Sunday, July 5, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445

ACUS11 KWNS 052137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052136 COR
LAZ000-TXZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND PARTS OF WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052136Z - 052200Z

CORRECTED TO ADD WRN LA TO FIRST SENTENCE

WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND WRN LA.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
FORMED TO THE WEST OF PALESTINE TX...AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDS EWD INTO CENTRAL LA...WHILE THE OTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD
THROUGH CENTRAL TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWAT VALUES
UP TO 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS
NERN TX IS LIKELY AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND N OF TYLER TX. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS
REGION.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31249710 32109627 33019498 33009430 32699303 31699253
31149260 30869352 30929657 31249710

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