Monday, May 19, 2008

KFSD [200309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 200309
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1009 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S SHELDON 43.13N 95.86W
05/19/2008 O'BRIEN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

HALF OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOG CONFINEMENT. DEBRIS WAS
SPREAD UP TO ONE HALF MILE DOWNWIND.

0455 PM TSTM WND GST SHELDON 43.18N 95.84W
05/19/2008 M63.00 MPH O'BRIEN IA AWOS

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW ROYAL 43.02N 95.37W
05/19/2008 E60.00 MPH CLAY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF FLYING DIRT

0535 PM TSTM WND GST STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W
05/19/2008 M62.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA AWOS

0540 PM TSTM WND GST TRUESDALE 42.73N 95.18W
05/19/2008 E60.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG S NEWELL 42.60N 95.00W
05/19/2008 BUENA VISTA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON FENCE


&&

$$

PS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200057
SWODY1
SPC AC 200054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH/TN VALLEYS...

SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KY
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY INTO WV BY 20/12Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0030Z FROM SERN IL EWD ALONG THE OH
RIVER INTO WRN WV...DRIVEN LARGELY BY STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF SWLY
LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.

00Z LZK SOUNDING IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT REPRESENTATIVE OF SOURCE REGION
OF AIR MASS BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED ALONG LLJ AXIS. INDEED...
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH
THEIR LFC. THIS OBSERVATION IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE IN WHICH ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED AND FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND N OF
SURFACE FRONT. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT AND WARM EML WILL
RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES REMAINING
BELOW 500-700 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD BEARING
SHEAR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SWRN KS...

AN ISOLATED STORM IS IN PROGRESS AS OF 0045Z JUST S OF GCK WITHIN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG /PER
00Z DDC SOUNDING/. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK REMAINS
QUITE WARM THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR...THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2008

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KGID [200032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 200032
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
731 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E CAMPBELL 40.30N 98.71W
05/19/2008 M56.00 MPH WEBSTER NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF ROADS SITE AT MILE POST 49.7


&&

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0949

ACUS11 KWNS 192321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192321
IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192321Z - 200015Z

FAST-MOVING SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRIOR TO ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
GIVEN THE SHORT-DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...A
WW DOES NOT APPEAR PRUDENT.

RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD IN NWRN IA/FAR SWRN MN WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND
GUSTS RECENTLY RECORDED BY AWOS/RWIS SITES. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO FORCED ASCENT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR FOD. THE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED LOCALIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG NWLY WINDS PUSHING SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AS
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE NOT AS LARGE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.

..GRAMS.. 05/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

42369251 41509215 40629237 40509337 41119448 42069568
42809601 43339590 43749536 43559437 43059330

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KBOX [192319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 192319
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
718 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MARBLEHEAD 42.48N 70.87W
05/19/2008 M46 MPH ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

ALSO AT THE SAME TIME...TREE DOWNED ON HOUSE IN DANVERS.


&&

$$

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KFSD [192312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 192312
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG S NEWELL 42.60N 95.00W
05/19/2008 BUENA VISTA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON FENCE


&&

$$

BT

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KFSD [192256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 192256
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S SHELDON 43.13N 95.86W
05/19/2008 O'BRIEN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

HALF OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOG CONFINEMENT. DEBRIS WAS
SPREAD UP TO ONE HALF MILE DOWNWIND.

0455 PM TSTM WND GST SHELDON 43.18N 95.84W
05/19/2008 M63.00 MPH O'BRIEN IA AWOS

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW ROYAL 43.02N 95.37W
05/19/2008 E60.00 MPH CLAY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF FLYING DIRT

0535 PM TSTM WND GST STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W
05/19/2008 M62.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA AWOS

0540 PM TSTM WND GST TRUESDALE 42.73N 95.18W
05/19/2008 E60.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

BT

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KBIS [192149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 192149
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
448 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM HIGH SUST WINDS GARRISON 47.65N 101.42W
05/19/2008 M47 MPH MCLEAN ND ASOS


&&

$$

VJR/CJS

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KBIS [192142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 192142
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
442 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BISMARCK 46.81N 100.77W
05/19/2008 M40.00 MPH BURLEIGH ND ASOS


&&

$$

VJR/CJS

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KFFC [192023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 192023
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE STATHAM 34.03N 83.56W
05/11/2008 E40.00 MPH BARROW GA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** A MAN ON JONES ROAD IN NORTHEAST BARROW
COUNTY WAS KILLED WHEN STRONG WINDS CAUSED A TREE TO FALL
ON HIM WHILE OUTSIDE.


&&

$$

RAB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191950
SWODY1
SPC AC 191948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING SWD INTO NERN SD WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CORN
BELT THIS EVENING. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
MAY GROW STRONGER AS THEY APPROACH AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE. LARGELY NW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME
AND INVERTED-V TYPE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO APPROACH SVR LIMITS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...LWR OH VLY...
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN ERROR WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS THIS AFTN...MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE
BEEN NOTED VIA METEOGRAMS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/SRN
PLAINS. AS SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO TRACKS TOWARD THE LWR OH
VLY...CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN A WSWLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER INTO KY/TN LATER
TODAY. WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF 8C/KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES THE ONLY LIMIT ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUS...ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

...HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN NWLY FLOW CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...MLCAPES SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN
300 J/KG.

..RACY.. 05/19/2008

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KKEY [191859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 191859
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM WATER SPOUT 7 N MARATHON 24.81N 81.08W
05/19/2008 GMZ031 FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MONROE COUNTY FIRE AND RESCUE PERSONNEL REPORTED TWO
WATERSPOUTS IN A CLOUD LINE NORTH OF MARATHON. MOVEMENT
AND DURATION UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

KASPER

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KMRX [191807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 191807
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
207 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW MOSHEIM 36.17N 82.98W
05/18/2008 GREENE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON SHEFFY HOLLOW RD. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 NE PIKEVILLE 35.70N 85.08W
05/18/2008 BLEDSOE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES ON MILLER RD. REPORTED BY
DISPATCH.

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSW DAYTON 35.41N 85.05W
05/18/2008 HAMILTON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.


&&

$$

GRC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191725
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WWD
INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP S...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON TUESDAY AS THE NPAC
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN STATES AND LARGE ERN CANADA VORTEX DEEPENS
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG RIDGE WILL
EXIST...CENTERED OVER THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
AND INTO THE GRT BASIN AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH....WITH A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS
FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND THE GULF CST
STATES THROUGH THE PD.

...CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE DEEP S...
MID-LVL WAVE RIDING ALONG THE SRN RIM OF THE ERN CANADA VORTEX WILL
TRAVEL FROM THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE SRN MID-ATLC CST AND CAROLINAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTN...THEN OFF THE CST LATER IN THE DAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG SWLY LLJ TIED TO THE
IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD AND OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLC CST AS THE IMPULSE EJECTS OUT TO SEA.

MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SETTLE S AND
E INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...GA AND AL DURING PEAK HEATING. BY
THEN...VEERED WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/S
OF THE FRONT AND HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS AMIDST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS REGION
WILL SIT AMIDST 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW...RESULTING IN A
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR REGIME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN ROCKIES...
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.75-1 INCH WILL SURGE NEWD AHEAD
OF THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE REGION
DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM NRN NV NEWD INTO PARTS OF ID
AND WRN MT. DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELD WILL STRONGLY BACK WITH
TIME...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ORGANIZED FAST
MOVING AND HIGHER-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS HAIL. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK SHOULD THE INSTABILITY FIELDS BECOME STRONGER
THAN FCST.

...HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INVOF LEE
TROUGH...AIDED IN SOME AREAS BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD.

WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODEST NWLYS ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LVL SELYS COMBINED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..RACY.. 05/19/2008

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KFFC [191643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 191643
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WINDER 33.99N 83.72W
05/11/2008 E40.00 MPH BARROW GA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** A MAN WAS KILLED WHEN STRONG WINDS CAUSED
A TREE TO FALL ON HIM WHILE OUTSIDE.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAWRENCEVILLE 33.95N 83.99W
05/11/2008 E40.00 MPH GWINNETT GA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** A FEMALE WAS KILLED WHEN STRONG WINDS
CAUSED A TREE TO FALL ON HER WHILE OUTSIDE.


&&

$$

RAB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191624
SWODY1
SPC AC 191620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL U.S...

NWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. BETWEEN COLD SERN CANADA VORTEX
AND STRONG WESTERN RIDGE. PROVIDED THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
THIS PATTERN WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MONTH OF MAY. HOWEVER GULF INFLOW IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NWRN MO IS MEAGER. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD
AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
FROM LOWER MO TO TN VALLEYS TODAY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ALL THE
MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 60F FORECASTED INTO SRN
MO/NRN AR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS OUTLOOK HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED SEVERE SCENARIO
WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT TODAY GIVEN THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW NWRN MO TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
40-50KT LOW LEVEL WSWLY JET WILL PROVIDE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER INTO KY/TN LATER TODAY. WITH
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF 8C/KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES THE ONLY LIMIT ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
RESULTS IN GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NOW EXPECTED...AN UPGRADE
TO A SEVERE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN AFTERNOON UPDATE. HOWEVER IF
MLCAPES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG AS NOW EXPECTED THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH BEST AREA INTO TN VALLEY THIS
EVENING WHERE STRONG ASCENT WOULD BE LOCATED.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TWO OTHER CENTRAL U.S. MARGINALLY SEVERE
THREATS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED VEE SOUNDINGS IN NWLY FLOW CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER AGAIN MLCAPES SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN
300 J/KG.

ANOTHER AREA OF A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND 80KT JET MAX THAT IS DIVING SEWD THRU ERN
DAKOTAS. AGAIN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD CONFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO A FEW LOW TOPPED UPDRAFTS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 05/19/2008

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KGYX [191606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 191606
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1206 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HAIL PITTSFIELD 44.77N 69.38W
05/19/2008 E0.75 INCH SOMERSET ME EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

MC

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KGYX [191533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 191533
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM HAIL WATERVILLE 44.55N 69.66W
05/19/2008 E0.25 INCH KENNEBEC ME TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM HAIL FAIRFIELD 44.59N 69.60W
05/19/2008 E0.25 INCH SOMERSET ME TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MC

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KFFC [191249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 191249
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
849 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 AM TORNADO 7 NW DUBLIN 32.61N 83.01W
05/11/2008 F2 LAURENS GA NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 2 FATAL, 2 INJ *** EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED TOUCHDOWN IN
THE 2700 BLOCK OF U.S. HIGHWAY 441...ABOUT THREE MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DUBLIN...WHERE A DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME WAS
DESTROYED. AN EARLY 50S MALE AND HIS WIFE WERE KILLED.
TWO CHILDREN SUFFERED NON-LIFE THREATENING INJURIES.
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY...MOSTLY FROM STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OR EF0 TO EF1
TORNADO.


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191225
SWODY1
SPC AC 191223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ALONG BACKSIDE OF
PRONOUNCED UPPER VORTEX OVER ONTARIO/NERN U.S. WILL OVERSPREAD THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN MOVING SURFACE LOW AND
STRENGTHENING WSWLY LLJ...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...QUICKLY EWD
TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS BY THE EARLY EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THIS LOW ENEWD INTO NERN
KY WHICH WILL HANGUP ON THE ERN END OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS
ARE QUITE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS OVER
DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MIXING SHOULD INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF KY/TN THROUGH THE
EVENING...AIDED BY VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. REGION WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE STORMS AND MEAGER FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED ROBUST UPDRAFT OR TWO OVER THIS REGION.
ATTM...EXPECT CAP WILL LIMIT/INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND LIMIT
WWD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL
THREAT /LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES/ WWD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR.

...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF MID LEVEL COLD POCKET AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD INTO ERN
ND. WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /SBCAPES AOB
300 J PER KG/...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SE-NW OVER THE REGION AS HEATING/DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS WEAK INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY
INDICATE LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG NWLY SHEAR...FAVORING A RISK OF STRONG
GUSTS/HAIL AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY SSEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 191015
SWODY1
SPC AC 191012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/ WHICH WILL INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD
ACROSS OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER IMPULSE WILL PRECEED
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN KS AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM
FRONT INTO SERN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD ACROSS KY INTO
VA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE EWD ADVECTION OF
WARM EML AIR MASS INTO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH THE EML
PLUME WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO OZARK
PLATEAU. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG...LIKELY INHIBITING SURFACE-BASED...DIURNAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 20/00-03Z
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER AS
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KY/TN TONIGHT.

UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO: 1) WHETHER ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT...AND 2) HOW FAR W/SW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU. AS A RESULT...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THIS FORECAST. SHOULD LATER DATA INDICATE A HIGHER LIKLIHOOD OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY HAVE TO BE
REINTRODUCED.

...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
/SBCAPES AOB 300 J PER KG/...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190900
SWOD48
SPC AC 190859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE/OMEGA-BLOCK-TYPE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO LINGER
OVER THE WEST UPSTREAM OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5-6. WHILE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN -- WHICH COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS DAY 7 -- SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS APPARENT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS DAYS 4-6.

A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAY 4 ACROSS
THE PLAINS...THOUGH STRONG RIDGE -- AND THUS SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING --
SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SUPPRESSED WWD NEAR A HIGH PLAINS
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR
ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS EVIDENT. WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER E THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH AGREE THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE WITHIN A ROUGHLY
200 MILE-WIDE AREA CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPAND THE AREA SWD THIS FORECAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF
NM AND W TX.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0948

ACUS11 KWNS 190859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190859
FLZ000-191100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190859Z - 191100Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL MAY POSE A
MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL FL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASING WAA /NOTED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS/
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND
INTO CENTRAL FL /JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA/. MODERATE MID
LEVEL WINDS /40 KTS/ PER THE 00Z TPA AND RECENT TPA VWP DATA SUPPORT
RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATING SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
50 KTS/ MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY TSTM
THAT HAS SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TEND TO
MINIMIZE THE SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27898042 27688205 27298273 27048273 26858245 26668177
26828071 27598018

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190733
SWODY3
SPC AC 190731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SWD
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
THE NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...A CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AHEAD OF THE DIGGING WRN TROUGH...AS
THE ERN NOAM VORTEX MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN WY/ERN
CO VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING WRN
TROUGH. A STRONGLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED S OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS/OK AND ON INTO THE
GUST COAST STATES.

...ERN WY/SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE...
WHILE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND E OF
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN WY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN KS/THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. WHILE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO MT/ND...A NARROW ZONE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
STRONGER CELLS IS FORECAST INVOF ERN WY.

ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS...STRONGLY-VEERING FLOW -- FROM ESELY AT LOW LEVELS TO MORE
SLY ALOFT -- WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE STORMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2008

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KRNK [190620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KRNK 190620
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 AM HAIL BLUEFIELD 37.27N 81.22W
05/19/2008 E0.50 INCH MERCER WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MATTAROCHIA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190601
SWODY2
SPC AC 190559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO
AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE VORTEX REMAINS OVER ERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST UPSTREAM
OF THE ERN TROUGH...AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES
WILL BE FORCED TO DIG SSEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN BETWEEN...A
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WELL...REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH...WITH A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF GA/AL...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF
THE CAROLINA/VA COAST...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD WITHIN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA/AL/MS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS EXPECTED S OF THE
FRONT...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WHILE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THUS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA -- NONETHELESS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
HAIL.

WHILE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION.

...SRN AND WRN MT/SRN ID...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...STRONG UVV SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED STORMS.

WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ATOP A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA.

...PARTS OF WY SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INVOF LEE TROUGH...AIDED IN SOME AREAS BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND FIELD.

WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODEST NWLYS ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS A
LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190556
SWODY1
SPC AC 190553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/ WHICH WILL INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD
ACROSS OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER IMPULSE WILL PRECEED
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN KS AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM
FRONT INTO SERN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD ACROSS KY INTO
VA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE EWD ADVECTION OF
WARM EML AIR MASS INTO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH THE EML
PLUME WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO OZARK
PLATEAU. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG...LIKELY INHIBITING SURFACE-BASED...DIURNAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 20/00-03Z
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER AS
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KY/TN TONIGHT.

UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO: 1) WHETHER ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT...AND 2) HOW FAR W/SW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU. AS A RESULT...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THIS FORECAST. SHOULD LATER DATA INDICATE A HIGHER LIKLIHOOD OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY HAVE TO BE
REINTRODUCED.

...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
/SBCAPES AOB 300 J PER KG/...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2008

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KRNK [190429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 190429
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 AM HAIL BLUEFIELD 37.27N 81.22W
05/19/2008 E0.75 INCH MERCER WV PUBLIC


&&

$$

MATTAROCHIA

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KRNK [190419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 190419
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1219 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 AM HAIL BLUEFIELD 37.24N 81.27W
05/19/2008 E0.50 INCH TAZEWELL VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MATTAROCHIA

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