Thursday, May 28, 2009

KREV [282023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 282023
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
123 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM HAIL 3 SSE SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.90N 119.96W
05/28/2009 E0.50 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN REPORTED WITH HAIL. 0.63 OF RAINFALL REPORTED
IN 15 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SMCGUIRE

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KBMX [282021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 282021
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL LOACHAPOKA 32.60N 85.60W
05/28/2009 E0.25 INCH LEE AL PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE POST OFFICE IN LOACHAPOKA.


&&

$$

GGOGGINS

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KGSP [282020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 282020
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL DUNCAN 34.94N 82.14W
05/28/2009 E0.75 INCH SPARTANBURG SC AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED NEAR BYRNES HIGH SCHOOL


&&

$$

MCAVOY

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KBMX [282020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 282020
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL 2 NW AUBURN 32.61N 85.50W
05/28/2009 E0.75 INCH LEE AL PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF AUBURN.

&&

$$

GGOGGINS

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KRNK [282013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 282013
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL ROANOKE 37.28N 79.96W
05/28/2009 E0.88 INCH CITY OF ROANOKE VA PUBLIC

IN GARDEN CITY AREA


&&

$$

TW

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KRLX [282010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 282010
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
414 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL OCEANA 37.73N 81.55W
05/28/2009 U0.75 INCH WYOMING WV PUBLIC


&&

$$

NNNN

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KRLX [282009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 282009
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
413 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM HAIL OCEANA 37.73N 81.55W
05/28/2009 U0.25 INCH WYOMING WV PUBLIC

&&

$$

NNNN

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KMEG [282002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 282002
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM TSTM WND GST REYNO 36.36N 90.76W
05/27/2009 E60.00 MPH CLAY AR PUBLIC

LIMBS DOWN OFF PECAN AND ELM TREES.

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG LEWISBURG 34.87N 89.82W
05/27/2009 DESOTO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG OLIVE BRANCH 34.95N 89.83W
05/27/2009 DESOTO MS NEWSPAPER

PORTION OF A HOME ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF.

0918 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E SANDY SPRINGS 34.43N 88.30W
05/27/2009 ITAWAMBA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ITAWAMBA
COUNTY.

0918 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E SANDY SPRINGS 34.43N 88.30W
05/27/2009 ITAWAMBA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ITAWAMBA
COUNTY.


&&

$$

JAB

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KRLX [281959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 281959
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
359 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0356 PM HAIL OCEANA 37.69N 81.63W
05/28/2009 E1.00 INCH WYOMING WV PUBLIC


&&

$$

JHOVIS

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KMFL [282000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 282000
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 11 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.96N 80.94W
05/28/2009 M49.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

SFWMD LAKE OKEECHOBEE MESONET L005 26.96N 80.94W 42KT
WIND GUST


&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KRLX [281955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 281955
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL OCEANA 37.69N 81.63W
05/28/2009 E0.50 INCH WYOMING WV PUBLIC


&&

$$

JHOVIS

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KEWX [281952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281952
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 6 WNW BIG WELLS 28.59N 99.67W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH DIMMIT TX PUBLIC

ALSO REPORTS OF TREES DOWN NEAR BRUNDAGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00639

$$

JPB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884

ACUS11 KWNS 281950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281949
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281949Z - 282045Z

MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AMIDST POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR WITH PULSE TO SPORADIC MULTICELL CLUSTERS LIKELY RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED IN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AREA VAD PROFILERS DEPICT
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 15-20 KT. WITH STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
GENERALLY CONFINED W OF THE APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN PULSE-LIKE. STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
OCCASIONAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 05/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 38087687 36587661 35237747 34337873 33637964 33348070
33628163 34338233 35278170 36638032 37407958 38127862
38087687

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KEWX [281948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 281948
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL 9 SE LOCKHART 29.80N 97.55W
05/24/2009 E0.88 INCH CALDWELL TX PUBLIC

NICKEL HAIL NEAR TILMON...REPORTED BY A FEED STORE IN
LOCKHART


0811 PM HAIL PANDALE 30.18N 101.55W
05/26/2009 E0.25 INCH VAL VERDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER RELAYED A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN PANDALE.


0812 PM HAIL 6 S PANDALE 30.10N 101.55W
05/26/2009 E0.50 INCH VAL VERDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER RELAYED MARBLE SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF PANDALE.


0911 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S ST. HEDWIG 29.35N 98.21W
05/27/2009 M4.10 INCH WILSON TX COCORAHS

SINCE 7 AM


0930 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW LA VERNIA 29.33N 98.14W
05/27/2009 WILSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM3432 IN WESTERN WILSON COUNTY CLOSED FOR FLASH
FLOODING


0936 AM FLASH FLOOD SUTHERLAND SPRINGS 29.27N 98.07W
05/27/2009 WILSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 539 IN WESTERN WILSON COUNTY CLOSED BY FLASH
FLOODING


1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E CALAVERAS LAKE 29.28N 98.25W
05/27/2009 M3.34 INCH WILSON TX CO-OP OBSERVER

2 HR RAINFALL FROM 8 AM TO 10 AM


1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S RUNGE 28.84N 97.71W
05/27/2009 M2.36 INCH KARNES TX CO-OP OBSERVER

40 MIN RAINFALL


0445 PM HAIL 3 N BARKSDALE 29.74N 100.04W
05/27/2009 E0.75 INCH EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

ON FM 335 JUST EAST OF HWY 55...PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL


0458 PM HAIL 2 NE PIPE CREEK 29.74N 98.91W
05/27/2009 E0.25 INCH BANDERA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON KRAUSE ROAD IN PIPE CREEK.


0504 PM HAIL 5 ESE PIPE CREEK 29.70N 98.86W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH BANDERA TX PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 16 AND 46


0514 PM HAIL 1 WNW PIPE CREEK 29.72N 98.95W
05/27/2009 E0.50 INCH BANDERA TX PUBLIC

MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE JUNCTION CAFE IN PIPE
CREEK.


0524 PM HAIL CAMP WOOD 29.67N 100.01W
05/27/2009 E0.70 INCH REAL TX PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL AT THE GAS N GO IN CAMP WOOD.


0542 PM HAIL BOERNE 29.80N 98.74W
05/27/2009 M0.50 INCH KENDALL TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTED MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN BOERNE.


0545 PM HAIL 2 S WARING 29.92N 98.80W
05/27/2009 M2.00 INCH KENDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES STRIPED FROM WELFARE SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 10
...EXIT# 533


0547 PM HAIL 4 NW BOERNE 29.84N 98.79W
05/27/2009 E0.25 INCH KENDALL TX PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HEARTLAND NURSING ENTERPRISE.


0547 PM HAIL 5 NW BOERNE 29.85N 98.80W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH KENDALL TX PUBLIC

WEB REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC OF WINDOWS BROKEN FROM
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN BOERNE.


0550 PM HAIL 2 NW BOERNE 29.82N 98.76W
05/27/2009 E4.00 INCH KENDALL TX PUBLIC

SMASHED WINDOWS AND DENTED METAL ROOF IN BOERNE FROM
GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL.


0552 PM HAIL 6 N REAGAN WELLS 29.64N 99.80W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL NORTH OF REAGAN WELLS.


0606 PM HAIL 19 NW UVALDE 29.41N 100.01W
05/27/2009 M0.25 INCH UVALDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NORTHWEST OF UVALDE.


0608 PM HAIL 3 NNW CONCAN 29.56N 99.75W
05/27/2009 E0.50 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

MARBLE HAIL IN CONCAN.


0610 PM HAIL 3 SSE WARING 29.91N 98.78W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH KENDALL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED GOLFBALL HAIL IN WELFARE.


0610 PM HAIL 4 SE WARING 29.91N 98.76W
05/27/2009 M2.00 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

AVERAGE SIZE HAIL 1.75...DENTS IN CARS...DAMAGED
SHINGLES


0622 PM HAIL 1 S UTOPIA 29.60N 99.53W
05/27/2009 E0.25 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR UTOPIA.


0700 PM HAIL KNIPPA 29.30N 99.63W
05/27/2009 M0.88 INCH UVALDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW TREES DOWNED IN TOWN...IRRIGATION SPRINKLER BLOWN
OVER


0720 PM HAIL 14 WNW ROCKSPRINGS 30.13N 100.41W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 55


0758 PM HAIL 10 S D'HANIS 29.18N 99.28W
05/27/2009 E0.25 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG FM 2200 BETWEEN
DHANIS AND YANCEY.


0837 PM HAIL CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH ZAVALA TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
IN CRYSTAL CITY.


0845 PM HAIL CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
05/27/2009 E1.50 INCH ZAVALA TX PUBLIC

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AT THE HEB IN CRYSTAL CITY.


0850 PM HAIL 2 SSE CRYSTAL CITY 28.66N 99.81W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH ZAVALA TX PUBLIC

RPT ON CYPRESS AVE


0900 PM FLASH FLOOD CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
05/27/2009 ZAVALA TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

STREET FLOODING IN CRYSTAL CITY.


0902 PM HAIL 4 S PANDALE 30.13N 101.55W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH VAL VERDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER RELAYED REPORT OF PEA TO GOLFBALL HAIL SOUTH
OF PANDALE.


0902 PM HAIL 10 NW DILLEY 28.77N 99.29W
05/27/2009 E2.75 INCH FRIO TX PUBLIC

WEB REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF CAR DAMAGE FROM BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ON COUNTY ROAD 4443.


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00613 00606 00607 00608 00610 00609 00611 00612 00633
00614 00634 00615 00618 00617 00638 00619 00625 00624 00616 00623
00621 00620 00632 00622 00635 00636 00626 00628 00629 00637 00630
00627 00631

$$

JPB

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KRNK [281946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 281946
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSW CHRISTIANSBURG 37.06N 80.43W
05/28/2009 MONTGOMERY VA POST OFFICE

POSTAL CARRIER REPORTED A TREE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 1600
BLOCK OF UNION VALLEY ROAD NEAR RINER.


&&

$$

DS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281942
SWODY1
SPC AC 281939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID SOUTH/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY....

...20Z UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK ARE GENERALLY MINOR.

...MS VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW
ADVANCING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND EAST OF THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD...ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT WITH MOST DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE CAPPING LAYERS ARE SLOWING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER EAST...BUT
CONTRIBUTING TO A BIT STRONGER INSTABILITY...AS A BROAD WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BUT...SPEED MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST IN POCKETS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ONE OF THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY NOSE INTO AND ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THOUGH A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SUGGESTIVE THAT
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SPEED MAXIMUM COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY EARLY EVENING AS IT OVERSPREADS EAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ...WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPC WATCHES AND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 05/28/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONVECTIVE SIGNIFICANCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES. MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER KY AND NRN AR/MO.
A HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX AT 80-100 KT WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE AR/MO SYSTEM...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO WRN TN. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN IL...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NWRN OH...AND SWD ACROSS FAR
NWRN AL/ERN MS.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO AL/GA...
SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BROKEN CLOUDS HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FROM AL NEWD INTO SRN KY. AS READINGS WARM INTO THE
80S...MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG. THOUGH WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE
ARE GENERALLY WLY...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
400 AND 200 MB...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND UNDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRYING...AS INDICATED ON 12Z LIT/JAN/SHV
SOUNDINGS...SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C AND 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES
AT 7C/KM MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.

FARTHER NEWD ACROSS OH AND WRN PA/NY...MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S/60S MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WEAKER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS THAN IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...SWRN TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF STALLED FRONT IN MEXICO...PLUS
COMBINATION OF WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN JET STREAM AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

...FL...
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN COAST OF THE PENINSULA
AND THE WLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY THESE STORMS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

...ORE/NERN CA...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN NV ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN ORE AND NERN CA LATE TODAY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD
YIELD STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883

ACUS11 KWNS 281941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281941
TXZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281941Z - 282045Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD ACROSS THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO WCNTRL
TX WHERE SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. ON
THE NRN END OF THE INSTABILITY...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ABILENE TX. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM A CLUSTER AND PERSIST SEWD INTO THE
WRN HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST IN THE TRANSPECOS
AREA..WARMING SFC TEMPS AND A WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A LARGE HAIL
THREAT AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE RUC SUGGESTS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE 9.0 C/KM
ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29689980 29830031 30300154 30480302 31880297 32190120
31990013 31639927 30869861 29959912 29689980

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KGSP [281942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 281942
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW GREENVILLE 34.89N 82.40W
05/28/2009 GREENVILLE SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN IN THE CHERRYDALE POINT
AREA.


&&

$$

BSH

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KEWX [281938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281938
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 2 S WARING 29.92N 98.80W
05/27/2009 M2.00 INCH KENDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES STRIPED FROM WELFARE SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 10
...EXIT# 533


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00638

$$

JPB

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KLSX [281934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLSX 281934
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
234 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM HAIL KNOB LICK 37.68N 90.38W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH ST. FRANCOIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


0515 PM HAIL 3 S POCAHONTAS 38.78N 89.54W
05/27/2009 E0.25 INCH BOND IL TRAINED SPOTTER


0518 PM HAIL 3 S POCAHONTAS 38.78N 89.54W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH BOND IL TRAINED SPOTTER


0532 PM HAIL BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER


0600 PM RAIN CHESTERFIELD 38.65N 90.58W
05/27/2009 ST. LOUIS MO AMATEUR RADIO

SINCE 6 PM AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED 2.30
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN CHESTERFIELD MO


0620 PM HAIL BROWNSTOWN 39.00N 88.95W
05/27/2009 E0.70 INCH FAYETTE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL AT BROWNSTOWN ILLINOIS


0649 PM HEAVY RAIN AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
05/27/2009 M2.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES...TOTAL
SO FAR


0659 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
05/27/2009 M2.32 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER


0718 PM FLASH FLOOD AVISTON 38.61N 89.61W
05/27/2009 CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO WATER. 2.6
INCHES OF RAINFALL RECEIVED BY SPOTTER.


0755 PM FLASH FLOOD UNIVERSITY CITY 38.67N 90.33W
05/27/2009 ST. LOUIS MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS CREEKS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...SOME ROADS
FLOODED...WATER RESCUE ONGOING


0800 PM FLASH FLOOD BROWNSTOWN 39.00N 88.95W
05/27/2009 FAYETTE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL INCHES OF RUNNING WATER OVER US HIGHWAY 40
AFTER CAMP CREEK WHEN OUT OF ITS BANKS


&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902109 LSX0902110 LSX0902111 LSX0902112 LSX0902119
LSX0902113 LSX0902114 LSX0902115 LSX0902116 LSX0902117 LSX0902118

$$

BRITT

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KMFL [281933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 281933
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN MIAMI SHORES 25.86N 80.19W
05/28/2009 E0.00 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MIAMI SHORES POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING
AND STANDING WATER AT 9800 NE 12TH AVE. THIS WAS NOT
ENOUGH TO CLOSE ROAD BUT WAS INCREASING. THE WEATHER BUG
STATION AT MIAMI SHORES ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ALSO RECORDED
3.60 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THIS AREA.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN HIALEAH 25.86N 80.29W
05/28/2009 E0.00 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE HIALEAH POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THAT THE CITY WAS
PUMPING WATER FROM ROADWAY AT THE INTERSECTION OF E 8TH
AVE AND E 19TH STREET.


&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KIWX [281920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 281920
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
320 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW SPENCERVILLE 40.71N 84.37W
05/27/2009 ALLEN OH EMERGENCY MNGR

SECTION OF ROOFING OFF OF BARN AS WELL AS A POWER POLE
AND LINES DOWN.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902611

$$

ARNOTT

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KJKL [281914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 281914
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM FUNNEL CLOUD DEHART 37.96N 83.34W
05/28/2009 MORGAN KY EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

JCARICO

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KILN [281909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 281909
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
308 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM TSTM WND DMG VANCEBURG 38.59N 83.32W
05/28/2009 LEWIS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TREES DOWN


&&

$$

BC

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KEWX [281857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281857
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 2 SSE CRYSTAL CITY 28.66N 99.81W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH ZAVALA TX PUBLIC

RPT ON CYPRESS AVE


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00637

$$

JPB

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KJKL [281857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 281857
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM HAIL DEHART 37.96N 83.34W
05/28/2009 E1.00 INCH MORGAN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

JCARICO

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KRNK [281844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 281844
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
243 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 PM HAIL 4 SE RADFORD 37.09N 80.51W
05/28/2009 E0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY VA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL AT THE NEW RIVER VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER.


&&

$$

DS

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KRLX [281835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 281835
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM HAIL VARNEY 37.67N 82.12W
05/28/2009 E0.50 INCH MINGO WV PUBLIC

LARGEST HAILSTONE WAS DIME-SIZED.


&&

$$

JHOVIS

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KMFL [281826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 281826
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 PM TSTM WND GST POMPANO BEACH 26.23N 80.12W
05/28/2009 M58.00 MPH BROWARD FL ASOS

0136 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE HIALEAH 25.88N 80.25W
05/28/2009 M58.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

WEATHERBUG AT MIAMI-DADE COMMUNITY COLLEGE RECORDED A
WIND GUST OF 58 MPH.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 313

WWUS20 KWNS 281824
SEL3
SPC WW 281824
KYZ000-NCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-290200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO
EASTERN TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZING AIR MASS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT... ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LOWER OH VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...IMY

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KSLC [281732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 281732
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1132 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM TORNADO 5 W MILFORD 38.39N 113.10W
05/24/2009 BEAVER UT PUBLIC

EF0 TORNADO OBSERVED AND PHOTOGRAPHED WEST OF MILFORD. NO
DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

MPS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0882

ACUS11 KWNS 281728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281728
OHZ000-KYZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND/OH...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN
AL/GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281728Z - 281830Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 30 NW
EVV...WITH COLD FRONTAL SEGMENTS EXTENDING NEWD AND S/SWWD OF THIS
CYCLONE. CU/CB FIELD APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY AGITATED FROM THE OH
RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE MID-MS VALLEY. HI-RES AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. A
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT LATER ON.

..GRAMS.. 05/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON 34638410 33988471 33928521 33918667 34278742 34848743
35828717 37298675 38008701 38818666 39558436 39608376
39518264 39348236 38908224 37518257 35768336 34988369
34638410

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281724
SWODY2
SPC AC 281722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES....

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY...WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERN RIDGING WILL BE SUPPRESSED FRIDAY AS
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX REFORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

TO THE SOUTH OF THIS REGIME...MID/UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WEAK...AND BROADLY CYCLONIC ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...WITH A LINGERING
HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. BUT...A SUBTROPICAL LOW
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY MIGRATING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA VICINITY...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER LOW
REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES...WELL WEST OF PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN...AN INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER
AIR INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ACROSS
THE WEST...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
MOISTENING WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WEAK INHIBITION AND FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PROBABLY WILL
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG/
EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.

...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO UPR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...
BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SMALL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THIS RIDGE COULD INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...WHILE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET DEVELOPMENT
COULD ENHANCE STORMS WITHIN...OR SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO...THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE
NCEP SREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS
RATHER LARGE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 05/28/2009

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KCLE [281713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCLE 281713
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0101 PM HAIL ELYRIA 41.38N 82.11W
05/28/2009 M0.75 INCH LORAIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FITZ

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KCLE [281713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 281713
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0101 PM HAIL ELYRIA 41.38N 82.11W
05/28/2009 M0.75 INCH LORAIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0101 PM HAIL ELYRIA 41.38N 82.11W
05/28/2009 E0.75 INCH LORAIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FITZ

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KEWX [281702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281702
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 14 WNW ROCKSPRINGS 30.13N 100.41W
05/27/2009 E1.75 INCH EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 55


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00636

$$

JPB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281622
SWODY1
SPC AC 281619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS
SWD INTO AL/GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONVECTIVE SIGNIFICANCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES. MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER KY AND NRN AR/MO.
A HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX AT 80-100 KT WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE AR/MO SYSTEM...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO WRN TN. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN IL...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NWRN OH...AND SWD ACROSS FAR
NWRN AL/ERN MS.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO AL/GA...
SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BROKEN CLOUDS HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FROM AL NEWD INTO SRN KY. AS READINGS WARM INTO THE
80S...MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG. THOUGH WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE
ARE GENERALLY WLY...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
400 AND 200 MB...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND UNDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRYING...AS INDICATED ON 12Z LIT/JAN/SHV
SOUNDINGS...SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE WITH LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C AND 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES
AT 7C/KM MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.

FARTHER NEWD ACROSS OH AND WRN PA/NY...MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S/60S MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WEAKER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS THAN IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...SWRN TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF STALLED FRONT IN MEXICO...PLUS
COMBINATION OF WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN JET STREAM AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

...FL...
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN COAST OF THE PENINSULA
AND THE WLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY THESE STORMS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

...ORE/NERN CA...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN NV ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN ORE AND NERN CA LATE TODAY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD
YIELD STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/28/2009

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KEWX [281517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281517
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1017 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL KNIPPA 29.30N 99.63W
05/27/2009 M0.88 INCH UVALDE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW TREES DOWNED IN TOWN...IRRIGATION SPRINKLER BLOWN
OVER


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00635

$$

JPB

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KIND [281459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIND 281459
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1059 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE ROSEDALE 39.64N 87.26W
05/27/2009 PARKE IN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COUNTY HIGHWAY REPORTS CULVERT WASHOUT SOUTH OF JESSUP
ALONG ROSEDALE-CATLIN RD. THREE INCHES RAINFALL IN ONE
HOUR REPORTED NEAR ROSEDALE.

1030 PM FLASH FLOOD FARMERSBURG 39.25N 87.38W
05/27/2009 SULLIVAN IN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODED ROADS WERE REPORTED IN FARMERSBURG TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FARMERSBURG IN HYMERA.

1219 AM HEAVY RAIN CASTLETON 39.90N 86.05W
05/28/2009 M0.00 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER

CO OP OBSERVER REPORTED 1.84 INCHES OF RAIN IN A LITTLE
MORE THAN AN HOUR.


&&

$$

DTUCEK

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KEWX [281457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 281457
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0902 PM HAIL 10 NW DILLEY 28.77N 99.29W
05/27/2009 E2.75 INCH FRIO TX PUBLIC

WEB REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF CAR DAMAGE FROM BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ON COUNTY ROAD 4443.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER 00631

$$

JPB

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KEWX [281450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281450
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM HAIL 5 ESE PIPE CREEK 29.70N 98.86W
05/27/2009 E0.88 INCH BANDERA TX PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 16 AND 46


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00634

$$

JPB

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KEWX [281432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281432
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 3 N BARKSDALE 29.74N 100.04W
05/27/2009 E0.75 INCH EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

ON FM 335 JUST EAST OF HWY 55...PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00633

$$

JPB

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KGSP [281413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 281413
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 AM FLASH FLOOD CLAYTON 34.88N 83.40W
05/27/2009 RABUN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

WATER FLOWING ACROSS HWY 76 AT FIVE POINTS AREA 1/4 TO
1/2 MILE SE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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KGSP [281406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 281406
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 N PIEDMONT 34.77N 82.46W
05/27/2009 ANDERSON SC PUBLIC

CRAVENS CREEK OVERFLOWED BANKS AND FLOODED RIVER ROAD
NEAR HIGHWAY 153.


&&

$$

PTANNER

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KJAN [281357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281357
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG VIDALIA 31.57N 91.44W
05/27/2009 CONCORDIA LA NEWSPAPER

NATCHEZ DEMOCRAT REPORTS A TRUCK TRAILER AND TRACTOR
TRAILER BLOWN OVER IN TOWN. ALSO SOME OTHER MINOR SIGN
AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED AROUND TOWN.


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KGRR [281309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 281309
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
909 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW CHESTER 42.63N 84.93W
05/28/2009 M1.18 INCH EATON MI PUBLIC

THIS WAS A 24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

IOD

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KGRR [281301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 281301
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW LANSING 42.68N 84.58W
05/27/2009 M3.78 INCH INGHAM MI PUBLIC

RAINFALL IS FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 AM. THERE WAS MINOR
STREET FLOODING DURING THE EVENING FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

$$

BMARINO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281236
SWODY1
SPC AC 281233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
KY/TN SWD ACROSS NW GA AND AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SW
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
A NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SEPARATE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS
VALLEY...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER WI AND MO...WILL
PROGRESS EWD TODAY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN LOWER
MI WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AND
MS VALLEY WAVE BEGIN TO PHASE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO OH/KY/TN/AL BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...AND OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC WHERE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE PROFILES WILL PREVAIL.

...TN/OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM KY/TN SWD ACROSS
MS/AL IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLOUD BAND...AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FARTHER NE ACROSS OH/WRN PA...MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S...THOUGH
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. FARTHER E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SE ATLANTIC
COAST...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
BE LESS ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT COMPARED TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SW TX...
A LARGE MCS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF THE LOWER TX COAST THIS
MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR MCS WHICH IS NOW OVER THE E/SE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NET EFFECT OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN
TO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER S
TX...AND IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS
AREA AS A RESULT. FARTHER NW...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF
THE STALLED FRONT AND ASCENT WITH WEAK SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING NEWD
FROM NRN MEXICO WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS W/SW TX. MODEST
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG COULD
AGAIN SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

...FL THIS AFTERNOON...
WLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT AND WEAK SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE E
COAST SEA BREEZE FOR THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT ERN GULF MCS/MCV ON SURFACE HEATING AND
STORM DISTRIBUTION ACROSS FL...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

...ORE/NE CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT BASIN MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/S CENTRAL ORE AND NE CA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...SEASONALLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 C AT 500 MB...AND MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 05/28/2009

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KLIX [281217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 281217
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
717 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0714 AM WATER SPOUT 2 S BILOXI 30.39N 88.93W
05/28/2009 GMZ555 MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 WATERSPOUTS SIGHTED IN MISSISSIPPI SOUND SOUTH OF BEAU
RIVAGE CASINO.


&&

$$

TDESTRI

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KEWX [281210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281210
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
710 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 4 SE WARING 29.91N 98.76W
05/27/2009 M2.00 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

AVERAGE SIZE HAIL 1.75...DENTS IN CARS...DAMAGED
SHINGLES


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00632

$$

JPB

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