SWODY1
SPC AC 191948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING SWD INTO NERN SD WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CORN
BELT THIS EVENING. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
MAY GROW STRONGER AS THEY APPROACH AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE. LARGELY NW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME
AND INVERTED-V TYPE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO APPROACH SVR LIMITS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
...LWR OH VLY...
ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN ERROR WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS THIS AFTN...MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE
BEEN NOTED VIA METEOGRAMS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/SRN
PLAINS. AS SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO TRACKS TOWARD THE LWR OH
VLY...CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN A WSWLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER INTO KY/TN LATER
TODAY. WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF 8C/KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES THE ONLY LIMIT ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUS...ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
...HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN NWLY FLOW CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...MLCAPES SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN
300 J/KG.
..RACY.. 05/19/2008
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