MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2029

ACUS11 KWNS 232216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232216
NYZ000-PAZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NY AND NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232216Z - 232345Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NY. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND SWD WITH TIME INTO NRN PA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY THE RUC FROM NRN NY SSWWD INTO NE AND CNTRL
PA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ARE HELPING TO CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT THE STORMS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN ALBANY NY SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR STRONG
MULTICELLS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...ABOUT 20 KT OF
FLOW EXISTS AT 850 MB SUGGESTING A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 44167406 43777489 42927552 42597604 41927780 41567822
41197804 41147710 41277633 41567540 41827489 42097451
42477417 42977381 43717357 44167406

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