Wednesday, September 23, 2009

KBMX [240126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 240126
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
826 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W VERNON 33.76N 88.20W
09/23/2009 LAMAR AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

$$

08

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KBGM [240118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 240118
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
918 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG FRENCHVILLE 43.33N 75.37W
09/23/2009 ONEIDA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ON HOUSE ON RIVER RD.

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG N PLYMOUTH 42.62N 75.60W
09/23/2009 CHENANGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD. REPORTED BY COUNTY 911
CENTER.


&&

$$

HEDEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240050
SWODY1
SPC AC 240047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN STATES...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SRN VT SWWD THROUGH SERN NY HAS
SHOWN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SINCE 00Z...AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE 00Z RAOB FROM
ALB INDICATES 30 KT SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE...ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
02-03Z AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SEWD...BUT THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 09/24/2009

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KJAN [240039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 240039
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
739 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD SHUQUALAK 32.98N 88.57W
09/23/2009 NOXUBEE MS PUBLIC

A FEW COUNTRY ROADS FLOODED NEAR TOWN.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD DUCK HILL 33.63N 89.71W
09/23/2009 MONTGOMERY MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE ROAD WAS REPORTED TO BE COVERED WITH WATER.


&&

$$

HAMRICK

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KMEG [240002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 240002
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
702 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 ESE ABERDEEN 33.75N 88.33W
09/23/2009 MONROE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WOLFE ROAD FLOODED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. KGWX ESTIMATED
AROUND 3 INCHES IN JUST OVER ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

MBS

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KJAN [232329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 232329
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
629 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM FLASH FLOOD CALEDONIA 33.68N 88.33W
09/23/2009 LOWNDES MS PUBLIC

FLOODING ON AREA ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KJAN [232300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 232300
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD PLEASANT HILL 31.72N 90.74W
09/23/2009 COPIAH MS PUBLIC

WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS IN PLEASANT HILL.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KLZK [232250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLZK 232250
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD JASPER 36.01N 93.19W
09/21/2009 NEWTON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ACROSS COUNTY ROADS.

1034 PM FLASH FLOOD MARSHALL 35.91N 92.64W
09/21/2009 SEARCY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS.

1036 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSVILLE 35.46N 93.47W
09/21/2009 JOHNSON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS CLARKSVILLE.
TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON POPLAR STREET AND ON HIGHWAY
64 WEST OF CLARKSVILLE.

1055 PM TSTM WND DMG DARDANELLE 35.23N 93.17W
09/21/2009 YELL AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE CITY LIMITS. POWER OUTAGES
REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTY.

1058 PM TSTM WND GST RUSSELLVILLE 35.27N 93.14W
09/21/2009 M60.00 MPH POPE AR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD YARDELLE 36.07N 93.00W
09/21/2009 NEWTON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 123 WAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

1120 PM TSTM WND DMG ADA 35.11N 92.87W
09/21/2009 CONWAY AR EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED IN THE ADA VALLEY AREA.


1125 PM TSTM WND DMG MORRILTON 35.16N 92.74W
09/21/2009 CONWAY AR EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE IN TOWN.

1132 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSE HOT SPRINGS 34.43N 93.02W
09/21/2009 E60.00 MPH GARLAND AR TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN DIAMONDHEAD.

1150 PM TSTM WND DMG CONWAY 35.09N 92.45W
09/21/2009 FAULKNER AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED IN AND AROUND THE CITY.


&&

$$

46

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KBGM [232230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 232230
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG FRENCHVILLE 43.33N 75.37W
09/23/2009 ONEIDA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ON HOUSE ON RIVER RD.


&&

$$

EMG

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KPAH [232226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 232226
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLOOD 4 W DIXON 37.52N 87.76W
09/23/2009 WEBSTER KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LATE REPORT...STANDING WATER ALONG HIGHWAY 132W FOR SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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KPAH [232224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 232224
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
524 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLOOD MORGANFIELD 37.68N 87.91W
09/23/2009 UNION KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LATE REPORT...A FEW SECONDARY ROADS CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO HIGH WATER. TIME
ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2029

ACUS11 KWNS 232216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232216
NYZ000-PAZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NY AND NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232216Z - 232345Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NY. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND SWD WITH TIME INTO NRN PA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY THE RUC FROM NRN NY SSWWD INTO NE AND CNTRL
PA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ARE HELPING TO CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT THE STORMS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN ALBANY NY SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR STRONG
MULTICELLS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...ABOUT 20 KT OF
FLOW EXISTS AT 850 MB SUGGESTING A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 44167406 43777489 42927552 42597604 41927780 41567822
41197804 41147710 41277633 41567540 41827489 42097451
42477417 42977381 43717357 44167406

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KJAN [232211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 232211
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WEST POINT 33.61N 88.64W
09/23/2009 CLAY MS PUBLIC

ROAD FLOODED IN THE TOWN OF WEST POINT.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KJAN [232148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 232148
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD MONTICELLO 31.55N 90.11W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODED IN THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KTBW [232100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 232100
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM WATER SPOUT 3 W ANNA MARIA ISLAND 27.53N 82.78W
09/23/2009 GMZ853 FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED BY LIFEGUARD AND RELAYED THROUGH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.


&&

$$

JILLSON

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KHUN [232017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 232017
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD 7 NW ATHENS 34.85N 87.04W
09/23/2009 LIMESTONE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

BIG CREEK FLOODED BILL BLACK ROAD DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THE NIGHT OF THE 22ND INTO THE MORNING OF THE 23RD.
UP TO TWO FEET OF WATER WAS FLOWING OVER THIS LOW WATER
CROSSING. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

KULA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231954
SWODY1
SPC AC 231951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PA/NY TO NEW ENGLAND...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO PRIOR OUTLOOK...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL YET
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW QUASI-ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS/LINES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/18Z PITTSBURGH OBSERVED RAOB
REFLECTING UPWARDS OF 750-1100 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITHIN A PREFRONTAL
CORRIDOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/OVERALL MODEST BUOYANCY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS INTO
TOMORROW...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER FLOW
ARE LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR FARTHER E INTO THE MS
VALLEY AND NW GULF OF MEXICO...THUS ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN EITHER AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...N/NW PA NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SOME THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WRN/CENTRAL NY STATE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
HERE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO WRN/NRN NY AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF
MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL DRIVE MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW PA NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING IN CLOUD
BREAKS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/LESS THAN 6 C PER KM/ AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.

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KCHS [231836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 231836
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
236 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM RIP CURRENTS FOLLY BEACH 32.66N 79.92W
09/23/2009 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE RIP CURRENT WAS REPORTED AT THE EDWIN S. TAYLOR
FISHING PIER.


&&

$$

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KLIX [231824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 231824
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
124 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NW OCEAN SPRINGS 30.46N 88.86W
09/22/2009 JACKSON MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL HOMES FLOODED DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN THE CITY OF
ST MARTIN.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KHUN [231813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 231813
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
112 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 ESE MOULTON 34.43N 87.16W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER OVER THE ROAD ON CR 203 1 MILE NORTH OF SPEAKE.

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 ESE MOULTON 34.44N 87.15W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER OVER THE CR 208 1 MILE NE OF SPEAKE.

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSE MOULTON 34.45N 87.27W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

COUNTY ROAD 180 CLOSED 2 MILES NE OF WREN.

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 WNW MOULTON 34.54N 87.40W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

CR 161 CLOSED 2.5 MILES SE OF HATTON.

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 8 NW MOULTON 34.56N 87.37W
09/23/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

CR 150 CLOSED 2.5 MILES E OF HATTON.


&&

$$

AMIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2028

ACUS11 KWNS 231719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231718
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY AND INTO VT/NH...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231718Z - 231815Z

A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY RESULT IN SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
RESULTING IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. CONVECTION NOW CROSSING LK ONTARIO
AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION WILL BE AIDED BY A
SLOW INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...AS STRONGER FLOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ESEWD INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
ERN CANADA. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER STORMS/LINE
SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. NONETHELESS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...LIKELY NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 45057071 44467041 42537359 42057702 42317908 43257881
44967486 45057071

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231717
SWODY2
SPC AC 231714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
AS A CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS
THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...THE PRIMARY SURFACE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING/ WILL LIKELY BE ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/OCCLUDING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH MAINTENANCE OF COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT
ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW /-20C AT 500 MB/...AN AXIS OF 50S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODEST BUOYANCY AND
STRONG/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

...MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF A
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT. CLOUD/PRECIPITATION HINDERED SURFACE HEATING
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2009

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