SWODY1
SPC AC 291601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN
IA AND FAR SERN SD......
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
KS...WCENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST SD... AND SOUTHWEST
MN......
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE
TO SOUTHERN WI......
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NE...NRN KS EWD ACROSS IA AND FAR SERN SD...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG THERMODYNAMICS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND WIND
MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE PROVIDING NOT ONLY
THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY NWD THRU THE
PLAINS INTO NEB TO THE E OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND DRY LINE. BY MID
AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW WILL BE SWRN NEB WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD
TO VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER.
WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AOA 2500 J/KG AND STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IN AREA OF WEAKEST CINH OVER CENTRAL NEB
INTO NWRN KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS TAKING
PLACE.
SUPERCELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVELY EWD VICINITY
AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN NEB INTO IA.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTS LONG LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS.
IN ADDITION TO TORNADOS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL
AND AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSCALE BY THIS EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM ERN NEB INTO IA.
FURTHER S INTO NRN KS...WHILE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED
DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE BOTH TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL AS MLCAPES WILL
BE ABOVE 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 5OKT RANGE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER S ALONG TX/NM BORDER
AS NOW APPEARS THAT DRY LINE WILL MIX NO FURTHER E THAN THE BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
..HALES/DARROW.. 05/29/2008
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