Monday, September 12, 2011

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 849

WWUS20 KWNS 130348
SEL9
SPC WW 130348
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-130500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 849 ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMQT [130321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 130321
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1120 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSW COPPER HARBOR 47.45N 87.90W
09/12/2011 M46 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS

MEASURED AT KP59. GUST OF 45MPH AT 2004 EDT AS WELL.


&&

$$

TKLUBER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2168

ACUS11 KWNS 130307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130306
MIZ000-WIZ000-130400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI AND EXTREME NRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 849...

VALID 130306Z - 130400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 849
CONTINUES.

H5 ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SHOW A STG UPR SHORTWAVE TROUGH /110
METER-12HR HEIGHT FALLS/ MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS LATE THIS
EVE. VIGOROUS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
A BAND OF TSTMS...MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS UPR MI AND FAR
NRN WI. ALTHOUGH UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE
POTENT...MRGL LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MLCINH IN THE INFLOW
REGION OF STORMS HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL IN SUSTAINING SVR STORMS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST/SVR HAILSTONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACTIVITY WILL GROW APPRECIABLY
STRONGER THAN IT IS AT 03Z. AS SUCH...A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED
EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

..RACY.. 09/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 45688904 46908862 47668747 46528491 45308594 45098737
45058794 45688904

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMQT [130259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 130259
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1059 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
09/12/2011 M42 MPH ALGER MI ASOS


&&

$$

TKLUBER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [130242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 130242
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
742 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 4 N KENO 42.19N 121.91W
09/12/2011 M0.25 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO RECEIVED 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN AND A WIND GUST TO 23
MPH.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2164

ACUS11 KWNS 121959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121959
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-122130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121959Z - 122130Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
OF THE THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AZ
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE
CURRENTLY IN NW AZ WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AZ SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAKING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT SUGGESTING THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WEST OF THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

..BROYLES.. 09/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 33631335 34171083 35711013 37111082 37021246 36331420
34881424 33631335

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121958
SWODY1
SPC AC 121956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND NRN WI...

...GREAT LAKES AREA...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH AS DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MI AND NRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011/

...MI/WI...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA/ND. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTING A RISK
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WESTERN UPPER MI LATER TODAY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LESSEN
THE TORNADO RISK. STORMS WILL THEN TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI AND APPROACH NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT INTO WI. GIVEN TRENDS IN NEW NAM SOLUTION AND SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO CENTRAL WI TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

...AZ...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER AZ TODAY WITH A PLUME OF MORE RICH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AZ
WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT.

...CAROLINAS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS GA/SC AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
HELP TO PROMOTE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NC/SC
COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND LAPSE RATES ARE POOR.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [121921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KMFR 121921
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1221 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND GST MERRILL 42.03N 121.60W
09/11/2011 E40.00 MPH KLAMATH OR PUBLIC

WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH HEAVY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AROUND 5 PM SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPSR [121852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 121852
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1152 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE MARICOPA 33.08N 112.04W
09/11/2011 PINAL AZ NEWSPAPER

APPROXIMATELY 80 TREES BLOWN DOWN, UP TO 10 IN. DIAMETER
AT THE EL RANCHO EL DORADO SUBDIVISION AND THE DUKE GOLF
COURSE IN MARICOPA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM 1730 TO 1800 L.
DELAYED REPORT.


&&

$$

JSAWTELLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMHX [121852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 121852
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM HAIL 5 N LA GRANGE 35.38N 77.79W
09/12/2011 M0.50 INCH GREENE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH HAIL ON HWY 903 S.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100401

$$

MELENDEZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2163

ACUS11 KWNS 121831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121831
NCZ000-SCZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121831Z - 122000Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
CELLS INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING IN SERN NC ALONG A
SFC-TROUGH ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM NEAR CHARLESTON SC TO NORTH OF
WILMINGTON NC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN APPALACHIANS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO
THE LIFT...WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PRESENT IN THE ERN CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD HELP THE DOWNDRAFTS TO
PERSIST AND INTENSIFY. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 09/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 34417720 34917640 35677585 35997638 36017737 35697815
35317921 35087991 34548036 33868053 33358011 33087930
33677872 33747787 34417720

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2162

ACUS11 KWNS 121815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121815
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MN ARROWHEAD / NRN WI / WRN U.P. MICH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121815Z - 122015Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
A SEVERE WW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD FROM INITIALLY THE MN
ARROWHEAD S AND E INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MICH.

EARLY AFTERNOON SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE /EXTENDING FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO W-CNTRL
MN/ AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW 130 MI
NE INL SWWD INTO SERN ND. THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS
DESTABILIZING WITH AOA 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON
AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 70S. AS UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
COMBINES WITH FRONTAL LIFT...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE REMOVAL OF THE
CAP AND LEAD TO SCTD STORMS LATER TODAY.

CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION/INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE/SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. SOME
QUESTION REMAINS REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FARTHER SE ACROSS NRN WI INTO WRN U.P. MICH...RECENT
RUNS OF STORM RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOP STORMS IN THE 22-02Z
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES WITHIN AN
INCREASING/STRONG WIND PROFILE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WIND RISK...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS RESPOND TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF LINEAR FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
AN EVENTUAL LINE SEGMENT.

..SMITH.. 09/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 46619270 47609252 48379219 48499127 48088823 47088779
46048856 45089079 45749203 46619270

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [121757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 121757
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 8 SSW BLACK HAWK 33.22N 90.08W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH HOLMES MS PUBLIC

REPORTED ALONG RANDLETOWN RD

0554 PM HAIL 8 N LEXINGTON 33.23N 90.05W
09/11/2011 E0.88 INCH HOLMES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR ACONA.

0554 PM HAIL 7 NNE LEXINGTON 33.21N 90.00W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH HOLMES MS TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON BELL BOTTOM RD.

0645 PM HAIL 1 E SWEATMAN 33.63N 89.56W
09/11/2011 E1.50 INCH MONTGOMERY MS TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED.

0713 PM HAIL 3 WNW MIDWAY 32.90N 90.24W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS PUBLIC

REPORTED AT PIERCE CROSSROAD

0721 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDWAY 32.89N 90.19W
09/11/2011 YAZOO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 433 AND IN MIDWAY.

0726 PM HAIL MIDWAY 32.89N 90.19W
09/11/2011 E1.75 INCH YAZOO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN MIDWAY.

0740 PM HAIL 3 N BENTON 32.87N 90.26W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON JOHNSTON RD AND AT PIERCE CROSSROAD.


0830 PM HAIL CRYSTAL SPRINGS 31.99N 90.36W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH COPIAH MS PUBLIC

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE CRYSTAL SPRINGS 32.02N 90.34W
09/11/2011 COPIAH MS AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN ON HARTLEY LN AND COUNTY LINE
RD. APPROX 12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN ON UPTON RD.

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CRYSTAL SPRINGS 32.00N 90.36W
09/11/2011 COPIAH MS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SMALL TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN CRYSTAL
SPRINGS.


&&

$$

DL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [121756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121756
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 8 SSW BLACK HAWK 33.22N 90.08W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH HOLMES MS PUBLIC

REPORTED ALONG RANDLETOWN RD


&&

$$

DL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NY AND PA...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN AND EJECT NEWD INTO SRN
QUEBEC EARLY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN QUEBEC
WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NERN STATES AND OH VALLEY.

...NY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES...BUT
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1200 J/KG. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN SERN CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
IMPULSE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 KT IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...BUT WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CONVECTION AS STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL HAIL INTO AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXTEND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
AND STORM COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY.

...AZ...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE EASTWARD-
PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAINING
COMMON FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IN VICINITY TO FOUR CORNERS
AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A MOIST MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS
MAY YIELD A FEW TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AZ.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCHS [121615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 121615
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1214 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 PM TSTM WND DMG HARRIS NECK 31.63N 81.27W
09/11/2011 MCINTOSH GA PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED 1 LARGE OAK TREE DOWN AND 20 TO 30
LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN THE HARRIS NECK AREA.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100943

$$

DPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPSR [121602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 121602
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM TSTM WND DMG MESA 33.42N 111.74W
09/10/2011 MARICOPA AZ NWS STORM SURVEY

SHINGLE ROOF DAMAGE. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN UP TO 14 IN.
DIAMETER. DELAYED REPORT.


&&

$$

JSAWTELLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121600
SWODY1
SPC AC 121558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND UPPER
MI...

...MI/WI...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA/ND. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTING A RISK
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WESTERN UPPER MI LATER TODAY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LESSEN
THE TORNADO RISK. STORMS WILL THEN TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI AND APPROACH NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT INTO WI. GIVEN TRENDS IN NEW NAM SOLUTION AND SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO CENTRAL WI TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

...AZ...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER AZ TODAY WITH A PLUME OF MORE RICH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AZ
WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT.

...CAROLINAS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS GA/SC AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
HELP TO PROMOTE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NC/SC
COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND LAPSE RATES ARE POOR.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

..HART/SMITH.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [121558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121558
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1058 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HAIL 3 WNW MIDWAY 32.90N 90.24W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS PUBLIC

REPORTED AT PIERCE CROSSROAD

0830 PM HAIL CRYSTAL SPRINGS 31.99N 90.36W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH COPIAH MS PUBLIC


&&

$$

DL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [121452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 121452
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
752 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN MERRILL 42.03N 121.60W
09/11/2011 E0.00 INCH KLAMATH OR PUBLIC

REPORTED HEAVY PONDING OF ROADWAYS AND WINDS GUSTING TO
40MPH AROUND 5PM SUNDAY EVENING...


&&

$$

BUNKER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KFGZ 121403
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
703 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL 2 S FLAGSTAFF 35.16N 111.62W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

I40 AND I17 INTERCHANGE INTO WEST FLAGSTAFF


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100249

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121353
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
653 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL 2 S FLAGSTAFF 35.16N 111.62W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

I4- AND I17 INTERCHANGE INTO WEST FLAGSTAFF


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100249

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121331
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
631 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HAIL 2 E FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.58W
09/12/2011 E1.50 INCH COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL IN FLAGSTAFF


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100248

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121325
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
625 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM HAIL FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.62W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NAU CAMPUS


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100247

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121317
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
617 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM HAIL 2 SW FLAGSTAFF 35.17N 111.65W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKE MARY ROAD...2 INCHES DEEP


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100246

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121312
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
612 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM HAIL 1 W FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.64W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100245

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KFGZ 121311
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
611 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 AM HAIL 1 NW FLAGSTAFF 35.20N 111.63W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS...HAIL IS COVERING THE
GROUND


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100244

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [121307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121307
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
607 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM HAIL 1 W FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.64W
09/12/2011 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100244

$$

CO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121249
SWODY1
SPC AC 121247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FOR NE MN...NRN WI...AND UPPER MI...

...NE MN/NRN WI/UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN SK/MB WILL MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD
OVER NRN MN/WI/UPPER MI BY EARLY TONIGHT. A DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL PRECEDE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOP EWD NEAR THE
MN/ONTARIO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 55-60 F RANGE TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 8 C PER KM/ IS
SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG.

THE COMBINATION OF HEATING/MIXING AND A FOCUSED BAND OF ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND MID AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MN ARROWHEAD...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
INTO NRN WI AND SPREAD EWD OVER UPPER MI THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE
LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF
LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND TENDENCY FOR LINEAR ORGANIZATION
WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME.

...ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EWD FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
TEMPER THESE THREATS.

...AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A PRONOUNCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NNEWD FROM NRN BAJA
INTO AZ...E OF THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER CA. THE MOISTENING ALOFT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS
WILL STILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INVERTED-V
PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [121021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 121021
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
421 AM MDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W
09/11/2011 M49 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

WIND GUST OF 49 MPH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MEASURED BY
ASOS.


&&

$$

NJL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120849
SWOD48
SPC AC 120848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A MID-WEEK EXITING EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COOL/STABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE EXTENSIVENESS OF SUCH CONVECTIVELY-UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER...IMPLY A LIMITED
LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE EPISODES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THUS...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120732
SWODY3
SPC AC 120731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z/12TH-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONTINUED MID-WEEK AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WHILE THIS SAME FRONT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY SETTLES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CONUS.

FARTHER WEST...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES SPLIT
FLOW REGIME...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. OVERALL...A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE THE FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...SCATTERED TSTMS
/ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY/ SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT /AND ASSOCIATED POST-FRONTAL HIGH PLAINS REGIME/ ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. COINCIDENT WITH THE
FRONT...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/MODESTLY STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR OWING TO THE INITIAL INFLUENCES OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES UPPER TROUGH. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OWING TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER/PERHAPS
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION...BUT A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT/ MAY YIELD ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL WITH SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...AR/ARKLAMISS...
LATEST NUMERICAL INDICATES THAT A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
CORRIDOR MAY RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING
FRONT AND TO THE EAST OF A POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPEED MAX TO THE INFLUENCE
THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-AIDED TSTMS...A FEW STORMS MAY
YIELD SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


...NORTHEAST SEABOARD/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT UNCERTAIN DESTABILIZATION/POOR LAPSE
RATES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KREV [120719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 120719
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1219 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S NEW WASHOE CITY 39.28N 119.77W
09/11/2011 M1.17 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED IN 45 MINUTES.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE NEW WASHOE CITY 39.36N 119.75W
09/11/2011 E1.50 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0318 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.77W
09/11/2011 M0.69 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED IN LAST ONE HOUR AND 15 MINUTES. SOME PEA SIZED
HAIL.

0318 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE GARDNERVILLE 38.97N 119.69W
09/11/2011 M0.78 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED IN 30 MINUTES.

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW GARDNERVILLE 38.95N 119.77W
09/11/2011 M0.47 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED OVER AN HOUR

0429 PM HEAVY RAIN S LEE VINING 37.96N 119.12W
09/11/2011 E0.50 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30-45
MINUTES.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 W QUINCY 39.92N 121.06W
09/11/2011 E0.25 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LOCAL ROADWAY FLOODING AND
APPROXIMATELY 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD KINGS BEACH 39.24N 120.03W
09/11/2011 PLACER CA NWS EMPLOYEE

STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 28 NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 267. TIME OF THE EVENT IS
APPROXIMATE.

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 E TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.13W
09/11/2011 M0.37 INCH NEVADA CA MESONET

RAINFALL TOTAL BETWEEN 430 AND 530 PM.

0803 PM HEAVY RAIN NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
09/11/2011 M0.57 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM DROPPED 0.57 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

1026 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
09/11/2011 M52.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A 52 MPH WIND GUST OCCURRED AROUND 2PM TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING THUNDERSTORM. 0.21 INCHES OF
RAIN OCCURRED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.


&&

$$

O'HARA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPSR [120642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPSR 120642
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1142 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM HAIL 2 S WINTERSBURG 33.39N 112.87W
09/11/2011 E1.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AT THE PALO VERDE FIRE STATION
NEAR WINTERSBURG REPORTED HAIL VARYING IN SIZE FROM PEA
SIZED TO SILVER DOLLAR SIZED. LARGEST HAIL APPROACHED ONE
AND ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E MARICOPA 33.06N 112.01W
09/11/2011 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED THAT STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAD BLOWN DOWN A BRICK/CEMENT WALL. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDS BLEW DOWN A NUMBER OF TREES. NO
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40KT.

0640 PM DUST STORM 4 SSE PHOENIX 33.49N 112.04W
09/11/2011 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER LOCATED AT AZ51 AND INDIAN
SCHOOL ROAD REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF
A MILE IN BLOWING DUST.

0641 PM DUST STORM 4 NE LAVEEN 33.46N 112.08W
09/11/2011 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR LAVEEN REPORTED VISIBILITY DOWN TO
ONE QUARTER MILE IN BLOWING DUST...AT 7TH AVENUE AND
INTERSTATE 10.


&&

$$

LEINS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 120626
SWODY1
SPC AC 120625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

CORRECTED FOR MOUNTAIN RANGE

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST...AND A SECOND TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES -- ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THIS UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN
WI/UPPER MI AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT YIELDS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. WHILE WARM SECTOR CAPPING -- ESPECIALLY
WITH SWWD EXTENT -- SHOULD DELAY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND LIKELY PRECLUDE INITIATION SW OF
MN/WI...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE/ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO ISOLATED HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO HAVE A DIURNAL
MAXIMUM FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE E
COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE
TROUGH ALSO LIKELY TO INDUCE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING...LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT HERE -- AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES -- WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE -- THUS
LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- WITH ISOLATED/LOW-END HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT POSSIBLE
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPSR [120608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 120608
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1108 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW CAREFREE 33.79N 111.93W
09/10/2011 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT FROM SATURDAY. NUMEROUS LARGE TREE
BRANCHES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF SCOTTSDALE RD. AND
WESTLAND RD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

LEINS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES...

...NORTHEAST STATES/LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF CANADA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. A LEAD PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC...WHILE THE NEXT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SUCH A LARGE SCALE SCENARIO MAY YIELD RELATIVELY NEBULOUS/WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES/OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/HEATING...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
DIURNALLY INCREASE ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT /OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE
TEMPERED ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS BUT PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS AS
WELL. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS
UPSTATE NY.

...AZ/SOUTHWEST STATES...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE EASTWARD-
PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAINING
COMMON FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY YIELD SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AZ.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120559
SWODY1
SPC AC 120557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST...AND A SECOND TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES -- ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THIS UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN
WI/UPPER MI AND THE LK SUPERIOR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT YIELDS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. WHILE WARM SECTOR CAPPING -- ESPECIALLY
WITH SWWD EXTENT -- SHOULD DELAY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND LIKELY PRECLUDE INITIATION SW OF
MN/WI...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE/ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO ISOLATED HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO HAVE A DIURNAL
MAXIMUM FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE E
COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE
TROUGH ALSO LIKELY TO INDUCE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING...LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT HERE -- AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES -- WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE -- THUS
LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- WITH ISOLATED/LOW-END HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT POSSIBLE
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/12/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPHI [120533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 120533
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
133 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL HONEY BROOK 40.09N 75.91W
09/11/2011 E0.75 INCH CHESTER PA PUBLIC

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST BRANDYWINE TWP 40.03N 75.81W
09/11/2011 CHESTER PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN.

0935 PM HAIL COATESVILLE 39.98N 75.82W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH CHESTER PA PUBLIC

0940 PM HAIL 2 E WAGONTOWN 40.01N 75.80W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH CHESTER PA PUBLIC

0955 PM HAIL DOWNINGTOWN 40.01N 75.70W
09/11/2011 E1.25 INCH CHESTER PA PUBLIC

1035 PM LIGHTNING FAIR HILL 39.70N 75.87W
09/11/2011 CECIL MD 911 CALL CENTER

HOUSE HIT BY LIGHTNING.

1045 PM HAIL NEWARK 39.68N 75.76W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH NEW CASTLE DE PUBLIC

1115 PM HAIL HAINESPORT 39.98N 74.83W
09/11/2011 E0.88 INCH BURLINGTON NJ PUBLIC

1115 PM TSTM WND DMG DREXEL HILL 39.95N 75.30W
09/11/2011 DELAWARE PA PUBLIC

TREE LIMBS DOWN.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 40.04N 74.65W
09/11/2011 BURLINGTON NJ 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND UTILITY POLES DOWN.

1135 PM HAIL JULIUSTOWN 40.01N 74.67W
09/11/2011 E1.25 INCH BURLINGTON NJ PUBLIC

1135 PM HAIL PEMBERTON 39.97N 74.69W
09/11/2011 E0.88 INCH BURLINGTON NJ PUBLIC

1145 PM HAIL WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
09/11/2011 E0.88 INCH BURLINGTON NJ PUBLIC

1145 PM HAIL FORT DIX 40.00N 74.61W
09/11/2011 E0.88 INCH BURLINGTON NJ PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100735 PHI1100722 PHI1100733 PHI1100734 PHI1100732
PHI1100724 PHI1100731 PHI1100730 PHI1100736 PHI1100723 PHI1100726
PHI1100727 PHI1100728 PHI1100729

$$

IOVINO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSTO [120531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 120531 CCA
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1030 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE CAMINO 38.72N 120.64W
09/11/2011 E1.97 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN OVER AN ONE INCH IN A HOUR. FREQ LTG CLOUD TO
AIR, CLOUD TO GROUND, CLOUD TO CLOUD.


UPDATE FOR RAINFALL TOTAL AT 8 PM TODAY

&&
POWELL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLMK [120522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 120522
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM FLOOD HARRODSBURG 37.77N 84.85W
09/12/2011 MERCER KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SMALL SECTION OF MORRIS DRIVE UNDER 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
WATER...SMALL SECTION OF COMMERCIAL DRIVE DOWN TO ONE
LANE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101133

$$

13

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [120445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 120445
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM HAIL NWS LAS VEGAS 36.05N 115.19W
09/11/2011 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT FOUR MINUTES AT WFO LAS
VEGAS. 0.18 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN APPROXIMATELY TEN
MINUTES.

0250 PM HEAVY RAIN THE STRIP 36.12N 115.18W
09/11/2011 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LAS VEGAS AREA BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FEW INCHES OF
WATER WERE ON LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD NEAR CITY CENTER AND
ALSO NEAR THE IMPERIAL PALACE.

0255 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSW DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.14N 115.17W
09/11/2011 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LAS VEGAS AREA BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED SEVERAL INCHES OF
WATER FLOODED THE CIRCUS CIRCUS ADVENTUREDOME.

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE DOWNTOWN LAS VEGAS 36.16N 115.13W
09/11/2011 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LAS VEGAS AREA BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A HOME ON THE
15TH STREET BETWEEN FREMONT AND CHARLESTON HAD MORE THAN
A FOOT OF WATER INSIDE OF IT.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN LAS VEGAS BAY 36.17N 115.15W
09/11/2011 M0.98 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

RAIN GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN LAS VEGAS RECORDED 0.98 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. A GAUGE NEAR THE VANDENBERG
DETENTION BASIN RECORDED 0.63. WATER PONDING UP TO THE
CURBS OF STREETS WAS REPORTED FROM DOWNTOWN LAS VEGAS TO
NORTH LAS VEGAS.

0306 PM HAIL 5 NNE LAS VEGAS BAY 36.24N 115.11W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR CRAIG ROAD AND INTERSTATE 15.
THE EVENT TIME WAS BASED ON RADAR.

0314 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ESE NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.25N 115.07W
09/11/2011 E60.00 MPH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS NEAR NELLIS AFB.

0315 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE DOWNTOWN LAS VEGA 36.23N 115.12W
09/11/2011 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LAS VEGAS BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A CAR WAS STRANDED IN
FLOODWATERS UP TO WINDOWS NEAR ALEXANDER AND LOSEE.

0625 PM HAIL BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/11/2011 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED HAIL 1/4 TO 3/8 INCH IN DIAMETER IN
BOULDER CITY.

0905 PM HAIL WIKIEUP 34.70N 113.62W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG
HIGHWAY 93 NEAR WIKIEUP.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPHI [120430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 120430
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST BRANDYWINE TWP 40.03N 75.81W
09/11/2011 CHESTER PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN.

1035 PM LIGHTNING FAIR HILL 39.70N 75.87W
09/11/2011 CECIL MD 911 CALL CENTER

HOUSE HIT BY LIGHTNING.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 40.04N 74.65W
09/11/2011 BURLINGTON NJ 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND UTILITY POLES DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100722 PHI1100724 PHI1100723

$$

IOVINO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KVEF [120428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120428
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
927 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL WIKIEUP 34.70N 113.62W
09/11/2011 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 93 NEAR
WIKIEUP


&&

$$

SC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPHI [120416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 120416
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST BRANDYWINE TWP 40.03N 75.81W
09/11/2011 CHESTER PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 40.04N 74.65W
09/11/2011 BURLINGTON NJ 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND UTILITY POLES DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100722 PHI1100723

$$

IOVINO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.