MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1929

ACUS11 KWNS 040127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040127
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-040400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL AND NERN MN INCLUDING ARROWHEAD
AND BOUNDARY WATERS REGIONS...MUCH OF WRN LS...APOSTLE ISLANDS AREA
OF EXTREME NRN WI...PORTIONS NWRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040127Z - 040400Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS FCST TO INCREASE DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN MN AND LS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND/SHIFT SEWD
ACROSS WRN LS TOWARD NRN-MOST WI AND NWRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH 05Z.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR I-94 IN
ND...ENEWD TO INFLECTION POINT OR WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER
POLK/MAHNOMEN COUNTIES MN...THEN SEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN TO CENTRAL
WI. FRONTAL WAVE MAY MOVE EWD 10-15 KT...HOWEVER LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN FRONTAL POSITION EXCEPT FOR SOME NWD SHIFT IMMEDIATELY E
OF LOW. NE OF SFC FRONT...EXPECT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WAA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35-45 KT. STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR IN BELT FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY MN ESEWD
TOWARD ONTONAGON COUNTY MI...CLOSE TO 850 MB FRONT AND ALONG NWRN
EDGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW
WITH HEIGHT ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES -- 50-60 KT -- HOWEVER
MUCAPES GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. SOME STG GUSTS ALSO
MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER MOST CONVECTIVE WIND WILL HAVE DIFFICULT
CONSISTENTLY PENETRATING STABLE FRONTAL/MARINE LAYER.

.EDWARDS.. 09/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...

48659425 48629386 48529380 48539352 48609345 48659299
48529263 48449271 48449251 48219232 48369226 48379203
48269196 48179172 48049152 48099122 48249088 48099071
48119008 47998991 48038977 47278814 46408898 46919087
47989458

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