Monday, October 24, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 250007
SWODY1
SPC AC 250006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL EJECTED NEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. WARM ADVECTION IN THESE AREAS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LIFT AND MOISTENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE SW...ONGOING STORMS OVER SERN AZ WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS LIFT
NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SERN
MN...ERN IA...MUCH OF SRN WI AND PERHAPS FAR NRN IL MAINLY IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR WEAK AND
HIGHLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH MU PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB. NONE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE...BUT IT MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

...NERN STATES...
A BAND OF SHOWERS...SOME CONVECTIVE BUT WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING INSTABILITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LITTLE THREAT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE.

..JEWELL.. 10/25/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250004
SWODY1
SPC AC 250002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL EJECTED NEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. WARM ADVECTION IN THESE AREA WILL LEAD TO SOME
LIFT AND MOISTENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE SW...ONGOING STORMS OVER SERN AZ WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS LIFT
NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SERN
MN...ERN IA...MUCH OF SRN WI AND PERHAPS FAR NRN IL MAINLY IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR WEAK AND
HIGHLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH MU PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB. NONE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE...BUT IT MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

...NERN STATES...
A BAND OF SHOWERS...SOME CONVECTIVE BUT WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING INSTABILITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LITTLE THREAT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE.

..JEWELL.. 10/25/2011

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KARX [242114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KARX 242114
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
413 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM HAIL 1 E MONROE CENTER 44.12N 89.93W
10/23/2011 E1.75 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

0555 PM HAIL 2 ESE MONROE CENTER 44.11N 89.91W
10/23/2011 E0.75 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0556 PM HAIL 2 SE MONROE CENTER 44.10N 89.92W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0600 PM HAIL 1 N COTTONVILLE 44.07N 89.81W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH ADAMS WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS DEPUTY REPORTED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0700 PM HAIL MAUSTON 43.80N 90.08W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH JUNEAU WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0756 PM HAIL UNION 42.83N 90.52W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH GRANT WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KARX [242102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 242102
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
401 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 2 ESE MONROE CENTER 44.11N 89.91W
10/23/2011 E0.75 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0556 PM HAIL 2 SE MONROE CENTER 44.10N 89.92W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KIWX [242016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 242016
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
416 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM LIGHTNING 2 N ROLLING HILLS 41.05N 85.26W
10/24/2011 ALLEN IN BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOUSE CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
HOUSE AND YARD


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101420

$$

JC

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KARX [242015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 242015
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
314 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM HAIL 1 E MONROE CENTER 44.12N 89.93W
10/23/2011 E1.75 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC


&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241928
SWODY1
SPC AC 241926

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1630Z FORECAST...NAMELY TO
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO REMOVE TSTM THREAT IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS
SERN AZ/SWRN NM ALONG NRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME.

..DARROW.. 10/24/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011/

...OH VLY EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED. CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE NERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCAPES WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW AOA 30 KTS AND COLD TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD
BRIEF...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL.

...UPR MS VLY...
LOW/MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SWLY
LLJ OF 50+ KTS BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE. ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE 09-12Z RANGE...BUT HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED JUST BEYOND THE FCST PD.

...SE AZ/SW NM...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL WAVE OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY FOR ISOLD CB/TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER SE AZ/SW NM TERRAIN THIS AFTN/EVE.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241713
SWODY2
SPC AC 241711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...

CENTRAL PLAINS SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY
REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS MN/WI WHICH SHOULD DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
IL/MO WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND FRONTAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. EVEN SO
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS. ATTM IT APPEARS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.

...SWRN U.S...

MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL ROCKIES
AS HEIGHTS FALL WITHIN THE BASE OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE SWLY
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN UT/SWRN CO
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AZ/NWRN NM.

..DARROW.. 10/24/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241622
SWODY1
SPC AC 241620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VLY EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED. CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE NERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCAPES WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW AOA 30 KTS AND COLD TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD
BRIEF...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL.

...UPR MS VLY...
LOW/MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SWLY
LLJ OF 50+ KTS BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE. ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE 09-12Z RANGE...BUT HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED JUST BEYOND THE FCST PD.

...SE AZ/SW NM...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL WAVE OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY FOR ISOLD CB/TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER SE AZ/SW NM TERRAIN THIS AFTN/EVE.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/24/2011

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KMFR [241437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241437
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
737 AM PDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 AM DENSE FOG 2 NE SEIAD VALLEY 41.86N 123.16W
10/24/2011 SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

100YD VIS


&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KTSA [241413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 241413
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 2 SE OKEMAH 35.41N 96.28W
10/22/2011 E3.00 INCH OKFUSKEE OK POST OFFICE

POSSIBLY AS BIG AS A SOFTBALL


&&

$$

KAH

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KGRR [241401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 241401
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1000 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 AM HAIL 5 ENE HUDSONVILLE 42.90N 85.78W
10/24/2011 M0.25 INCH OTTAWA MI COCORAHS

A FEW HAIL STONES WERE 0.375 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0220 AM HAIL 2 WSW EATON RAPIDS 42.50N 84.70W
10/24/2011 M0.25 INCH EATON MI COCORAHS


&&

$$

WH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241242
SWODY1
SPC AC 241240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL SHIFT
EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLONE AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY BY 25/12Z...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SWD INTO KS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO IA.

...OH VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING
THE MID/LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ENTER NEW
ENGLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WV/NRN VA INTO CNTRL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON...AIDING IN BOOSTING MUCAPE VALUES
TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /NEAR -20C AT 500 MB/ AND MEAN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW FROM
30-40 KT COULD FAVOR A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN NARROW ZONE
OF SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

...SERN MN...NERN IA...FAR NRN IL...SRN/CNTRL WI...
AS A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID/UPR MS VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT...EXIT REGION OF 50+ KT LLJ WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER NERN IA
INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...AIDING IN STRENGTHENING WAA AND ASCENT OVER THE
REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ADVECT EWD INTO THE REGION ABOVE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS A RESULT...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND
100-500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH MEAGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SVR WEATHER THREAT.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 10/24/2011

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KARX [241001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KARX 241001
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
501 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 1 N COTTONVILLE 44.07N 89.81W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH ADAMS WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS DEPUTY REPORTED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0600 PM HAIL 3 ESE ARKDALE 44.02N 89.83W
10/23/2011 M0.50 INCH ADAMS WI PUBLIC

1 MILE SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 13 AND
HIGHWAY 21

0700 PM HAIL MAUSTON 43.80N 90.08W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH JUNEAU WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0756 PM HAIL UNION 42.83N 90.52W
10/23/2011 E0.25 INCH GRANT WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BOYNE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240859
SWOD48
SPC AC 240858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REAMPLIFY THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PREVALENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/GULF COAST REGION TO TX COAST
VICINITY. ON DAY 5/FRIDAY...THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
PHASE/AMPLIFY IN EARNEST...ALTHOUGH APPRECIABLE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/MOISTENING INLAND SEEMS UNLIKELY.
NONETHELESS...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES. WHILE SOME
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY 4 OR
5...SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF ANY 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS FOR EITHER DAY.
THEREAFTER...THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY LOW THIS WEEKEND.

..GUYER.. 10/24/2011

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KGRR [240820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 240820
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
420 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW GRAND HAVEN 43.05N 86.25W
10/24/2011 M44.00 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

CORRECTED FOR TIME.

1209 AM TSTM WND GST 5 W HOLLAND 42.78N 86.21W
10/24/2011 M49.00 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

1210 AM HAIL GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.22W
10/24/2011 E0.25 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC

1215 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/24/2011 M42.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1217 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW JAMESTOWN 42.78N 85.86W
10/24/2011 M44.00 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1218 AM TSTM WND GST BORCULO 42.89N 86.02W
10/24/2011 M50.00 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1225 AM TSTM WND GST W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
10/24/2011 M45.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SOUTH HAVEN GLERL OBSERVATION.

1245 AM TSTM WND GST EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
10/24/2011 M50.00 MPH KENT MI MESONET

0140 AM HAIL BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
10/24/2011 E0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240817
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
417 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/24/2011 M42 MPH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240813
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
413 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM TSTM WND GST W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
10/24/2011 M45.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SOUTH HAVEN GLERL OBSERVATION.


&&

$$

NJJ

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240721
SWODY3
SPC AC 240720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE AMPLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE DETAILS...IT IS LIKELY
THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING
THE SOUTHWEST STATES/FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/ARKLATEX ALONG WITH MUCH OF TX.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX/PORTIONS OF TX AND PERHAPS OK. WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY
BE LIMITED BY MODEST MOISTURE AND WEAK /OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN/
NEAR-FRONTAL/WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.

..GUYER.. 10/24/2011

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KIWX [240614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 240614
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
214 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 AM HAIL 1 E MOSCOW 42.05N 84.49W
10/24/2011 M0.75 INCH HILLSDALE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101419

$$

SKIPPER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240556
SWODY2
SPC AC 240555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SPLITTING/AMPLIFYING POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OZARKS VICINITY...AND SERVES AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...ON A LIMITED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY BASIS...SOME TSTMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
VICINITY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
BASIN.

...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION
INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT ONE OR MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA ARE LIKELY TO AT LEAST GRAZE THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A MARGINALLY
MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

IN SPITE OF A RELATIVE/GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND OVERALL MODEST CONTENT SUGGEST THAT THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE TOWARD
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK NEAR THE FRONT AS DPVA/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAK BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG MLCAPE
OR LESS/...ALONG WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR A POST-SUNSET CONVECTIVE
PEAK...A FEW STRONGER/PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL AND/OR WIND MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/24/2011

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KGRR [240548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240548
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
148 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM TSTM WND GST EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
10/24/2011 M50 MPH KENT MI MESONET


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240543
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM HAIL BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
10/24/2011 E0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NJJ

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KMKX [240455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMKX 240455
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW DOUSMAN 42.97N 88.55W
10/23/2011 M45.00 MPH JEFFERSON WI NWS EMPLOYEE

0930 PM TSTM WND GST GREENFIELD 42.96N 88.01W
10/23/2011 E40.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES...1 INCH AROUND...SNAPPED OFF TREES AROUND
27TH AND LAYTON.

0933 PM TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE 43.03N 87.92W
10/23/2011 M44.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS

0946 PM TSTM WND GST RACINE BATTEN AIRPORT 42.76N 87.81W
10/23/2011 M44.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

MEASURED 44 MPH GUST AT THE RACINE AIRPORT ASOS.

0948 PM TSTM WND GST KENOSHA AIRPORT 42.60N 87.93W
10/23/2011 M43.00 MPH KENOSHA WI ASOS

MEASURED 43 MPH GUST AT THE KENOSHA AIRPORT ASOS.

0950 PM TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/23/2011 M55.00 MPH RACINE WI MESONET

MEASURED 55 MPH GUST AT THE 21ST CENTURY PREPARATORY
SCHOOL IN RACINE.

1000 PM MARINE TSTM WIND KENOSHA 42.58N 87.82W
10/23/2011 E45.00 MPH KENOSHA WI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED 45 MPH GUST...OR 39 KNOT GUST...AT THE KENOSHA
HARBOR C-MAN STATION.


&&

$$

WOOD

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KMKX [240454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMKX 240454
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM MARINE TSTM WIND KENOSHA 42.58N 87.82W
10/23/2011 E45.00 MPH KENOSHA WI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED 45 MPH GUST...OR 39 KNOT GUST...AT THE KENOSHA
HARBOR C-MAN STATION.


&&

$$

WOOD

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KGRR [240447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240447
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1247 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.22W
10/24/2011 E0.25 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240445
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1245 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 AM TSTM WND GST BORCULO 42.89N 86.02W
10/24/2011 M50 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 240442
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1242 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW GRAND HAVEN 43.05N 86.25W
10/24/2011 M44.00 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

CORRECTED FOR TIME.


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240441
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1241 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1209 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW GRAND HAVEN 43.05N 86.25W
10/24/2011 M44 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240439
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1209 AM TSTM WND GST 5 W HOLLAND 42.78N 86.21W
10/24/2011 M49 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

NJJ

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KGRR [240437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 240437
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW JAMESTOWN 42.78N 85.86W
10/24/2011 M44 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NJJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240427
SWODY1
SPC AC 240426

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES...EJECTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM IND/OH EWD INTO NY/PA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF RAIN AND
STORMS.

TO THE W...A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL COMMENCE AS THE ERN TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. OVERNIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AS A BROAD AND
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SINKS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS...INDUCING A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WI.

...OH VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
SERN LOWER MI INTO NWRN OH AND INDIANA. FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT AND
A PLUME OF LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH COOL DOWNDRAFTS. WITH MEAN FLOW OF 30-40
KT IN SAID LAYER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

...SERN MN...ERN IA...WI INTO LOWER MI LATE...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...A
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION
NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER INTO SRN WI/NRN IL
BETWEEN 09-12Z. LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WILL BE POOR...BUT
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ALOFT. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCING
QPF ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CAPE
BASED NEAR 700 MB. THUS...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
PRESENT WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF RAIN BY TUE MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
MAY BE QUITE ISOLATED.

..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 10/24/2011

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