Friday, December 18, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190056
SWODY1
SPC AC 190055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
UPR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL APLCNS TO FL AT 00Z WILL
CONTINUE ENE OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY JET STREAK
DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE SERN STATES. SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE JUST OFFSHORE SC AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD
INVOF KHAT BY 12Z.

A TRAILING CDFNT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL
TONIGHT. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF IT...OWING TO PASSAGE OF AN EARLY DAY
SUBTROPICAL WAVE...WILL PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT.

FARTHER N...A BURST OR TWO OF TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM
PV-ANOMALY SWINGS ENE INTO PARTS OF CSTL SC/NC LATER TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL FORM ATOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME W OF THE MARINE FRONT WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SFC-BASED STORMS RELEGATED TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF NC/SC.

MEANWHILE...ISOLD LIGHTNING /LESS THAN 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY/ MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY HEAVIER BANDED PCPN AMIDST THE DEFORMATION ZONE
ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE VA/NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 12/19/2009

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KCHS [190056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 190056
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

BEE STREET IMPASSABLE.


&&

$$

VB

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KJKL [190054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 190054
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM SNOW 4 E MONTICELLO 36.84N 84.78W
12/18/2009 E2.0 INCH WAYNE KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

2-3 INCHES REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE CO


&&

$$

MBECKER

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KJKL [190047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 190047
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM SNOW CORBIN 36.94N 84.11W
12/18/2009 U0.0 INCH WHITLEY KY AMATEUR RADIO

RAIN CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW THROUGHOUT LAUREL CO


&&

$$

MBECKER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2258

ACUS11 KWNS 190023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190022
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-190515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 190022Z - 190515Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
E/NEWD THROUGH 06Z...TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE WASHINGTON
D.C. TO RICHMOND METRO AREAS. LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY YIELD
RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR. A NARROW TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR OF SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT IN WRN NC
TO S-CNTRL VA.

AS OF 0015Z...A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF WRN NC
AND CNTRL/SRN VA. MULTIPLE HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR
HAVE BEEN REPORTED SINCE 21Z ACROSS FAR ERN TN/KY...WRN NC AND SWRN
VA. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH WEAKENING THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN TN/KY SWD INTO GA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID-MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY AS THEY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG COASTAL SC THROUGH 06Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA...INFERRED BY LARGE VEERED HODOGRAPHS IN
REGIONAL VWP DATA...SHOULD CONTINUE AS 18Z NAM/21Z RUC FORECASTS
DEPICT INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETICAL ASCENT
GRADUALLY PIVOTING EWD TO THE N/NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR PERSISTING...WHILE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA MAY RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NC INTO S-CNTRL VA.

..GRAMS.. 12/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...

LAT...LON 38538173 38038263 37288338 36518351 36268282 36228199
35808150 35768061 35917987 36147945 36877738 37467624
38297615 39027688 39257777 39107915 38858058 38538173

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KJKL [190017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 190017
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
717 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM SNOW 1 S SHELBY GAP 37.20N 82.56W
12/18/2009 E4.0 INCH PIKE KY PUBLIC

4-5 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ON U.S. HWY 23 NEAR
KENTUCY/VIRGINIA LINE


&&

$$

MBECKER

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KCHS [190017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 190017
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 32.80N 79.85W
12/18/2009 M5.38 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL MEASURED SINCE 7 AM.


&&

$$

VB

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KJKL [190003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 190003
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
703 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW CORBIN 36.94N 84.11W
12/18/2009 U1.0 INCH WHITLEY KY AMATEUR RADIO

A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN CORBIN AND SNOW HAD CHANGED
BACK TO RAIN CAUSING SLUSH.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [190001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KJKL 190001
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
701 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM SNOW VICCO 37.22N 83.06W
12/18/2009 E2.0 INCH PERRY KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PERRY COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE
VICCO AREA. ALSO...POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN THE
WOODLAND SECTION OF HAZARD.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KKEY [182358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 182358
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
658 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0459 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
12/18/2009 M40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WAS RECORDED AT THE MOLASSESS REEF C-MAN PLATFORM.

0511 PM TSTM WND GST LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
12/18/2009 M0 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE WEST WAS
RECORDED BY A CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM STATION ON
LONG KEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SQUALL LINE.

0501 PM TSTM WND GST ISLAMORADA 24.92N 80.64W
12/18/2009 M40 MPH UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WAS RECORDED AT THE CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVING PROGRAM
STATION ON PLANTATION KEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SQUALL LINE.

0551 PM TSTM WND GST LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
12/18/2009 M45 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...OR 45 MPH...FROM THE WEST WAS
RECORDED AT THE CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM STATION
ON LONG KEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SQUALL LINE.

0548 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
12/18/2009 M43 MPH GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43 MPH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WAS RECORDED AT THE LONG KEY C-MAN PLATFORM.

0519 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
12/18/2009 M40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE WEST WAS
RECORDED AT THE MOLASSESS REEF C-MAN PLATFORM.

0631 PM TSTM WND GST LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
12/18/2009 M40 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE WEST WAS
RECORDED AT THE CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM STATION
ON LONG KEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SQUALL LINE.

0600 PM TSTM WND GST KEY LARGO 25.11N 80.44W
12/18/2009 M39 MPH UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WAS REPORTED BY A PRIVATE INDUSTRY WEATHER
INSTRUMENT LOCATED ON SOUTH KEY LARGO.


&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KJKL [182356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182356
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM SNOW VICCO 37.22N 83.06W
12/18/2009 U0.0 INCH PERRY KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PERRY COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE
VICCO AREA. ALSO...POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN THE
WOODLAND SECTION OF HAZARD.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KCHS [182345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182345
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
645 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.86W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LONG POINT RD CLOSED NEAR MARSH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
FRESHWATER FLOODING AND HIGH TIDES. ROAD FLOODING ALSO
REPORTED IN SNEE FARM.


&&

$$

JRL

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KLSX [182342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 182342
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM SNOW HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.38W
12/18/2009 E1.0 INCH MARION MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDE ROADS YARDS AND SIDEWALKS IN HANNIBAL ARE SNOW
COVERED...MAIN ROADS STILL JUST WET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900422

$$

JP

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KJKL [182339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182339
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW PINEVILLE 36.76N 83.70W
12/18/2009 E6.0 INCH BELL KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

BELL COUNTY DISPATCH ESTIMATED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AT THE BELL COUNTY COURTHOUSE IN PINEVILLE.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182335
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM SNOW CORBIN 36.94N 84.11W
12/18/2009 E2.0 INCH WHITLEY KY AMATEUR RADIO

2 INCHES OF SNOW WERE REPORTED ON THE GROUND WITH
NUMEROUS WRECKS COUNTYWIDE.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182334
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
634 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM SNOW LEROSE 37.48N 83.62W
12/18/2009 E2.0 INCH OWSLEY KY NWS EMPLOYEE

2 INCHES OF SNOW WAS ESTIMATED IN EASTERN OWSLEY COUNTY.
IN WESTERN BREATHITT COUNTY...HILLS WERE ICY ON HIGHWAY
30 NEAR TURKEY.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182326
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
626 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM SNOW BLACK MOUNTAIN 36.85N 83.15W
12/18/2009 E6.0 INCH HARLAN KY BROADCAST MEDIA

TELEVISION MEDIA REPORTED AN ESTIMATE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ON BLACK MOUNTAIN.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KJKL 182324 CCA
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
617 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW DORTON 37.28N 82.58W
12/18/2009 M3.0 INCH PIKE KY PUBLIC

THREE INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED ON CARD MOUNTAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 460 IN SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN ELKHORN CITY
AND MOUTHCARD. THE SNOW BEGAN FALLING AROUND 330 PM.


&&

$$

AR

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KJKL [182317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182317
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
617 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW DORTON 37.28N 82.58W
12/18/2009 M3.0 INCH PIKE KY PUBLIC

THREE INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED ON CARD MOUNTAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 460 IN SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY NEAR DORTON. THE SNOW
BEGAN FALLING AROUND 330 PM.


&&

$$

AR

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KJKL [182304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182304
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
604 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM SNOW 3 S PINE KNOT 36.62N 84.44W
12/18/2009 E3.0 INCH MCCREARY KY EMERGENCY MNGR

MCCREARY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT
HIGHWAY 92 WAS CLOSED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH 1470.
APPROXIMATELY 20 OTHER ACCIDENTS HAD BEEN REPORTED. 2 TO
3 INCHES WERE ESTIMATED ON THE GROUND.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KCHS [182256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182256
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM FLASH FLOOD ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

MANY ROADS IN TOWN ARE UNDER WATER.


&&

$$

MTE

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KLSX [182251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 182251
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM SNOW QUINCY 39.93N 91.39W
12/18/2009 M0.5 INCH ADAMS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. STILL SNOWING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900421

$$

BRITT

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KCHS [182246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182246
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
546 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM FLASH FLOOD FOLLY BEACH 32.66N 79.92W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER ON ALL SIDE STREETS.


&&

$$

VB

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KJKL [182231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182231
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
531 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0457 PM SNOW PIKEVILLE 37.48N 82.51W
12/18/2009 U0.0 INCH PIKE KY EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS NON INJURY ACCIDENTS ON KENTUCKY 632 PHELPS
MOUNTAIN...US 23 DORTON MOUNTAIN...US 460 CARD MOUNTAIN.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KCHS [182224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182224
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
524 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.90W
12/18/2009 M3.76 INCH CHARLESTON SC BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

JRL

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KCHS [182221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182221
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
520 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM FLASH FLOOD MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.86W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

PORTIONS OF COLEMAN BLVD CLOSED


&&

$$

MTE

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KKEY [182218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 182218
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
517 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM TORNADO SE KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
12/18/2009 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL NWS STORM SURVEY

A PRELIMINARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY
REPORTS AN EF0 TORNADO OVER SOUTHEAST KEY WEST AND
EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL STOCK ISLAND. DAMAGE REPORTS
INCLUDE SEVERAL DOWNED TREES, SNAPPED PALM TREES,AND
LOOSE DEBRIS BLOWN INTO POWER LINES. WIND ESTIMATES ARE
IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE.


&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KJKL [182205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182205
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM SNOW ELKHORN CITY 37.30N 82.35W
12/18/2009 M1.0 INCH PIKE KY TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IN A HALF AN HOUR AND SNOW
IS COVERING THE ROADS. HALF DOLLAR SIZED FLAKES.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KCHS [182203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182203
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM FLASH FLOOD NORTH CHARLESTON 32.85N 79.97W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

MEETING STREET AT MACON STREET FLOODED AND BEING CLOSED.

0456 PM FLASH FLOOD NORTH CHARLESTON 32.85N 79.97W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

MEETING STREET AT HACKERMAN AVENUE FLOODED AND BEING
CLOSED.


&&

$$

VB

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KTBW [182148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 182148
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
448 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM TORNADO 2 N ONA 27.52N 81.91W
12/18/2009 HARDEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO OFF OF VANDOLAH ROAD. A
ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A BUILDING AND A CAR WAS
OVERTURNED.


&&

$$

COLSON

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KFFC [182141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 182141
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD 5 NW BREMEN 33.77N 85.21W
12/18/2009 HARALSON GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

BEECH CREEK WAS BEGINNING TO FLOOD PORTIONS OF OLD
RIDGEWAY AND BEECH CREEK ROADS.

0100 PM FLOOD 7 NE BUCHANAN 33.87N 85.10W
12/18/2009 HARALSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

BROOKS CREEK WAS BEGINNING TO FLOOD PORTIONS OF FRANCES
WHITE ROAD.


&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KJKL [182131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182131
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM SNOW WHITESBURG 37.12N 82.83W
12/18/2009 E0.0 INCH LETCHER KY CO-OP OBSERVER

MAJOR REPORTS 1 INCH OF SNOW ON THE PATIO IN THE LAST 15
MIN. FLAKES ARE BIGGER THAN A SILVER DOLLAR.


&&

$$

MBECKER

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KJKL [182127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182127
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
427 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM SNOW MIDDLESBORO 36.61N 83.72W
12/18/2009 E2.0 INCH BELL KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TWO INCHES OF SNOW WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY
MIDDLESBORO RESCUE SQUAD.


&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182126
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM SNOW PINEVILLE 36.76N 83.70W
12/18/2009 E2.5 INCH BELL KY NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KJKL [182121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 182121
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
421 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM SNOW THORNTON 37.16N 82.74W
12/18/2009 E0.0 INCH LETCHER KY PUBLIC

RAIN CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ABOUT 1/2 HOUR AGO...STARTING
TO STICK TO ROADS AND GRASS. VERY LARGE FLAKES FALLING
NOW AND VERY HEAVY.WILL CALL BACK WITH HOURLY UPDATES.


&&

$$

MBECKER

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KCHS [182120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182120
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
12/18/2009 E0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 17 AT PRESIDENT STREET. WATER
1 FOOT DEEP.

0410 PM HEAVY RAIN WEST ASHLEY 32.80N 80.01W
12/18/2009 E0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 61 AT SHADOWMOSS.

0413 PM HEAVY RAIN NORTH CHARLESTON 32.85N 79.97W
12/18/2009 E0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

PONDING OF WATER UP TO 1 FOOT DEEP AT REMOUNT AND NORTH
RHETT.


&&

$$

VB

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 804

WWUS20 KWNS 182103
SEL4
SPC WW 182103
FLZ000-181800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 804 ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FOR PORTIONS OF

FLORIDA

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KCHS [182050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182050
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
349 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN NORTH CHARLESTON 32.85N 79.97W
12/18/2009 E0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ON THE ROAD AT JACKSONVILLE ROAD AND MEETING
STREET. VEHICLE STALLED. WATER DEPTH UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

VB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181953
SWODY1
SPC AC 181951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN GA INTO FL...

...SRN GA/FL...
A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ATTM ACROSS MOST OF
FL...WITH LIGHTNING NOW CONFINED TO THE KEYS AND THE BAHAMAS.

HOWEVER...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN GA SWD ACROSS THE
ERN GULF -- WITH A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED CELLS -- PERSISTS ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW INVOF TLH. WEAK
ONSHORE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SLOWLY VEERING BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
HAS REDUCED AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF
SHEAR COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL SUPPORTS SOME
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL. ANOTHER SMALL AREA
OF THREAT -- ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SWRN GA -- MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...UNTIL SURFACE LOW
MORE FULLY REDEVELOPS E OFF THE SERN GA/NRN FL COAST.

..GOSS.. 12/18/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND FROM FL PNHDL TO GA/FL
BORDER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
LIKELY ALONG SC COASTAL FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THIS PROCESS OCCURS
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LENDS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PHASES WITH A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING DEEP-LAYER COASTAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF FL
BY THAT TIME.

...N FL INTO SRN GA...
DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN GULF THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ABSENT. DRY SLOT AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE NRN GULF HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A LACK OF GREATER TSTM
COVERAGE. PRIMARY CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO
POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS IF ANY DISCRETE LONGER-LIVED TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THE WINDOW IN TIME/SPACE FOR ANY TORNADO WOULD BE LIMITED BY BOTH
COVERAGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT LARGE SCALE
MASS TRANSPORT...AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND FORCING...WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

...NRN TO CNTRL FL...
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 250-500 J PER KG/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/CNTRL FL THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER MAY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY SLOT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT MAY POSE SOME WIND/TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS PART OF
THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 21 AND O3 UTC.

...SOUTH FL...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS NOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS S FL. AT LEAST TWO MCV-TYPE
ROTATIONAL CLUSTERS APPEAR IN RADAR DATA MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUE
OFF THE SE COAST INLAND TO DADE COUNTY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FIRST AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...A BREAK IN DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIKELY BEFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH
APPROACH OF POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

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KJAN [181952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 181952
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM FLOOD 6 WSW ELLISVILLE 31.57N 89.30W
12/18/2009 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A PORTION OF HILL DR...OFF HWY 590...WAS WASHED OUT THIS
MORNING DUE TO HIGH WATER.


&&

$$

CME

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KMFL [181906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181906
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM TORNADO 4 E HOMESTEAD 25.47N 80.40W
12/18/2009 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMESTEAD POLICE RELAYED A REPORT BY MIAMI-DADE POLICE
THAT A TORNADO WAS SPOTTED IN UNINCORPORATED DADE COUNTY
OUTSIDE OF THE HOMESTEAD CITY LIMITS AT SW 328 ST AND SW
132 AVE AROUND 1100 AM.


&&

$$

RAGARCIA

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KMFL [181850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181850
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM TSTM WND DMG NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
12/18/2009 MIAMI-DADE FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 2 INJ *** 2 PEOPLE WERE INJURED DUE TO DAMAGE FROM
BROKEN GLASS NEAR NE 163 ST AND BISCAYNE BLVD IN NORTH
MIAMI BEACH.

0144 PM FLOOD HOLLYWOOD 26.03N 80.17W
12/18/2009 BROWARD FL BROADCAST MEDIA

HOMES FLOODED AROUND 1531 MAYO STREET IN HOLLYWOOD BY
12-18 INCHES DEEP OF WATER IN GARAGE. RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

RAGARCIA

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KMFL [181836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181836 CCA
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009
...CORRECTED TO CHANGE WESTVIEW ES REPORT...

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLASH FLOOD HOLLYWOOD 26.03N 80.17W
12/17/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MEDIA RELAYED REPORTS OF FLOODING AFFECTING HOLLYWOOD
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN HOLLYWOOD. CARS WERE REPORTED STRANDED
BY FLASH FLOODING. WORST FLOODING EAST OF FEDERAL HIGHWAY
ACCORDING TO CITY OF HOLLYWOOD EOC.

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD HALLANDALE BEACH 25.99N 80.14W
12/17/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL
MEDIA. 20 PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED TO SAFE SHELTER DUE TO
FLASH FLOODING IN HALLANDALE BEACH FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HOLLYWOOD 26.03N 80.17W
12/18/2009 M13.32 INCH BROWARD FL CO-OP OBSERVER

HOLLYWOOD WASTE WATER PLANT RECORDED 13.32 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM 700 AM ON THU, DEC 18, 2009 TO 700 AM ON FRI, DEC
19, 2009.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
12/18/2009 M14.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT REAL-TIME RAIN GAUGE
REPORTED 14.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 7AM THU 12/17/09 TO
7AM FRI 12/18/09.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SW POMPANO BEACH 26.23N 80.12W
12/18/2009 M7.42 INCH BROWARD FL MESONET

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT REAL-TIME RAIN GAUGE SW OF
POMPANO BEACH REPORTED 7.42 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 7AM THU
12/17/09 TO 7AM FRI 12/18/09.

0900 AM FLOOD PEMBROKE PARK 25.99N 80.18W
12/18/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

AREAL FLOODING REPORTED AT THE BAMBOO TRAILER PARK AT
2410 CHARLES ROAD IN PEMBROKE PARK. THE AREA IS
LANDLOCKED AND PUBLIC WORKS IS PRESENT WITH PUMPS TO WORK
ON THE FLOOD WATERS. ONE HOME ON 3001 SW 23RD ST WAS
SURROUNDED AND BREACHED BY FLOOD WATERS. A FAMILY WAS
TRAPPED AND RESCUE WAS CALLED.

1115 AM TSTM WND GST 4 ENE HIALEAH 25.89N 80.23W
12/18/2009 E43.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

WFOR-TV RELAYED A MESONET-RECORDED WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AT
WESTVIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 2101 NW 127 ST.


&&

$$

RAGARCIA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2257

ACUS11 KWNS 181833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181832
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SMOKEY MTNS / PARTS OF WRN NC AND PIEDMONT / ERN TN
/ SWRN VA / SERN WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 181832Z - 182230Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY COMMENCE
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE
18-21Z PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO
SWRN VA AND SERN WV 21-00Z. LOCALIZED RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER E FACING
SLOPES IN WRN NC AND PERHAPS SW VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE WEDGE FRONT FROM
PARTS OF SRN GA NEWD OVER THE ADJACENT SC/NC COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 32 DEG F ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF WRN
NC AND SWRN VA. WET BULBING COOLING IN AREAS OF STRONG ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO WET SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS W OF I-85.

RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN A SLUG OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING NWD
ACROSS NRN GA THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MEASURED RAINFALL RATES
0.20-0.30 INCH PER HOUR IN NRN GA AND WRN PART OF UPSTATE SC. AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER AL/GA MOVES NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING H8-H6 FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL UVV/S SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY...ACCORDING TO RADAR MOSAIC EXTRAPOLATION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS 6 HOURLY QPF...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY. RECENTLY DETECTED LIGHTNING OVER WRN NC INDICATES
UPRIGHT CONVECTION EXISTS OVER A SMALL AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THIS EVENING...ETAKF/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE E FACING
SLOPES IN PARTS OF NWRN NC INTO SWRN VA. THIS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
SNOW BURSTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR OR AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36317950 35488114 35128242 35008351 35438369 36078300
36528238 37078183 37588138 37968029 37847951 37077910
36317950

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KLIX [181821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 181821
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MANDEVILLE 30.37N 90.08W
12/18/2009 ST. TAMMANY LA NEWSPAPER

STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN SEVERAL TREES THAT KNOCKED OUT
POWER TO ABOUT 300 HOMES IN MANDEVILLE AND COVINGTON.
TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

DMANNING

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KMFL [181801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181801
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLASH FLOOD HOLLYWOOD 26.03N 80.17W
12/17/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MEDIA RELAYED REPORTS OF FLOODING AFFECTING HOLLYWOOD
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN HOLLYWOOD. CARS WERE REPORTED STRANDED
BY FLASH FLOODING. WORST FLOODING EAST OF FEDERAL HIGHWAY
ACCORDING TO CITY OF HOLLYWOOD EOC.

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD HALLANDALE BEACH 25.99N 80.14W
12/17/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL
MEDIA. 20 PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED TO SAFE SHELTER DUE TO
FLASH FLOODING IN HALLANDALE BEACH FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HOLLYWOOD 26.03N 80.17W
12/18/2009 M13.32 INCH BROWARD FL CO-OP OBSERVER

HOLLYWOOD WASTE WATER PLANT RECORDED 13.32 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM 700 AM ON THU, DEC 18, 2009 TO 700 AM ON FRI, DEC
19, 2009.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
12/18/2009 M14.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT REAL-TIME RAIN GAUGE
REPORTED 14.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 7AM THU 12/17/09 TO
7AM FRI 12/18/09.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SW POMPANO BEACH 26.23N 80.12W
12/18/2009 M7.42 INCH BROWARD FL MESONET

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT REAL-TIME RAIN GAUGE SW OF
POMPANO BEACH REPORTED 7.42 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 7AM THU
12/17/09 TO 7AM FRI 12/18/09.

0900 AM FLOOD PEMBROKE PARK 25.99N 80.18W
12/18/2009 BROWARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

AREAL FLOODING REPORTED AT THE BAMBOO TRAILER PARK AT
2410 CHARLES ROAD IN PEMBROKE PARK. THE AREA IS
LANDLOCKED AND PUBLIC WORKS IS PRESENT WITH PUMPS TO WORK
ON THE FLOOD WATERS. ONE HOME ON 3001 SW 23RD ST WAS
SURROUNDED AND BREACHED BY FLOOD WATERS. A FAMILY WAS
TRAPPED AND RESCUE WAS CALLED.

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE HIALEAH 25.89N 80.23W
12/18/2009 E43.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

WFOR-TV RELAYED A MESONET-RECORDED WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AT
WESTVIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 2101 NW 127 ST.


&&

$$

RAGARCIA

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KHUN [181736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 181736
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1136 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD 1 SE HARVEST 34.84N 86.74W
12/18/2009 MADISON AL NWS EMPLOYEE

A HALF FOOT OF FLOWING WATER WAS REPORTED OVER FORDS
CHAPEL RD.

1047 AM FLOOD 5 SW ALBERTVILLE 34.20N 86.27W
12/18/2009 MARSHALL AL EMERGENCY MNGR

CARNES RD NEAR HORTON WAS BARRICADED DUE TO HIGH WATER.


&&

$$

DL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181728
SWODY2
SPC AC 181727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PROGGED OVER -- OR JUST OFF -- THE NC OUTER BANKS REGION
EARLY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NWD/NNEWD...WITH THE CENTER TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
RESIDE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...HAVING CLEARED THE
FL PENINSULA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.

THIS LOW/FRONT -- WHILE OFFSHORE -- IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
QUICKLY EWD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW EWD PROGRESS
OF THE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.

FARTHER W...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE NW COAST
LATE...WITH A RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR LYING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...A LACK OF
ONSHORE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL. IN THE
WEST...APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 12/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181631
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FLORIDA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND FROM FL PNHDL TO GA/FL
BORDER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
LIKELY ALONG SC COASTAL FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THIS PROCESS OCCURS
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LENDS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND PHASES WITH A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING DEEP-LAYER COASTAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF FL
BY THAT TIME.

...N FL INTO SRN GA...
DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN GULF THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ABSENT. DRY SLOT AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE NRN GULF HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A LACK OF GREATER TSTM
COVERAGE. PRIMARY CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO
POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS IF ANY DISCRETE LONGER-LIVED TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THE WINDOW IN TIME/SPACE FOR ANY TORNADO WOULD BE LIMITED BY BOTH
COVERAGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT LARGE SCALE
MASS TRANSPORT...AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND FORCING...WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

...NRN TO CNTRL FL...
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 250-500 J PER KG/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/CNTRL FL THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER MAY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY SLOT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT MAY POSE SOME WIND/TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS PART OF
THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 21 AND O3 UTC.

...SOUTH FL...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS NOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS S FL. AT LEAST TWO MCV-TYPE
ROTATIONAL CLUSTERS APPEAR IN RADAR DATA MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUE
OFF THE SE COAST INLAND TO DADE COUNTY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FIRST AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...A BREAK IN DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIKELY BEFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH
APPROACH OF POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

..CARBIN.. 12/18/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2256

ACUS11 KWNS 181617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181616
FLZ000-181715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 804...

VALID 181616Z - 181715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 804 CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTH FL. DATA ALSO STRONGLY
SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO MCV-TYPE ROTATIONAL CLUSTERS ADVANCING
STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SERVING AS THE EFFECTIVE BACK EDGE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. AHEAD OF THIS ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...CONTINUE
JUST OFF THE SE COAST WITH A FEW TRAILING SUPERCELLS INLAND OVER
DADE COUNTY. A BREAK IN DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE PRE-FRONTAL SEVERE
CONVECTION EVOLVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 24408177 26738177 27627987 25317986 24408177

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KGJT [181553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 181553
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
853 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM DENSE FOG REDLANDS 39.09N 108.65W
12/18/2009 E0.12 MILE MESA CO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT0900221

$$

AS

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KBMX [181520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 181520
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
920 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM FLOOD SYCAMORE 33.25N 86.20W
12/18/2009 TALLADEGA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MAIN ST IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE NEAR THE POST OFFICE IN
SYCAMORE.


&&

$$

GOLDEN

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KBMX [181517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 181517
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
917 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM FLOOD SYLACAUGA 33.18N 86.26W
12/18/2009 TALLADEGA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALABAMA AVE AT TUSKEGEE AVE IS FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN
SYLACAUGA.


&&

$$

GOLDEN

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KCHS [181504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 181504
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1004 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

ASHLEY MARINA REPORTS 2 1/2 TO 3 INCHES OF MAINLY SALT
WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF THEIR PARKING LOT. HAD TO MOVE
CARS BUT NO PROPERTY WAS DAMAGED. THERE WAS PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.

0945 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
12/18/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

ASHLEY MARINE REPORTED 2 1/2 TO 3 INCHES OF MAINLY SALT
WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF THEIR PARKING LOT. HAD TO MOVE
CARS BUT NO PROPERTY WAS DAMAGED. THERE WAS PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.


&&

$$

JHP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 804...corrected

WWUS20 KWNS 181221 CCA
SEL4
SPC WW 181221 CCA
FLZ000-181800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 804...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL 100
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES
FLORIDA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD ACROSS S FL AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN SMALL CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22020.


...THOMPSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181242
SWODY1
SPC AC 181240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR
THE FL PENINSULA...

...FL AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A SURFACE CYCLONE S OF MOB THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS N FL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ADJACENT N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EJECTS ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH
THAT WILL REACH THE MID MS VALLEY. GRADUAL PHASING WILL OCCUR LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/S FL AS
A RESIDUAL/WEAK FRONT ALONG THE SE FL COAST LIFTS NWD IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ERN GULF AND
REACH THE FL W COAST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ALL OF
FL FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LOOSE BAND OF MAINLY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SWD TO PALM BEACH. RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUOYANCY AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAND HAVE LIMITED THE
SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THUS FAR...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BELT
OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
KEYS/SE GULF ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE
MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS THREAT SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NWD TOWARD CENTRAL
AND N FL WITH THE RETREAT OF THE WEAK FRONT NOW NEAR THE
COAST...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN MAKE DESTABILIZATION LESS
CERTAIN TOWARD N FL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FL FROM THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...LEAVING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 12/18/2009

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 804

WWUS20 KWNS 181221
SEL4
SPC WW 181221
FLZ000-CWZ000-181800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 AM EDT FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 820 AM UNTIL 200
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES
FLORIDA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE
SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD ACROSS S FL AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN SMALL CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22020.


...THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2255

ACUS11 KWNS 181139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181139
FLZ000-181345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL...FL KEYS...AND NARROW PORTIONS ERN AND WRN
COASTAL REGIONS NWD TO CENTRAL FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181139Z - 181345Z

INLAND COVERAGE OF SFC-BASED TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SUPERCELLS...SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...AS HIGHER-THETAE
MARINE AIR OVERSPREADS GREATER PORTION OF FL...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AND INLAND AREAS NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NRN FL WITH
NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS LINGERING ACROSS
MOST OF INTERIOR PENINSULA. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG
INVOF KEYS...MIA AND SRN EVERGLADES...DIMINISHING NWD WITH RAPID
INCREASE IN CINH W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES -- BOTH IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MIDLEVEL DPVA -- MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND GREATER TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD RESULT...
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SUCH AS THOSE ALREADY OBSERVED
OVER GULF AND STRAITS SURROUNDING S FL AND KEYS. LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...MID-UPPER FLOW...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AIR MASS
EACH ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING AS
MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER LOWER DELTA REGION AND CENTRAL GULF LIFTS
NEWD.

FARTHER N UP E COAST...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VERY NEARLY AS DISCUSSED
IN PREVIOUS MCD 2254 BUT SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD. STRONGEST-RIGHTWARD
CELL DEVIANCE WILL OCCUR WITH MOST TORNADO-PRONE STORMS...BUT ALSO
WILL TEND TO FAVOR OFFSHORE TRANSLATION GIVEN ORIENTATION OF
COASTLINE.

FARTHER N UP W COAST...AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE.
COMBINATION OF LAND BREEZE AND AMBIENT/ISALLOBARIC FORCING CONTINUES
ELY COMPONENT...WITH LATTER BEING DOMINANT PROCESS. GRADUAL VEERING
OF NEAR-COASTAL WINDS WILL PERMIT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE AIR MASS NOW
BEING SHUNTED OFFSHORE TO APCH COASTAL AREAS AND RENDER RELATIVELY
STABLE/LOW-DEWPOINT LAYER OF INLAND AIR MORE SHALLOW. SVR THREAT
FROM FMY VICINITY NWD ACCORDINGLY WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP...BUT
MAY REQUIRE WW LATER THIS MORNING.

..EDWARDS.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 28758069 28448050 28418057 28198057 27788038 26938004
26648000 25878012 25438019 25048044 24838071 24688110
24628132 24638144 24528179 24528217 24588219 24628210
24598171 24698169 24808144 24828126 24728111 24808091
24898071 24938090 25018103 25148116 25218118 25368113
25498123 25628126 25788137 25908164 25818166 25888175
26178181 26448196 26438202 26418211 26458220 26698229
26838228 27018244 27238254 27418270 27518276 27688273
27828284 28158274 28838265 28668239 28008245 27368233
26688167 26388113 26468054 27108043 28298077 28688089
28758069

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180952
SWOD48
SPC AC 180951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CNTRL STATES AND A DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
AGREEMENT MOVING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT/DAY 5 BUT THE GFS IS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WHICH SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST ACROSS LA...MS AND AR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...WILL ADD A DAY 6 SEVERE
THREAT AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD ON THURSDAY/DAY 7...A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
GULF COAST STATES AND SRN ATLANTIC BUT THE THREAT THERE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A THREAT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2254

ACUS11 KWNS 180915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180914
FLZ000-181115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL/SERN FL PENINSULA COASTAL AREAS...FL
KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180914Z - 181115Z

CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE IN THIS CORRIDOR
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT APPEARS TOO MRGL AND LIMITED IN LAND
AREA TO WARRANT WW ATTM.

WSR-88D UNITS AND TDWRS OVER THIS REGION HAVE INDICATED
INTERMITTENT/SHORT-LIVED AREAS OF STORM-SCALE ROTATION IN RELATIVELY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS OFFSHORE MAINLAND. MOST OF THESE ARE NOT
PRODUCING CG LTG...AND HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS ACTIVITY NEARS BEACHES AND MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE 5-8 DEG OFF VALUES CHARACTERIZING
HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS OVER GULF STREAM. FARTHER S...CELLS OVER
STRAITS S OF KEYS ARE IN WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY INCREASE
SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER LOWER DELTA REGION AND
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES MOVING NEWD...EXPECT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS JUST ABOVE SFC OVER ENTIRE REGION...WHICH WILL LENGTHEN
HODOGRAPHS...AND WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INVOF IMMEDIATE PENINSULAR COAST THROUGH MIXING
AND ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS THROUGH
12Z SUGGEST ENOUGH MARITIME THETAE TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND YIELD AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM MIA AREA SWWD...DIMINISHING
NWD TO BELOW 250 J/KG BETWEEN VRB-MLB. BY CONTRAST...AS BUOYANCY
WEAKENS...SHEAR INCREASES NWD IN INCREASING PROXIMITY TO STRONGER
MIDLATITUDE WLYS ALOFT AND TO GREATER HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THIS
TREND IS EVIDENT ATTM IN NWD-EXPANDING VWP HODOGRAPHS AND IN FCST
SOUNDINGS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH CAPE
DEPTH -- SMALLER FOR SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE PLUMES -- BUT 45-55 KT
VALUES NOW OFFSHORE MAY OCCUR OVER SOME AREAS OF COAST.

WATCH IS NOT LIKELY FOR THIS SPECIFIC SITUATION. HOWEVER...
SEPARATE MCD/WATCH PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR
POTENTIALLY BETTER-ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT
SHIFTING/SPREADING EWD FROM GULF...MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO APCHG
UPPER TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON 28398057 28168057 27728036 26938004 26738001 25918011
25338021 24998049 24788078 24688108 24518180 24548218
24608211 24578177 24708168 24768141 24758131 24708123
24818092 24898074 24968099 25148102 25328073 25818042
26298026 26958016 27628050 28158072 28398057

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KGJT [180857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 180857
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
157 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM DENSE FOG FRUITA 39.16N 108.73W
12/18/2009 E0.06 MILE MESA CO NWS EMPLOYEE

AT 130 AM... ESTIMATED VIS BETWEEN 300 AND 500 FT.
NEIGHBORS HOUSE OBSCURED IN FOG.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT0900220

$$

MALEKSA

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KMLB [180821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 180821
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 AM TSTM WND GST 5 NW FORT PIERCE 27.50N 80.37W
12/18/2009 M41 MPH ST. LUCIE FL ASOS

KFPR AIRPORT MEASURED 150/36 KNOTS AT 259 AM.


&&

$$

DVD

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180711
SWODY3
SPC AC 180710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AS
WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES.
AT THE SFC... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT SUNDAY IN THE MS VALLEY
AND GULF COAST STATES IMPEDING MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS REASON...NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180553
SWODY2
SPC AC 180553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ON SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
U.S. PREVENTING MOISTURE RETURN AND MAKING CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONUS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180544
SWODY1
SPC AC 180543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND CSTL
GA/SC...

...FL AND CSTL GA/SC...
SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF
BASIN/LWR MS VLY IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS TURNING NEWD TOWARD THE
SRN APLCNS WITH SRN FRINGES OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FL FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. MEANWHILE...A LEAD SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
AUGMENTING CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA/YUCATAN NWD TO THE SCNTRL GULF AT
05Z...WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS FL FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING OVER THE CNTRL GULF AND
MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO CSTL GA/SC BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE NC BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WRMFNT WILL REDEVELOP
NWD INTO SERN GA DURING THE DAY...WITH RICHER LLVL THETA-E
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL.

00Z WRF-NMM4KM...NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST SVR
PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD IMPULSE. AS WARM/
MOIST ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...TSTMS WILL
EXPAND/EVOLVE FROM THE SERN GULF EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE SELY WINDS BENEATH INCREASING WSWLY
MID/UPR-LVL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A FEW DMGG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE... PRIMARILY WITHIN THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL/SRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN SHIFTING E AND SE INTO THE ATLC WATERS DURING THE AFTN
WITH TRAILING STORMS LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL/KEYS AS THE
PRIMARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FL. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES VEER WITH
TIME AS THE FORMER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITS WITH LLVL SHEAR
RELAXING. HOWEVER...STORM MODE COULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE KEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
DMGG WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER N...THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER... THOUGH
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF THE WRMFNT/SFC LOW
TRACK. EXPECT THAT ANY SEMBLANCE OF A SQLN THAT IS ASSOCD WITH THE
PRIMARY UPR TROUGH WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
MID-LATE MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN OVER WRN FL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STRONG SHEAR AND AT LEAST SOME
INSTABILITY...THE SVR THREAT /INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOES-DMGG WINDS/
WILL BE NON-ZERO ALONG/S OF THE SFC LOW TRACK FARTHER N.

..RACY.. 12/18/2009

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