KILX [212025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 212025
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL EUREKA 40.72N 89.28W
09/21/2010 M0.75 INCH WOODFORD IL EMERGENCY MNGR

0315 PM HAIL EUREKA 40.72N 89.28W
09/21/2010 E0.88 INCH WOODFORD IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BARNES

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KDVN [212017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 212017
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL ELIZABETH 42.32N 90.22W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL IS OBLONG IN SHAPE. OCURRED OVER LAST 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

LE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1872

ACUS11 KWNS 212017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212016
MIZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 676...

VALID 212016Z - 212145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 676
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 676 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN ADDITION TO HAIL.

AHEAD OF A PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE
EVOLVED...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU NOTED BENEATH A CIRRUS
CANOPY...ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED...BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI. A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED APX
RAOB REFLECTED STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AROUND 1900 J/KG
OF MLCAPE...WITH ROBUST SPEED SHEAR /60+ KT EFFECTIVE LAYER/ AMID A
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. IN SPITE OF A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL...A FEW UNCERTAINTIES/PERHAPS
LIMITATIONS EXIST. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER WITH MODEST MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...OWING TO
PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LOWER
MI...ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THUS...WHILE THE
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE...AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY SURFACE BASED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 45408474 45458266 43358372 43468615 45408474

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KLOT [211958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 211958
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HAIL OTTAWA 41.35N 88.84W
09/21/2010 M0.88 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

IZZI

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KLOT [211955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 211955
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL NNW OTTAWA 41.35N 88.84W
09/21/2010 M0.25 INCH LA SALLE IL AIRPLANE PILOT

COCORAHS REPORT

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211949
SWODY1
SPC AC 211947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL
PLAINS...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL PLAINS...

HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN IL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
MCS...SUPPORTIVE OF EARLIER 1630Z OUTLOOK.

APPARENT CONVECTIVE VORT IS LOCATED OVER ECNTRL IA WITHIN EXPANDING
PRECIP SHIELD. THIS FEATURE IS EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD NRN IL AND
APPEARS TO BE AIDING SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE LEADING
EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING
FROM NEAR THE WI-IA-IL BORDER...SWWD INTO NWRN MO WHERE STRONG SFC
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR AN
UPWARD EVOLVING MCS AS COMPLEX OF STORMS SPREADS INTO NRN IL-SERN
IA-NRN MO. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO DECREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS NEB. INHIBITION SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION PREVENTING ROBUST ELEVATED UPDRAFTS
WHERE BUOYANCY WOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010/

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

AS OF MID MORNING...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL ONTARIO SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF U.P. OF MI/WI/IA...SERN NEB INTO W-CNTRL KS.
AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG SRN/SERN FRINGE OF
FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.

BASED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IT
APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA OF
INTEREST IS OVER NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE NOW OVER NERN MN. 1Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A
RATHER STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WITH 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
OBSERVED BELOW 1 KM AGL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT /I.E. LOWEST 1-2
KM AGL/ IS FORECAST TO RELAX GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WIND FIELD
ABOVE THIS LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG. MOREOVER...REGION
SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH IN TURN WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW. AS
SUCH...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
STORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER AREA OF POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
FROM PARTS OF ERN IA/NERN MO INTO SRN WI/NRN IL IN ADVANCE OF A
LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE APPROACHING MID/LOWER MO VALLEY. TSTMS ARE
ALREADY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THESE FEATURES FROM E-CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS CNTRL IA. HERE
TOO...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT POCKETS OF
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE WIND FIELD WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
POINTS TO THE NE...SUFFICIENT DEEP WLY/SWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

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KLOT [211949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 211949
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL 1 N OTTAWA 41.36N 88.84W
09/21/2010 M0.25 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [211933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 211933
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
233 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 3 NW OTTAWA 41.38N 88.88W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY COUNTY EMERGENCY MGMT

&&

$$

IZZI

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KDMX [211927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 211927
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
227 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG SULLY 41.58N 92.85W
09/21/2010 JASPER IA BROADCAST MEDIA

AIR EXCHANGER ON ROOF RIPPED OFF TOP OF GYM BUILDING.
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF THE ROOF OF THE GYM WAS PEELED BACK
WITH A SECTION OF THIS ROOF THROWN 50 TO 100 FEET TO THE
EAST OF THE BUILDING CAUSING SOME TREE DAMAGE. ONE WINDOW
WAS ALSO BLOWN OUT. NO INJURIES REPORTED. INFORMATION
RELAYED FROM WOI-TV

&&

$$

CCOGIL

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KDVN [211927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211927
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
227 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N MONTICELLO 42.25N 91.19W
09/21/2010 JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREES SNAPPED OFF AT BASE AND DOWN ON CARS IN
MOBILE HOME PARK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211919
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
219 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM HAIL 2 WSW MC NABB 41.17N 89.25W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH PUTNAM IL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211912
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
212 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTICELLO 42.24N 91.19W
09/21/2010 JONES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLE AND LARGE TREE DOWN IN TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S CASCADE 42.26N 91.01W
09/21/2010 JONES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 136. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211903
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
203 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND GST MONTICELLO MUNICIPAL AI 42.23N 91.17W
09/21/2010 M53 MPH JONES IA AWOS

SUSTAINED 41 MPH.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211857
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
157 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM TSTM WND GST MONTICELLO 42.24N 91.19W
09/21/2010 E60 MPH JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0154 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTICELLO 42.24N 91.19W
09/21/2010 JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TWO INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN WITH PENNY
SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 678

WWUS20 KWNS 211856
SEL8
SPC WW 211856
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-220200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN IOWA
FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 676...WW 677...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB.
AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS WARM AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE REGION RESIDES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AREA
PROFILER DATA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP SWLY SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

...MEAD

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KDMX [211852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 211852
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
151 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 PM TSTM WND DMG NE SULLY 41.58N 92.84W
09/21/2010 JASPER IA BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE LYNNVILLE-SULLY HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

$$

CCOGIL

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KDVN [211841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211841
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
141 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL NE CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.67W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED FROM LINN COUNTY EMA.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211839
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
138 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM HAIL 2 NW MARION 42.05N 91.61W
09/21/2010 M1.50 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW HAIL STONES LARGER
THAN HALF DOLLARS.

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KDVN [211837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211837
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
137 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL NE CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.67W
09/21/2010 M1.75 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LEGRO

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KGRB [211836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 211836
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM TSTM WND DMG ST GERMAIN 45.91N 89.48W
09/21/2010 VILAS WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

EB

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KDVN [211834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211834
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
134 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL 1 SSW BELLE PLAINE 41.89N 92.28W
09/21/2010 M0.75 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

12

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 677

WWUS20 KWNS 211831
SEL7
SPC WW 211831
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-220200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 55 MILES EAST OF ROCKFORD
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 676...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF ERN/SERN IA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD
THROUGH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW THAT MODESTLY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...MEAD

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KDVN [211828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211828
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
128 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL MARION 42.03N 91.59W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LINN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

FROM LINN EMA.

&&

$$

LE

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KDVN [211827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211827
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL NE MARION 42.03N 91.59W
09/21/2010 E1.75 INCH LINN IA PUBLIC

RELAYED BY KCRG

&&

$$

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KDVN [211824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211824
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
124 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HAIL 5 NNE CEDAR RAPIDS 42.04N 91.65W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LE

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KDVN [211822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211822
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
122 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HAIL 5 NNE CEDAR RAPIDS 42.04N 91.63W
09/21/2010 E0.25 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LE

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KDVN [211819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211819
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0118 PM HAIL HIAWATHA 42.05N 91.68W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KDVN [211817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211817
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0116 PM HAIL HIAWATHA 42.05N 91.68W
09/21/2010 E0.50 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KDVN [211805]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211805
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0103 PM HAIL ATKINS 42.00N 91.86W
09/21/2010 E1.00 INCH BENTON IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. RELAYED BY BENTON COUNTY EOC.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1871

ACUS11 KWNS 211803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211802
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-211930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO TO NORTHERN
IL/FAR SOUTHERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211802Z - 211930Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO TO NORTHERN
IL/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.

AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
IN ORGANIZATION/VIGOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL
IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
HEAT THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE/FORWARD PROPAGATE
AND ACCELERATE WITHIN A STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. AS
SUCH...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41969172 42738909 41898871 40619008 40039359 40609394
41969172

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 676

WWUS20 KWNS 211753
SEL6
SPC WW 211753
MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-220100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ROBEN HOOD MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES NORTH OF ALPENA MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVELY STEEPENED
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50+ KT SWLY FLOW
OBSERVED AS LOW AS 1-2 KM AGL /PER APX VWP/...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.

...MEAD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211724
SWODY2
SPC AC 211723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS. THESE LEAD IMPULSES
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ OVER WRN NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL
SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SEE MARKED GROWTH/EXPANSION AS IT SPREADS
NEWD ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER INTO CNTRL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 850MB AND STRONG/SEVERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LEADING
ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH COOL
SECTOR STORMS.

LATER IN THE DAY IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL AID SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO INTO WRN
NEB. INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURE READINGS WARM INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S WITHIN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH
SFC-6KM SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REAL STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF
30KT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY VERY
WELL COULD ROTATE AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS INTO SD AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH SPREADS INTO THIS REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...THOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...OH VALLEY...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAK
WIND SHIFT THAT WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM CNTRL PA...WSWWD INTO OH.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SRN END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY WITHIN MODEST WSWLY
FLOW REGIME. IT APPEARS SOME ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND IF LINE SEGMENTS CAN EVOLVE THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY. WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING PROBS ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2010

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KDLH [211701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211701
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W KIMBALL 46.48N 90.33W
09/20/2010 IRON WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN OVER LAKE HEAD RD SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.

0445 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW HURLEY 46.47N 90.24W
09/21/2010 IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

SEVERAL TREES OVER DEFER RD.

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KMPX [211645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 211645
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM HAIL 4 NNE BURNSVILLE 44.82N 93.26W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0137 AM HAIL 1 E RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.26W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN ASOS

OBSERVED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

0140 AM HAIL 2 SW ST PAUL 44.93N 93.13W
09/21/2010 M1.25 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN HIGHLAND PARK AREA POWER ALSO IS OUT.

0145 AM HAIL MAPLEWOOD 44.99N 93.02W
09/21/2010 M0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 AM HAIL 2 SW ST PAUL 44.93N 93.13W
09/21/2010 M1.50 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN HIGHLAND PARK AREA. SPOTTER INDICATES A DEAD TREE IS
DOWN IN NEIGHBORHOOD.

0145 AM TSTM WND DMG ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
09/21/2010 RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH TREE BRANCH DOWN AT STINSON AND SPRINGFIELD.

0150 AM HAIL MAHTOMEDI 45.06N 92.96W
09/21/2010 M1.50 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0152 AM HAIL HUDSON 44.97N 92.74W
09/21/2010 M0.50 INCH ST. CROIX WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRANCHES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.

0235 AM TSTM WND DMG CENTURIA 45.45N 92.56W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

STOP SIGN BLOWN DOWN

0238 AM TSTM WND DMG TURTLE LAKE 45.39N 92.14W
09/21/2010 BARRON WI PUBLIC

TREES DOWN ON 15TH STREET AND HWY 8.

0240 AM TSTM WND DMG BALSAM LAKE 45.46N 92.45W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

POWER POLE AND TREE DOWN.

0242 AM TSTM WND DMG BALSAM LAKE 45.46N 92.45W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0255 AM HAIL BLOOMING PRAIRIE 43.87N 93.05W
09/21/2010 M0.88 INCH STEELE MN COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

$$

SPD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211611
SWODY1
SPC AC 211610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

AS OF MID MORNING...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL ONTARIO SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF U.P. OF MI/WI/IA...SERN NEB INTO W-CNTRL KS.
AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG SRN/SERN FRINGE OF
FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.

BASED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IT
APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA OF
INTEREST IS OVER NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE NOW OVER NERN MN. 1Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A
RATHER STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WITH 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
OBSERVED BELOW 1 KM AGL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT /I.E. LOWEST 1-2
KM AGL/ IS FORECAST TO RELAX GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WIND FIELD
ABOVE THIS LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG. MOREOVER...REGION
SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH IN TURN WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW. AS
SUCH...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
STORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER AREA OF POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
FROM PARTS OF ERN IA/NERN MO INTO SRN WI/NRN IL IN ADVANCE OF A
LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE APPROACHING MID/LOWER MO VALLEY. TSTMS ARE
ALREADY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THESE FEATURES FROM E-CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS CNTRL IA. HERE
TOO...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT POCKETS OF
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE WIND FIELD WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
POINTS TO THE NE...SUFFICIENT DEEP WLY/SWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/21/2010

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KDVN [211442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211442
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
942 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM HAIL ESE JESUP 42.47N 92.06W
09/21/2010 E0.25 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

TAS

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KMPX [211430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 211430
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM HAIL MAPLEWOOD 44.99N 93.02W
09/21/2010 M0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KME

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KMQT [211413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 211413
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1013 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
09/21/2010 GOGEBIC MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS IRONWOOD.
SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED 12 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN ON
MCLEOD AVE. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

SRF

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KMPX [211402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 211402
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
902 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM HAIL 4 NNE BURNSVILLE 44.82N 93.26W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SPD

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KMPX [211349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 211349
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
848 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 AM TSTM WND DMG CENTURIA 45.45N 92.56W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

STOP SIGN BLOWN DOWN

0238 AM TSTM WND DMG TURTLE LAKE 45.39N 92.14W
09/21/2010 BARRON WI PUBLIC

TREES DOWN ON 15TH STREET AND HWY 8.

0240 AM TSTM WND DMG BALSAM LAKE 45.46N 92.45W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

POWER POLE AND TREE DOWN.

0242 AM TSTM WND DMG BALSAM LAKE 45.46N 92.45W
09/21/2010 POLK WI PUBLIC

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

$$

KME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211254
SWODY1
SPC AC 211252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS INTO THE MID MS VLY AND LWR MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST...LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
CNTRL STATES TODAY AS NW ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAILING SW INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY THIS
AFTN...AND INTO LWR MI BY EVE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONT LOW EXPECTED TO PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS WI AND
MI...AND MORE SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY/LWR MI...
WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST
TODAY...A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG /40+ KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN IL/SRN WI
ENE INTO LWR MI. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AND
FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCTD STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTN AS CINH IS OVERCOME.
STRENGTH OF FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND BANDS...WITH
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

FARTHER SW ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW LVL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND MORE FOCUSED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SCTD
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MO...NRN KS AND PERHAPS SRN IA LATER
TODAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF UPR IMPULSE. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
AND MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...SETUP MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS AND EVEN A COUPLE SLOWLY MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
INCREASING LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP STALLING FRONTAL ZONE
MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL OVER PARTS
OF NEB...WRN IA...AND POSSIBLY SRN SD TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/21/2010

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KKEY [211249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 211249
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
849 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 AM WATER SPOUT 5 S RAMROD KEY 24.59N 81.41W
09/21/2010 GMZ054 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTH OF RAMROD KEY NEAR A LINE OF WESTWARD MOVING
SHOWERS. DURATION 7 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 675

WWUS20 KWNS 211146
SEL5
SPC WW 211146
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-211400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 675 ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1869

ACUS11 KWNS 211013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211012
MIZ000-WIZ000-211045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UPR MI NCNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...

VALID 211012Z - 211045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675
CONTINUES.

FLARE-UP OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MSP METRO AREA INTO WCNTRL
WI WAS LIKELY THE RESULT OF NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY BEING RELEASED
AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BECAME ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE. SINCE THEN...INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAS LARGELY
DECREASED AS PRIMARY FORCING BEGINS TO ACCELERATE BEYOND THE MORE
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ INSTABILITY.

THERE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NERN WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z. HERE...SMALL SCALE
LINE SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PVA AND GIVEN
40-50 KTS OF 1-2 KM WSW FLOW...SOME CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE /NOTE M60 MPH GUST AT FREDA MI AT 0545
EDT/. AN ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE TO THREATS.

..RACY.. 09/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 46108969 46618946 46798913 46488879 46118876 45808897
45638936 45618957 46108969

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KMQT [211004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 211004
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
604 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
09/21/2010 M60 MPH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

KFLEEGEL

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KMQT [210929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 210929
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 AM HAIL IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
09/21/2010 M0.75 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

KFLEEGEL

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KDLH [210921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210921
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM HAIL HURLEY 46.44N 90.20W
09/21/2010 E0.75 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

AGRANING

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KMPX [210914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210914
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM TSTM WND DMG ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
09/21/2010 RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH TREE BRANCH DOWN AT STINSON AND SPRINGFIELD.

&&

$$

KME

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210851
SWOD48
SPC AC 210850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE AGREEMENT REVEALING WHAT APPEARS TO LOW
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY OVERALL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM INITIALLY
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS DAY 4 /FRI. 9-24/. ONLY LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT -- EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER LAKES REGION WSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SYSTEM VACATES THE CONUS DAY 5 /SAT. 9-25/...THE NEXT SHORT
WAVELENGTH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS INTO
THE LONGER-WAVE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD
OCCUR DAYS 5-7 IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT...AS THE DIGGING UPPER FEATURE EVOLVES
INTO A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW PER LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION THIS SYSTEM
AND LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED TO
THE NW OF THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL DOES NOT WARRANT
INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

FINALLY...MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO/ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 7-8 AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH FASTER BELT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS
OVER SRN CANADA. HOWEVER...LITTLE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE PERIOD SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2010

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KMPX [210759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210759
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 AM HAIL BLOOMING PRAIRIE 43.87N 93.05W
09/21/2010 M0.88 INCH STEELE MN COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

$$

KME

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KMPX [210706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210706
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
205 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 AM HAIL HUDSON 44.97N 92.74W
09/21/2010 M0.50 INCH ST. CROIX WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRANCHES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.

&&

$$

KME

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 675

WWUS20 KWNS 210704
SEL5
SPC WW 210704
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-211400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES EAST OF IRONWOOD MICHIGAN. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER ERN
MN...POSSIBLY IN REFLECTING FACT THAT FORCING WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE ENCOUNTERED RESERVOIR OF HIGHER PW
OVER WW REGION. STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS FORCING CONTINUES NEWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...CORFIDI

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KMPX [210704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210704
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
204 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM HAIL MAHTOMEDI 45.06N 92.96W
09/21/2010 M1.50 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MPG

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KMPX [210649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210649
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
149 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM HAIL 2 SW ST PAUL 44.93N 93.13W
09/21/2010 M1.50 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN HIGHLAND PARK AREA. SPOTTER INDICATES A DEAD TREE IS
DOWN IN NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

$$

KME

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KMPX [210647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210647
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM HAIL 2 SW ST PAUL 44.93N 93.13W
09/21/2010 M1.25 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN HIGHLAND PARK AREA POWER ALSO IS OUT.

&&

$$

KME

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KMPX [210642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210642
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 AM HAIL 1 E RICHFIELD 44.88N 93.26W
09/21/2010 M1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN ASOS

OBSERVED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

$$

MPG

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB/IA AND
SWRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE W COAST IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE LEAD
FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SLY WARM SECTOR
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE NWD RETREAT OF A W-E
BAROCLINIC ZONE -- THE TRAILING PORTION OF AN ERN NOAM COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE. THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AND RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

...SRN SD/NRN NEB/SWRN MN/NRN IA.
PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON DESPITE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
PERSISTS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR AND N OF THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING INCREASE.
STORMS SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH THE OVERALL ZONE OF MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO SHIFT
NWD WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE PLAINS LATE.

WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASING WITH TIME AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS
SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS...SHEAR WILL INCREASINGLY SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH GREATEST THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL -- WILL EXIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SOME SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STORMS LIKELY ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210548
SWODY1
SPC AC 210547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS
INTO LOWER MI...

BROADLY CYCLONIC FAST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES...WITH A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING... AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM KS INTO LOWER
MI.

THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE ZONE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MO/IL AND EVENTUALLY INTO IND/MI DURING THE EVENING.

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK AXIS ALSO SHOW
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PRIMARY RISK AREA...WITH THE
HAIL THREAT DECREASING FARTHER EAST.

..HART/GARNER.. 09/21/2010

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