SWODY1
SPC AC 010057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FAR ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED E OF FL /N OF THE BAHAMAS/...WITH A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NWD INTO FAR ERN NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS
EWD...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF NC AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH.
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO ERN
NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION/ AS ALREADY OBSERVED PER REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND AND
CONFINE ANY TSTM POTENTIAL TO COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SERN VA.
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MODELS SHOW RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND AN
INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE DE-AMPLIFYING
TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.
...NRN ROCKIES...
A FEW STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN ID/NWRN WY YET THIS
EVENING...WHERE SUFFICIENT ASCENT DUE TO 1/ ENTRANCE REGION OF A
MIDLEVEL JET...2/ SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND 3/ FORCING ALONG A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
...S FL...
FRONTAL BAND MOVING S OF THE FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
NO TSTM THREAT OVER FAR S FL TONIGHT.
...UPPER OH VALLEY...
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS REDUCED SBCAPE/LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TSTM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 11/01/2011
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