Sunday, October 6, 2013

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 070335
FFGMPD
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-070934-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0272
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1135 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 070334Z - 070934Z

SUMMARY...A FEEDER BAND WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH
AN HOUR IS AIMED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SINCE MOTION
OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF TRAINING, FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM TOPS ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLOW BAND CARRYING MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN
INTO THE REGION, WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN
HOUR. THIS INFLOW BAND IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN TN. RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS BEING AIDED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES -- PWS -- OF 1.5-2.1", WHICH IS NEAR THE
RECORD OR WITHIN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NORTHERN GA FOR OCTOBER 7.

THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS SIMILAR TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM RAIN EVENTS WHICH HAVE CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL MONTHS ACROSS UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF CO AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS: PWS IN EXCESS OF THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THAT TIME OF
THE YEAR, LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF AT LEAST
25 KT, CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG PER RECENT ARW GUIDANCE AND A
MODIFIED 00Z FFC RAOB, AND BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN THIS CASE IS GENERALLY CAUSED BY A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING
THROUGH IL. SAB MENTIONED A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM ACROSS GA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING DIVERGENCE AND RELATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA. SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING
WAS NOTED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN A FEEDER BAND-LIKE
FEATURE DIRECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE 850-400 HPA
MEAN LAYERED FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE APPALACHIANS, IMPLYING CELL
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD CONVECTION BECOME ORGANIZED, CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT.

WITH TIME, THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS 40
KTS PER RECENT RAP GUIDANCE, WITH THE MAIN AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY UP
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF COULD RENEW ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. SAB MENTIONED RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT -- WHICH IMPLIES 1-1.5" RAIN RATES AN
HOUR. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN PRODUCING A NARROW STRIPE OF 2"+ OF RAIN
THROUGH 09Z, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING
UNTIL 12Z. SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
IN THIS AREA -- IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES IN THREE HOURS -- AND
RAINFALL COULD TRAIN FOR 2-3 HOURS, REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 36518032 34828207 34128432 35018469 36158262 36438231
36738188 37168150 37488053 36518032

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KCLE [070326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 070326
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1126 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT VERNON 40.39N 82.48W
10/06/2013 KNOX OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT VERNON 40.39N 82.48W
10/06/2013 KNOX OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON POWER LINES.

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG NASHVILLE 40.60N 82.11W
10/06/2013 HOLMES OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG BERLIN 40.55N 81.81W
10/06/2013 HOLMES OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FOUR TREES REPORTED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN AND
AROUND BERLIN

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW CANTON 40.86N 81.44W
10/06/2013 STARK OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

0810 PM BLIZZARD GREEN 40.94N 81.44W
10/06/2013 SUMMIT OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.


&&

$$

KING

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KPAH [070312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 070312
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 N LONE OAK 37.08N 88.67W
10/05/2013 MCCRACKEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL HOUSES EXPERIENCED FLOODING OF GARAGES. AT LEAST
ONE HOUSE HAD WATER INSIDE THE RESIDENCE.


&&

$$

MY

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KLOX [070235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 070235
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
735 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 W MOORPARK 34.28N 118.93W
10/05/2013 VENTURA CA BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE DOWN ON GRIMES CANYON ROAD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 118.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG E SANTA PAULA 34.35N 119.07W
10/05/2013 VENTURA CA BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 7TH ST AND MAIN
ST IN SANTA PAULA.

1045 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW THOUSAND OAKS 34.18N 118.90W
10/05/2013 VENTURA CA BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE DOWN ON THE 1100 BLOCK OF RAMONA DRIVE IN THOUSAND
OAKS.


&&

$$

HALL

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KIND [070217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIND 070217
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW STRAUGHN 39.83N 85.32W
10/06/2013 M4.08 INCH HENRY IN AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL. 1.95 TODAY.


&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

$$

50

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KIND [070210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 070210
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N FRANKFORT 40.33N 86.51W
10/06/2013 M2.83 INCH CLINTON IN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

50

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KIND [070207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 070207
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW STRAUGHN 39.79N 85.32W
10/06/2013 M4.08 INCH HENRY IN AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL. 1.95 TODAY.


&&

$$

50

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KLMK [070205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 070205
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM FLOOD JEFFERSONTOWN 38.21N 85.57W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGH WATER GATHERED IN TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS
NEAR BEARGRASS CREEK.

1045 PM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 38.22N 85.74W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY EMERGENCY MNGR

KY EM REPORTS LANES BLOCKED DUE TO HIGH FLOWING WATER
ON LENGTH OF US 60 IN LOUISVILLE. REPORTED APPROX. A
FOOT OF WATER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SHELBYVILLE RD.
AND BLANKENBAKER PKWY.

1049 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HIGHVIEW 38.16N 85.63W
10/05/2013 M4.45 INCH JEFFERSON KY MESONET

MSD GAUGE AT LEA ANN WAY PS REPORTS 4.45 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR FOR THE DAY

1120 PM HEAVY RAIN JEFFERSONTOWN 38.21N 85.57W
10/05/2013 M4.00 INCH JEFFERSON KY MESONET

1127 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N FAIRDALE 38.15N 85.76W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY...MAKING IT
IMPASSABLE...ON KY 1020 NEAR SOUTHSIDE DR.

1131 PM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 38.22N 85.74W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEOPLE BEING TRAPPED AND RESCUED
FROM THEIR VEHICLES IN OKOLONA... DOUGLASS HILLS...
EDGEWOOD... AND JEFFERSONTOWN

1131 PM FLASH FLOOD LYNDON 38.26N 85.59W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER THE ROAD NEAR ORMSBY LANE
WITH WATER LAPPING OVER THE TIRES

1131 PM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 38.22N 85.74W
10/05/2013 JEFFERSON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

METROSAFE REPORTS PEOPLE TRAPPED IN THEIR VEHICLES BY
FLOOD WATERS AND HAD TO EVACUATE TO THE ROOF OF THEIR
VEHICLE IN THE LAKE FOREST AREA AS WELL AS DOWNTOWN

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN FAIRDALE 38.11N 85.76W
10/05/2013 M4.37 INCH JEFFERSON KY MESONET

MSD GAUGE

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HIGHVIEW 38.15N 85.64W
10/05/2013 M5.00 INCH JEFFERSON KY MESONET

MSD GAUGE

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW OKOLONA 38.16N 85.70W
10/06/2013 JEFFERSON KY BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL FEET OF WATER AT GUARDIAN COURT APARTMENTS

0142 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE LOUISVILLE 38.24N 85.73W
10/06/2013 JEFFERSON KY PUBLIC

PICTURE VIA TWITTER OF FLOOD WATERS ENTERING A HOME IN
THE HIGHLANDS

0216 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N OKOLONA 38.21N 85.69W
10/06/2013 JEFFERSON KY BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL FEET OF WATER NEAR VILLAGE PARK APARTMENTS

0219 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 W JEFFERSONTOWN 38.21N 85.68W
10/06/2013 JEFFERSON KY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING IN RESIDENTIAL AREA AROUND MEDFORD LANE AND
LIVERMORE PLACE

0234 AM FLASH FLOOD LYNDON 38.26N 85.59W
10/06/2013 JEFFERSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING AT BROOKSIDE APARTMENTS AND HUNDAI OXMOOR CAR
DEALERSHIP ALONG SHELBYVILLE ROAD AT COPPER CREEK DRIVE

0238 AM TSTM WND DMG VALEENE 38.43N 86.40W
10/06/2013 ORANGE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN

0312 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW LEXINGTON 38.01N 84.49W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

DISPATCH REPORTS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF ALUMNI DR. AND TURKEY FOOT RD.

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AND CAMBRIDGE DRIVES WITH ONE LANE IMPASSABLE

0328 PM TSTM WND DMG LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY PUBLIC

REPORT VIA TWITTER OF TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON
STANDISH WAY OFF OF VERSAILLES RD.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG PARIS 38.21N 84.26W
10/06/2013 BOURBON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

DISPATCH REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE
CITY ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES

0415 PM FLOOD LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY PUBLIC

REPORT OF DITCH ON LEESTOWN RD. OVERFLOWING ONTO
OUTBOUND LANES. HIGH WATER REPORTED ON GREENDALE RD.
BETWEEN MERCER RD. AND BUCK LANE... MAKING IT IMPASSABLE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300495 LMK1300496 LMK1300497 LMK1300498 LMK1300499
LMK1300502 LMK1300503 LMK1300504 LMK1300500 LMK1300501 LMK1300505
LMK1300510 LMK1300506 LMK1300507 LMK1300508 LMK1300509 LMK1300512
LMK1300513 LMK1300511 LMK1300514 LMK1300515

$$

LG

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KLOX [070202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 070202
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
702 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW SANTA CLARITA 34.44N 118.56W
10/05/2013 LOS ANGELES CA NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREE UPROOTED BY WINDS NEAR THE INSECTION OF
NEWHALL RANCH ROAD AND DICKASON DRIVE.


&&

$$

HALL

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KLOX [070119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 070119
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
619 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SW OJAI 34.42N 119.29W
10/05/2013 VENTURA CA NEWSPAPER

50 FOOT TALL TREE DOWNED BY WINDS...DOWNING POWER LINES
AND DAMAGING TWO POWER POLES. ROADWAY WAS BLOCKED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.


&&

$$

HALL

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KDTX [070104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 070104
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
904 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N MIDLAND 43.68N 84.23W
10/06/2013 M1.80 INCH MIDLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL


&&

$$

SCHULTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER OH AND UPPER TN RIVER VALLEYS...
THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
E-CNTRL TN AS OF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA/WV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN
ADEQUATELY MOIST/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO PERHAPS CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
RISK.

...WRN NC AND WRN VA...
AS THE MIDWEST CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE-TILT AND PIVOTS TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...H85
FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 35-50 KT IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE 06-12Z PERIOD. DESPITE AN INFLUX OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/...POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE...AND MAY RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/BROYLES.. 10/07/2013

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KAPX [062325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 062325
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN INDIAN RIVER 45.42N 84.62W
10/06/2013 M2.00 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 PM.


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [062301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 062301
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
701 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN BOYNE CITY 45.18N 84.96W
10/06/2013 M1.46 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER

24HR TOTAL THRU 7PM.


&&

$$

SWR

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KMFL [062256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 062256
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM WATER SPOUT 5 NW PAHOKEE 26.87N 80.72W
10/06/2013 AMZ610 FL AIRPLANE PILOT

WATERSPOUT PILOT REPORTED WNW OF PAHOKEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300237

$$

60

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KIND [062248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 062248
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BLOOMINGTON 39.12N 86.59W
10/06/2013 M4.50 INCH MONROE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.


&&

$$

50

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KAPX [062245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 062245
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN KELDEN 46.21N 84.31W
10/06/2013 M1.57 INCH CHIPPEWA MI SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL ENDING AT 6 PM.


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KIND [062214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 062214
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
614 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMFIELD 39.03N 86.94W
10/06/2013 M5.77 INCH GREENE IN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL. 3.00 TODAY. REPORT FROM TWITTER.

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN MERIDIAN HILLS 39.89N 86.16W
10/06/2013 M3.22 INCH MARION IN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL. REPORT FROM TWITTER.

0356 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W GREENWOOD 39.62N 86.21W
10/06/2013 M2.55 INCH JOHNSON IN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

50

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KILN [062145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 062145
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM TSTM WND GST KLCK RICKENBACKER APT 39.81N 82.93W
10/06/2013 M54 MPH FRANKLIN OH AWOS


&&

$$

ASL

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KILN [062137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 062137
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG MANCHESTER 38.69N 83.61W
10/06/2013 ADAMS OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN


&&

$$

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KILN [062113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 062113
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE MARSHALL 39.19N 83.47W
10/06/2013 HIGHLAND OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES NEAR ROCKY FORK STATE
PARK


&&

$$

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KLMK [062111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 062111
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
511 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM FLOOD LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY PUBLIC

REPORT OF DITCH ON LEESTOWN RD. OVERFLOWING ONTO
OUTBOUND LANES. HIGH WATER REPORTED ON GREENDALE RD.
BETWEEN MERCER RD. AND BUCK LANE... MAKING IT IMPASSABLE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300515

$$

LG

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KLMK [062055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 062055
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG PARIS 38.21N 84.26W
10/06/2013 BOURBON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

DISPATCH REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE
CITY ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300514

$$

LG

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KLMK [062048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLMK 062048
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
10/06/2013 FAYETTE KY TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AND CAMBRIDGE DRIVES WITH ONE LANE IMPASSABLE


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300513

$$

LG

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KILN [062048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 062048
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S HILLSBORO 39.12N 83.60W
10/06/2013 HIGHLAND OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN NEAR BUCKLEY ROAD AND ROUTE 247


&&

$$

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KIND [062047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 062047
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
447 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S CASTLETON 39.88N 86.05W
10/06/2013 M3.87 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 1.44 INCHES TODAY.

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN INDIANAPOLIS 39.73N 86.28W
10/06/2013 M2.50 INCH MARION IN NWS OFFICE

STORM TOTAL. 1.45 TODAY.

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN BEDFORD 38.86N 86.49W
10/06/2013 M2.32 INCH LAWRENCE IN PUBLIC


&&

$$

50

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 062002
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO
SWD TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...20Z UPDATE...
LIMITED SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PRIOR CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS. MAIN SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE LINEAR BANDS OF
CONVECTION NEAR...AND MORE SO...JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL KY NNE INTO CENTRAL OH.

..GUYER.. 10/06/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013/

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO SWD TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG MID/UPPER PV MAX AND
ATTENDANT NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEDE THE PV MAX.
ACCOMPANYING SUPPRESSED INSOLATION WILL GENERALLY MITIGATE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF AN
ELONGATED...N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AREAS OF
CLOUD-THINNING/CLEARING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE BROADER CLOUD
SHIELD FROM MIDDLE TN NEWD TO THE ERN OHIO LAKESHORE. INSOLATION IN
THESE AREAS IS SERVING TO DIABATICALLY HEAT THE SURFACE LAYER
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
AND...WITH A MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOIST PLUME -- GPS PW AROUND
1.3-1.7 INCHES -- SUPPORTING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL LIKELY ENSUE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BECOME RELATIVELY STEEPER.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AMIDST DEEPENING PBL
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDLE TN
NEWD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ADVANCE NEWD AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWING
ELEMENTS PROVIDED THE PRESENCE OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR. DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WARRANTING SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION WITH
THE AFFECTED WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. THE FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE
THIS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND
COULD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY BOOST IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

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