SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212323
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-220100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/NWRN KS...FAR SERN WY...WRN NEB...AND SWRN
SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212323Z - 220100Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE PRECLUDES
THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD FORMED OVER NERN CO
INTO SERN WY/WRN PART OF NEB PANHANDLE IN THE LAST 1 1/2 HOURS
/SINCE 2130Z/. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO WRN U.S. TROUGH
SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MODESTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS
AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE. LOW-MID
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER CORES.
..PETERS.. 03/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39210228 39760367 40640404 41970447 42830459 43230418
43270274 42300176 40440104 39570123 39210228
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment