SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121831
NCZ000-SCZ000-122000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121831Z - 122000Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
CELLS INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING IN SERN NC ALONG A
SFC-TROUGH ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM NEAR CHARLESTON SC TO NORTH OF
WILMINGTON NC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN APPALACHIANS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO
THE LIFT...WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PRESENT IN THE ERN CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD HELP THE DOWNDRAFTS TO
PERSIST AND INTENSIFY. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 09/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 34417720 34917640 35677585 35997638 36017737 35697815
35317921 35087991 34548036 33868053 33358011 33087930
33677872 33747787 34417720
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