Monday, November 26, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270458
SWODY1
SPC AC 270455

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S TODAY. A LEAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN STATES. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY
12Z TODAY WILL AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EXTEND
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LEAD UPPER TROUGH AND
INITIALLY TRAILING WWD ACROSS NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THROUGH
THE PENINSULA TODAY AND THEN STALL OVER SRN FL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD.

.PETERS/LEVIT.. 11/27/2007

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KABR [270426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 270426
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1026 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 N BRITTON 45.82N 97.75W
11/26/2007 E0.0 INCH MARSHALL SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY SNOW AND 40 MPH WIND

0735 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N SISSETON 45.73N 97.05W
11/26/2007 M60.00 MPH ROBERTS SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CURRENTLY 25 MPH WIND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW.

0738 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
11/26/2007 M0.00 MPH BROWN SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

43 MPH WIND AND SNOW.

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WHEATON 45.81N 96.50W
11/26/2007 M42.00 MPH TRAVERSE MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

4SM -SN

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SUMMIT 45.30N 97.04W
11/26/2007 E50.00 MPH ROBERTS SD PUBLIC

SNOW FALLING. STILL GOOD VISIBILITY.

0808 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SISSETON 45.66N 97.05W
11/26/2007 M52.00 MPH ROBERTS SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ORTONVILLE 45.30N 96.44W
11/26/2007 M51.00 MPH BIG STONE MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

LIGHT SNOW

0902 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WATERTOWN 44.91N 97.17W
11/26/2007 M43.00 MPH CODINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2168

ACUS11 KWNS 270346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270346
MEZ000-270615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270346Z - 270615Z

HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE.

REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. AND...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM IS ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 50 KT...AND THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BY 06Z...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION THROUGH A DEEP
LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYER.

WHILE A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN...OR
WARM...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MUCH OF NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK/PENOBSCOT/PISCATAQUIS/AND SOMERSET COUNTIES OF MAINE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THIS AREA IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED. AND...AS LIFT BECOMES MAXIMIZED BY
06Z...INCLUDING THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
BY 05-06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 09-10Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME.

.KERR.. 11/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...

47336977 47436851 47006766 46406783 46136923 46087021
46417057

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KABR [270313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270313
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0902 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WATERTOWN 44.91N 97.17W
11/26/2007 M43 MPH CODINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270248
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
848 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N SISSETON 45.73N 97.05W
11/26/2007 M60 MPH ROBERTS SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CURRENTLY 25 MPH WIND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW.


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270241
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
841 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ORTONVILLE 45.30N 96.44W
11/26/2007 M51 MPH BIG STONE MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

LIGHT SNOW


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270226
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
826 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SUMMIT 45.30N 97.04W
11/26/2007 E50 MPH ROBERTS SD PUBLIC

SNOW FALLING. STILL GOOD VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270210
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WHEATON 45.81N 96.50W
11/26/2007 M42 MPH TRAVERSE MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

4SM -SN


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270209
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
809 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SISSETON 45.66N 97.05W
11/26/2007 M52 MPH ROBERTS SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270140
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
740 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
11/26/2007 M0 MPH BROWN SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

43 MPH WIND AND SNOW.


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KABR [270125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 270125
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
725 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 N BRITTON 45.82N 97.75W
11/26/2007 E0.0 INCH MARSHALL SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY SNOW AND 40 MPH WIND


&&

$$

SKEEFE

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KGRR [270051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 270051
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM SNOW 2 NE BATH 42.84N 84.42W
11/26/2007 M1.6 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KSEW [270036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 270036
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
436 PM PST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0429 PM SNOW 5 NNW SHELTON 47.29N 123.13W
11/26/2007 E0.8 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW FALLING FOR
45 MINUTES. TEMPERATURE 35 DEGREES.


&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270034
SWODY1
SPC AC 270031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..COASTAL CAROLINAS TO SERN VA...
DE-AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD TONIGHT
REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE UPSTREAM
TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH SRN APPALACHIANS TO NERN GULF
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW REACHING MAINE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NRN FL.

AIR MASS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA REMAINS MOIST
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH GREATEST
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO BE N OF THIS REGION TONIGHT...SOME LIFT ALONG SRN EXTENT
OF UPPER OH VALLEY TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL TSTMS
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM ERN SC TO SERN VA. WEAK
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.PETERS.. 11/27/2007

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KGRR [262313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262313
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
613 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM SNOW LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
11/26/2007 M1.4 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0.24 INCHES LIQUID.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KCHS [262300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 262300
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
600 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM HAIL 3 ESE SHAWNEE 32.47N 81.35W
11/26/2007 E0.75 INCH EFFINGHAM GA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR.


&&

$$

JRJ

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KCHS [262222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 262222
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
521 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG MANASSAS 32.16N 82.02W
11/26/2007 TATTNALL GA TRAINED SPOTTER

A FEW ONE TO TWO INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES WERE BLOWN
DOWN BY HIGH WINDS.


&&

$$

JHP

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KABQ [262036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 262036
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 PM MST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM SNOW 7 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.19N 106.54W
11/22/2007 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SPAIN AND TRAMWAY...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

0100 AM SNOW 3 W ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.68W
11/23/2007 M1.2 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

0120 AM SNOW 8 NW ALBUQUERQUE 35.20N 106.73W
11/23/2007 E1.1 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

PASEO DEL NORTE AND RAINBOW.

0612 AM SNOW 5 NW LAMY 35.53N 105.94W
11/23/2007 M2.9 INCH SANTA FE NM AMATEUR RADIO

0630 AM SNOW SANTA FE 35.68N 105.95W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0630 AM SNOW RIO RANCHO 35.27N 106.66W
11/23/2007 M1.6 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW EDGEWOOD 35.08N 106.18W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
11/23/2007 M10.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER EQUIVALENT 0.72 INCH

0700 AM SNOW 3 SSW ENCINO 34.61N 105.48W
11/23/2007 M2.7 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0704 AM SNOW NARA VISA 35.61N 103.10W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 AM SNOW 3 SSE EDGEWOOD 35.04N 106.15W
11/23/2007 E2.5 INCH TORRANCE NM PUBLIC

0721 AM SNOW 7 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.19N 106.54W
11/23/2007 E1.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

ACADEMY AND EUBANK.

0725 AM SNOW SAN JOSE 36.04N 106.10W
11/23/2007 M3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

0730 AM SNOW ESPANOLA 36.00N 106.07W
11/23/2007 M2.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0735 AM SNOW FARMINGTON 36.75N 108.19W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH SAN JUAN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0756 AM SNOW 6 N TAOS 36.47N 105.58W
11/23/2007 E5.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

0800 AM SNOW FORT SUMNER 34.48N 104.24W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH DE BACA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW DULCE 36.93N 107.00W
11/23/2007 M8.2 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0811 AM SNOW TUCUMCARI 35.17N 103.73W
11/23/2007 E3.0 INCH QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 AM SNOW 1 SSW LA MADERA 36.37N 106.05W
11/23/2007 E2.9 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0929 AM SNOW MOSQUERO 35.77N 103.95W
11/23/2007 M5.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

0930 AM SNOW RIO RANCHO 35.27N 106.66W
11/23/2007 M1.4 INCH SANDOVAL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW 17 SSE LAS VEGAS 35.37N 105.10W
11/23/2007 E6.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

4 MILES SOUTH OF LA LIENDRE AT AGUILAR NM

1054 AM SNOW 7 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.50W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

LOMAS AND TRAMWAY.

1225 PM SNOW 1 WSW WHITE ROCK 35.80N 106.22W
11/23/2007 M3.5 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

0102 PM SNOW ARROYO SECO 36.52N 105.57W
11/23/2007 M5.0 INCH TAOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM SNOW PENA BLANCA 35.57N 106.34W
11/23/2007 E5.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

5 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT... 3 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR

0211 PM SNOW LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.28W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

0227 PM SNOW 1 E LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.27W
11/23/2007 E6.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW 30 WSW CUBA 35.86N 107.45W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
11/23/2007 M12.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0430 PM SNOW GRAN QUIVIRA 34.26N 106.10W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 8 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.48W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

COMANCHE AND TRAMWAY. AFTERNOON SNOWFALL DID NOT
ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY...ACCUMULATION IS FROM PREDAWN
HOURS.

0500 PM SNOW TRES PIEDRAS 36.65N 105.97W
11/23/2007 M4.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.41W
11/23/2007 M13.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 8 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.48W
11/23/2007 M2.9 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

MONTGOMERY AND TRAMWAY.

0600 PM SNOW RAGLAND 34.82N 103.74W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH QUAY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW CUBERO 35.09N 107.52W
11/23/2007 M3.0 INCH CIBOLA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW MELROSE 34.43N 103.63W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH CURRY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW CAPULIN 36.74N 103.99W
11/23/2007 M2.3 INCH UNION NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW ROY 35.95N 104.20W
11/23/2007 M3.5 INCH HARDING NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0615 PM SNOW 7 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.50W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY.

0630 PM SNOW 8 ESE ALBUQUERQUE 35.07N 106.49W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

CENTRAL AND FOUR HILLS.

0643 PM SNOW 7 N EDGEWOOD 35.19N 106.18W
11/23/2007 E6.0 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

6 INCHES TOTAL...4 INCHES ON GROUND.

0644 PM SNOW 26 SW CUBA 35.76N 107.28W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 PM SNOW 5 S ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.62W
11/23/2007 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT. TOTAL ONE INCH FOR THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

0700 PM SNOW SAN JON 35.11N 103.33W
11/23/2007 M1.7 INCH QUAY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0716 PM SNOW 2 SE ESPANOLA 35.98N 106.04W
11/23/2007 M5.0 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1032 PM SNOW 5 ESE SANDIA PARK 35.14N 106.28W
11/23/2007 M4.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1102 PM SNOW CLAYTON 36.45N 103.18W
11/23/2007 M1.1 INCH UNION NM CO-OP OBSERVER

ADDITIONAL 0.1 INCH SINCE 5 PM.

0630 AM SNOW ROSEBUD 35.84N 103.44W
11/24/2007 M2.5 INCH HARDING NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW RUIDOSO 33.37N 105.64W
11/24/2007 M5.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 1 NE MORIARTY 35.01N 106.03W
11/24/2007 M7.4 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AS 5 INCHES.

0700 AM SNOW 10 ENE CEDAR CREST 35.16N 106.21W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 NE STANLEY 35.17N 105.95W
11/24/2007 M3.9 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.62W
11/24/2007 M2.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 12 E GLADSTONE 36.30N 103.76W
11/24/2007 M5.0 INCH UNION NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW 5 W MOUNTAINAIR 34.52N 106.33W
11/24/2007 M2.0 INCH TORRANCE NM PUBLIC

0800 AM SNOW EAGLE NEST 36.55N 105.26W
11/24/2007 M7.0 INCH COLFAX NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 3 NW ROSWELL 33.40N 104.57W
11/24/2007 M7.5 INCH CHAVES NM AMATEUR RADIO

US70 AND SYCAMORE

0800 AM SNOW CLOVIS 34.41N 103.20W
11/24/2007 M1.8 INCH CURRY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW CAPITAN 33.54N 105.59W
11/24/2007 M6.0 INCH LINCOLN NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0920 AM SNOW MOUNTAINAIR 34.52N 106.24W
11/24/2007 M4.3 INCH TORRANCE NM PUBLIC

1100 AM SNOW ROSWELL 33.37N 104.53W
11/24/2007 M10.9 INCH CHAVES NM CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW DEPTH AT 11AM WAS 9 INCHES.

0330 PM SNOW 8 S ROSWELL 33.26N 104.53W
11/24/2007 M7.3 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT FROM 8PM FRI TIL 330PM SAT.

0600 AM SNOW 4 N ROSWELL 33.43N 104.53W
11/25/2007 M10.5 INCH CHAVES NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1.5 INCHES SINCE LAST REPORT.


&&

$$

DPORTER

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KGRR [262001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262001
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM SNOW IONIA 42.99N 85.06W
11/26/2007 E0.0 INCH IONIA MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0253 PM SNOW ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
11/26/2007 E0.0 INCH CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUSTING OF SNOW. ICY ROADS.

0253 PM SNOW EAST LANSING 42.74N 84.48W
11/26/2007 E0.8 INCH INGHAM MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. ROADS ICY.

0253 PM SNOW KALAMAZOO 42.27N 85.59W
11/26/2007 E1.0 INCH KALAMAZOO MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS ICY.

0253 PM SNOW BATTLE CREEK 42.30N 85.23W
11/26/2007 E1.0 INCH CALHOUN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

ICY ROADS.

0253 PM SNOW JACKSON 42.24N 84.40W
11/26/2007 E0.0 INCH JACKSON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUSTING OF SNOW. ROADS BECOMING ICY.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261959
SWODY1
SPC AC 261956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 18Z STRONG VORT MAX VICINITY BOOTHEEL MO WITH UPPER TROUGH SWD
INTO MS LIFTING RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS BY MID EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING 80PLUS KT 500MB WIND MAX ROTATES FROM CURRENT LOCATION
AL/MID TN TO ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z.

SURFACE LOW NEAR CVG AT 19Z WITH COLD FRONT SWD THRU ERN AL INTO
GULF S OF MOB. COASTAL FRONT HAS SHIFTED INLAND FROM SERN CORNER VA
TO CENTRAL SC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE FROM W OF AGS SWWD
INTO NERN GOM.

..MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND AS MID LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES
BY THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING PARAMETER
FOR MORE THAN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT... WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO
500 J/KG AND LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE NEAR 70F
DEWPOINTS ARE AVAILABLE.

CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY LINE MOVING NEWD
INTO SC EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE REMAINDER
OF AFTERNOON AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE LITTLE GREATER INSTABILITY.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
MOVING RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG
INSTABILITY LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO ERN NC DURING EVENING.

FURTHER S ALONG INSTABILITY LINE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS
DECREASING AS UPPER SYSTEM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SHIFT AWAY FROM
AREA ALONG WITH A SHRINKING AREA OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN WARM
SECTOR.

HAVE ADDED THUNDER INTO ERN OH/TN VALLEYS WITH DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT/UPPER TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

.HALES.. 11/26/2007

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KDLH [261725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 261725
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1125 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
11/26/2007 M1.2 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

KMD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261656
SWODY2
SPC AC 261654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

WITH STRONG PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM NWRN U.S. INTO HIGH
PLAINS TUE NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE WITH FLAT RIDGING ERN STATES.
FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING WWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA TUE AM WILL MAKE
ONLY SLOW SWD PROGRESS AND EVENTUALLY STALL S FL BY TUE NIGHT.

AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL BE MODESTLY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER SRN PORTION
OF PENINSULA...HOWEVER IT COULD BE DROPPED IN DAY1 FORECASTS AS ALL
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.

.HALES.. 11/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261628
SWODY1
SPC AC 261625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN NC AREA...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER AR/MO THIS MORNING WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN
STREAM AND ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TO THE MIDDLE AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS
BY EARLY TUESDAY.

..NE GULF COAST TODAY...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BAND...THE LARGER SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED STORMS WITH BOW AND/OR SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE
SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE STORM
PROBABILITIES.

..ERN NC AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...
A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING
AND EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL WEDGE E OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5 C/KM. THE
RICHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE
DAY...THUS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE APPROACH
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/26/2007

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KTAE [261628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 261628
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1128 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW DONALSONVILLE 31.08N 84.90W
11/26/2007 MILLER GA EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO ROOFS REMOVED OFF OF SMALL FARM SHEDS. 1 IRRIGATION
SYSTEM FLIPPED OVER ALONG WITH THREE PECAN TREES BLOWN
DOWN. EVENT OCCURRED RIGHT ALONG THE SEMINOLE-MILLER
COUNTY LINE NEAR GRADY COBB ROAD AND GEORGIA HIGHWAY 91.
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR DATA.


&&

$$

GODSEY

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KLCH [261430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 261430
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 S NEW IBERIA 29.94N 91.82W
11/25/2007 IBERIA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL HOMES NEAR PORT OF NEW IBERIA LOST ROOFS.


&&

$$

JB

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KDVN [261352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 261352
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW N AUGUSTA 40.23N 90.95W
11/26/2007 E1.0 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2167

ACUS11 KWNS 261340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261340
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261340Z - 261545Z

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS WITHIN A SOLID LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FLA PANHANDLE. THE
SMALL AREAL EXTENT AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NWD
THROUGH PENSACOLA AND EXTENDS FROM SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY SEWD INTO
WRN FRANKLIN COUNTY. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS DEWPTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEG F
SUPPORTING MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE FLA
PANHANDLE/SWRN GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING NEWD AROUND 40 KTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
/0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PER THE VWP AT TLH/ ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY CELL THAT INTERACTS WITH
THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS...ISOLATED DMGG WING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE STABLE
AIRMASS /DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S/ TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
SWRN GA SUGGESTS LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA.

.CROSBIE.. 11/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

31258525 30518574 30138564 29788526 29908437 30288393
30918353 31278366 31448406

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KTAE [261314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 261314
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 N DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 30.77N 86.12W
11/26/2007 WALTON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TREE REPORTED DOWN AT INGLE ROAD AND COUNTY ROAD 1883.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261240
SWODY1
SPC AC 261238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN SC INTO FAR SERN
VA...

..FL PANHANDLE COAST...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MAINTAINED SMALL BOW ECHO AND A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED EWD ACROSS
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AIR MASS HAS STRUGGLED TO RECOVER AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY WITH 12Z MESOSCALE ANALYSES AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ONLY VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY INVOF THE COAST WEST OF
THE FL BEND REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR
SURFACE BASED MLCAPE GIVEN MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD END
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT EWD OVER THE NRN FL/SERN GA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..ERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA...
CAD WEDGE REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...WITH COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER SSWWD INTO FAR ERN SC AT 12Z. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO ERODE ERN
PORTION OF CAD SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL SURFACE BASED CAPE LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F. HOW FAR WEST
SUFFICIENT EROSION WILL OCCUR FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ATTM. HOWEVER...APPEARS WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
LIFT WNWWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT BY LATER TODAY.

SCATTERED...MOSTLY ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE
ROBUST STORMS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TAPPING RICHER ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LAPSE
RATES REMAIN WEAK AND RESULTANT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER
SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
BRIEF TORNADOES PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.

.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/26/2007

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KOUN [261028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 261028
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW BETHANY 35.51N 97.64W
11/26/2007 E1.5 INCH OKLAHOMA OK BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

11

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260746
SWOD48
SPC AC 260745

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON DAY 4 /THU NOV 29TH/. THEREAFTER...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THIS FEATURE EWD THROUGH THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE NATION ON DAYS 7 /SUN DEC 2/ AND 8 /MON DEC 3/.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT REMAINS QUITE LOW. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN
RECENT...STRONG FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE
DELINEATED THIS FORECAST.

.MEAD.. 11/26/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260611
SWODY3
SPC AC 260610

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

DYNAMIC...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THREE
PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE NERN
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND MORE SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF GULF COAST.

ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE SERN FL PENINSULA WHERE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

.MEAD.. 11/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260551
SWODY1
SPC AC 260549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO SERN VA...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SRN PLAINS MID/
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ERN
OK/AR TO ERN KY/TN BY 27/00Z. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NERN
STATES...AND IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVING ALBERTA/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD FROM WRN TN TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO MAINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY SPREADING EWD FROM THE
AL/MS BORDER THROUGH THE SERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND OFF MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD INTO CENTRAL FL BY END OF PERIOD.

THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY INITIALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NERN GULF
COAST...AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/PART OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..NERN GULF COAST...
AT 12Z TODAY...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS /A FEW POTENTIALLY
SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER LOW. DESPITE WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE GULF COAST...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT EWD TO SRN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

DEEP LAYER SWLY SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

..CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AND TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL SUPPORT SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. WEDGE
FRONT WILL ERODE OR RETREAT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S ALONG AND E OF THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE CAROLINAS
TO SERN VA. DESPITE FORECAST FOR WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 700 J/KG
ACROSS WRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK. HIGHER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN FURTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING.

MODELS INDICATED ASCENT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
ELEVATED PRIOR TO EROSION OF WEDGE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM W-E ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AND THE COLD FRONT ADVANCE EWD. DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR FAST STORM MOTIONS /40-50 KT/.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

.PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/26/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260513
SWODY2
SPC AC 260511

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRANSLATING NEWD INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND
STRONG...UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE SLOWLY SAGGING SWD. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...

AIR MASS AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A FEW OF THE MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THIS WARM LAYER WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD UPPER TOUGH MOVING INLAND. THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN ADDITIONAL
GENERAL THUNDER AREA.

.MEAD.. 11/26/2007

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