGGING/AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
STATES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS VICINITY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
LITTLE AS IT EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY VICINITY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A ROUGHLY
WNW-ESE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD YET
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL INTO TUESDAY...BUT A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET
WOULD IMPLY ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT AT BEST AS STORMS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AMIDST A MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. WHILE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED...SOME SEVERE THREAT /MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK.

OTHERWISE...WEST/NORTHWEST OF THESE EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...IT
APPEARS AS IF MUCH OF THE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS MAY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE CINH WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...A RESIDUAL
WARM LAYER ALOFT /OWING TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ AND MODEST MASS
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CURB THE LIKELIHOOD AND/OR THE EXTENT OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AS MASS FIELDS
OTHERWISE BEGIN TO RESPOND TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AS ONE OR MORE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS ALOFT APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS SUCH...THE PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
/AND TIMING THEREOF/ ARE QUESTIONABLE ACROSS NEB/NORTHERN KS IN
SPITE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.

THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RELAX WITH
SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE OTHERWISE RETREATING WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN EARNEST AFTER DARK ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...AS
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES/HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AHEAD
OF A SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

..GUYER.. 09/13/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130556
SWODY1
SPC AC 130554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NRN KS...CNTRL AND ERN
NEB...FAR SERN SD AND WRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NY
AS WELL AS SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WITH VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NERN U.S. WHILE A 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX NOSES INTO
PA/NJ BY 00Z. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE W...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ON THE W SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
NWD BENEATH A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF KS AND NEB.

...KS/NEB/SD/IA...
WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS AND OK EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. DURING THE
DAY...MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD INTO KS AND
NEB...WITH STRONG HEATING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK WITH TIME AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE WEAK...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL EXIST...AS WILL STRONG INSTABILITY WITH NO CIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERE STORMS MAY ERUPT ANYWHERE FROM
CNTRL/NWRN KS INTO SWRN AND CNTRL NEB ONCE CIN IS ERODED. LONG
HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AFTER 00Z...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S TO
25-35 KT...AND WILL SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY AS WELL AS NEW ACTIVITY
FARTHER N WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE SRN
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH ENHANCED WIND
THREAT...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT WITH THE NRN ACTIVITY.

...NY INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR WRN NY/NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO AT 12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND UPPER VORT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT DEVELOPS EWD AND
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FURTHER. VERY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AREAS OF HEATING TO PRODUCE A STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
HELP MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION...WHILE FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE FAVORS STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL/SMITH.. 09/13/2010

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KDVN [130404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 130404
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1104 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 5 N BELLEVUE 42.33N 90.43W
09/12/2010 E0.25 INCH JACKSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TIME ESTIMATED

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N BELLEVUE 42.33N 90.43W
09/12/2010 JACKSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

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