MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 060724
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-061115-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 060710Z - 061115Z

SUMMARY...STRONG MCS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS GIVEN SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT HVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING STEADILY EWD THROUGH
ERN KS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ESP SRN PORTIONS OF MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE RECENT HVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY. CLOUD TOPS
TEMPS ASSOCD WITH THE MCS ARE AS COLD AS -80C AND THE LATEST IR
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE. MUCH OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS ASSOCD WITH A NOSE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS AIDED BY A SWLY 30 TO 40 KT LOW LVL JET EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
OVERRUNNING A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT. ENHANCED FORCING
ASSOCD WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE MCS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CHARACTER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE.

LATEST SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DYNAMICAL COMPONENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING MCV OVER
ERN KS IN BETWEEN KCNU AND KEMP. THIS DEVELOPING MCV WILL LIKELY
AID THE MESOSCALE FORCING OVER CNTRL/SRN MO WITH STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT VIA THE LOW LVL JET.
ALREADY SEEING SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF BANDED TYPE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS OVER S CNTRL MO NEAR KTBN.

EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDING INCLUDING
TRAINING CELLS OVER S CNTRL MO THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
MCS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ARRIVE IN TIME AND SUPPORT CELL MERGERS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
OVER S CNTRL MO INVOF OF TRAINING AND MERGING CELLS. EXTREMELY HVY
RAINFALL AMTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LOCALLY....AND THUS ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON 39159483 39019532 38609570 37969564 37579581 37249568
36979514 36869464 36639412 36459316 35749166 35469084
35499043 35599025 35858985 36438952 37218969 38079078
38709229 39049362 39159483

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