Sunday, July 5, 2009

KBMX [052332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 052332
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW MARBLE VALLEY 33.02N 86.51W
07/05/2009 COOSA AL AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREES REPORTED BLOCKING COUNTY ROAD 40 WITH POWER
LINE SNAPPED IN HALF AND HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMER ON THE
GROUND. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 65MPH.


&&

$$

GGOGGINS

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KFWD [052322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 052322
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E PALESTINE 31.76N 95.56W
07/05/2009 ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DAMAGED HOUSE ON COUNTY ROAD 425 5 MILES EAST OF
PALESTINE

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1449

ACUS11 KWNS 052313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052312
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR
NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...

VALID 052312Z - 060015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AL TO CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS EVENING ATTENDANT TO LEADING EDGE OF AN
MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TALLADEGA TO NRN LOWNDES COUNTIES AL.
A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 550 IN CENTRAL GA MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THIS WATCH WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROUP COUNTY GA AROUND 00Z.

AT 23Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT EMANATED FROM THE SRN GA/SERN AL MCS EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL
AL /JUST N OF AUO/ INTO CENTRAL GA /35 S ATL/. THE LINE OF TSTMS
HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST HOUR /35-40 KT/...
WITH THE LINE TRACKING EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL...THREAT
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE GREATER FROM EAST CENTRAL AL INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.

FARTHER SE OVER SERN AL/SRN GA...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
CONTINUING TO TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /REFER TO SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 FOR MORE DETAILS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN
LOCATIONS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-25 DEGREES...A FEW STRONG WET
MICROBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM FAR SERN AL/GA INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF FAR NRN FL.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31158849 32328833 33108800 32908699 32938648 33318639
33398506 33468302 33268225 32128210 31838237 31318311
31008339 30728382 30748490 30818552 31118634 31158849

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KGGW [052310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 052310
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
510 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 10 N WOLF POINT 48.24N 105.64W
07/05/2009 E1.75 INCH ROOSEVELT MT PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES FROM 445 TO 455 PM. HAIL COVERED
THE GROUND.


&&

$$

AJZ

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KGGW [052250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 052250
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
450 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 5 N LUSTRE 48.47N 105.88W
07/05/2009 M1.25 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES FROM 355 TO 405 PM. HAIL
COVERED THE GROUND AND IT RESEMBLED A WINTER STORM.

0359 PM HAIL 4 NE VOLT 48.43N 105.66W
07/05/2009 E1.00 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA-SIZED TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND AND 0.50
INCH OF RAINFALL

0405 PM HAIL LUSTRE 48.39N 105.88W
07/05/2009 E1.75 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR FIVE MINUTES FROM 405 TO 410 PM.

0414 PM HAIL 18 NNW WOLF POINT 48.33N 105.79W
07/05/2009 E1.75 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED GOLFBALL SIZE THEN PEA SIZE FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES


&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KMFL [052246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 052246
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
646 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WESTON 26.11N 80.39W
07/05/2009 BROWARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

ZMA CWSU RELAYED REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF WESTON FROM AN OFF-DUTY AIR-TRAFFIC CONTROLLER.
TIME ESTIMATED.

0620 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WESTON 26.11N 80.39W
07/05/2009 BROWARD FL AMATEUR RADIO

HAM RADIO OPERATOR OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE
BONEVENTURE AREA OF WESTON.

0625 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WESTON 26.11N 80.39W
07/05/2009 BROWARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM TSTM WND GST CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
07/05/2009 M39.00 MPH BROWARD FL MESONET

AT WESTGLADES MIDDLE SCHOOL. MESONET REPORT RELAYED FROM
MEDIA.


&&

$$

STRASSBERG

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KGGW [052244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 052244
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
444 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 5 N LUSTRE 48.47N 105.88W
07/05/2009 M1.25 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES FROM 355 TO 405 PM. HAIL
COVERED THE GROUND AND IT RESEMBLED A WINTER STORM.

0405 PM HAIL LUSTRE 48.39N 105.88W
07/05/2009 E1.75 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR FIVE MINUTES FROM 405 TO 410 PM.


&&

$$

AJZ

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KTFX [052243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 052243
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
442 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 16 E FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.31W
07/04/2009 E1.25 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES CROP DAMAGE AT ABOUT 300 ACRES OF
WINTER WHEAT.


&&

$$

JNS

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KBIS [052241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 052241
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM HAIL 5 W FRYBURG 46.87N 103.41W
07/05/2009 E0.88 INCH BILLINGS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

PJA

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KCHS [052240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 052240
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
640 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND GST PINEVILLE 33.43N 80.03W
07/05/2009 M48 MPH BERKELEY SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

33

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KPUB [052234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052234
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW COLORADO CITY 37.94N 104.87W
07/05/2009 M1.25 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIP.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.83W
07/05/2009 M0.92 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM HAIL 1 WSW COLORADO CITY 37.94N 104.87W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JCERU

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1448

ACUS11 KWNS 052222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052222
NCZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052222Z - 052315Z

TSTMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NC
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MOST WWD ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR AND E OF GSB EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 01Z.
GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA...
A WW IS NOT WARRANTED.

REGIONAL RADARS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED CURRENT TSTMS ARE
TRACKING EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN
APPARENT WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD INTO NERN NC. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/ SUGGESTS THE STRONGER CORES MAY
ATTAIN ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35527783 36147696 36407577 36337536 35157537 34467626
34517687 34897779 35137807 35527783

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KTAE [052212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 052212
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
612 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE GENEVA 31.07N 85.84W
07/05/2009 GENEVA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES KNOCKED DOWN ON OPEN POND ROAD.


&&

$$

GOULD

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KABQ [052211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 052211
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
411 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 5 S RATON 36.81N 104.44W
07/05/2009 E0.75 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC


&&

$$

CJONES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1447

ACUS11 KWNS 052210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052210
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...CNTRL/SRN GA...NRN FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 052210Z - 052315Z

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS ESEWD.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE SURGED SEWD WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TO THE N. ONE LIES ROUGHLY FROM MERIDIAN MS ARCING TOWARDS ANNISTON
AL...AND ANOTHER IS ARCING JUST SWWD OF DOTHAN AL TO THE EAST OF
MACON GA. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AROUND THESE AREAS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION IS NOW REMOVED FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE N...AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ARE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TRAINING OF STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BE SUSTAINED IN THESE AREAS AS THE BOUNDARIES SLOWLY SAG
SEWD TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN GA/NERN FL...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE
COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PWAT FROM THIS MORNING HAS
LIKELY INCREASED TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BENEATH ONGOING CONVECTION.

..HURLBUT.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32408258 31768310 30738430 30258525 31418732 31838794
32128802 33028743 33268650 32658281 32408258

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KBOI [052206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 052206
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
406 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 3 S CASTLEFORD 42.48N 114.87W
07/05/2009 M0.50 INCH TWIN FALLS ID TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO HALF INCH HAIL.


&&

$$

JSMITH

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 552

WWUS20 KWNS 052203
SEL2
SPC WW 052203
LAZ000-TXZ000-060300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
TYLER TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550...WW 551...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG
INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ABOUT 35 SOUTHWEST OF TYR.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THEY SHIFT ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE
STORMS TO NORTH OF POE. STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO...OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/NWRN LA IN VERY MOIST AIR MASS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.


...IMY

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KABQ [052155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 052155
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM HAIL WAGON MOUND 36.00N 104.71W
07/05/2009 M0.75 INCH MORA NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EBREON

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KFWD [052152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 052152
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW MONTALBA 31.84N 95.84W
07/05/2009 E60 MPH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN TENNESSEE
COLONY NEAR CR 2709

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1446

ACUS11 KWNS 052149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052148
NDZ000-MTZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052148Z - 052245Z

ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO ISOLD/MARGINAL
NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT...ROUGHLY POSITIONED NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SEWD TOWARDS
DICKINSON ND. RIDGING ALOFT MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF
STORMS...BUT A LEAD IMPULSE NOW TRAVERSING EWD INTO CNTRL MT AND
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH VEERING WINDS
AND 35 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEFLY
ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. AS DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THE CELLS
BEGIN TO COLLAPSE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN FAVORABLY BACKED WINDS AND
ENHANCED BUOYANCY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DUE TO ISOLD NATURE A
WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..HURLBUT.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 47490271 46740215 46470316 46920480 47620615 48250744
48780740 48950571 48430436 47490271

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KMEG [052145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 052145
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0421 PM FLASH FLOOD MILLINGTON 35.33N 89.89W
07/05/2009 SHELBY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ARAPAHO ROAD FLOODED.

0434 PM FLASH FLOOD MILLINGTON 35.33N 89.89W
07/05/2009 SHELBY TN AMATEUR RADIO

STRANDED MOTORIST IN FLOODED ROAD AT NAVY AND WASP ROADS.

&&

$$

KNS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445

ACUS11 KWNS 052137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052136 COR
LAZ000-TXZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND PARTS OF WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052136Z - 052200Z

CORRECTED TO ADD WRN LA TO FIRST SENTENCE

WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND WRN LA.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
FORMED TO THE WEST OF PALESTINE TX...AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDS EWD INTO CENTRAL LA...WHILE THE OTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWAT VALUES
UP TO 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS
NERN TX IS LIKELY AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND N OF TYLER TX. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS
REGION.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31249710 32109627 33019498 33009430 32699303 31699253
31149260 30869352 30929657 31249710

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445

ACUS11 KWNS 052134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052134
LAZ000-TXZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND PARTS OF WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052134Z - 052200Z

WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
FORMED TO THE WEST OF PALESTINE TX...AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDS EWD INTO CENTRAL LA...WHILE THE OTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWAT VALUES
UP TO 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS
NERN TX IS LIKELY AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND N OF TYLER TX. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS
REGION.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31249710 32109627 33019498 33009430 32699303 31699253
31149260 30869352 30929657 31249710

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KMLB [052114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 052114
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW PLAYALINDA BEACH 28.60N 80.68W
07/05/2009 M49.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF TOWER 511 MEASURED A 43 KNOT GUST AT AN ELEVATION OF
30 FEET.

0435 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW PLAYALINDA BEACH 28.61N 80.69W
07/05/2009 M44.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF TOWER 512 MEASURED A 38 KNOT GUST AT AN ELEVATION OF
30 FEET.

0440 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW PLAYALINDA BEACH 28.60N 80.64W
07/05/2009 M46.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF TOWER 311 MEASURED A 40 KNOT GUST AT AN ELEVATION OF
54 FEET.


&&

$$

DVD

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KLMK [052058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 052058
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
457 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W BURKESVILLE 36.79N 85.42W
07/05/2009 M1.04 INCH CUMBERLAND KY MESONET

1.04 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN 30 MINUTES


&&

$$

NFOSTER

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KJAN [052046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 052046
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
07/04/2009 MARION MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

3 TO 4 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN COLUMBIA...THOSE TREES
ALSO TOOK DOWN POWER LINES.


&&

$$

CME

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KPUB [052041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052041
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM HAIL COLORADO CITY 37.94N 104.85W
07/05/2009 M0.88 INCH PUEBLO CO PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KPUB [052040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052040
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
07/05/2009 M1.50 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED HAIL UP 1.4 INCHES IN DIAMETER


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1444

ACUS11 KWNS 052036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052036
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...GA...AL...ECNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...

VALID 052036Z - 052130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.

TWO MCSS HAVE EVOLVED OVER WW550...PRIMARILY ALONG TWO WEAK ZONES OF
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH BOTH CLUSTERS BEGINNING TO FORM COLD POOLS BENEATH MODEST WLY
FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF EACH MCS.

..DARROW.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33388790 32718616 32578300 31058327 31238527 32018708
32468905 33388790

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KPUB [052032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052032
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
232 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM HAIL 1 WNW COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.87W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JCERU

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KJAN [052022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 052022
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW BROOKSVILLE 33.19N 88.60W
07/05/2009 NOXUBEE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN OFF OLD MACON RD.

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E MACON 33.11N 88.49W
07/05/2009 NOXUBEE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN OFF HWY 14 E.


&&

$$

CME

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KHUN [052018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 052018
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD ANDERSON 34.93N 87.27W
07/05/2009 LAUDERDALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS WERE CLOSED IN EASTERN LAUDERDALE
COUNTY...MAINLY IN THE LEXINGTON AND ANDERSON
COMMUNITIES. ROADS REPORTED CLOSED INCLUDED CR 50/CR
207...CR 50/CR 207...CR 51/CR 39...CR 96/CR 534...CR
56/CR 51...CR 50/HWY 64...AND CR 502/CR 530.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KLMK [052013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 052013
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
413 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HEAVY RAIN MARROWBONE 36.82N 85.50W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH CUMBERLAND KY CO-OP OBSERVER

1.00 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES


&&

$$

NFOSTER

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KPUB [052011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052011
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM HAIL 1 S BEULAH 38.07N 104.98W
07/05/2009 M1.25 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 052003
SWODY1
SPC AC 052000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
KY...TN...NRN AL AND NW GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

FOR THIS 20Z OUTLOOK ISSUANCE...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS TO
SMALLIFY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A GAP IN
THE SLIGHT IS INTRODUCED OVER PARTS OF SC WHERE RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTS OF SC AND NC...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS A SFC LOW TRACKS EWD TOWARD THIS
AREA THIS EVENING...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT SO LEFT THE SLIGHT ALONG THE COASTS. THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE SLIGHT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES HAS BEEN TRIMMED
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WSR-88D
VWPS SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. IN ADDITION...REMOVED
THE SLIGHT OVER CNTRL TX WHERE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT.
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR IN THE 5
PERCENT AREA OVER ECNTRL TX DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE. THE FOURTH CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN KY AND TN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ONGOING WITH THE
CURRENT CONVECTION. LASTLY...ADJUSTED THE 5 PERCENT LINES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY THE RUC
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR DEPICTIONS.

..BROYLES.. 07/05/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009/

...AMENDED OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE PARTS OF KY/TN IN SLGT RISK AREA...

...KY/TN...
STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POCKET OF
GREAT SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THIS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ESEWD
WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE.

...TX EWD ACROSS GULF STATES TO SOUTHEAST...
NUMEROUS TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEED DEEP-LAYER SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO GA/AL. A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE WEAKLY
CONVERGENCE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...COUPLED WITH MODEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS EXTENSIVE REGION...WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH TODAY. WHILE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE ROBUST STORM
UPDRAFTS...AREAS OF INTENSE HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGH DCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J PER KG. DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS AND STORM CLUSTERS
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MULTICELLULAR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
GENERATE A FEW LARGER COLD POOLS INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW 20-30KT PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS AND A PERSISTING/LOCAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

...UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY. VEERING
PROFILES IN LOWER PART OF STORM UPDRAFTS AND BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS FRONT RANGE FROM WY TO NRN NM COULD
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE A SSELY STORM MOTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING LIMITED EWD
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT AND LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL.

...PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES...
STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WA/OR AND INTO ID LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE ACROSS
INTERIOR WA/OR WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST GIVEN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FORCING AND SHEAR AND RESULT IN LOCALLY
STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. FARTHER EAST...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
INITIATING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS MT/ID. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF
ID WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
THROUGH THE PERIOD OF MAX HEATING TODAY.

...LOWER MI...
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SHOULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WEAK TO MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT/STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF SEVERE THREAT...AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WARRANTS GENERALLY LOWER PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...
THE NEED FOR HIGHER SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE
REASSESSED IN NEXT OUTLOOK.

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KPUB [052001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052001
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
201 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551

WWUS20 KWNS 051946
SEL1
SPC WW 051946
COZ000-NMZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAS
VEGAS NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL TAP RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND WARMING AIRMASS TO RESULT IN STOUT STORM UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 30 KT/ COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE SR SHEAR FOR A FEW PERSISTENT ROTATING
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. AS STRONGER CELLS
MOVE/DEVELOPS OVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...A
COUPLE OF DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.


...CARBIN

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KPUB [051926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPUB 051926
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
126 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0101 PM HAIL 4 NNW CAPULIN 37.34N 106.15W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH CONEJOS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAILED THROUGH 111 PM.


&&

$$

KT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1443

ACUS11 KWNS 051923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051923
COZ000-NMZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051923Z - 052100Z

A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL GENERALLY 1.00" OR LESS.
DEPENDING ON EXPECTED SEVERE COVERAGE...A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN CO/NE NM.
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GET STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE
FRONT RANGE WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE TO ABOUT THE WRN KS BORDER
AS OF 19Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AND PEAK HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CORES PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36970613 38070612 38820570 39230514 39090384 38840323
38040303 36890307 35420307 34810316 34730368 34790514
35370561 36290595 36970613

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KJAN [051920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 051920
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N MACON 33.13N 88.56W
07/05/2009 E65 MPH NOXUBEE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60-70 MPH REPORTED JUST NORTH OF MACON
ON HWY 45.


&&

$$

27

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KPUB [051908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 051908
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
108 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0101 PM HAIL 4 NNW CAPULIN 37.34N 106.15W
07/05/2009 M1.00 INCH CONEJOS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KAPX [051840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 051840
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM HAIL 5 NNW EAST TAWAS 44.35N 83.52W
07/05/2009 E0.75 INCH IOSCO MI PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT RED HAWK GOLF
COURSE


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX0900097

$$

JH

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KBMX [051836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 051836
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
135 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HAIL AUBURN 32.59N 85.48W
07/05/2009 E0.75 INCH LEE AL BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

MROSE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1442

ACUS11 KWNS 051834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051833
MIZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051833Z - 052030Z

A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL BORDERING ON SEVERE CRITERIA BUT A
WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALOFT. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM LONGEVITY...SOME HAIL IS
LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43298566 43888469 45318331 44808295 43838233 42798231
42548250 42788340 43298566

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KTFX [051830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 051830
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 PM MDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 18 SW UTICA 46.78N 110.36W
07/04/2009 E0.75 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0314 PM HAIL 10 SE CANYON CREEK 46.70N 112.11W
07/04/2009 E0.75 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0332 PM HAIL 5 N CRAIG 47.15N 111.96W
07/04/2009 M0.25 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 0.60 INCHES MEASURED.

0418 PM HAIL 18 SW UTICA 46.78N 110.36W
07/04/2009 E0.25 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 E FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.29W
07/04/2009 CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANIED HAIL. IT LIFTED THE CAP -
WHICH WAS BOLTED DOWN - OFF A GRAIN BIN. THE VENT CAP WAS
TORN OFF A WORKSHOP. IT ALSO CAUSED CROP DAMAGE - A
NEIGHBOR JUST TO THE NORTH LOST 80-90 PERCENT OF THEIR
WINTER WHEAT CROP.

0505 PM HAIL 17 E FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.29W
07/04/2009 E1.25 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS HAILSTONES UP TO 1 1/4 INCH IN DIAMETER - HALF
DOLLAR SIZED - MOSTLY COVERED THE GROUND. HAIL FELL FROM
AROUND 5 PM TO 505 PM.

0525 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 E BROWNING 48.56N 112.80W
07/04/2009 GLACIER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED NEAR KIPPS LAKE. HEAVY RAIN WITH 1
INCH HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0525 PM HAIL 10 E BROWNING 48.56N 112.80W
07/04/2009 E1.00 INCH GLACIER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM HAIL 5 S BROWNING 48.48N 113.01W
07/04/2009 E0.50 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 1/2 INCH HAIL FALLING HEAVILY AND ALMOST
TOTALLY COVERING THE GROUND.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 17 E FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.29W
07/04/2009 M1.35 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM AROUND 5 PM TO 6 PM MDT.

0740 PM HAIL 2 W GREAT FALLS 47.50N 111.33W
07/04/2009 M0.50 INCH CASCADE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL PARTIALLY COVERING THE GROUND IN
ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENT
LASTED APPROX. 15 MINUTES.

0745 PM HAIL 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.38W
07/04/2009 M0.75 INCH CASCADE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL OF 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER - PEA TO PENNY SIZED
- FELL FROM AROUND 740 PM MDT TO 745 PM MDT...ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
ALSO...WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OCCURRED.

0820 PM HAIL DUTTON 47.85N 111.71W
07/04/2009 E0.88 INCH TETON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOTS OF DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL THAT COVERED THE LAWN
OF A DEPUTY SHERIFF FROM TETON COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH GUSTY...BUT NOT STRONG...WINDS. STORM
LASTED 20 MINUTES...FROM 8 TO 820 PM MDT.

0950 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE POWER 47.65N 111.59W
07/04/2009 M0.69 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0.69 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES...SOME PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH


&&
UPDATED SUMMARY OF STORM REPORTS FROM 07/04/2009.
$$

COULSTON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1441

ACUS11 KWNS 051822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051821
KYZ000-TNZ000-051915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051821Z - 051915Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF KY INTO MIDDLE
TN. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

A MARKED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS KY INTO MIDDLE TN
FOCUSED NEAR SFC LOW AND ALONG COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
TN WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...NUMEROUS UPDRAFTS AND
LIKELY CLUSTERING SUGGEST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35538906 37638557 37298322 35988492 35298699 35538906

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550

WWUS20 KWNS 051808
SEL0
SPC WW 051808
ALZ000-GAZ000-060100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WEAKLY CONFLUENT OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER
KG AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J PER KG. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL BE PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER
WITH SOME STORM-SCALE TO MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS COLD
POOLS EXPAND AND MOVE ESEWD WITH 25-30KT MEAN-LAYER FLOW. DOWNBURST
WINDS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.


...CARBIN

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KBMX [051748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 051748
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM LIGHTNING SPEIGNER 32.58N 86.34W
07/05/2009 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

PERSON STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ON BOLULDIN DAM ROAD.


&&

$$

JSIRMON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440

ACUS11 KWNS 051741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051740
GAZ000-ALZ000-051845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...WCNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051740Z - 051845Z

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS ECNTRL
AL ALONG ADVANCING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE PARTLY AIDED BY SHEARING MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKENING PRECIP
SHIELD OVER NRN AL. AS THIS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NRN GA
IT APPEARS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO PORTIONS OF GA.
AS A RESULT A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF N-S LINE SEGMENTS CAN EVOLVE.

..DARROW.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32918627 33228430 32578339 31788410 31488818 32918808
32918627

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS CNTRL MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES MONDAY WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM ERN WY SWD INTO
ERN CO AND ERN NM. AS SFC TEMPS WARM MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM WITH A
SLOW PROGRESSION EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z MONDAY
FROM SE CO INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE SHOW A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
SUPERCELL OR TWO ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM
SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER CAN PERSIST SEWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL
SHORT-TERM MODELS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT MONDAY AS A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT WHERE POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL
MT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SEVERE HAIL-STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY THREAT
SHOULD BE HAIL DUE MAINLY TO THE RELAVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN MT AND ND...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND THE
RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...GULF COAST STATES/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
A VERY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

...NERN STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR
THE SFC TROUGH EARLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 07/05/2009

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