DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010059
SWODY1
SPC AC 010057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED E OF FL /N OF THE BAHAMAS/...WITH A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NWD INTO FAR ERN NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS
EWD...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF NC AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH.
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO ERN
NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION/ AS ALREADY OBSERVED PER REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND AND
CONFINE ANY TSTM POTENTIAL TO COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SERN VA.

A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MODELS SHOW RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND AN
INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE DE-AMPLIFYING
TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A FEW STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN ID/NWRN WY YET THIS
EVENING...WHERE SUFFICIENT ASCENT DUE TO 1/ ENTRANCE REGION OF A
MIDLEVEL JET...2/ SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND 3/ FORCING ALONG A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

...S FL...
FRONTAL BAND MOVING S OF THE FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
NO TSTM THREAT OVER FAR S FL TONIGHT.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS REDUCED SBCAPE/LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TSTM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

..PETERS.. 11/01/2011

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KILN [312224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 312224
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL NEWARK 40.07N 82.42W
10/31/2011 E0.50 INCH LICKING OH PUBLIC

&&

$$

HATZOS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311937
SWODY1
SPC AC 311935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

HAVE REINTRODUCED A SMALL GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR PARTS OF OH...AS
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NWRN OH. ANY TSTM THREAT
HERE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY 00Z WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED GENERAL TSTM LINE IN FL TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COLD FRONT POSITION. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
VALID.

..GRAMS.. 10/31/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY...WITH A LOBE
EXTENDING SWD TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SE GULF
ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ IS LOCATED S OF THE FRONT
IN FL...WHERE A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING.
MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW EVIDENCE
OF THE SURFACE WAVE FORMATION JUST OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST...AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS S FL AS THE WAVE
MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM FL. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS
AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 35-40 F COULD SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 100 J/KG...AND SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN OH IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE
REINTRODUCTION OF A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE SOME BY THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NC AS THE OH VALLEY TROUGH ENCOUNTERS THE
NW EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.

FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR WEAK MIDLEVEL CONVECTION
TONIGHT FROM NRN NV INTO NW UT. HERE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN E-W PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. STILL...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AOB 100 J PER KG/ WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN OUTLOOK
AREA.

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KKEY [311851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 311851
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
251 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/31/2011 M41 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS OR 41 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE
MOLASSES REEF C-MAN STATION PLATFORM WITH A PASSING BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KOKX [311738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 311738
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG STAMFORD 41.02N 73.56W
10/29/2011 FAIRFIELD CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. POWER LINES
ALSO DOWN.

0143 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITE PLAINS 41.02N 73.76W
10/29/2011 WESTCHESTER NY TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ON ANDERSON HILL ROAD. ROAD
PARTIALLY BLOCKED.

0149 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH ARLINGTON 40.79N 74.13W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON RIDGE ROAD AND CRYSTAL STREET

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH ARLINGTON 40.79N 74.13W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON MORGAN PLACE

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON 40.74N 74.15W
10/29/2011 HUDSON NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE BRANCH ON CARS ON GRANT AVENUE. ROAD CLOSED.
REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION 40.70N 74.27W
10/29/2011 UNION NJ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE DOWN ON CAR ACROSS ROUTE 22 EAST AT GARDEN STATE
PARKWAY.

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON 40.74N 74.15W
10/29/2011 HUDSON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON CLEVELAND AVENUE.

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PARK RIDGE 41.04N 74.04W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND POPPING TRANSFORMER

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW SANDS POINT 40.88N 73.74W
10/29/2011 M58 MPH ANZ335 NY BUOY

50.5 KT WIND GUST AT EXECUTION ROCKS BUOY

0235 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PARAMUS 40.95N 74.07W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIRES DOWN ON PARAMUS RD AT MORNINGSIDE

0241 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD 40.98N 74.11W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

MAPLE AT ACKERMAN CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND
POWERLINES

0244 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MOUNTAINSIDE 40.68N 74.36W
10/29/2011 UNION NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALL LANES CLOSED US 22 EASTBOUND AT MOUNTAIN AVE DUE TO
DOWNED TREE

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG VERNON PARK 40.91N 73.82W
10/29/2011 WESTCHESTER NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG VALHALLA 41.07N 73.78W
10/29/2011 WESTCHESTER NY PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0308 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIZABETH 40.67N 74.19W
10/29/2011 UNION NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON NJ 439 SOUTHBOUND AT CR 623. ALL LANES
CLOSED.

0316 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BREWSTER 41.40N 73.62W
10/29/2011 PUTNAM NY TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0323 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWTOWN 41.41N 73.32W
10/29/2011 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW AND WIND CAUSING NUMEROUS TREES TO FALL.

0327 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW CITY 41.15N 73.99W
10/29/2011 ROCKLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

DOWNED TREES BLOCKING LANES ON ROUTE 304 AT BARDONIA
AND GERMONDS

0336 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK 40.99N 74.14W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ PUBLIC

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MAMARONECK 40.93N 73.73W
10/29/2011 WESTCHESTER NY PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BELLEVILLE 40.79N 74.16W
10/29/2011 ESSEX NJ PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG POMONA 41.19N 74.05W
10/29/2011 ROCKLAND NY EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HAWTHORNE 40.96N 74.16W
10/29/2011 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES DOWN ON WIRES ON WASHINGTON AVENUE.

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WOLCOTT 41.61N 72.98W
10/29/2011 NEW HAVEN CT EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** PERSON STRUCK BY TREE WHILE WALKING
OUTSIDE

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 40.70N 74.33W
10/29/2011 UNION NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE EXITS ALONG I-78 IN UNION COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO
TREES DOWN

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PALISADES PARK 40.85N 74.00W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

NJ 93 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT CR 501 IN PALISADES
PARK AND AT CR 56 IN LEONIA DUE TO FALLEN TREES

0417 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS 40.88N 73.95W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

WIRES DOWN ACROSS US 9W IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. ALL LANES
CLOSED.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
10/29/2011 FAIRFIELD CT EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO HOMES DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAYNE 40.95N 74.25W
10/29/2011 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TALLMAN 41.11N 74.10W
10/29/2011 ROCKLAND NY PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0448 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WARWICK 41.26N 74.36W
10/29/2011 ORANGE NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0450 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLOOMING GROVE 41.41N 74.20W
10/29/2011 ORANGE NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON VILLAGE ROAD. NO INJURIES.

0458 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEYMOUR 41.40N 73.06W
10/29/2011 NEW HAVEN CT PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

0504 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SHERMAN 41.58N 73.50W
10/29/2011 FAIRFIELD CT PUBLIC

LANES BLOCKED ON ROUTE 39 NEAR HUBBLE MTN RD DUE TO
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES

0505 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MINEOLA 40.75N 73.64W
10/29/2011 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN AT JACKSON AVENUE AND WARDWELL AVENUE.

0527 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SLATE HILL 41.39N 74.48W
10/29/2011 ORANGE NY TRAINED SPOTTER

RIDGEBURY ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN COUNTRY ROAD 12 AND
GREEVES ROAD DUE TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES. EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSED FOR 12 TO 16 HOURS ACCORDING TO LOCAL FIRE
DEPARTMENT.

0531 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW HAVEN 41.31N 72.92W
10/29/2011 NEW HAVEN CT PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT PINE AND FERRY

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CENTRAL PARK 40.80N 73.96W
10/29/2011 NEW YORK (MANHATTA NY EMERGENCY MNGR

THOUSANDS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN IN CENTRAL PARK.

0613 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DURHAM 41.47N 72.68W
10/29/2011 MIDDLESEX CT PUBLIC

ROUTE 17 NEAR DINATALE RD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST MILFORD 41.11N 74.40W
10/29/2011 PASSAIC NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON NJ 23 NORTHBOUND AT CR 295. ALL LANES
CLOSED.

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG COLCHESTER 41.57N 72.33W
10/29/2011 NEW LONDON CT PUBLIC

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 16 BETWEEN BIGILOW AND
WATERHOLE RDS

0820 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE ON HOUSE ON WOODLAND AVENUE.

0821 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
10/29/2011 BERGEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

THREE CARS DAMAGED DUE TO FALLING TREES.

0829 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CEDAR GROVE 40.86N 74.23W
10/29/2011 ESSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

WIRES DOWN ON NJ 23 AT CR 617 IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. ALL
LANES CLOSED.

0830 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON 40.74N 74.15W
10/29/2011 HUDSON NJ PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN.

1001 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH CALDWELL 40.86N 74.26W
10/29/2011 ESSEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN OF
NORTH CALDWELL.

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MERIDEN 41.54N 72.80W
10/29/2011 NEW HAVEN CT TRAINED SPOTTER

MANY TREE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN ON BRIAR LANE IN
MERIDEN.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOSHEN 41.40N 74.33W
10/29/2011 ORANGE NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON GOOD TIME COURT IN GOSHEN.

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOMERS 41.33N 73.69W
10/29/2011 WESTCHESTER NY PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN SOMERS

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST ORANGE 40.79N 74.26W
10/29/2011 ESSEX NJ PUBLIC

TRESS AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN.

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG STATEN ISLAND 40.58N 74.15W
10/30/2011 RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON BARD AVENUE BETWEEN CLOVE ROAD
AND FOREST AVENUE. DOWNED POWER LINES ON VICTORY BLVD
BETWEEN I-278 AND BARD AVENUE.

1205 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 41.20N 72.12W
10/30/2011 M56 MPH ANZ330 NY MESONET

48.7 KT WIND GUST

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MONROE 41.36N 73.20W
10/30/2011 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

DOZENS OF LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILLBURN 40.74N 74.32W
10/30/2011 ESSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON NJ 124 WESTBOUND AT LAKEVIEW AVE. ALL
LANES CLOSED.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BABYLON 40.72N 73.32W
10/30/2011 SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON SYLVAN ROAD

1041 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MAHOPAC 41.37N 73.74W
10/30/2011 PUTNAM NY TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHS AND LIMBS DOWN
ACROSS THE TOWN.

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSELAND 40.82N 74.31W
10/30/2011 ESSEX NJ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** TREE BRANCH FELL ON CHILD ON EVELYN ROAD

&&

$$

JM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311631
SWODY2
SPC AC 311630

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES
BAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EFFECTIVELY AMPLIFY
A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY
EARLY WED. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED INVOF THE OK
PANHANDLE TUE EVENING ON TRAILING PORTION OF THE PLAINS FRONT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE MEAGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 40S TUE EVENING/NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING EWD OVERNIGHT.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED IN BOTH AMPLITUDE /AOB 250 J PER KG/ AND SPATIAL EXTENT
/CENTERED OVER NRN KS AND SRN NEB/. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW
ELEVATED TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME TUE NIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 10/31/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311613
SWODY1
SPC AC 311611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY...WITH A LOBE
EXTENDING SWD TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SE GULF
ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ IS LOCATED S OF THE FRONT
IN FL...WHERE A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING.
MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW EVIDENCE
OF THE SURFACE WAVE FORMATION JUST OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST...AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS S FL AS THE WAVE
MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM FL. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS
AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 35-40 F COULD SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 100 J/KG...AND SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN OH IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE
REINTRODUCTION OF A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE SOME BY THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NC AS THE OH VALLEY TROUGH ENCOUNTERS THE
NW EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.

FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR WEAK MIDLEVEL CONVECTION
TONIGHT FROM NRN NV INTO NW UT. HERE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN E-W PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. STILL...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AOB 100 J PER KG/ WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN OUTLOOK
AREA.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 10/31/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311244
SWODY1
SPC AC 311242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
SEWD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER S FL
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT TO OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
MORE ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES WITH ARRIVAL OF ABOVE-MENTIONED JET STREAK AND MIDLEVEL
TROUGH.

...FL...

ERN SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM S OF APF-VRB MAY STILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW. AREA VAD DATA AND 12Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WHICH IS COLOCATED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS FOSTERED A
NUMBER OF QUASI-STATIONARY ROTATING STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
NAMELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE E-CNTRL AND SERN PENINSULA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 18Z WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD BEGINS TO VEER
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...A
LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST WILL EXIST THIS MORNING.

...ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT INVOF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. GREATER INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF A
DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST LIGHTNING THREAT.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/31/2011

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KMFL [310749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 310749
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 AM HEAVY RAIN OAKLAND PARK 26.17N 80.14W
10/31/2011 M6.11 INCH BROWARD FL MESONET

A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT RAIN GUAGE RECORDED 6.11
INCHES OF RAIN IN OAKLAND PARK. ALTHOUGH THIS TOTAL IS
SINCE 7 AM SUNDAY, MOST OF THIS RAIN OCCURRED IN THE PAST
TWO HOURS.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310741
SWOD48
SPC AC 310740

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE D4-8 PERIOD.
BEGINNING ON D4/THU...AN INITIAL UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRI MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ATOP A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...AND THUS...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS
DESPITE STRONG FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL DIG SWD OVER THE WRN STATES ON FRI/D5...AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

BECAUSE THIS SECOND TROUGH IS ARRIVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR QUALITY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE
A SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE...WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND AN INTENSE JET MAX
ALOFT...MODELS INDICATE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...THE NEW GFS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF SHOW
ALMOST NO INSTABILITY AT ALL OVER THE WARM SECTOR. SO DESPITE VERY
STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS ERN TX...AND WILL SURGE BACK NWWD AS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF ANOTHER WRN TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS REGIME FROM TX INTO OK AND KS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 10/31/2011

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KMFL [310738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 310738
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 AM FLOOD FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.15W
10/31/2011 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE REPORTS
NUMEROUS FLOODED HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE CITY OF FORT
LAUDERDALE. THEY ARE OPENING UP SHELTERS.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2282

ACUS11 KWNS 310710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310709
FLZ000-310945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310709Z - 310945Z

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER SERN FL AND KEYS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NWD ALONG E COAST FROM NERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
THROUGH FLL-PBI AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER...ESPECIALLY INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
AS OUTLINED BELOW. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND
DOWNDRAFT PRECIP LOADING MAY YIELD LOCALLY STG GUSTS. HOWEVER
THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS REGIONAL SEGMENT OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
DRIFTING NWD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS WARM FRONT.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK MESOLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
FRONT WITHIN EYW-APF-MIA TRIANGLE BEFORE 12Z. SUBTLE FRONTAL-WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO VARIOUS EXTENTS BY OPERATIONAL
NAM/RUC/SPECTRAL IN RESPONSE TO APCH OF SRN FRINGES OF TROUGHING NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
N-CENTRAL GULF. GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR FRONT
WHERE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY BACKED...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
INLAND FROM COAST...WHERE FRICTIONAL SFC REDUCTIONS ELONGATE 0-1 KM
AGL SHEAR VECTORS. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN FCST
SOUNDINGS IN MIA-PBI CORRIDOR. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL
FLOW...BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR COASTAL FRONTAL SEGMENT. GREATEST
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN S OF FRONT AND OVER ATLANTIC/STRAITS WATERS
WHERE MARINE HEAT FLUXES DOMINATE. MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE FROM
AROUND 250 J/KG JUST N OF FRONT TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER STRAITS/FL
BAY/GLADES N OF SRN CONVECTIVE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY 2-4 INCHES/HOUR ALSO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...PER REASONING OFFERED IN
EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS REGIME.

..EDWARDS.. 10/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 25898063 26148037 26768025 27058009 26768002 26378007
25888011 25648017 25738022 25618028 25898063

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KKEY [310619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310619
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
219 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 AM TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/31/2011 M39.00 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS WAS REPORTED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT C-MAN STATION.

&&

$$

11

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310534
SWODY3
SPC AC 310533

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON
WED...WITH ONE STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
MS/OH VALLEY...AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY THU
MORNING.

THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL MAKE FOR POOR
RETURN MOISTURE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE FIRST TROUGH. STRONG
LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES TO A CNTRL TX TO
CNTRL IL LINE BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY...BUT HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER ERN
KS...NERN OK...AND INTO WRN MO WITH NO SEVERE THREAT. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

TO THE W...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WA/ORE AND NRN CA
COASTS FROM N TO S AFTER 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK
HERE...WITH ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL.. 10/31/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310525
SWODY1
SPC AC 310523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z TODAY
WILL MOVE E REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY
01/00Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE
WEST...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN-SRN CANADA
AND INTO THE NWRN STATES WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY 12Z TUESDAY EXTENDING FROM NRN NV/ORE TO CENTRAL CANADA.

...FL PENINSULA...
A SURFACE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS FAR S FL WILL MOVE NWD TODAY...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL-SERN
FL COASTAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE OH/TN
VALLEYS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES. DESPITE RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST VALUES
EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

...UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SWD THROUGH IND TO THE MID
SOUTH AND E TX AT 12Z TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING
TREND AS IT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SURFACE HEATING
BENEATH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN LOWER
MI...ERN IND...NRN KY AND MUCH OF OH. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

...FAR ERN NC AND FAR SERN VA...
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH APPROACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL WAA INTO ERN NC/SERN VA ALONG THE
W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW...COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL JET
SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

..PETERS/COHEN.. 10/31/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310508
SWODY2
SPC AC 310507

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE NERN STATES ON TUE...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND...ENCOMPASSING THE ERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS WITH DRY AIR.

TO THE W...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD WED MORNING.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER SERN CO...WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO IA AT 00Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH....SURGING SWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE BY WED MORNING.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE MEAGER
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S F FROM N TX INTO KS.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND THE FRONT DEEPENS...A BAND OF RAIN
WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL...EXTENDING FROM NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AND NRN KS. WITH SUCH
WEAK INSTABILITY...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE...BUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 10/31/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2281

ACUS11 KWNS 310435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310435
FLZ000-310630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SERN FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
MIAMI AREA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 310435Z - 310630Z

RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE SERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE MIAMI
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM CORAL GABLES AND COCONUT GROVE TOWARD
DOWNTOWN MIAMI AND MIAMI BEACH...AS WELL AS KEY BISCAYNE.

TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR FROM MIAMI INDICATES A VERY
PERSISTENT...10-15-MILE-WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER BISCAYNE BAY
NEAR CORAL GABLES AND COCONUT GROVE. THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EWD
NUDGE AFTER HAVING DEVELOPED A BROAD MID-LEVEL STORM-SCALE
CIRCULATION /FURTHER SUSTAINING CONVECTION/. SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 04Z
INDICATES THAT THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ANCHORED TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA. PER MIAMI 00Z RAOB...ELY INFLOW OF 20-25 KT WITHIN THE
925-850-MB LAYER OPPOSING THE WLY COMPONENT OF FLOW DEEPER IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS CURRENTLY LIMITING STORM MOTION.
HOWEVER...NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE 925-850-MB
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SE/S DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE
TOWARD PARTS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI...MIAMI BEACH...AND KEY BISCAYNE.
WITH THE 00Z MIAMI RAOB INDICATING A NEARLY 4.5-KM DEEP WARM-CLOUD
LAYER...COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES WITHIN ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA/ WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 IN/HR. FARTHER NORTH INTO BROWARD
COUNTY...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION NEAR WESTON AND FORT LAUDERDALE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING FASTER
STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WHILE CONVECTION MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL GREATLY MITIGATE THE SVR
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN.. 10/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON 25518015 25598033 25898041 26018060 26228054 26258027
26168006 25648003 25518015

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