SWODY1
SPC AC 051957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF CA. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED FROM
NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST EXTENDING SWD TO ABOUT 200 STATUTE MILES
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD SRN CA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST COMBINED
WITH THE LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST IN THE LOS
ANGELES AREA AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME MOVES TOWARD
THE COAST AND INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. A SEPARATE AREA WITH
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL COULD EXIST ALONG THE COAST OF NRN CA WHERE
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ABOUT 20
TO 30 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE CNTRL U.S...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.
..BROYLES.. 02/05/2009
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