Saturday, December 10, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN THROUGH S-CNTRL TX...

VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX WILL CONTINUE
EWD TONIGHT. DEEP ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN TX ALONG WRN EDGE OF A BROADER
RAIN SHIELD AS IT INTERACTED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AS THE IMPULSE ADVANCES INTO SRN TX.
THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CORRIDOR
FROM LAREDO TO DEL RIO...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.


...SRN FL...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. THE 00Z MIAMI AND
TAMPA RAOBS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF VERY SKINNY CAPE FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE TO 250 MB. HOWEVER...MODEST CAPPING INVERSIONS WERE EVIDENT
NEAR 850 MB ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING AND AT 700 MB ON THE TAMPA RAOB.
WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND APPARENT LACK OF A SOURCE FOR
DEEPER ASCENT...IT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR PARCELS
TOO BREACH THESE INVERSIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHALLOW...THOUGH VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..DIAL.. 12/11/2011

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KSGX [110029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 110029
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
427 PM PST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW CUYAMACA PEAK 32.94N 116.63W
12/06/2011 M65.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

BOCSD BOULDER CREEK MESONET

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CUYAMACA PEAK 32.93N 116.53W
12/06/2011 M56.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

CUYAMACA STATE PARK MESONET SITE LFRSD LUCKY FIVE

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CUYAMACA PEAK 32.98N 116.67W
12/06/2011 M58.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

NORTH BOULDER CREEK MESONET SITE NBCSD

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW JULIAN 33.11N 116.68W
12/06/2011 M52.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

SANTA YSABEL RAWS

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 SSW MOUNT LAGUNA 32.76N 116.49W
12/06/2011 M58.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

BUCKMAN SPRINGS MESONET SITE BMSSD ON INTERSTATE 8 SOUTH
OF PINE VALLEY


&&

$$

ATARDY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101956
SWODY1
SPC AC 101954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z IS TO MOVE THE THUNDER LINE IN
CNTRL FL ABOUT 50 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WAS
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DESTABILIZATION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 12/10/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

...SRN FL...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ERN/SRN FL OVER THE
PAST 24-HRS WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE 1300-1600 J PER KG/. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE E COAST AND SWWD INTO SRN FL IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AMIDST LOCAL SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY CONFINED ACROSS
SW/SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER THAN FARTHER N. NO SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

...BIG BEND REGION AND PARTS OF S TX...
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SOUTH TX...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE BIG BEND REGION AND
PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101714
SWODY2
SPC AC 101713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ERN SEABOARD AND MS VALLEY SUNDAY KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS FL. ELY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ERN FL WILL HELP ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH ALONG WITH DESTABILIZATION WILL MAKE
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS FL SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/10/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101628
SWODY1
SPC AC 101627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ERN/SRN FL OVER THE
PAST 24-HRS WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE 1300-1600 J PER KG/. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE E COAST AND SWWD INTO SRN FL IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AMIDST LOCAL SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY CONFINED ACROSS
SW/SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER THAN FARTHER N. NO SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

...BIG BEND REGION AND PARTS OF S TX...
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SOUTH TX...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE BIG BEND REGION AND
PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/10/2011

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KMQT [101527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 101527
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1027 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 ESE GRAND MARAIS 46.66N 85.94W
12/10/2011 M10.0 INCH ALGER MI PUBLIC

10 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

0641 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
12/10/2011 E9.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

9 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT.

0700 AM SNOW JACOBVILLE 46.98N 88.40W
12/10/2011 E3.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 2 E WINONA 46.88N 88.86W
12/10/2011 M3.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.14 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMQT [101527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101527
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1026 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 E WINONA 46.88N 88.86W
12/10/2011 M3.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.14 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMLB [101504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101504
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW JENSEN BEACH 27.25N 80.26W
12/10/2011 M7.67 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER

7.67 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 950 AM.

&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101449
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.32N 80.31W
12/10/2011 M5.23 INCH ST. LUCIE FL COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM MEASURED BY COCORAHS
RAINFALL OBSERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101445
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S JENSEN BEACH 27.19N 80.24W
12/10/2011 M3.71 INCH MARTIN FL CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 AM MEASURED BY STUART COOP
OBSERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101444
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S PALM CITY 27.10N 80.26W
12/10/2011 M2.88 INCH MARTIN FL CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM MEASURED BY PORT SALERNO
COOP OBERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101408
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
908 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLOOD 3 SSW PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.24N 80.37W
12/10/2011 ST. LUCIE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOODING INTERSECTIONS AT DARWIN BLVD
AND GATLIN BLVD, AND DARWIN BLVD AND TULIP BLVD.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101326
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
826 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N JENSEN BEACH 27.28N 80.22W
12/10/2011 M5.15 INCH ST. LUCIE FL CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 AM MEASURED BY NETTLES
ISLAND COOP OBSERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [101324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 101324
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
824 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 AM FLOOD 3 WNW JENSEN BEACH 27.24N 80.27W
12/10/2011 MARTIN FL BROADCAST MEDIA

US 1 DOWN TO ONE LANE IN FLOODING NEAR TREASURE COAST
MALL.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMQT [101300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101300
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW JACOBVILLE 46.98N 88.40W
12/10/2011 E3.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERS MOST OF THE CONUS
TODAY...WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TX.

...FL...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL CAPE VALUES WILL POSE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...TX...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TX...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA.

..HART/GARNER.. 12/10/2011

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KMQT [101146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101146
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
12/10/2011 E9.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

9 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

GMICHELS

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KMQT [101019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101019
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 ESE GRAND MARAIS 46.66N 85.94W
12/10/2011 M10.0 INCH ALGER MI PUBLIC

10 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.


&&

$$

GMICHELS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100936
SWOD48
SPC AC 100935

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK...ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/ SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR AS BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES SUFFICIENT FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND
MOISTURE INFLUX. THIS PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...MODEL VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAIN TOO LARGE
TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...NOT TO MENTION ATTEMPT A MORE PRECISE DELINEATION OF THE
AREA AFFECTED. UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 12/10/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100656
SWODY3
SPC AC 100654

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S... DOWNSTREAM
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY COMMENCE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER DESTABILIZATION WILL EVEN BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY. THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE SAN DIEGO
AREA...PERHAPS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU. HOWEVER ...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...AS DOES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NATION.

..KERR.. 12/10/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100537
SWODY2
SPC AC 100536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE ZONAL REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS ...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU AND FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...BUT SURFACE RIDGING STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

...FLORIDA...
THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE PERIOD. ENHANCEMENT
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THIS COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE.

..KERR.. 12/10/2011

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