SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281941
TXZ000-282045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281941Z - 282045Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD ACROSS THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO WCNTRL
TX WHERE SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. ON
THE NRN END OF THE INSTABILITY...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ABILENE TX. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM A CLUSTER AND PERSIST SEWD INTO THE
WRN HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST IN THE TRANSPECOS
AREA..WARMING SFC TEMPS AND A WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A LARGE HAIL
THREAT AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE RUC SUGGESTS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE 9.0 C/KM
ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29689980 29830031 30300154 30480302 31880297 32190120
31990013 31639927 30869861 29959912 29689980
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