KREV [040304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 040304
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
804 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WNW LUNING 38.54N 118.28W
09/03/2007 M58.00 MPH MINERAL NV MESONET

DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE SODA SPRING VALLEY SITE. ALSO
REPORTED GUST TO 52 MPH AT 4PM PDT.

&&

$$

BRONG

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KHNX [040159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 040159
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
659 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
09/03/2007 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 14 FLOODED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF CALIFORNIA CITY BLVD.

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
09/03/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED NWS SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING AROUND THE MOJAVE
AIRPORT.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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KHNX [040154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 040154
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
653 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
09/03/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED NWS SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING AROUND THE MOJAVE
AIRPORT.

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
09/03/2007 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 14 FLOODED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF CALIFORNIA CITY BLVD.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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KHNX [040149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 040149
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
649 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
09/03/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED NWS SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING AROUND THE MOJAVE
AIRPORT.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1929

ACUS11 KWNS 040127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040127
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-040400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL AND NERN MN INCLUDING ARROWHEAD
AND BOUNDARY WATERS REGIONS...MUCH OF WRN LS...APOSTLE ISLANDS AREA
OF EXTREME NRN WI...PORTIONS NWRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040127Z - 040400Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS FCST TO INCREASE DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN MN AND LS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND/SHIFT SEWD
ACROSS WRN LS TOWARD NRN-MOST WI AND NWRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH 05Z.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR I-94 IN
ND...ENEWD TO INFLECTION POINT OR WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER
POLK/MAHNOMEN COUNTIES MN...THEN SEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN TO CENTRAL
WI. FRONTAL WAVE MAY MOVE EWD 10-15 KT...HOWEVER LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN FRONTAL POSITION EXCEPT FOR SOME NWD SHIFT IMMEDIATELY E
OF LOW. NE OF SFC FRONT...EXPECT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WAA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35-45 KT. STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR IN BELT FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY MN ESEWD
TOWARD ONTONAGON COUNTY MI...CLOSE TO 850 MB FRONT AND ALONG NWRN
EDGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW
WITH HEIGHT ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES -- 50-60 KT -- HOWEVER
MUCAPES GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. SOME STG GUSTS ALSO
MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER MOST CONVECTIVE WIND WILL HAVE DIFFICULT
CONSISTENTLY PENETRATING STABLE FRONTAL/MARINE LAYER.

.EDWARDS.. 09/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...

48659425 48629386 48529380 48539352 48609345 48659299
48529263 48449271 48449251 48219232 48369226 48379203
48269196 48179172 48049152 48099122 48249088 48099071
48119008 47998991 48038977 47278814 46408898 46919087
47989458

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040047
SWODY1
SPC AC 040044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF NRN MN AND INTO NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI/WRN LK SUPERIOR...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD PERSIST
THIS EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NWRN MN SEWD INTO SERN WI. WITH 70 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/LK SUPERIOR/LK
HURON...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...EVENING RAOBS FROM INL AND GRB REVEALED MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...AND WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
EVIDENT...NO MORE THAN A LOW-END THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL IS
ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 09/04/2007

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KHNX [032333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 032333
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
432 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL BORON 35.00N 117.65W
09/03/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WITH THE STORM AS IT MOVED THROUGH BORON.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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KKEY [032228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 032228
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
628 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1226 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 ENE KEY WEST 24.58N 81.70W
08/31/2007 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED OVER BOCA CHICA CHANNEL...GMZ032.
DURATION 10 MINUTES.

&&

$$

KASPER

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KLIX [032037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 032037
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM DOWNBURST BILOXI 30.42N 88.93W
09/03/2007 HARRISON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

BILOXI PD REPORTED WIND MOVED A TRAILER INTO THE STREET
ON SOUTH RIVER DRIVE. CELL PULSED AND RAINED OUT IN 2-3
VOLUME SCANS.

&&

$$

RRICKS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031953
SWODY1
SPC AC 031951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN MN INTO UPR MI AND NRN WI...
LOW AMPLITUDE WNWLY FLOW EXISTS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG CORE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BORDER REGION FROM EXTREME SRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO
LAKE SUPERIOR. AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS OCCURRING OVER THE
NWRN STATES WHERE RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH PRIMARY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKS AND WARM ADVECTION LIFT ABOVE 850 MB WILL BE FOCUSED.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE NRN MN
BORDER SINCE THE MORNING...AND NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORMING OVER NERN MN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER OVER NWRN/N CNTRL MN SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL ENHANCE
STORM INTENSITY WITH A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE GIVEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY
NAM...GFS...AND RUC MODELS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS
TO PRODUCE HAIL AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD FROM NRN MN ACROSS PARTS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPR MI AND NRN WI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL.

.WEISS.. 09/03/2007

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KCRP [031822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 031822
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
122 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM FLASH FLOOD VICTORIA 28.82N 96.98W
09/03/2007 VICTORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

STREETS FLOODED WITH AS MUCH AS ONE FOOT OF WATER ON SAM
HOUSTON, LILAC AND MOCKINGBIRD. VEHICLES ARE STRANDED IN
STANDING WATER.

&&

$$

SSMART

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KCRP [031809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 031809
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM FLASH FLOOD VICTORIA 28.82N 96.98W
09/03/2007 VICTORIA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

UNDERPASS FLOODED AT 900 NORTH LORAN STREET IN VICTORIA.

&&

$$

SSMART

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031711
SWODY2
SPC AC 031709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE NRN STATES TOMORROW. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
REACH THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NRN QUEBEC MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWER
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN MEXICO/SWRN TX INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NEWD WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER
OK TOMORROW NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWRN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...WHILE A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI MOVES
SLOWLY NWD.

..GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
PLUME OF RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.75-1.0 INCH FROM SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN
GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NNEWD TOMORROW AS SSWLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT COUPLED WITH DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AIR MASS BECOMING
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SRN ID
INTO CENTRAL/ERN NV AND NWRN UT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC
AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF
35-45 KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP.
MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM...BUT
POSSIBILITY OF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

..SRN/ERN TX...
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN
TX AS DEEP LAYER SSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TOMORROW EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING...HIGH
THETA-E VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG. GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW THAN THE NAM...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6-8 KM/ TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET
DOWNBURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL DYNAMIC
FORCING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.

.WEISS.. 09/03/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031610
SWODY1
SPC AC 031607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER MOST OF THE
NATION TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
GREAT BASIN...THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

..MN/UPPER MI/WI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN MN BY LATE TONIGHT. MORNING SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOW
A STRONG CAP AND ONLY MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING.

..SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RATHER LARGE SURFACE
T-TD SPREADS FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HOWEVER...POOR
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WEAK UPDRAFTS...AND
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT TO VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS TOO
SPARSE FOR A PROBABILITY AREA.

..SOUTHEAST STATES...
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TODAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THESE REGIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW.

.HART/JEWELL.. 09/03/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031300
SWODY1
SPC AC 031258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN MN/NW WI AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A SURFACE FRONT...IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
QUEBEC...WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SRN
ND/MN/WI. A NARROW BELT OF 60-64 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IS
PRESENT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN SD...AND
THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD TODAY INTO ND/MN/WI WHILE BEING
AUGMENTED SOME BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL ACT TO CAP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE
HEATING OF THE WARM SECTOR.

BY LATE EVENING...WAA/FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN MN...WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
750-1500 J/KG / AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL ACROSS NRN MN INTO NW WI TONIGHT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED IN LATER UPDATES...BUT THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MAGNITUDE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..CENTRAL ROCKIES/SRN GREAT BASIN...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS FROM WY SWWD TOWARD SRN NV.
HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS MOVING AROUND THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER NW UT/SE ID...AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITHIN THE RIDGE. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TYPICAL
INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A LARGE 5% WIND AREA.

..TX TO FL...
A BROAD PLUME OF 2-2.25 INCH PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
TO THE E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE BIG BEND. POCKETS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NW GULF COAST AREA TODAY. FARTHER E...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN FL ALONG THE SE AND W COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SW FL IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGERS.

.THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/03/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030845
SWOD48
SPC AC 030845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

..SVR TSTMS WILL BE PSBL THU 06 SEP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
VLY AND CORN BELT REGION...

..DISCUSSION...
BY MID-WEEK...THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPR TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM POLAR WLYS OVER SRN CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MORE QUALITY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS...AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND CORN BELT. MOST ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE
WITH PEAK HEATING...LIKELY AIDING IN CINH REMOVAL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS.

OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION
OF ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.RACY.. 09/03/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030730
SWODY3
SPC AC 030728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL ROCKIES...
NRN PAC UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE GRT BASIN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM NRN
UT INTO MT WITH ADDITIONAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT DERIVED PCPN THROUGH
THE ROCKIES. STRONGER TSTMS MAY FORM WEDNESDAY AFTN AS STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREAD EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM.
ROUGHLY 40-45 KTS OF H5 FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS/HAIL.

..NRN PLAINS...
A STOUT EML WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE IN THE POLAR WLYS
WILL TRAVERSE SRN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE WEAK AND GIVEN THE STRONG EML...PROSPECTS FOR SFC BASED TSTM
INITIATION APPEARS LIMITED. BUT...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE N OF THE FRONT FROM WY/ERN MT INTO ND.
ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR SVR WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN OWING TO
MEAGER INSTABILITY.

.RACY.. 09/03/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030558
SWODY1
SPC AC 030557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NERN U.S. WHICH WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ERN NOAM TROUGH...AND THE PAC NW -- WHERE
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE.

..NRN MN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART CONFINED TO
THE NRN HALF OF MN/NRN WI/UPPER MI...N OF A W-E WARM FRONT FORECAST
TO LIE ACROSS THIS REGION.

WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS -- PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MN AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI -- MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION.

.GOSS.. 09/03/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030539
SWODY2
SPC AC 030537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A SEASONAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPR LOW...CURRENTLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE PAC NW
COAST...TRANSLATES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL BE ADVECTED
NWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT BY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY MAY
SEE WARM CONVEYER BELT DERIVED CONVECTION MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GRT
BASIN...AREAS JUST S/W OF THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONG
HEATING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT.
AS FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVE...TSTMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN ID SWD INTO CNTRL NV AND RAPIDLY TRANSLATE
ENEWD IN 45-50 KT H5 FLOW. BACKING TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AHEAD OF THE
IMPULSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD BOWING TYPE STRUCTURES WITH
SVR/DMGG WIND GUSTS. THOUGH THE TSTM THREAT WILL SPREAD ENEWD DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH.

..GRTLKS REGION...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS REGION ALONG THE AXIS OF ENHANCED WSWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IMPINGING ON A UPR MIDWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSLATE ESEWD ACROSS MI DURING THE DAY...ALONG ERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS AS ASSOCD MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN
AND PROSPECTS FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MINIMAL OWING TO
WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE.

.RACY.. 09/03/2007

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KHNX [030434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 030434
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
933 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TORNADO WNW ROSAMOND 34.86N 118.20W
09/01/2007 KERN CA NWS STORM SURVEY

THE NWS HAS DETERMINED THAT AN F0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
NEAR THE CITY OF ROSAMOND ON SEP 1 2007 FROM 1630 PDT TO
1730 PDT.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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KVEF [030409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 030409
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
909 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FLASH FLOOD KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
09/02/2007 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND WASHES RUNNING REPORTED IN
KINGMAN.

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE WIKIEUP 35.40N 114.18W
09/02/2007 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND RUNNING WASHES REPORTED IN
CHLORIDE.

&&

$$

KLABELLE

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