SWOD48
SPC AC 260745
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON DAY 4 /THU NOV 29TH/. THEREAFTER...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THIS FEATURE EWD THROUGH THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE NATION ON DAYS 7 /SUN DEC 2/ AND 8 /MON DEC 3/.
MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT REMAINS QUITE LOW. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN
RECENT...STRONG FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE
DELINEATED THIS FORECAST.
.MEAD.. 11/26/2007
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