Tuesday, October 21, 2008

KDDC [220356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220356
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1056 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NE HICKOK 37.64N 101.13W
10/21/2008 E60 MPH GRANT KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220346
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1046 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM HAIL 8 N BIG BOW 37.68N 101.56W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS PUBLIC

HAIL WAS ESTIMATED FROM NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 MPH.


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220329
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1029 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM HAIL 2 W DIGHTON 38.48N 100.50W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH LANE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

MGERARD

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KDDC [220328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220328
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1028 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N GARDEN CITY 38.01N 100.87W
10/21/2008 M67 MPH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220321
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1021 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM HAIL S AMY 38.45N 100.60W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH LANE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND AND KNOCKING LEAVES OFF OF
TREES.


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [220307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220307
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1007 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 PM TSTM WND GST SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
10/21/2008 E65 MPH SCOTT KS STORM CHASER

THE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 70 MPH.


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220305
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1005 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL 11 ESE SHALLOW WATER 38.31N 100.72W
10/21/2008 E1.00 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

HAIL ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE.


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220249
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 PM HAIL 17 WSW JETMORE 37.99N 100.18W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH HODGEMAN KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [220246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220246
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HAIL 19 WSW JETMORE 37.98N 100.22W
10/21/2008 E0.75 INCH HODGEMAN KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [220241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220241
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
941 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 PM HAIL 21 NW SYRACUSE 38.20N 102.02W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH HAMILTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MGERARD

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KDDC [220237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...cor

NWUS53 KDDC 220237 CCA
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
931 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
10/21/2008 65 MPH HAMILTON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLICE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220231
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
931 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
10/21/2008 E0 MPH HAMILTON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLICE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [220228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDDC 220228
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
928 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 13 N GARDEN CITY 38.17N 100.86W
10/21/2008 E1.75 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [220226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220226
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
926 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL GARDEN CITY 37.98N 100.86W
10/21/2008 E1.75 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KDDC [220208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220208
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 13 NNE GARDEN CITY 38.15N 100.77W
10/21/2008 E0.88 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2338

ACUS11 KWNS 220159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220158
KSZ000-COZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 920...

VALID 220158Z - 220300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 920
CONTINUES.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND EAST-CENTRAL CO.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/700-500MB LR OF 7.9 C/KM AT DDC/...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ROTATION. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGER CELLS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND MAIN UPPER FORCING/COOLING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST OF CURRENT WATCH...WITH LOCAL WATCH
EXTENSIONS POSSIBLE.

..HART.. 10/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38120252 38660165 39750088 39850027 39109986 38079998
37380043 37100163 37560247 38120252

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KPUB [220154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 220154
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BRISTOL 38.12N 102.32W
10/21/2008 PROWERS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE 10-12 INCH LIMBS BLEW OFF OLDER COTTONWOOD
TREE AS GUST FRONT MOVED THROUGH.


&&

$$

MN

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KDDC [220139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220139
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
839 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM HAIL 10 ESE GARDEN CITY 37.92N 100.69W
10/21/2008 E1.25 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

26

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KPUB [220114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 220114
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
714 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM TSTM WND GST EADS 38.48N 102.78W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EPETERSE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220055
SWODY1
SPC AC 220051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT ON CYCLONIC
SIDE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO CNTRL
CO AS OF 00Z...WILL SURGE SEWD OVERNIGHT...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL BY 22/12Z.

RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT SFC-850 MB COLD FRONT IS
UNDERGOING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING/FRONTOGENESIS WITH DEEP LAYER
ASCENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BEING AUGMENTED BY STRONGLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. 00Z DDC SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME REMAINING CAP FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS TO BE ALONG OR IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF COLD FRONT WHERE
MESOSCALE ASCENT WITHIN ANAFRONTAL AIRFLOW REGIME OVERCOMES
ABOVE-MENTIONED CAP. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO
ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF GROWING STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS WITH
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER NERN KS
IN WAKE OF MCV MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER SERN CO ESEWD ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO FAR SWRN MO. LOW-LEVEL
WAA TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
FORCING THIS ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/ARISING FROM RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 10/22/2008

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KBOU [220042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 220042
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
642 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NW HASWELL 38.63N 103.39W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

NO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

0615 PM HAIL 15 SE KARVAL 38.58N 103.33W
10/21/2008 M1.00 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL ALONG ROADSIDE 2-3 INCHES DEEP. MOST QUARTER SIZE.

0608 PM HAIL 10 E KARVAL 38.73N 103.34W
10/21/2008 M1.00 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BENTON

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KBOU [220030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 220030
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
630 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NW HASWELL 38.63N 103.39W
10/21/2008 E60.00 MPH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

NO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

0608 PM HAIL 10 E KARVAL 38.73N 103.34W
10/21/2008 M1.00 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BENTON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 920

WWUS20 KWNS 212225
SEL0
SPC WW 212225
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 425 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING ALONG FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART

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KLBF [212203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 212203
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
503 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 9 NE KEYSTONE 41.31N 101.47W
10/21/2008 E0.75 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [212157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 212157
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
457 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 14 SSE ARTHUR 41.39N 101.59W
10/21/2008 E0.75 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [212117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 212117
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 PM HAIL 9 SW ARTHUR 41.48N 101.81W
10/21/2008 M0.75 INCH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2337

ACUS11 KWNS 212034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212034
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212034Z - 212200Z

AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NCNTRL CO...THE
THREAT FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY INCREASE. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE REACHING FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS A BY EARLY EVENING WHERE
WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE WY WITH A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT
SEWD ACROSS SW NEB INTO WRN KS AND NRN OK. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE
REACHED THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A RUC
ANALYZED VORT MAX IN NCNTRL CO. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE ERN
PLAINS OF CO...CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE GOODLAND
AND DENVER WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF
-16 TO -18C/ SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGER HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE
CO-KS STATE-LINE EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38000170 38300294 39090391 39750397 40640381 40960350
41100309 41050251 40300204 38860113 38000170

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...LARGELY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO STG AND DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MT SWD TO NRN PORTIONS CO/UT BORDER. STRONGLY
MERIDIONAL/130-150 KT JET MAX AT 250 MB IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EWD
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND ALONG CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE AOA 100 KT
SPEED MAX BUILDS SWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TO SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ASSUMES STG CYCLONIC CURVATURE. BY END OF PERIOD...TROUGH SHOULD BE
CROSSING HIGH PLAINS...AND EXTENDING FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO TX
PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ALOFT AND RELATED
ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE SCALE UVV ARE EXPECTED IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET MAX...ACROSS S-CENTRAL PLAINS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM WRN DAKOTAS SSWWD ACROSS
SERN WY -- IS FCST TO INTENSIFY AND PLUNGE SWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS TO
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND E-CENTRAL/SERN NM BY 12Z. INITIALLY WEAK SFC
LOW -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SERN CO -- IS FCST TO BECOME MORE
WELL-DEFINED AND INTENSE...SHIFTING/REDEVELOPING NEWD ALONG FRONT TO
NERN KS BY END OF PERIOD. BROAD SFC WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- REINFORCED
ACROSS WRN KS BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING ON EDGE OF LOW CLOUD
FIELD -- IS ANALYZED FROM SWRN MO WNWWD ACROSS EXTREME S-CENTRAL
KS...NWWD TO SWRN NEB. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THIS BOUNDARY FROM
NW-SE WITH TIME.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECT STG LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- NOW SUPPORTING ENVIRONMENT FOR
TSTMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN/WRN CO -- TO SHIFT ONTO HIGH PLAINS
DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BOTH AT AND ABOVE SFC. AS THIS OCCURS...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE. ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD EXPAND/BACKBUILD SWWD INVOF COLD FRONT
WITH TIME...AS FRONT MOVES SEWD AND EWD ACROSS REGION. AS COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES WARM FRONT...AND STRONGEST LARGER SCALE LIFT
OVERSPREADS AREA FROM NW-SE...MOST FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SHUNTED SEWD. RESULT OF THESE PROCESSES COULD BE NET
FAN-SHAPED GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE REGIME SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...AND INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SVR THREAT WILL PEAK THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH BY 09-12Z TIME FRAME AS FOREGOING NEAR-SFC AIR MASS BECOMES
MORE STABLE.

STG-SVR GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...UNTIL FOREGOING NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS
SUFFICIENTLY TO RAISE BASE OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER ABOVE SFC.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ACTIVITY BOTH NEAR AND BEHIND COLD
FRONT. PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE LINEAR FOR MOST OF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EARLY/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY ATTAIN
SUPERCELLULAR MODE. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY THAT CAN INTERACT WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BEFORE INFLOW LAYER
BECOMES ELEVATED...MAY POSE TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN VERY LARGE SIZE
OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED IN THAT FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR
MORE THAN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX TO
ARKLATEX REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD...AS LOWER GREAT LAKES CYCLONE EJECTS OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM CA TO NRN ROCKIES. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL MT SWD ACROSS WY/ID
BORDER REGION -- IS BACKED ON W SIDE BY 130-150 KT 250 MB JET CORE.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 AND
EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH CLOSED 500 MB CYCLONE EVOLVING OVER
S-CENTRAL PLAINS BY 23/00Z. MESOSCALE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG
PROGS REGARDING SPECIFIC CENTER POSITION OF LOW BY THAT
TIME...WHETHER OVER SOME PORTION CENTRAL/SRN KS OR NRN/NWRN
OK...HOWEVER STG CONSENSUS APPEARS IN SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THIS CYCLONE BECOMING DEEP AND QUASISTATIONARY OVER KS BY END
OF PERIOD.

ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS ERN WY
AND WRN DAKOTAS -- IS FCST TO PLUNGE SEWD OVER SRN HIGH
PLAINS...MOST OF OK AND PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL TX BY 23/00Z. BY
24/12Z...FRONT SHOULD REACH NWRN GULF...LA AND ERN AR...OCCLUDING
NWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO INCREASINGLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER KS.

...CENTRAL/ERN TX TO ARKLATEX REGION...
AS CONTINUATION OF REGIME MENTIONED IN DAY-1 OUTLOOK...STG/ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ALONG AND
PERHAPS BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK AND N TX.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN REGIME OF STG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE. COUNTERBALANCING AFFECT IN
MORNING HOURS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER...WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE STRENGTH OF DOWNDRAFTS AND LEADING-EDGE COLD POOL
FLOW.

AS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXPECT SVR
PROBABILITY TO INCREASE. COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND MOIST
ADVECTION WILL BOOST INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY AND LOWER THAT LAYER TO
SFC-BASED...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F
ARE FCST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND E TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...S
OF TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GULF AND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES THAT
WILL ACT AS A DROSOTHERMAL WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIE
FROM AL COAST NWWD ACROSS NRN LA AND SWRN AR BY 22/21Z...BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE WITH WWD EXTENT. S OF MOISTURE BOUNDARY...E OF COLD
FRONT AND N OF UPPER TX COAST...MODIFIED NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...AMIDST STRONGLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS THAT INCREASE IN SIZE WITH NWD EXTENT.

MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FROM E-CENTRAL/NE TX NWD
ACROSS AR/OK BORDER AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHARPLY N
OF DEW POINT BOUNDARY. AREA OF MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
JUXTAPOSITION -- DENOTED BY CATEGORICAL RISK -- SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND 0-1 KM SRH
150-200 J/KG ASSUMING DEVIANT SUPERCELL MOTIONS. STORM MODE MAY BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR...SUGGESTING PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
WITH MRGL SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY MAY POSE TORNADO AND ENHANCED HAIL THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY
BACKBUILD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX WHERE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH
SWD EXTENT. EXPECT NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER TO DIMINISH CAPE AND BRING DOWN SVR PROBABILITIES...CONCURRENT
WITH OCCLUSION AND ONSET OF FILLING STAGE OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2008

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KMSO [211635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 211635
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1035 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SALMON 45.18N 113.89W
10/20/2008 LEMHI ID NEWSPAPER

A NUMBER OF TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES WERE BLOWN DOWN LATE
LAST NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
THE WIND SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT OR ABOVE 55 MPH BY A
LOCAL RANCHER.


&&

$$

DICKERSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211611
SWODY1
SPC AC 211608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK...
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SEASONABLY STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SURGES
ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO LIMIT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH LOWER-MID 50S
F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PW/S AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AHEAD OF DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL PROVIDE STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASE IN ROBUST MOIST CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN CO/SWRN NEB.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 500-750
J/KG OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. EXPECT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A LINEAR MCS OR BROKEN
LINES...LIKELY BEING UNDERCUT AND FORCED QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING BY STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH AREA OF
GREATER INSTABILITY OVER WRN KS...BUT EXPECT COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING CAP WILL BEGIN INHIBITING EFFECTIVE
PARCELS FROM ROOTING INTO THE SURFACE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WRN
OK/CENTRAL KS WITH COMBINATION OF STRONG GRADIENT/POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE WINDS AND WEAK MUCAPE SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES INTO THIS REGION.

...NERN OK INTO S-CENTRAL/SERN KS THIS AFTERNOON...
SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD AND SHEAR
APART OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN KS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
MAY SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
MODEST HEATING OCCURS ALONG EVOLVING SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING
NWD FROM E-CENTRAL INTO NWRN OK LATE THIS MORNING. SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN VERY FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INTO SERN KS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG/NORTH
OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. SHOULD ANY CELL ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE/DEVELOP LOW LEVEL ROTATION GIVEN
DEGREE OF SHEAR. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE MAY
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THREAT IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 10/21/2008

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KJAN [211531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 211531
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 AM HAIL 3 NE BROOKSVILLE 33.26N 88.55W
10/07/2008 E0.88 INCH NOXUBEE MS PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL ALONG THE NOXUBEE/LOWNDES CO LINE
AT A CATFISH FARM.

0304 AM HAIL 1 W COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.42W
10/07/2008 E1.75 INCH LOWNDES MS PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FELL ON THE W SIDE OF TOWN. SOME
VEHICLES WERE DENTED AND A FEW WINDOWS WERE BROKEN OUT OF
SOME BUSINESSES.

0305 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF THE COLUMBUS.
TREEES ON POWERLINES...CAUSING OUTAGES. SEVERAL HOMES
DAMAGED.

0310 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES FELL ON FOUR HOUSES AND A SHELL GAS STATION. AN
APARTMENT COMPLEX WAS EVACUATED AFTER A FALLEN TREE
RUPTURED THE LINE. POWER OUTAGES REPORTED AROUND THE CITY
OF COLUMBUS.

0310 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES FELL ON 4 HOUSES AND A SHELL GAS STATION. AN
APARTMENT COMPLEX WAS EVACUATED AFTER A FALLEN TREE
RUPTURED THE GAS LINE. POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED AROUND
THE CITY OF COLUMBUS

0310 AM HAIL COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 E0.75 INCH LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [211531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 211531
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 AM HAIL 3 NE BROOKSVILLE 33.26N 88.55W
10/07/2008 E0.88 INCH NOXUBEE MS PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL ALONG THE NOXUBEE/LOWNDES CO LINE
AT A CATFISH FARM.

0304 AM HAIL 1 W COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.42W
10/07/2008 E1.75 INCH LOWNDES MS PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FELL ON THE W SIDE OF TOWN. SOME
VEHICLES WERE DENTED AND A FEW WINDOWS WERE BROKEN OUT OF
SOME BUSINESSES.


&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS BY TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OVER SE MT WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTN WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING SEWD
ALONG THE HIGH PLNS. AN ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SURGE
SEWD THROUGH THE PLNS...REACHING THE CNTRL DAKS...CNTRL NEB AND SERN
CO BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE TX PNHDL WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO KS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
12Z SOUNDINGS/GOES PWAT SENSORS SUGGEST THAT A MODESTLY MOIST AIR
MASS /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LWR 50S AND PWATS OF 3/4-1 INCH/ WAS IN
PLACE ALONG/S OF THE SRN PLNS FRONT. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE APCHG ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NWD
BENEATH THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
EMANATING FROM THE SRN PLATEAU. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR A MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG FROM
SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY MID-AFTN.

RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY COMMENCE BY MID-AFTN AS STRONGLY
DIVERGENT UPR JET EXIT REGION DIGS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS.
LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AND AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE
ALONG THE CDFNT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS. FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A
LARGELY ANAFRONTAL TYPE OF AIRFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGER
SCALE CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR/SLIGHTLY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND LIKELY GROWING STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS WILL
BOOST RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL. SVR
THREATS WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS INTO THE TX/OK
PNHDLS AND THE WRN HALF OF OK OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TODAY FARTHER TO THE E
OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK. SATL DEPICTS A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
MIGRATING TOWARD THE TX PNHDL/OK THIS MORNING. STORMS DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG/N OF THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY TONIGHT ALONG
THE STRENGTHENING AND BROAD SLY LLJ AXIS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN FARTHER TO THE W...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. HOWEVER....LOW-LVL SHEAR INVOF THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH HAIL...DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD THE
LWR MO VLY WOULD MOSTLY BE AN ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 10/21/2008

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KTFX [211126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 211126
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
526 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.69W
10/21/2008 M58.00 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

ELKHORN RAWS ELEVATION 6010 FT


&&

$$

JBLANK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210900
SWOD48
SPC AC 210900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER THE ERN GULF DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 24/...AND
THEN SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES THROUGH
DAY 5. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS SYSTEM DAYS 4-5...WEAK LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS LIMITED
INSTABILITY -- SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE ALOFT DAY 3...WITH THE FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY-STACKED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY QUIESCENT WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM A CONVECTIVE PERSPECTIVE.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MOIST LOW LEVELS BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE WARM
SECTOR SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...A MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY.

WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW SPREADING SLOWLY EWD SUGGESTING
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WILL INTRODUCE A
SMALL/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HINDER THE OVERALL THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY
EWD...A MUCH STRONGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST...LIKELY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/WRN
MO REGION BY 23/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER INVOF ERN KS/NWRN
MO/SERN NEB/SWRN IA...OCCLUDING WITH TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT
SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FRONT
SHOULD CROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE PUSHING SEWD OFF THE TX COAST
INTO THE WRN GULF.

...E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE SEWD-MOVING
FRONT...AS SLY WARM SECTOR FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE NWD. WHILE
GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...SOME HEATING AND THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 750
J/KG ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...AND AS FAR N AS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD NEAR -- AND PARTICULARLY TO THE COOL SIDE -- OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...WITH THIS TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FROM SERN OK/THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO E TX.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
AND THEN BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS E TX AND LA. PRESUMING THIS IS THE CASE...THE MAIN THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD BE HAIL. THE GREATER THREAT FOR STORMS TO
REMAIN SURFACE-BASED APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS AR...WHERE A MORE N-S
ALIGNMENT AND SLOWER ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED. IF A CLUSTER
OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD
POOL...THEN A SURGING GUST FRONT -- AIDED BY FAIRLY STRONG WLY FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE -- COULD BECOME THE EFFECTIVE FOCUS FOR NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS THAN IS FORECAST ATTM...BUT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS AR...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS SOMEWHAT
UNLIKELY. WILL INTRODUCE 15% PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THIS
FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY TO REMAIN A LESSER THREAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER DARK...AS THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS STABILIZES DIURNALLY.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210559
SWODY1
SPC AC 210556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. INCREASING AGEOSTROPHY IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
ZONE OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER ERN WY WILL
DEEPEN TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE SURGING SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS
SWWD THROUGH SWRN NEB TO LOW PRESSURE OVER E-CNTRL CO BY EARLY
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS
SRN OK INTO WRN TX WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH OK INTO KS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CURRENT GOES/GPS PW DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF .8-.9 INCH AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/ IS PRESENT INVOF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO SRN OK. STRENGTHENING SLY/SELY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE THROUGH OK INTO
KS ALONG AND S OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH AN EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
TODAY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL.

LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH DIVERGENT UPPER JET
EXIT REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. ANAFRONTAL AIRFLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG OR PERHAPS IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...THE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF GROWING STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING ALONG STRONG COLD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
WRN/CNTRL KS INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND THE WRN HALF OF OK
TONIGHT.

AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY INCREASE TODAY FARTHER TO THE E
OVER KS/OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE N OF SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NWD WHERE WAA
AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER
ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT
FROM ERN KS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS A BROADER AND MORE INTENSE
LLJ DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING...PRIMARY TROUGH. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MOIST THAN THAT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

OF INTEREST IS THE NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
RETREATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED...ROTATING STORMS. SOME SMALL HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS...HOWEVER A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/21/2008

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