DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD INTO ONTARIO. FARTHER WEST...A NEAR STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW
WILL PERSIST OVER CA...WHILE A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHEARS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A FRONT SHOULD STALL
FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OK.

...KS/OK THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...

MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT THAT SHOULD
STALL FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND OK SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. MUCH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE
SFC-500 MB LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH AREAS OF STORMS
ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS KS INTO MO WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE NERN STATES. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONGOING STORMS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE A CATEGORICAL
AREA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 08/06/2013

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