Saturday, March 21, 2009

KVEF [220336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 220336
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
836 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE DESERT ROCK (NTS 36.66N 116.00W
03/21/2009 M52.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT MERCURY SITE NTS A23.

0518 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW PAHRUMP 36.22N 116.09W
03/21/2009 M44.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET


&&

$$

BFUIS

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KBYZ [220326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 220326
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL SW MILES CITY 46.41N 105.84W
03/21/2009 M0.75 INCH CUSTER MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

BRS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0234

ACUS11 KWNS 220230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220230
CAZ000-NVZ000-220830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220230Z - 220830Z

SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPR AIR OBS REVEAL A SHARP DIGGING TROUGH
LOCATED OFF OF THE W COAST. ONE S/W TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED EAST
ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER POISED
TO ENTER CENTRAL CA BETWEEN 06-12Z/SUN. DCVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SUPPORTING A
SYNOPTIC SCALE REGIME FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.

COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO BE INJECTED INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS...WHICH
BASED ON 00Z RAOBS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 5000-6000 FT MSL...TO
FALL TOWARDS 3000-4000 FT MSL BY 12Z. THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO AID IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOW. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD GENERALLY RESIDE AROUND 1 IN/HR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES
OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWBURSTS.

..GARNER.. 03/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 40122170 40732171 40482101 40022050 39242014 38621971
37981912 37241844 36571811 36251816 36091828 36111872
36451881 36731906 37121940 37571985 37922017 38102035
38512046 38892064 39432100 39712132 39922159 40122170

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KVEF [220152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 220152
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
651 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE AREA 1 (NTS A01) 37.02N 116.06W
03/21/2009 M44.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT REBOUND ANGLE ROAD EAST AT
SITE A41.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E AREA 1 (NTS A01) 37.03N 116.10W
03/21/2009 M45.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E AREA 5 NORTH (NTS A13 36.86N 115.96W
03/21/2009 M44.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET


&&

$$

BFUIS

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KVEF [220122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 220122
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
622 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT ROCK AIRPORT 36.62N 116.03W
03/21/2009 M40.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW INDEPENDENCE 36.75N 118.25W
03/21/2009 M42.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT SIERRA ROTORS SITE 7.

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.78N 118.24W
03/21/2009 M47.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT SIERRA ROTORS SITE 2.

0342 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW INDEPENDENCE 36.84N 118.27W
03/21/2009 M55.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE OAK CREEK RAWS SITE.

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW INDEPENDENCE 36.79N 118.21W
03/21/2009 M50.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

THE WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT SIERRA ROTORS SITE 3.


&&

$$

BFUIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220059
SWODY1
SPC AC 220057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADER UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGING FROM NERN
MEX NWD OVER PLAINS STATES TO NRN SASK/WRN MB...WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC/PACIFIC COASTS. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK/N TX ATTM -- PAST MEAN RIDGE
POSITION -- AND IS FCST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER AR BY END OF
PERIOD. PRIMARY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE CA COAST AT OR
JUST AFTER 12Z.

LARGE AREA OF MID-UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS PACIFIC COAST STATES EWD
OVER GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LEE-SIDE/LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED LOW OVER SRN MT. WARM FRONT --
ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM LOW GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN
MT...CENTRAL/SERN SD AND NRN IA -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- ONE OR TWO BRIEFLY ATTAINING
SVR LEVELS -- ARE EVIDENT ATTM FROM NERN CO TO NERN WY. THIS IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION -- INITIATED AMIDST STG SFC HEATING ON
HIGH PLAINS. WELL-MIXED/DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM-SCALE
ROTATION...ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND A FEW STG-SVR GUSTS UNTIL THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT SFC COOLING WILL REDUCE BUOYANCY SUBSTANTIALLY AND IN SHORT
TIME FRAME -- 1-2 HOURS. PRIND MOST CONVECTION THEREFORE WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

...NRN PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL
SD NWWD TO NERN MT...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND STG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SD PORTION COULD BE EITHER EWD
EXTENSION/PERSISTENCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE REGIME NOW OVER NERN WY
AND NWRN NEB PANHANDLE...OR SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT ALTOGETHER WITH
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC INVOF MRGLLY MOIST/40-50 KT SLY
LLJ. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES REACHING 35-40 KT FOR GREATEST CAPE DEPTHS...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 500-800 J/KG RANGE.
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT
GRID PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2009

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KKEY [220044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 220044
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
842 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM WATER SPOUT 3 NNE UPPER MATECUMBE K 24.96N 80.63W
03/21/2009 GMZ031 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 3 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MILE MARKER 82. THE WATERSPOUT WAS ABOUT
THREE FORTHS OF THE WAY TO THE HORIZON. THE SPOTTER WAS
UNABLE TO TELL IF THERE WAS A SPRAY RING DUE TO
OBSTRUCTIONS.

0720 PM WATER SPOUT 15 NNW STOCK ISLAND 24.77N 81.83W
03/21/2009 GMZ032 XX NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A
WATERSPOUT ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF STOCK ISLAND
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 12 MILES PER HOUR. THE
WATERSPOUT WAS REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO SPRAY RING VISIBLE.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KBOU [220011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBOU 220011
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
611 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 7 SSE WOODROW 39.89N 103.53W
03/21/2009 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL TWO INCHES DEEP

0530 PM HAIL 10 N LAST CHANCE 39.87N 103.58W
03/21/2009 M0.75 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [212344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 212344
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
544 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 10 N LAST CHANCE 39.87N 103.58W
03/21/2009 M0.75 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0233

ACUS11 KWNS 212323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212323
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-220100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/NWRN KS...FAR SERN WY...WRN NEB...AND SWRN
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212323Z - 220100Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE PRECLUDES
THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD FORMED OVER NERN CO
INTO SERN WY/WRN PART OF NEB PANHANDLE IN THE LAST 1 1/2 HOURS
/SINCE 2130Z/. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO WRN U.S. TROUGH
SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MODESTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS
AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE. LOW-MID
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER CORES.

..PETERS.. 03/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39210228 39760367 40640404 41970447 42830459 43230418
43270274 42300176 40440104 39570123 39210228

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KMQT [212301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 212301
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW ALBERTA 46.64N 88.48W
03/21/2009 M5.0 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

SRF

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KMQT [212030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 212030
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
429 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 ENE PELKIE 46.82N 88.61W
03/21/2009 M4.2 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL OVERNIGHT. SNOW DEPTH IS 8 INCHES.

1130 AM SNOW 7 NW ESCANABA 45.83N 87.16W
03/21/2009 M3.5 INCH DELTA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

SRF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211942
SWODY1
SPC AC 211939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF CA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE RUC INITIATES
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM ERN WY
SWD INTO ERN CO EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE PROFILER NEAR LARAMIE WY SUGGESTS
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 35 KT. ACCORDING TO THE RUC...0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES ARE APPROACHING 10 C/KM SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
FURTHER EAST ACROSS SW SD AND WRN NEB CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...LOW-END PROBABILITIES SEEM WARRANTED ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/21/2009

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KSEW [211851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 211851
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1151 AM PDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SE LYNNWOOD 47.82N 122.29W
03/20/2009 SNOHOMISH WA MEDIA

TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS LOCUST WAY...NARROWLY MISSING A
MOTORCYCLIST...DAMAGING A PARKED TRUCK...AND TAKING
DOWN A POWER LINE. POWER WAS KNOCKED OUT FOR ABOUT
75 CUSTOMERS. NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A NUMBER OF SMALL
SNAPPED TREE LIMBS IN THE AREA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

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KBIS [211755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 211755
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM FLOOD 5 SE FLASHER 46.40N 101.16W
03/21/2009 MORTON ND EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING COUNTY ROAD 134 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FLASHER AS THE MOOSE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANK.


&&

$$

PA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD...CNTRL
NEB AND WRN NEB...

...GREAT PLAINS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 100 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
ERN SD SWD INTO CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE ON HOW
FAR WEST THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD INITIALLY
BE SFC-BASED BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS A CAPPING
INVERSION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS IN ECNTRL NEB NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
LINE AT 22Z SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL. IF THE NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES WITH A LINE FURTHER
WEST...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR SSWWD AS THE TX PANHANDLE.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO
EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL
NEB NEWD INTO SRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 03Z TO 06Z IN WCNTRL NEB SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -18C. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 03/21/2009

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KDDC [211723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 211723
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM HAIL 20 ESE DODGE CITY 37.65N 99.68W
03/21/2009 E1.00 INCH FORD KS PUBLIC

THEY ALSO REPORTED .73 INCHES OF RAIN IN THEIR GAGE.


&&

$$

MB

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KGRB [210621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210621
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
120 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 AM SNOW SUAMICO 44.63N 88.05W
03/21/2009 M1.7 INCH BROWN WI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

ECKBERG

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KGRB [210613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210613
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
113 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 AM SNOW GREEN BAY 44.51N 88.00W
03/21/2009 M1.4 INCH BROWN WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH 1 AM. STILL SNOWING AT THE NWS
OFFICE.


&&

$$

ECKBERG

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KICT [210607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 210607
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HAIL KINGMAN 37.65N 98.11W
03/21/2009 E1.00 INCH KINGMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

SCHRECK

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KDLH [210543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210543
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
03/20/2009 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0918 PM SNOW BENNETT 46.45N 91.85W
03/20/2009 M2.1 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210539
SWODY2
SPC AC 210538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING 90+ KT JET
STREAK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAKER...LEAD IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 29N/123W WILL PRECEDE THE PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM...LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN MT WILL
GRADUALLY REFORM SWD ALONG HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH...EVENTUALLY
ANCHORING OVER ERN CO WHERE IT WILL UNDERGO NOTABLE DEEPENING SUNDAY
NIGHT. PACIFIC FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BEFORE REACHING THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO BEING OVERTAKEN BY
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED FROM THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...GREAT PLAINS...

DESPITE THE MAINTENANCE OF A 30-40+ KT SLY LLJ THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL ACROSS
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MOREOVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING. THE NET RESULT IS
THAT AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE AOB 500-1000 J/KG.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN SD SWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB/WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL...NEAR
OR TO THE E OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WHILE SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF HAIL/ WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MO INTO UPPER MS VALLEYS ALONG LLJ WHERE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FOCUSED. ADDITIONAL STORMS /SOME
STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ALONG PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS MORE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY
AXIS.

CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD.
THEREFORE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST BECOME MORE CLEAR.

..MEAD.. 03/21/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210533
SWODY1
SPC AC 210529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD..AS SERIES OF
NW-FLOW SHORTWAVES REINFORCE MEAN TROUGHING THAT WILL SHIFT EWD
OFFSHORE E COAST. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS PLAINS STATES...PENETRATED OVER S-CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NRN MEX AND SWRN NM.
MEANWHILE...SPEED MAX DIGGING SSEWD AROUND BACK SIDE OF NERN PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ITS AMPLIFICATION AND EWD MOVEMENT...RESULTING
IN STG TROUGHING JUST OFFSHORE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST BY END OF
PERIOD. BY 22/12Z...HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL COVER MOST OF CONUS
FROM ROCKIES WWD.

AT SFC...ELONGATED AREA OF LEE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM MT SSEWD
ACROSS ERN CO AND ERN NM. WRN PORTION OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
-- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM NE TX NWWD ACROSS WRN KS -- WILL
MOVE/REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 22/12Z AS
CLOSED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER MT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THIS
REGION...AS SUSTAINED SFC HEATING WEAKENS CINH OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THIS PORTION OF GREAT PLAINS. OFFSETTING EFFECTS OF
VERTICAL MIXING...AND MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SELY FLOW FROM
PORTIONS KS/NEB...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DEW POINTS MID 30S TO LOW
40S F...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED
TSTMS TO FORM BEFORE EVENING DIABATIC COOLING INCREASES SBCINH
SUBSTANTIALLY. MODIFIED ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE MAY BRIEFLY
TOP 1000 J/KG LATE AFTERNOON...AMIDST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9
DEG C/KM. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING CURVED/ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS. THOUGH
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPEARS WEAK FOR SUSTAINED STORM
ROTATION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE. UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES ARE MRGL BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP...BUT BOTH HAIL AND
STG-SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEAN
RIDGE POSITION...AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COULD DAMPEN INSOLATION RELATED HEATING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SRN HIGH
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MID-UPPER RH THAT SIGNALS
SUCH CLOUD COVER. LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ALSO WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN
SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...MINIMIZING VERTICAL SHEAR.
THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS AND ABSENCE OF MORE ROBUST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP
APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT ATTM.

..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 03/21/2009

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KGRB [210515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210515
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1213 AM SNOW WAUSAU 44.96N 89.63W
03/21/2009 M2.4 INCH MARATHON WI BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT AT WSAW TV IN WAUSAU.


&&

$$

ECKBERG

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KDDC [210451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 210451
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1151 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1143 PM HAIL 5 WSW ENGLEWOOD 37.01N 100.07W
03/20/2009 E0.88 INCH CLARK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

BRIEF NICKLE TO DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED.


&&

$$

BURKE

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KGRB [210415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210415
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM SNOW RHINELANDER 45.63N 89.41W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH ONEIDA WI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

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