MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1634

ACUS11 KWNS 060742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060742
NEZ000-SDZ000-060915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060742Z - 060915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SD WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE NEB-SD
BORDER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CURRENTLY
NEAR THE BADLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST PROFILER AT MERRIMAN NEB
SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. A FORWARD MOTION OF 40 KT SHOULD ENABLE
THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43020229 42750200 42520100 42210004 42079926 42179857
42409817 42719799 43149812 43489855 43729957 44050116
44070193 43780221 43530236 43020229

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