SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131838
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB...N-CNTRL AND NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131838Z - 131945Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW THAT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR
HLC...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAS
RESULTED IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE W. THE
CURRENT FAVORED SCENARIO IS THAT DISCRETE CELLS MAY FORM ALONG/NEAR
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL
TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO EXIST. COLD MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A SUBTLE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CNTRL CO/ MAY LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A GREATER
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY EVOLVING.
..ROGERS.. 09/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
LAT...LON 38649841 38879899 39379924 40569972 41129923 41419832
41349719 40989615 40569566 39929549 39179581 38579643
38649841
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment