DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060055
SWODY1
SPC AC 060052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL CA...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA IS MOVING THROUGH
CA. WV IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGEST VORT MAX JUST OFF THE SRN CA
COAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE EARLIER
TODAY...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE VANDENBERG 00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONFINED TO LAYERS WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE -15C AND LIMITED CHARGE SEPARATION POTENTIAL. THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THE REMAINDER
OF THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY NOT EXCEED 10%.

AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CNTRL CA COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..DIAL.. 02/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 052000
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF CA. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED FROM
NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST EXTENDING SWD TO ABOUT 200 STATUTE MILES
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD SRN CA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST COMBINED
WITH THE LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST IN THE LOS
ANGELES AREA AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME MOVES TOWARD
THE COAST AND INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. A SEPARATE AREA WITH
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL COULD EXIST ALONG THE COAST OF NRN CA WHERE
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ABOUT 20
TO 30 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

FURTHER EAST IN THE CNTRL U.S...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 02/05/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051708
SWODY2
SPC AC 051706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER MUCH LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF ALONG THE COAST
OF CNTRL CA FRIDAY. A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND SRN CA DO
NOT APPEAR THAT STEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST FRIDAY
TO MOVE EWD FROM THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THE ERN STATES. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN...LIFT SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/05/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051616
SWODY1
SPC AC 051612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 32N/125W AND 39N/127W RESPECTIVELY. SRN
IMPULSE AND STRONGEST JET MAX WILL DRIVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY AS
IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. NRN IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN CA COAST WHILE BROADER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET/TROUGH
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF CA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD BAND EVOLVING ALONG E SIDE OF IMPULSE OFF
THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL/NRN CA TODAY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ALONG MUCH OF THE
SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS MAY OCCUR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF
TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION...ESPECIALLY
FROM LAX NWD. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CA...AND VORT MAX APPROACHING THE SRN
COAST...SETUP LIKELY WILL YIELD SHALLOW/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...DESPITE STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL
CAA. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO ASSIST
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ONSHORE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW
FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL WITH
STRONGER CORES.

..EVANS.. 02/05/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051228
SWODY1
SPC AC 051225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA CST EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE ACROSS CA AND THE SRN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW ALONG 140W DIGS SSE TO FORM
ANOTHER NEW CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA CST LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. MAIN
IMPULSE OF NOTE ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS LOW APPEARS TO BE VORT MAX
NOW NEAR 26N/126W. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE LAX/SAN AREA BY
00Z FRI AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/SRN CA CST...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD BAND ON E SIDE OF APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH
WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MOST OF SRN AND CNTRL CA TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS MAY OCCUR ALONG CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE CST.
CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM LAX NWD. COUPLED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CNTRL CA...AND VORT MAX
APPROACHING THE S CST...SETUP LIKELY WILL YIELD SCTD CONVECTION/
ISOLD STORMS BY AFTN. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK...DESPITE LIFT AND MID LVL CAA. SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CSTL SECTIONS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO ASSIST DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ONSHORE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW FREEZING LVLS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/05/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050855
SWOD48
SPC AC 050854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK...

...DAY4/SUNDAY TO MONDAY MORNING...
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE THE EJECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED 80-100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK...FROM
NM/WEST TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 3-6H BEHIND GFS IN TERMS OF THE EMERGENCE OF
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS TX/OK AREAS ON SUNDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AMONGST THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND
STRONGLY INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE
SPREADING EAST FROM TX TO WRN OK DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER KS AND DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT SURGES
EWD.

DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
WITHIN THE ADVANCING SQUALL LINE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE ONLY 150-300 J PER KG BASED ON GFS SOUNDINGS/. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD UNFOLD WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS TX WHERE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACT ON POTENTIALLY HIGHER
THETA-E AIR MASS ON THE APEX OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
OBVIOUSLY...IF GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER.

...DAY5/MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING...
SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AS STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND LEAVE RESIDUAL WEAK NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BEHIND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THE DAY5 OTLK AREA EXISTS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DECAYING SQUALL LINE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STORMS COULD ALSO PERSIST ALONG THIS AXIS
DURING THE DAY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
NOW BEING FORECAST...APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN IN EARLIER FORECASTS.

...DAY6-8/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY5 MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL U.S./MS
VALLEY REGIONS ON DAY7/WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD OCCUR AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS AND SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE AND
COLD FRONT PER LATEST GFS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOISTURE/GREATER INSTABILITY BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE
ENHANCED RETURN FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE.

HOWEVER...A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS EXIST WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM AND THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AS WELL AS
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS...PRECLUDE MAKING A
RELIABLE SEVERE STORM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 02/05/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050637
SWODY3
SPC AC 050634

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL FALL AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THIS
STRONG SYSTEM TRAVELS EAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL REMAINED ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

...AZ...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM PARTS OF SRN CA INTO WRN
AND SRN AZ ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS THESE AREAS. NAM AND GFS FCSTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL EXIST
WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED 80-100KT JET
AS IT PRECEDES THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER ACROSS AZ THROUGH THE DAY.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-26C AT 500MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH DYNAMIC AND LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SUSTAINING TSTM POTENTIAL WITHIN LARGER AREA OF
RAIN AND CLOUDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUCH A REGIME COULD BRIEFLY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE/ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL
AND/OR WIND. THIS POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER SRN AZ/NRN GULF OF CA
AREA WHERE MARGINALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR.

CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF OUTPUT INDICATE
THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND/OR COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...FORECAST TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE STORMS COULD BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

..CARBIN.. 02/05/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050528
SWODY2
SPC AC 050527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED FEB 04 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ACTIVE/DYNAMIC WEATHER REGIME WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE WEST
COAST TODAY AND THEN EXPAND INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. FIRST...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND
130W OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
NEWD/INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE START OF THE DAY2
PERIOD/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED ON THE WEST COAST BY ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY APPROACHING 140W. THIS
SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND LEAD TO 60-90M 12H 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG ASCENT ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHILE COLD AIR MASS
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL MODIFICATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG.

...CNTRL/SRN CA COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J PER
KG/ ALONG THE CA COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTENING WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITHIN REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY LESSENING STATIC STABILITY
AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
SMALL HAIL FROM A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER/PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
CELLS. HOWEVER...GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-26C AT 500MB/ IS FORECAST TO LAG THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AND GENERALLY
WEAK CAPE SHOULD KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS
QUITE LOW.

..CARBIN.. 02/05/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050514
SWODY1
SPC AC 050511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST WED FEB 04 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA COASTAL AREA...

CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH CA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SEWD
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CA COAST.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
WAKE OF THIS BAND OF ASCENT...MODEST STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM COLDER AIR ALOFT ATTENDING THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD ONSHORE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST BENEATH MODEST COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT. COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONSHORE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN AOB 10% DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 02/05/2009

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