SWODY1
SPC AC 101954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z IS TO MOVE THE THUNDER LINE IN
CNTRL FL ABOUT 50 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WAS
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DESTABILIZATION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE ACROSS THE CONUS.
..BROYLES.. 12/10/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/
...SRN FL...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ERN/SRN FL OVER THE
PAST 24-HRS WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE 1300-1600 J PER KG/. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE E COAST AND SWWD INTO SRN FL IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AMIDST LOCAL SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY CONFINED ACROSS
SW/SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER THAN FARTHER N. NO SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...BIG BEND REGION AND PARTS OF S TX...
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SOUTH TX...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE BIG BEND REGION AND
PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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