KPUB [292108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292108
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM HAIL TOWNER 38.47N 102.08W
05/29/2008 M0.88 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

LWALROD

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KGLD [292059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 292059
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 4 W OAKLEY 39.13N 100.93W
05/29/2008 E1.25 INCH LOGAN KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KGLD [292059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 292059
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM HAIL 9 ENE WINONA 39.11N 101.09W
05/29/2008 M0.88 INCH LOGAN KS AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KRIW [292056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 292056
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
256 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 4 SE LANDER 42.79N 108.67W
05/29/2008 M1.00 INCH FREMONT WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

DBERC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1082

ACUS11 KWNS 292055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292055
NEZ000-SDZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...FAR SRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 386...

VALID 292055Z - 292230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 386 CONTINUES.

A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT INITIATE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 386 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NEB AND SRN SD. A WARM FRONT
EXISTS NEAR THE NEB-SD STATE-LINE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN IA.
CUMULUS IS PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NEB AND
THIS CU FIELD SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER ECNTRL NEB IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL FAVOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL AND NE NEB.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

41729870 41729970 41660101 42330145 42790133 43080081
43179899 43009776 42439711 41709761

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KABQ [292042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 292042
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL YESO 34.44N 104.61W
05/29/2008 M0.88 INCH DE BACA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JWACHTER

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KLBF [292038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292038
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM HAIL 9 S CURTIS 40.50N 100.51W
05/29/2008 M1.75 INCH FRONTIER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KGLD [292037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 292037
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SW WALLACE 38.82N 101.71W
05/29/2008 M61 MPH WALLACE KS MESONET

&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KLBF [292036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292036
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM HAIL 4 W STOCKVILLE 40.53N 100.46W
05/29/2008 M1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [292035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292035
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 7 NE WELLFLEET 40.82N 100.64W
05/29/2008 E2.50 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

MBYRD

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KLBF [292027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292027
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM HAIL 9 S CURTIS 40.50N 100.51W
05/29/2008 E1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SHEETS OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [292020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292020
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM HAIL 15 S MAYWOOD 40.44N 100.62W
05/29/2008 M1.75 INCH FRONTIER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS STILL ONGOING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KGLD [292020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 292020
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 PM HAIL 9 SW WINONA 38.97N 101.36W
05/29/2008 M1.00 INCH LOGAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KLBF [292005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 292005
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 6 E HAYES CENTER 40.51N 100.91W
05/29/2008 E1.75 INCH HAYES NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KGLD [292005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 292005
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 PM HAIL 5 S WALLACE 38.84N 101.59W
05/29/2008 E1.00 INCH WALLACE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KRIW [292004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 292004
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
203 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM TORNADO 10 NE THERMOPOLIS 43.75N 108.07W
05/29/2008 HOT SPRINGS WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY PATROL EAST OF KIRBY SPOTTED A TORNADO.

&&

$$

RD/AR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291957
SWODY1
SPC AC 291955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF WRN IA....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/NRN KS...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN
SD...SRN MN...MUCH OF IA AND NW MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY....

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM LIKELY TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A DEEPER...BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS A SERIES OF SMALLER
SCALE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN STATES. ONE OF
THESE IMPULSES ALREADY APPEARS TO BE LIFTING INTO THE CREST OF THE
PLAINS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY EVENING. AND...THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ELIMINATION OF INHIBITION WHICH
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AND...ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN IN A LINGERING ZONE OF LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAVE MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS SLOWING DESTABILIZATION
NORTH/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT.

THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AND...HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE
SPREADING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...BENEATH A SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CURVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
ROUGHLY NORTH/EAST OF HILL CITY KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
WHERE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR...AND NEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL ALONG A 40-60 KT SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 30/00Z. WITHIN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR....LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES IN LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS.

ALTHOUGH UPSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO A SEVERE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE TO FORM AS INHIBITION WEAKENS
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN EAST OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 05/29/2008

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KLBF [291945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 291945
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 12 S HAYES CENTER 40.34N 101.02W
05/29/2008 E0.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

MBYRD

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KGLD [291943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 291943
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 PM HAIL 10 NW CULBERTSON 40.33N 100.97W
05/29/2008 E0.88 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGLD [291934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 291934
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HAIL STRATTON NE 40.15N 101.23W
05/29/2008 E0.88 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 386

WWUS20 KWNS 291930
SEL6
SPC WW 291930
KSZ000-NEZ000-300300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WATCH
AREA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG
SUPPORT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL. POTENTIAL
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385

WWUS20 KWNS 291911
SEL5
SPC WW 291911
COZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO
PART OF WESTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO
2000 J/KG SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGH BASES SUGGEST
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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KDVN [291904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 291904
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
204 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W SOLON 41.80N 91.57W
05/25/2008 JOHNSON IA EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCATED AT LAKE MACBRIDE STATE PARK. DAMAGE TO THE BOAT
RENTAL DOCKS...AND THE RENTAL BOATS...NEAR THE PARK/S
BEACH. A TOTAL OF 48 BOATS...WHICH WERE ALL SECURED TO
THE DOCK...HAD BEEN BLOWN AS FAR AS THREE MILES AWAY FROM
THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATION. NO DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. TIME
ESTIMATED. DELAYED REPORT.

1146 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW SOLON 41.79N 91.51W
05/25/2008 JOHNSON IA NWS STORM SURVEY

FRONT PORCH AWNING LIFTED UP AND OVER A HOUSE.
ALSO...DAMAGE TO THE HOUSE/S ROOF INCLUDING MISSING
SHINGLES. DAMAGE TO NEARBY TREES. LOCATED ALONG QUINCY RD
NE. TIME ESTIMATED. DELAYED REPORT.

1147 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SOLON 41.79N 91.50W
05/25/2008 JOHNSON IA NWS STORM SURVEY

GRAIN TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT BROKEN OFF THE TOP OF GRAIN
BINS. LOCATED ALONG JORDAN CREEK RD NE. TIME ESTIMATED.
DELAYED REPORT.

&&

$$

JAZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1081

ACUS11 KWNS 291845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291844
NEZ000-KSZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291844Z - 291945Z

A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO APPEAR LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISSUANCE LIKELY BY 20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER ERN CO AND THE CUMULUS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SW
NEB AND NW KS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST EAST OF
THE MCD AREA SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL
AND SRN NEB.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

42380028 41950109 40840113 39710111 39220056 39639906
41999947

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 384

WWUS20 KWNS 291834
SEL4
SPC WW 291834
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AKRON
COLORADO TO 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHADRON NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS WATCH AREA AS LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS
BUT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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KDMX [291817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 291817
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
117 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM LIGHTNING 1 NE WATERLOO 42.50N 92.34W
05/29/2008 BLACK HAWK IA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** PERSON OUTSIDE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT
WATERLOO POST OFFICE. FROM KWWL-TV.

&&

$$

SMALL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1080

ACUS11 KWNS 291810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291810
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-291915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291810Z - 291915Z

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED/DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM.
THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY WHERE CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL
SOON DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO INTO ERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD WRN KS AND THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE
THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..DARROW.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

33120550 37400389 38440188 37730091 35340233 33070379

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1079

ACUS11 KWNS 291724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291724
NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291724Z - 291900Z

A HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY AND
NRN CO EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC
LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE
MD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
RUC ANALYSIS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 4 TO 5 KM AS EVIDENT ON
THE SRN WYOMING PROFILER SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AND THIS WILL DRY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH TIME PUTTING A HAMPER ON DESTABILIZATION. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO MAKE STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

41170504 42070623 43890644 45090678 46070638 46230565
45960476 44760456 43550468 42700432 41620297 40440284
40230433

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291718
SWODY2
SPC AC 291716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF SE
IOWA...NE/E CNTRL MO...SRN WI...MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL IL...AND WRN
IND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE S CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL LATER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL JET...WHICH HAS EMANATED FROM
THE PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE NATION. MODELS INDICATE
THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
WILL TRANSITION TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT...CONSOLIDATING TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE LATTER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO MAINTAIN A MORE OR LESS EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF RIDGING BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN A SIGNIFICANT BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.

...MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF A WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
...ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AN INITIALLY
COOL/DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING
WEAKENING/RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS A
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD. AND...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT AT LEAST THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS PROBABLY
WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRLY
DEEP FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN
BY 31/03Z.

MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TO THE
SOUTH/WEST OF THE POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY FROM
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE 50+
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THAT TIME...LOW- LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADIC POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE MORE
DISCRETE EARLY STORMS...BEFORE PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER
LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

HAIL...SOME QUITE LARGE...IS ALSO LIKELY IN MOST STORMS. AND...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME A PROMINENT THREAT IN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS.

IF IT TURNS OUT LOWER MICHIGAN IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY
EARLY DAY CONVECTION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. BUT...A STRENGTHENING ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ACROSS
THIS REGION TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT/TRAINING CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 05/29/2008

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KMFR [291606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 291606
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM HEAVY RAIN N BONANZA 42.20N 121.40W
05/29/2008 M0.87 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 7 PM TO 9 AM. 1.34 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291604
SWODY1
SPC AC 291601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN
IA AND FAR SERN SD......

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
KS...WCENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST SD... AND SOUTHWEST
MN......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE
TO SOUTHERN WI......

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NE...NRN KS EWD ACROSS IA AND FAR SERN SD...

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG THERMODYNAMICS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND WIND
MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE PROVIDING NOT ONLY
THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY NWD THRU THE
PLAINS INTO NEB TO THE E OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND DRY LINE. BY MID
AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW WILL BE SWRN NEB WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD
TO VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER.

WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AOA 2500 J/KG AND STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAKEST CINH OVER CENTRAL NEB
INTO NWRN KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS TAKING
PLACE.

SUPERCELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVELY EWD VICINITY
AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN NEB INTO IA.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTS LONG LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL
AND AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSCALE BY THIS EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM ERN NEB INTO IA.

FURTHER S INTO NRN KS...WHILE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED
DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE BOTH TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL AS MLCAPES WILL
BE ABOVE 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 5OKT RANGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER S ALONG TX/NM BORDER
AS NOW APPEARS THAT DRY LINE WILL MIX NO FURTHER E THAN THE BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

..HALES/DARROW.. 05/29/2008

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KDMX [291508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 291508
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1007 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM TSTM WND DMG BADGER 42.61N 94.14W
05/29/2008 WEBSTER IA TRAINED SPOTTER

METAL ROOF BENT FROM HIGH WIND SPEEDS.

&&

$$

DEROY

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KUNR [291446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 291446
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
846 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 3 N ECHETA 44.49N 105.86W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH CAMPBELL WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MSMITH

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

620
WOUS40 KWNS 291439
PWOSPC
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-292245-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING
THE HIGH RISK FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN WI.

VERY WARM...MOIST AND BUOYANT AIRMASS IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS NORTHWARD SURGE IN INSTABILITY WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.

MID-HIGH LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. IN ADDITION...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD
SRN WI.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..DARROW.. 05/29/2008

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KDMX [291437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 291437
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
937 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 AM TSTM WND GST BADGER 42.61N 94.14W
05/29/2008 E70 MPH WEBSTER IA TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY STRONG WINDS LASTED AROUND 3 MINUTES ALONG WITH PEA
SIZED HAIL AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

SSEARCY

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KBOU [291342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 291342
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
740 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 PM HAIL 5 W AULT 40.58N 104.83W
05/28/2008 M0.88 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM HAIL 2 WNW AULT 40.60N 104.77W
05/28/2008 M0.75 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM HAIL 21 N NEW RAYMER 40.91N 103.83W
05/28/2008 M1.00 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KMFR [291319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 291319
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
619 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM HEAVY RAIN WSW KENO 42.13N 121.93W
05/29/2008 M1.08 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291223
SWODY1
SPC AC 291220

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
KS...CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST SD...AND SOUTHWEST MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO
SOUTHERN WI...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED
TODAY OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA/SD...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER WESTERN CO. THIS
FEATURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/NEB/SD/IA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ARE TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL COMBINE TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST ALONG THE SURFACE
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NEB/KS BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WARM SECTOR IN EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK CINH AND STRONG CAPE.
THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER LCLS...STRONGER LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY...AND MORE SUBTLE FORCING. THESE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
TORNADOES. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF SIG TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT
THIS TIME TO EXTEND FROM ONL/GRI THROUGH THE SUX AREA INTO WESTERN
IA. LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
DARK IN THIS AREA WITH A SUSTAINED THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES.
EVENTUALLY...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE
INTO THIS AREA AND LIKELY ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A FAST-MOVING
MCS. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IA DURING THE EVENING.

THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
SOUTH OF I-70 DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO
PARTS OF EASTERN NM,

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/29/2008

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KLBF [291137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 291137
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0634 AM HEAVY RAIN ONEILL 42.46N 98.65W
05/29/2008 E4.00 INCH HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER REPORTED HIGHWAY 108 FROM ONEILL TO 15
MILES EAST TRAVEL IS NOT RECCOMMENDED DUE TO WATER OVER
THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

MBYRD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1078

ACUS11 KWNS 291033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291032
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 291032Z - 291230Z

MUCH OF ERN NEB...WRN IA...AND EXTREME SERN SD WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
HIGH RISK AT 13Z TODAY.

...PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH/ARIZONA...AND WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE DRAWING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION
OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT INDICATE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40919863 41769911 42529868 43159769 43379668 43349489
42809455 41919470 40889569 40609670 40529776

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KLBF [291021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 291021
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM FLASH FLOOD O'NEILL 42.46N 98.65W
05/29/2008 HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER REPORTED OVER A GRAVEL COUNTY ROAD EAST OF ONEILL.
OBSERVER REPORTS 3.93 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONEILL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [291018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 291018
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
518 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM FLASH FLOOD PAGE 42.40N 98.42W
05/29/2008 HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER REPORTED OVER COUNTY ROAD S45A NORTH OF PAGE. ROAD
IS NOT PASSABLE BY AUTOMOBILE.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [291014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 291014
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
514 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM FLASH FLOOD PAGE 42.40N 98.42W
05/29/2008 HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER REPORTED OVER COUNTY ROAD S45A NORTH OF PAGE. ROAD
IS NOT PASSIBLE BY AUTOMOBILE.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KABQ [290910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 290910
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.28W
05/28/2008 M0.75 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0338 PM HAIL 10 NE STANLEY 35.25N 105.85W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

0340 PM HAIL 3 NE STANLEY 35.18N 105.94W
05/28/2008 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW SANTA CRUZ 35.97N 106.03W
05/28/2008 SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

SCREENS BLOWN OUT OF PORCH.

0405 PM HAIL 2 ESE STANLEY 35.13N 105.94W
05/28/2008 M1.75 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0409 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 ESE STANLEY 35.12N 105.89W
05/28/2008 SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0424 PM HAIL WHITE ROCK 35.80N 106.21W
05/28/2008 M0.75 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL 2 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.32W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 430 TO 440 PM.

0430 PM HAIL 2 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.32W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 430 TO 435 PM.

0431 PM HAIL 2 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.32W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 431 TO 446 PM.

0435 PM HAIL 2 W LOS ALAMOS 35.90N 106.32W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 435 TO 445 PM.

0440 PM HAIL 2 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.32W
05/28/2008 E0.75 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 440 TO 448 PM.

0442 PM HAIL LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.28W
05/28/2008 E0.75 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

0445 PM HAIL BANDELIER NATIONAL MONU 35.78N 106.27W
05/28/2008 E1.75 INCH SANDOVAL NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

0445 PM HAIL VILLANUEVA 35.27N 105.36W
05/28/2008 M2.10 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0509 PM HAIL 1 ESE ESPANOLA 36.00N 106.05W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 509 TO 519 PM.

0510 PM HAIL 1 W RUIDOSO 33.37N 105.66W
05/28/2008 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0515 PM HAIL 1 NE ESPANOLA 36.01N 106.06W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 515 TO 520 PM.

0525 PM HAIL 10 N ESPANOLA 36.15N 106.07W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

0530 PM HAIL 2 NW RIBERA 35.39N 105.47W
05/28/2008 M0.88 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0533 PM HAIL 1 ESE ESPANOLA 36.00N 106.05W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

0540 PM HAIL 2 SSW FORT STANTON 33.47N 105.54W
05/28/2008 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG PENASCO 36.17N 105.70W
05/28/2008 TAOS NM PUBLIC

TWO BARNS BLOWN DOWN AND ANOTHER HALF DESTROYED. ONE GOOD
SIZED WILLOW TREE BLOWN DOWN.

0540 PM HAIL 1 SE RIO LUCIO 36.19N 105.72W
05/28/2008 E0.75 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

0540 PM HAIL 1 SSW PENASCO 36.17N 105.70W
05/28/2008 E0.75 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 540 TO 543 PM.

0630 PM HAIL 2 SSW CONCHAS 35.37N 104.20W
05/28/2008 E2.00 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 630 TO 650 PM.

0635 PM HAIL 3 SW CONCHAS 35.37N 104.22W
05/28/2008 E1.75 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0644 PM HAIL CONCHAS 35.40N 104.19W
05/28/2008 M1.25 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM HAIL 2 SSW CONCHAS 35.37N 104.20W
05/28/2008 E1.75 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

HAILED FROM 645 TO 655 PM.

0700 PM HAIL CONCHAS 35.40N 104.19W
05/28/2008 E2.75 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM EMERGENCY MNGR

0749 PM HAIL CONCHAS 35.40N 104.19W
05/28/2008 E1.75 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM AMATEUR RADIO

0823 PM HAIL 5 NW TUCUMCARI 35.22N 103.79W
05/28/2008 M0.88 INCH QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM HAIL 5 N TUCUMCARI 35.24N 103.73W
05/28/2008 E1.00 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0843 PM HAIL LOS MONTOYAS 35.42N 105.21W
05/28/2008 M0.88 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0927 PM TORNADO 9 N TUCUMCARI 35.30N 103.73W
05/28/2008 SAN MIGUEL NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NO KNOWN DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

0951 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NNW TUCUMCARI 35.24N 103.77W
05/28/2008 QUAY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE ROAD 104 WASHED OUT. TRAFFIC BLOCKED BY POLICE.

1105 PM HAIL 5 NW NARA VISA 35.66N 103.16W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KD

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290849
SWOD48
SPC AC 290849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT STILL DIFFERENT ENOUGH -- PARTICULARLY FROM DAY 6 AND
BEYOND -- TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE
THREAT AREAS.

FOR DAY 4 /SUN. JUN. 1/...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS ATTM
TO EXIST FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS AND
OK...INVOF REMNANT FRONT EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION ACROSS THE KS/OK VICINITY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT...SOME QUESTION
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THREAT PRECLUDES ISSUING A
DAY 4 AREA ATTM.

DAY 5...MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...AS
SEVERAL SMALL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES EJECT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT THEREFORE APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES MAKE TIMING...LOCATION...AND DEGREE OF
SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM.

LOCATIONS OF THE MAIN FEATURES -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --
FROM DAY 6 AND BEYOND BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...AND ALSO WITHIN THE NCEP MREF AS INDICATED BY
STANDARD DEVIATION FIELDS...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
THREAT AREAS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2008

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

239
WOUS40 KWNS 290800
PWOSPC
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291600-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH/ARIZONA...AND WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE DRAWING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION
OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT INDICATE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 05/29/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290734
SWODY3
SPC AC 290732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM PARTS
OF KS/OK EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS
PERIOD...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD EXPANDS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
INTO TOWARD THE PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A SECOND/LARGE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE W COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WITH TIME...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKES EWD PROGRESS
INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT LINGERS MORE W-E ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
AND INTO OK/THE TX PANHANDLE.

...THE NORTHEAST SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/WWD ACROSS THE TN/OH/MID MS
VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF KS/OK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG
THIS FRONT...EXPANDING WWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD KS/OK AS DAYTIME
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE REMNANT
FRONT FROM THE MS VALLEY WWD. WITH BELT OF MODERATE WNWLY FLOW AT
MID-LEVELS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED.

SEVERE THREAT FURTHER E INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION REMAINS MORE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...AS ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...WITH STRONG WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN FORM WOULD
POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...A LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT TO 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE POCKETS OF MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL/WIND
THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 15%
PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST THIS PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...AND ALLOW REFINEMENT TO OCCUR IN LATER FORECASTS.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290551
SWODY2
SPC AC 290550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO/ERN KS EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...AS A BROAD ZONE
OF FAST WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS FROM CA ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITHIN THIS FAST WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A NW TO SE-ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- MOST
LIKELY FROM IA/NRN MO/IL NWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION --
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WSWLY
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS/SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE JET WEAKENS/VEERS...NEWD-ADVECTION OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE SURFACE FRONT BENEATH THE ENEWD
ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. STORM REDEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF SEWD-MOVING FRONT...INITIALLY
FROM MO NEWD ACROSS IA/IL AND INTO WI...WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
THEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON -- BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY INVOF REMNANT
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.

ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...VERY
STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTION FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...STORM MODE SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SMALL-SCALE LINES AND BOWS WITH TIME. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
RAPIDLY-MOVING CLUSTERS/MCS...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WHICH SHOULD
INCLUDE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD
EVOLVE TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS ONE OR MORE
MCS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
SEWD. WITH MODEST NWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT...CLUSTERS OF SEWD-MOVING
STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS. ANY
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2008

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KABQ [290519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 290519
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1119 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 PM HAIL 5 NW NARA VISA 35.66N 103.16W
05/28/2008 E0.88 INCH QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DPORTER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1077

ACUS11 KWNS 290441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290441
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB / SRN SD / SWRN MN / WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290441Z - 290615Z

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF WRN INTO N-CNTRL NEB AS WELL AS OVER FAR
SERN SD AS OF 0420Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING TO THE N OF A WARM
FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM NERN CO EWD ACROSS NRN KS AND
ALONG THE NOSE OF 40 KT LLJ CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS. 00Z LBF OBSERVED AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTENING IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ARE RESULTING IN AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...A PROCESS WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...SUPPORTING
MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

41830236 43260139 44249885 44569716 44629625 44339560
43519538 42759591 42259737 41419996 41250146

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