NWUS53 KOAX 061328
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
827 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE ROYAL 42.32N 98.09W
08/06/2013 M1.74 INCH ANTELOPE NE CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
LANDSVORK
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Tuesday, August 6, 2013
KOAX [061308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061308
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
808 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 E BLAIR 41.54N 96.12W
08/06/2013 WASHINGTON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF OF BUILDING BLOWN OFF
&&
$$
BKERN
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
808 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 E BLAIR 41.54N 96.12W
08/06/2013 WASHINGTON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF OF BUILDING BLOWN OFF
&&
$$
BKERN
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KOAX [061307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061307
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
807 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0807 AM HEAVY RAIN FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 M1.80 INCH DODGE NE AMATEUR RADIO
FELL BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM.
&&
$$
PEARSON
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
807 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0807 AM HEAVY RAIN FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 M1.80 INCH DODGE NE AMATEUR RADIO
FELL BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM.
&&
$$
PEARSON
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KOAX [061305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061305
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
804 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0801 AM FLASH FLOOD FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 DODGE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN FREMONT.
&&
$$
PEARSON
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
804 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0801 AM FLASH FLOOD FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 DODGE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN FREMONT.
&&
$$
PEARSON
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 061303
SWODY1
SPC AC 061301
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NEWD INTO
THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE MB THIS PERIOD AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON ITS SW FLANK...NOW OVER MT/ND...TRACKS ESE
WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...A SEPARATE BAND OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED W
TO WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO MO AND THE LWR OH
VLY...ON NRN FRINGE OF STNRY RIDGE OVER TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A VORT MAX WILL TRACK SLOWLY N ACROSS AZ...AHEAD
OF A LOW/TROUGH EDGING E TOWARD THE CA CST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING ND FROM S CNTRL
CANADA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO BE GENERATED FROM STORMS
THAT FORM LATER TODAY...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS THE
NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS FARTHER S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN CENTERS
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WED AS MT/ND
IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD.
...CNTRL PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
MDT WNW MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL MAINTAIN
DEEP EML ACROSS MUCH OF SD...NEB...WRN IA...AND KS TODAY...WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
SE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80/. THE
GREATEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000
J/KG...SHOULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS...S OF
MORNING STORMS IN NEB AND W OF MCS NOW WEAKENING IN MO. GIVEN DEGREE
OF BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT 700-500 MB FLOW...SFC HEATING
COULD YIELD CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
SVR WIND AND HAIL.
FARTHER N...LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE IN ERN SD/MN.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
FRONTAL UPLIFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY PROGRESSIVE UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF STORMS BY MID AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD INTO MN...IA...AND WI BY
EVE. 50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR BENEATH AXIS OF MAIN UPR JET SUGGESTS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE LOW-LVL PATTERN FURTHER
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SE-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...WITH
ATTENDANT BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND EWD INTO THE
UPR MIDWEST LATER IN THE EVE.
FARTHER SW...OTHER STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE
INVOF LEE TROUGH AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WRN KS...AND
PERHAPS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO. STRONG LOW-LVL BUOYANCY
AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT MOVE/DEVELOP
PREFERENTIALLY E/ENE INTO MO AND THE MID-MS VLY LATER TNGT/EARLY WED
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.
...OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN...
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN
AXIS OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ EXTENDING SE FROM ON-GOING MCS NOW
CENTERED IN SE MO. A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WITH AN
A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 08/06/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 061301
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NEWD INTO
THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE MB THIS PERIOD AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON ITS SW FLANK...NOW OVER MT/ND...TRACKS ESE
WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...A SEPARATE BAND OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED W
TO WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO MO AND THE LWR OH
VLY...ON NRN FRINGE OF STNRY RIDGE OVER TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A VORT MAX WILL TRACK SLOWLY N ACROSS AZ...AHEAD
OF A LOW/TROUGH EDGING E TOWARD THE CA CST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING ND FROM S CNTRL
CANADA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO BE GENERATED FROM STORMS
THAT FORM LATER TODAY...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS THE
NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS FARTHER S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN CENTERS
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WED AS MT/ND
IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD.
...CNTRL PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
MDT WNW MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL MAINTAIN
DEEP EML ACROSS MUCH OF SD...NEB...WRN IA...AND KS TODAY...WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
SE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80/. THE
GREATEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000
J/KG...SHOULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS...S OF
MORNING STORMS IN NEB AND W OF MCS NOW WEAKENING IN MO. GIVEN DEGREE
OF BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT 700-500 MB FLOW...SFC HEATING
COULD YIELD CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
SVR WIND AND HAIL.
FARTHER N...LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE IN ERN SD/MN.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
FRONTAL UPLIFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY PROGRESSIVE UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF STORMS BY MID AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD INTO MN...IA...AND WI BY
EVE. 50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR BENEATH AXIS OF MAIN UPR JET SUGGESTS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE LOW-LVL PATTERN FURTHER
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SE-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...WITH
ATTENDANT BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND EWD INTO THE
UPR MIDWEST LATER IN THE EVE.
FARTHER SW...OTHER STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE
INVOF LEE TROUGH AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WRN KS...AND
PERHAPS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO. STRONG LOW-LVL BUOYANCY
AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT MOVE/DEVELOP
PREFERENTIALLY E/ENE INTO MO AND THE MID-MS VLY LATER TNGT/EARLY WED
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.
...OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN...
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN
AXIS OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ EXTENDING SE FROM ON-GOING MCS NOW
CENTERED IN SE MO. A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WITH AN
A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 08/06/2013
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KHUN [061302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KHUN 061302
LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
802 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW MERIDIANVILLE 34.90N 86.63W
08/06/2013 E2.00 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF WATER REPORTED OVER MURPHY HILLS
ROAD JUST SOUTH OF GRIMWOOD ROAD.
&&
$$
KWEBER
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LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
802 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW MERIDIANVILLE 34.90N 86.63W
08/06/2013 E2.00 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF WATER REPORTED OVER MURPHY HILLS
ROAD JUST SOUTH OF GRIMWOOD ROAD.
&&
$$
KWEBER
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KHUN [061301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHUN 061301
LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW MERIDIANVILLE 34.90N 86.63W
08/06/2013 E2.00 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN COVERING MURPHY HILLS ROAD
JUST SOUTH OF GRIMWOOD ROAD.
&&
$$
KWEBER
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LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW MERIDIANVILLE 34.90N 86.63W
08/06/2013 E2.00 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN COVERING MURPHY HILLS ROAD
JUST SOUTH OF GRIMWOOD ROAD.
&&
$$
KWEBER
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KSGF [061256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061256
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0749 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RICHLAND 37.89N 92.40W
08/06/2013 M6.00 INCH PULASKI MO BROADCAST MEDIA
SINCE MIDNIGHT OR 6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.00 INCHES
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0749 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RICHLAND 37.89N 92.40W
08/06/2013 M6.00 INCH PULASKI MO BROADCAST MEDIA
SINCE MIDNIGHT OR 6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.00 INCHES
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061238
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
737 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0737 AM HEAVY RAIN FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.16N 92.94W
08/06/2013 M5.50 INCH WEBSTER MO ASOS
5.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT... 7.30 FOR A 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
737 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0737 AM HEAVY RAIN FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.16N 92.94W
08/06/2013 M5.50 INCH WEBSTER MO ASOS
5.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT... 7.30 FOR A 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KOAX [061231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061231
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
730 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM TSTM WND GST 1 NE COLUMBUS 41.44N 97.34W
08/06/2013 E55 MPH PLATTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CZAPOTOC
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
730 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0728 AM TSTM WND GST 1 NE COLUMBUS 41.44N 97.34W
08/06/2013 E55 MPH PLATTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CZAPOTOC
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KOAX [061217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061217
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
717 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM TSTM WND GST BLAIR 41.54N 96.14W
08/06/2013 E70 MPH WASHINGTON NE TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED.
&&
$$
CZAPOTOC
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
717 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM TSTM WND GST BLAIR 41.54N 96.14W
08/06/2013 E70 MPH WASHINGTON NE TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED.
&&
$$
CZAPOTOC
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KSGF [061208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061208
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSE NEVADA 37.78N 94.34W
08/06/2013 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROAD WAS WASHED OUT AT STOCKADE ROAD.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSE NEVADA 37.78N 94.34W
08/06/2013 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROAD WAS WASHED OUT AT STOCKADE ROAD.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KOAX [061204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 061204
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0703 AM HAIL FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 E1.00 INCH DODGE NE NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
VDEWALD
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0703 AM HAIL FREMONT 41.44N 96.49W
08/06/2013 E1.00 INCH DODGE NE NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
VDEWALD
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KSGF [061204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061204
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE NEVADA 37.81N 94.30W
08/06/2013 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE UPROOTED AND POWER POLE BROKEN. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE NEVADA 37.81N 94.30W
08/06/2013 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE UPROOTED AND POWER POLE BROKEN. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 472
WWUS20 KWNS 061203
SEL2
SPC WW 061203
NEZ000-SDZ000-061500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
703 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472 ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA
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SEL2
SPC WW 061203
NEZ000-SDZ000-061500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
703 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472 ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473
WWUS20 KWNS 061132
SEL3
SPC WW 061132
IAZ000-NEZ000-061700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 625 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
NORFOLK NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES EAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...
DISCUSSION...STORMS WITHIN SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT TRACKED ESE
FROM SRN SD EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR.
THEY MAY POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AS THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ESE IN TANDEM WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN IA HIGH-LVL JET
STREAK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
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SEL3
SPC WW 061132
IAZ000-NEZ000-061700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 625 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
NORFOLK NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES EAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...
DISCUSSION...STORMS WITHIN SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT TRACKED ESE
FROM SRN SD EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR.
THEY MAY POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AS THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ESE IN TANDEM WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN IA HIGH-LVL JET
STREAK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
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KSGF [061129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061129
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0626 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE IBERIA 38.04N 92.23W
08/06/2013 MILLER MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE K NEAR LITTLE TAVERN CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0626 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE IBERIA 38.04N 92.23W
08/06/2013 MILLER MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE K NEAR LITTLE TAVERN CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061127
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0626 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W CROCKER 37.95N 92.32W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE U NEAR TAVERN CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0626 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W CROCKER 37.95N 92.32W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE U NEAR TAVERN CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061123
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE HOUSTON 37.28N 91.90W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 17 NEAR INDIAN CREEK ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE HOUSTON 37.28N 91.90W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 17 NEAR INDIAN CREEK ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061122
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE HOUSTON 37.34N 91.94W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE F JUST NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE HOUSTON 37.34N 91.94W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE F JUST NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061121
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W HOUSTON 37.33N 92.05W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE ZZ NEAR DOUGLAS ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W HOUSTON 37.33N 92.05W
08/06/2013 TEXAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE ZZ NEAR DOUGLAS ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
AWUS01 KWNH 061119
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061402-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...NORTHEAST
AR...WESTERN TN...SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 061117Z - 061402Z
SUMMARY...A SLOWLY WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM -- MCS --
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR COULD
CAUSE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO IS BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER DIVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. MUCAPE VALUES STARTING OFF NEAR 2000 J/KG
-- PER THE 00Z ARW GUIDANCE -- ARE BEING FED OVER A FRONTAL
ZONE/POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AR WHICH SHOWS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS. CIN IS FORCING
CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE TO ITS NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW AT THE 700 HPA AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS AROUND 35-40 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, WITH ITS INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER, MUCAPE VALUES
SLOWLY BECOME EXHAUSTED WITH TIME, WITH THE 00Z ARW BRINGING
VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BY 14Z, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN THE 06Z HRRR
DECREASES RAINFALL INTENSITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25
INCHES ARE HELPING TO DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES CURRENTLY IN THE 1-2" PER HOUR RANGE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NEAR TWO INCHES IN THREE HOURS,
WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED REGIONALLY WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR OVER AN
HOUR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PER 06Z GFS-BASED CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE
850-400 HPA MEAN FLOW ACROSS THR REGION.
MCS ARE KNOWN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SAB (WHICH INDICATED THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STICK AROUND ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO), USING THE LATEST GUIDANCE (WHICH INDICATES 14Z), AND THE
USUAL 15Z WEAKENING OF MCS WITHIN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENTS, USED THE
COMPROMISE 14Z AS A VALID TIME.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 39229123 39359223 39159305 38569283 37549231 36619220
36059215 35719118 35818976 36608889 37838929 38739017
39229123
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061402-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...NORTHEAST
AR...WESTERN TN...SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 061117Z - 061402Z
SUMMARY...A SLOWLY WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM -- MCS --
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR COULD
CAUSE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO IS BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER DIVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. MUCAPE VALUES STARTING OFF NEAR 2000 J/KG
-- PER THE 00Z ARW GUIDANCE -- ARE BEING FED OVER A FRONTAL
ZONE/POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AR WHICH SHOWS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS. CIN IS FORCING
CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE TO ITS NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW AT THE 700 HPA AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS AROUND 35-40 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, WITH ITS INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER, MUCAPE VALUES
SLOWLY BECOME EXHAUSTED WITH TIME, WITH THE 00Z ARW BRINGING
VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BY 14Z, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN THE 06Z HRRR
DECREASES RAINFALL INTENSITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25
INCHES ARE HELPING TO DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES CURRENTLY IN THE 1-2" PER HOUR RANGE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NEAR TWO INCHES IN THREE HOURS,
WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED REGIONALLY WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR OVER AN
HOUR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PER 06Z GFS-BASED CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE
850-400 HPA MEAN FLOW ACROSS THR REGION.
MCS ARE KNOWN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SAB (WHICH INDICATED THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STICK AROUND ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO), USING THE LATEST GUIDANCE (WHICH INDICATES 14Z), AND THE
USUAL 15Z WEAKENING OF MCS WITHIN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENTS, USED THE
COMPROMISE 14Z AS A VALID TIME.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 39229123 39359223 39159305 38569283 37549231 36619220
36059215 35719118 35818976 36608889 37838929 38739017
39229123
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KSGF [061109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061109
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 W STOUTLAND 37.81N 92.62W
08/06/2013 LACLEDE MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE BB NEAR THE DRY AUGLAIZE CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 W STOUTLAND 37.81N 92.62W
08/06/2013 LACLEDE MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ROUTE BB NEAR THE DRY AUGLAIZE CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061102
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0602 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N STOUTLAND 37.89N 92.51W
08/06/2013 CAMDEN MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 7 NEAR SHEPHARD ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0602 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N STOUTLAND 37.89N 92.51W
08/06/2013 CAMDEN MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 7 NEAR SHEPHARD ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061028
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE RICHLAND 37.80N 92.34W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 7 JUST NORTH OF I-44 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE RICHLAND 37.80N 92.34W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HWY 7 JUST NORTH OF I-44 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061022
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 AM FLASH FLOOD WAYNESVILLE 37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
A RESCUE BOAT HAS CAPSIZED WITH SEVERAL RESCUES PERSONEL
IN THE SWIFT WATER AT THIS TIME.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 AM FLASH FLOOD WAYNESVILLE 37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
A RESCUE BOAT HAS CAPSIZED WITH SEVERAL RESCUES PERSONEL
IN THE SWIFT WATER AT THIS TIME.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061016
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0514 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTAUK 37.45N 91.70W
08/06/2013 DENT MO PARK/FOREST SRVC
MONTAUK STATE PARK IS BEING EVAUCATED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0514 AM FLASH FLOOD MONTAUK 37.45N 91.70W
08/06/2013 DENT MO PARK/FOREST SRVC
MONTAUK STATE PARK IS BEING EVAUCATED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [061010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 061010
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 AM HEAVY RAIN FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.71N 92.16W
08/06/2013 M4.47 INCH PULASKI MO ASOS
4.47 INCHES MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 AM HEAVY RAIN FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.71N 92.16W
08/06/2013 M4.47 INCH PULASKI MO ASOS
4.47 INCHES MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1635
ACUS11 KWNS 061008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061007
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-061130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...
VALID 061007Z - 061130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN NEB
AND MAY REACH WRN IA LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR THE SD-NEB
LINE NEAR VALENTINE ESEWD TO NEAR NORFOLK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
ALONG A SHARP GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NEB AT DAYBREAK SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FASTER MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43289858 43349974 42860079 41239992 40469691 40729558
41219515 41659513 42199582 42739724 43289858
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061007
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-061130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...
VALID 061007Z - 061130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN NEB
AND MAY REACH WRN IA LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR THE SD-NEB
LINE NEAR VALENTINE ESEWD TO NEAR NORFOLK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
ALONG A SHARP GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NEB AT DAYBREAK SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FASTER MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43289858 43349974 42860079 41239992 40469691 40729558
41219515 41659513 42199582 42739724 43289858
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KSGF [060934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 060934
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE STOUTLAND 37.77N 92.43W
08/06/2013 LACLEDE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
ONE FOOT OF FAST MOVING WATER IS FLOWING OVER I-44
BETWEEN MILE MARKER 144 AND 145.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE STOUTLAND 37.77N 92.43W
08/06/2013 LACLEDE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
ONE FOOT OF FAST MOVING WATER IS FLOWING OVER I-44
BETWEEN MILE MARKER 144 AND 145.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KEAX [060906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KEAX 060906
LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0406 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E LEE'S SUMMIT 38.91N 94.33W
08/06/2013 M1.55 INCH JACKSON MO MESONET
1.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES.
&&
$$
MDUX
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LSREAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0406 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E LEE'S SUMMIT 38.91N 94.33W
08/06/2013 M1.55 INCH JACKSON MO MESONET
1.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES.
&&
$$
MDUX
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 471
WWUS20 KWNS 060903
SEL1
SPC WW 060903
KSZ000-MOZ000-060900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 471 ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
MISSOURI
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SEL1
SPC WW 060903
KSZ000-MOZ000-060900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 471 ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
MISSOURI
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KSGF [060856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 060856
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 AM FLASH FLOOD WAYNESVILLE 37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO PUBLIC
PUBLIC IS REPORTING SEVERE FLOODING NEAR DOWNTOWN
WAYNESVILLE WITH WATER ENTERING HOMES AT THIS TIME.
REPORTS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 AM FLASH FLOOD WAYNESVILLE 37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO PUBLIC
PUBLIC IS REPORTING SEVERE FLOODING NEAR DOWNTOWN
WAYNESVILLE WITH WATER ENTERING HOMES AT THIS TIME.
REPORTS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 060854
SWOD48
SPC AC 060854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS FARTHER WEST FROM THE
SRN THROUGH NRN ROCKIES. A FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NERN STATES WILL ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY SWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE SERN U.S. DAY 5...WHILE WRN PORTION LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES
EARLY IN 4-8 PERIOD...BUT WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY DAY 5-6...AND POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL EXIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON
TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE
AN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
..DIAL.. 08/06/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 060854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS FARTHER WEST FROM THE
SRN THROUGH NRN ROCKIES. A FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NERN STATES WILL ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY SWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE SERN U.S. DAY 5...WHILE WRN PORTION LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES
EARLY IN 4-8 PERIOD...BUT WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY DAY 5-6...AND POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL EXIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON
TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE
AN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
..DIAL.. 08/06/2013
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KSGF [060838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 060838
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0336 AM FLASH FLOOD FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.71N 92.16W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO OTHER FEDERAL
SEVERAL ROADWAYS ON BASE AT FORT LEONARD WOOD UNDER WATER
AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...W...38...AND 1
ROADWAYS FLOODED.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0336 AM FLASH FLOOD FORT LEONARD WOOD 37.71N 92.16W
08/06/2013 PULASKI MO OTHER FEDERAL
SEVERAL ROADWAYS ON BASE AT FORT LEONARD WOOD UNDER WATER
AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...W...38...AND 1
ROADWAYS FLOODED.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 472
WWUS20 KWNS 060755
SEL2
SPC WW 060755
NEZ000-SDZ000-061500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 250 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 115 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR OVER SW SD...SW OF PHP. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO HAVE
STRENGTHENED ALONG AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL WAA FARTHER SE NEAR THE
SD-NEB BORDER N OF ANW. RAPID CITY VWP HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
WNW FLOW OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES...WITH THE 3 KM WIND SPEED NOW 50
KTS. THIS INCREASE MAY BE RELATED TO THE ESE PROGRESSION OF UPR
IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN MT. CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE...THE PRESENCE OF EML PLUME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS...AND MOIST/SSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER NEB TOGETHER
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
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SEL2
SPC WW 060755
NEZ000-SDZ000-061500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 250 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 115 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST OF ONEILL
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR OVER SW SD...SW OF PHP. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO HAVE
STRENGTHENED ALONG AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL WAA FARTHER SE NEAR THE
SD-NEB BORDER N OF ANW. RAPID CITY VWP HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
WNW FLOW OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES...WITH THE 3 KM WIND SPEED NOW 50
KTS. THIS INCREASE MAY BE RELATED TO THE ESE PROGRESSION OF UPR
IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN MT. CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE...THE PRESENCE OF EML PLUME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS...AND MOIST/SSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER NEB TOGETHER
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1634
ACUS11 KWNS 060742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060742
NEZ000-SDZ000-060915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060742Z - 060915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SD WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE NEB-SD
BORDER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CURRENTLY
NEAR THE BADLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST PROFILER AT MERRIMAN NEB
SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. A FORWARD MOTION OF 40 KT SHOULD ENABLE
THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43020229 42750200 42520100 42210004 42079926 42179857
42409817 42719799 43149812 43489855 43729957 44050116
44070193 43780221 43530236 43020229
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060742
NEZ000-SDZ000-060915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060742Z - 060915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SD WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE NEB-SD
BORDER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CURRENTLY
NEAR THE BADLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST PROFILER AT MERRIMAN NEB
SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. A FORWARD MOTION OF 40 KT SHOULD ENABLE
THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43020229 42750200 42520100 42210004 42079926 42179857
42409817 42719799 43149812 43489855 43729957 44050116
44070193 43780221 43530236 43020229
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD INTO ONTARIO. FARTHER WEST...A NEAR STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER CA...WHILE A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHEARS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A FRONT SHOULD STALL
FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OK.
...KS/OK THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...
MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT THAT SHOULD
STALL FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND OK SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. MUCH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE
SFC-500 MB LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH AREAS OF STORMS
ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS KS INTO MO WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE NERN STATES. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONGOING STORMS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE A CATEGORICAL
AREA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 08/06/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 060730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD INTO ONTARIO. FARTHER WEST...A NEAR STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER CA...WHILE A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHEARS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A FRONT SHOULD STALL
FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OK.
...KS/OK THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...
MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT THAT SHOULD
STALL FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND OK SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. MUCH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE
SFC-500 MB LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH AREAS OF STORMS
ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS KS INTO MO WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE NERN STATES. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONGOING STORMS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE A CATEGORICAL
AREA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 08/06/2013
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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
AWUS01 KWNH 060724
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-061115-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 060710Z - 061115Z
SUMMARY...STRONG MCS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS GIVEN SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT HVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING STEADILY EWD THROUGH
ERN KS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ESP SRN PORTIONS OF MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE RECENT HVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY. CLOUD TOPS
TEMPS ASSOCD WITH THE MCS ARE AS COLD AS -80C AND THE LATEST IR
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE. MUCH OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS ASSOCD WITH A NOSE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS AIDED BY A SWLY 30 TO 40 KT LOW LVL JET EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
OVERRUNNING A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT. ENHANCED FORCING
ASSOCD WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE MCS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CHARACTER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE.
LATEST SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DYNAMICAL COMPONENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING MCV OVER
ERN KS IN BETWEEN KCNU AND KEMP. THIS DEVELOPING MCV WILL LIKELY
AID THE MESOSCALE FORCING OVER CNTRL/SRN MO WITH STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT VIA THE LOW LVL JET.
ALREADY SEEING SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF BANDED TYPE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS OVER S CNTRL MO NEAR KTBN.
EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDING INCLUDING
TRAINING CELLS OVER S CNTRL MO THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
MCS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ARRIVE IN TIME AND SUPPORT CELL MERGERS.
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
OVER S CNTRL MO INVOF OF TRAINING AND MERGING CELLS. EXTREMELY HVY
RAINFALL AMTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LOCALLY....AND THUS ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
ORRISON
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 39159483 39019532 38609570 37969564 37579581 37249568
36979514 36869464 36639412 36459316 35749166 35469084
35499043 35599025 35858985 36438952 37218969 38079078
38709229 39049362 39159483
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FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-061115-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 060710Z - 061115Z
SUMMARY...STRONG MCS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS GIVEN SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT HVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING STEADILY EWD THROUGH
ERN KS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ESP SRN PORTIONS OF MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE RECENT HVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY. CLOUD TOPS
TEMPS ASSOCD WITH THE MCS ARE AS COLD AS -80C AND THE LATEST IR
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE. MUCH OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS ASSOCD WITH A NOSE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS AIDED BY A SWLY 30 TO 40 KT LOW LVL JET EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
OVERRUNNING A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT. ENHANCED FORCING
ASSOCD WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE MCS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CHARACTER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE.
LATEST SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DYNAMICAL COMPONENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING MCV OVER
ERN KS IN BETWEEN KCNU AND KEMP. THIS DEVELOPING MCV WILL LIKELY
AID THE MESOSCALE FORCING OVER CNTRL/SRN MO WITH STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT VIA THE LOW LVL JET.
ALREADY SEEING SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF BANDED TYPE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS OVER S CNTRL MO NEAR KTBN.
EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDING INCLUDING
TRAINING CELLS OVER S CNTRL MO THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
MCS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ARRIVE IN TIME AND SUPPORT CELL MERGERS.
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
OVER S CNTRL MO INVOF OF TRAINING AND MERGING CELLS. EXTREMELY HVY
RAINFALL AMTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LOCALLY....AND THUS ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
ORRISON
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 39159483 39019532 38609570 37969564 37579581 37249568
36979514 36869464 36639412 36459316 35749166 35469084
35499043 35599025 35858985 36438952 37218969 38079078
38709229 39049362 39159483
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KSGF [060706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 060706
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
206 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND DMG DEVON 37.92N 94.82W
08/06/2013 BOURBON KS EMERGENCY MNGR
LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN DEVON ALONG WITH 1.96 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN ABOUT AN HOUR
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
206 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND DMG DEVON 37.92N 94.82W
08/06/2013 BOURBON KS EMERGENCY MNGR
LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN DEVON ALONG WITH 1.96 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN ABOUT AN HOUR
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 469
WWUS20 KWNS 060703
SEL9
SPC WW 060703
KSZ000-OKZ000-060600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 469 ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
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SEL9
SPC WW 060703
KSZ000-OKZ000-060600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 469 ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
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KTFX [060641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KTFX 060641
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 PM HAIL 5 SSW ETHRIDGE 48.49N 112.16W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE GLACIER WIND FARM.
0210 PM HAIL SHELBY 48.51N 111.86W
08/05/2013 E0.25 INCH TOOLE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
SMALL HAIL AND BREIF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHELBY
0230 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE JUDITH PEAK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0240 PM HAIL 11 S DEVON 48.30N 111.52W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
0301 PM HAIL HAVRE 48.54N 109.68W
08/05/2013 E0.25 INCH HILL MT PUBLIC
PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN HAVRE. BREIF HEAVY
RAIN OBSERVED AS WELL. STORM IS PASSING.
0302 PM HAIL HAVRE 48.55N 109.68W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED.
0315 PM HAIL 21 S CHESTER 48.21N 110.89W
08/05/2013 M0.50 INCH LIBERTY MT TRAINED SPOTTER
HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS.
0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE LIMA 44.69N 112.54W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE ANETLOPE RAWS LOCATION. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0321 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
08/05/2013 M51 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF LOMA.
0325 PM HAIL 5 NNE CUT BANK 48.70N 112.29W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
0328 PM HAIL 5 NNE LOMA 48.00N 110.47W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 50 MPH WINDS.
0335 PM HAIL 6 N ETHRIDGE 48.64N 112.12W
08/05/2013 M1.75 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. CROP DAMAGE.
0400 PM TSTM WND GST 9 NW ILIAD 47.89N 109.92W
08/05/2013 E60 MPH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
WINDS ESTIMATED TO AT LEAST 60 MPH. SEVERAL TREE
BRANCHES DOWN. PEAS SIZE HAIL AND .75 RAINFALL.
0413 PM HAIL 7 NNW DEVON 48.56N 111.56W
08/05/2013 M0.25 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED HAIL.
0415 PM HAIL 6 N DEVON 48.55N 111.49W
08/05/2013 M0.25 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE GALATA 48.54N 111.29W
08/05/2013 M68 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET
68 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST A FEW MILES NORTH OF
GALATA. TIME OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0515 PM HAIL 14 S INVERNESS 48.36N 110.74W
08/05/2013 E0.50 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
SHORT-LIVED HEAVY RAIN 0.18 INCHES.
0515 PM TSTM WND GST 14 S INVERNESS 48.36N 110.74W
08/05/2013 M36 MPH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
SHORT-LIVED HEAVY RAIN 0.18 INCHES.
0550 PM HAIL 4 SSW BOX ELDER 48.27N 110.05W
08/05/2013 M0.88 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL. LASTED 10 OR 15 MINUTES.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 PM HAIL 5 SSW ETHRIDGE 48.49N 112.16W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE GLACIER WIND FARM.
0210 PM HAIL SHELBY 48.51N 111.86W
08/05/2013 E0.25 INCH TOOLE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT
SMALL HAIL AND BREIF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHELBY
0230 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE JUDITH PEAK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0240 PM HAIL 11 S DEVON 48.30N 111.52W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
0301 PM HAIL HAVRE 48.54N 109.68W
08/05/2013 E0.25 INCH HILL MT PUBLIC
PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN HAVRE. BREIF HEAVY
RAIN OBSERVED AS WELL. STORM IS PASSING.
0302 PM HAIL HAVRE 48.55N 109.68W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED.
0315 PM HAIL 21 S CHESTER 48.21N 110.89W
08/05/2013 M0.50 INCH LIBERTY MT TRAINED SPOTTER
HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS.
0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE LIMA 44.69N 112.54W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE ANETLOPE RAWS LOCATION. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0321 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
08/05/2013 M51 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF LOMA.
0325 PM HAIL 5 NNE CUT BANK 48.70N 112.29W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
0328 PM HAIL 5 NNE LOMA 48.00N 110.47W
08/05/2013 M1.00 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 50 MPH WINDS.
0335 PM HAIL 6 N ETHRIDGE 48.64N 112.12W
08/05/2013 M1.75 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. CROP DAMAGE.
0400 PM TSTM WND GST 9 NW ILIAD 47.89N 109.92W
08/05/2013 E60 MPH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
WINDS ESTIMATED TO AT LEAST 60 MPH. SEVERAL TREE
BRANCHES DOWN. PEAS SIZE HAIL AND .75 RAINFALL.
0413 PM HAIL 7 NNW DEVON 48.56N 111.56W
08/05/2013 M0.25 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED HAIL.
0415 PM HAIL 6 N DEVON 48.55N 111.49W
08/05/2013 M0.25 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE GALATA 48.54N 111.29W
08/05/2013 M68 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET
68 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST A FEW MILES NORTH OF
GALATA. TIME OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
0515 PM HAIL 14 S INVERNESS 48.36N 110.74W
08/05/2013 E0.50 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
SHORT-LIVED HEAVY RAIN 0.18 INCHES.
0515 PM TSTM WND GST 14 S INVERNESS 48.36N 110.74W
08/05/2013 M36 MPH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER
SHORT-LIVED HEAVY RAIN 0.18 INCHES.
0550 PM HAIL 4 SSW BOX ELDER 48.27N 110.05W
08/05/2013 M0.88 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL. LASTED 10 OR 15 MINUTES.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [060631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 060631
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE GALATA 48.54N 111.29W
08/05/2013 M68 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET
68 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST A FEW MILES NORTH OF
GALATA. TIME OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE GALATA 48.54N 111.29W
08/05/2013 M68 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET
68 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST A FEW MILES NORTH OF
GALATA. TIME OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KSGF [060631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 060631
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND GST PITTSBURG 37.41N 94.70W
08/06/2013 E50 MPH CRAWFORD KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FIRE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATING 40 TO 50 MPH.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND GST PITTSBURG 37.41N 94.70W
08/06/2013 E50 MPH CRAWFORD KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FIRE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATING 40 TO 50 MPH.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KTFX [060621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 060621
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1221 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE JUDITH PEAK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1221 AM MDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
08/05/2013 M54 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET
54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE JUDITH PEAK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633
ACUS11 KWNS 060605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060604
ARZ000-MOZ000-060730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...NRN AND CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...
VALID 060604Z - 060730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS IN SE KS...MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 471.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR SE KS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SW MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
THE MCS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL AR WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SFC DEWPOINTS IN CNTRL AND NRN AR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.00 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENABLE THE MCS TO
MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
MUCH OF AR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING WITH THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36299378 35629317 35079247 34559200 34479132 34899099
35519109 36089162 36769204 37199237 37639273 37729308
37689340 37489371 37059382 36299378
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060604
ARZ000-MOZ000-060730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...NRN AND CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...
VALID 060604Z - 060730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS IN SE KS...MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 471.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR SE KS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SW MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
THE MCS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL AR WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SFC DEWPOINTS IN CNTRL AND NRN AR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.00 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENABLE THE MCS TO
MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
MUCH OF AR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING WITH THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36299378 35629317 35079247 34559200 34479132 34899099
35519109 36089162 36769204 37199237 37639273 37729308
37689340 37489371 37059382 36299378
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KICT [060603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KICT 060603
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0746 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SSE WILLOWDALE 37.49N 98.29W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
0753 PM HAIL ESE ZENDA 37.44N 98.28W
08/05/2013 E0.88 INCH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED ROUGHLY A DOZEN NICKEL SIZE HAIL STONES
AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
0758 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E ZENDA 37.45N 98.23W
08/05/2013 KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THEIR POWER WAS OUT AND ESTIMATED
WINDS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
0910 PM TSTM WND GST CUNNINGHAM 37.64N 98.43W
08/05/2013 E70.00 MPH KINGMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
0941 PM TSTM WND GST WNW PENALOSA 37.72N 98.32W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS
0942 PM HEAVY RAIN NICKERSON 38.15N 98.09W
08/05/2013 U0.00 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
0947 PM HEAVY RAIN NICKERSON 38.15N 98.09W
08/05/2013 E1.15 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 96 IN NICKERSON
FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES WATER DEPTH
0954 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HESSTON 38.14N 97.46W
08/05/2013 E55.00 MPH HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.
1006 PM TSTM WND GST NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W
08/05/2013 E77.00 MPH HARVEY KS AWOS
DELAYED REPORT FROM THE NEWTON AIRPORT
1011 PM TSTM WND GST SW NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W
08/05/2013 E80.00 MPH HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
ESTIMATED 70 TO 80 MPH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF NEWTON
1013 PM TSTM WND GST ELBING 38.05N 97.13W
08/05/2013 E65.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM TSTM WND GST WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.15W
08/05/2013 E65.00 MPH BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
DELAYED REPORT OF AN ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS WITH TREE
BRANCHES DOWN AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH WHITEWATER.
1025 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SE POTWIN 37.90N 96.96W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL
1026 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.17W
08/05/2013 M67.00 MPH HARVEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1028 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE INMAN 38.21N 97.72W
08/05/2013 M2.77 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER MEASURED 2.77 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR
1030 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF DOCKS TOSSED AROUND AND FLIPPED OVER AT THE
SHADY CREEK MARINA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
1035 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A CAMPER OVERTURNED AT CAMPGROUND WITH NO
REPORTS OF INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
1035 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N BENTON 37.89N 97.11W
08/05/2013 E70.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1042 PM TSTM WND GST EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 M61.00 MPH BUTLER KS BROADCAST MEDIA
MEASURED 61 MPH GUST AT EL DORADO HIGH SCHOOL
1046 PM TSTM WND GST N EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL
1046 PM TSTM WND DMG N EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN
1052 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N AUGUSTA 37.71N 96.98W
08/05/2013 E75.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1111 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N EL DORADO 37.92N 96.86W
08/05/2013 M2.00 INCH BUTLER KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
1111 PM HEAVY RAIN WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.15W
08/05/2013 M4.00 INCH BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
1113 PM TSTM WND DMG EUREKA 37.82N 96.29W
08/05/2013 GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
ONE 8 TO 10 INCH TREE DOWN WITH SEVERAL SMALLER TREES
BLOCKING ROADWAYS. TIME BASED ON RADAR
1129 PM TSTM WND DMG EUREKA 37.82N 96.29W
08/05/2013 GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE AND A CAR.
1132 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N BENTON 37.89N 97.11W
08/05/2013 M2.25 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1138 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N EUREKA 37.88N 96.29W
08/05/2013 E75.00 MPH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED 70-75MPH WIND GUSTS AT EUREKA
LAKE.
1158 PM TSTM WND DMG HOWARD 37.47N 96.26W
08/05/2013 ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE ROADS IN THE COUNTY.
&&
$$
BDK
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0746 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SSE WILLOWDALE 37.49N 98.29W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
0753 PM HAIL ESE ZENDA 37.44N 98.28W
08/05/2013 E0.88 INCH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED ROUGHLY A DOZEN NICKEL SIZE HAIL STONES
AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
0758 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E ZENDA 37.45N 98.23W
08/05/2013 KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THEIR POWER WAS OUT AND ESTIMATED
WINDS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
0910 PM TSTM WND GST CUNNINGHAM 37.64N 98.43W
08/05/2013 E70.00 MPH KINGMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
0941 PM TSTM WND GST WNW PENALOSA 37.72N 98.32W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH KINGMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS
0942 PM HEAVY RAIN NICKERSON 38.15N 98.09W
08/05/2013 U0.00 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
0947 PM HEAVY RAIN NICKERSON 38.15N 98.09W
08/05/2013 E1.15 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 96 IN NICKERSON
FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES WATER DEPTH
0954 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HESSTON 38.14N 97.46W
08/05/2013 E55.00 MPH HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.
1006 PM TSTM WND GST NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W
08/05/2013 E77.00 MPH HARVEY KS AWOS
DELAYED REPORT FROM THE NEWTON AIRPORT
1011 PM TSTM WND GST SW NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W
08/05/2013 E80.00 MPH HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
ESTIMATED 70 TO 80 MPH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF NEWTON
1013 PM TSTM WND GST ELBING 38.05N 97.13W
08/05/2013 E65.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM TSTM WND GST WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.15W
08/05/2013 E65.00 MPH BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
DELAYED REPORT OF AN ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS WITH TREE
BRANCHES DOWN AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH WHITEWATER.
1025 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SE POTWIN 37.90N 96.96W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL
1026 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.17W
08/05/2013 M67.00 MPH HARVEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1028 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE INMAN 38.21N 97.72W
08/05/2013 M2.77 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER MEASURED 2.77 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR
1030 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF DOCKS TOSSED AROUND AND FLIPPED OVER AT THE
SHADY CREEK MARINA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
1035 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A CAMPER OVERTURNED AT CAMPGROUND WITH NO
REPORTS OF INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
1035 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N BENTON 37.89N 97.11W
08/05/2013 E70.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1042 PM TSTM WND GST EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 M61.00 MPH BUTLER KS BROADCAST MEDIA
MEASURED 61 MPH GUST AT EL DORADO HIGH SCHOOL
1046 PM TSTM WND GST N EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 E60.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL
1046 PM TSTM WND DMG N EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN
1052 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N AUGUSTA 37.71N 96.98W
08/05/2013 E75.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1111 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N EL DORADO 37.92N 96.86W
08/05/2013 M2.00 INCH BUTLER KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
1111 PM HEAVY RAIN WHITEWATER 37.96N 97.15W
08/05/2013 M4.00 INCH BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
1113 PM TSTM WND DMG EUREKA 37.82N 96.29W
08/05/2013 GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
ONE 8 TO 10 INCH TREE DOWN WITH SEVERAL SMALLER TREES
BLOCKING ROADWAYS. TIME BASED ON RADAR
1129 PM TSTM WND DMG EUREKA 37.82N 96.29W
08/05/2013 GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE AND A CAR.
1132 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N BENTON 37.89N 97.11W
08/05/2013 M2.25 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER
1138 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N EUREKA 37.88N 96.29W
08/05/2013 E75.00 MPH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED 70-75MPH WIND GUSTS AT EUREKA
LAKE.
1158 PM TSTM WND DMG HOWARD 37.47N 96.26W
08/05/2013 ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ACROSS THE ROADS IN THE COUNTY.
&&
$$
BDK
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 470
WWUS20 KWNS 060603
SEL0
SPC WW 060603
SDZ000-WYZ000-060600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM MDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 470 ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA
WYOMING
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SEL0
SPC WW 060603
SDZ000-WYZ000-060600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM MDT TUE AUG 6 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 470 ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA
WYOMING
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KICT [060602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KICT 060602
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1035 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A CAMPER OVERTURNED AT CAMPGROUND WITH NO
REPORTS OF INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
&&
$$
BDK
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1035 PM TSTM WND DMG EL DORADO LAKE 37.86N 96.79W
08/05/2013 BUTLER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A CAMPER OVERTURNED AT CAMPGROUND WITH NO
REPORTS OF INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
&&
$$
BDK
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 060600
SWODY1
SPC AC 060558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES NORTHERN CA.
MEANWHILE...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED/SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...A BELT
OF SEASONALLY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
...UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF IA/PERHAPS
MN. PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION/TIMING...A
CONTINUATION/REINVIGORATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST
CLUSTER/S CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED DURING THE DAY INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-3500
J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF
ANY EARLY DAY MCS ACTIVITY...WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN
CONFIDENCE/QUANTITY OF DESTABILIZATION FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
FRONT/AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MN/NORTHERN WI. REGARDLESS...AIDED BY FRONTAL UPLIFT/FORCING FOR
ASCENT...SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/IA INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB. MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE NATURE OF THE FORCING
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/POTENTIAL
BOWS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH AN ACCENTUATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HERE...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS/MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS /INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS/
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET AIDED ASCENT INCREASES NEAR CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL
SEGMENTS.
...OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
MCV/ MAY PERSIST AND BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH. RENEWED
DIURNALLY-INTENSIFYING STORMS...AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SENSE...SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY WHERE STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. MULTICELLULAR
STORMS WITHIN AN APPRECIABLY UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A
THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS PULSE-TYPE HAIL.
..GUYER/ROGERS.. 08/06/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 060558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES NORTHERN CA.
MEANWHILE...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED/SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...A BELT
OF SEASONALLY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
...UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF IA/PERHAPS
MN. PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION/TIMING...A
CONTINUATION/REINVIGORATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST
CLUSTER/S CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED DURING THE DAY INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-3500
J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF
ANY EARLY DAY MCS ACTIVITY...WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN
CONFIDENCE/QUANTITY OF DESTABILIZATION FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
FRONT/AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MN/NORTHERN WI. REGARDLESS...AIDED BY FRONTAL UPLIFT/FORCING FOR
ASCENT...SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/IA INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB. MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE NATURE OF THE FORCING
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/POTENTIAL
BOWS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH AN ACCENTUATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HERE...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS/MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS /INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS/
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET AIDED ASCENT INCREASES NEAR CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL
SEGMENTS.
...OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
MCV/ MAY PERSIST AND BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH. RENEWED
DIURNALLY-INTENSIFYING STORMS...AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SENSE...SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY WHERE STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. MULTICELLULAR
STORMS WITHIN AN APPRECIABLY UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A
THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS PULSE-TYPE HAIL.
..GUYER/ROGERS.. 08/06/2013
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