Saturday, November 17, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180449
SWODY1
SPC AC 180447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ACROSS NWRN
MEXICO/SWRN CONUS ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IN
THE TRANS-PECOS OF FAR W TX.

..GRAMS.. 11/18/2012

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KMFR [180404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180404
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
804 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE COOS BAY 43.35N 124.09W
11/17/2012 M1.44 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8PM FRIDAY THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY LOCAL TIME. LOCATION NEAR
THE COOS RIVER.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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KSTO [180248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 180248
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
647 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN PACIFIC HOUSE 38.76N 120.50W
11/17/2012 M1.01 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 9 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [180245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 180245
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
644 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE MILLVILLE 40.54N 122.14W
11/17/2012 E1.00 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR STREET AND HIGHWAY FLOODING (STANDING
WATER) ON HIGHWAY 44. RAINFALL OF 1/2 INCH
TO 1 INCH IN PAST HOUR. HEAVY RAIN DURATION
1 HOUR

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMFR [180112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180112
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.05N 123.71W
11/17/2012 M1.14 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOME RASN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KMFR [180110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180110
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.34W
11/17/2012 M2.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROX 24HRS


&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KHNX [180057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 180057
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
457 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 2 S MADERA 36.94N 120.08W
11/17/2012 E0.25 INCH MADERA CA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180040
SWODY1
SPC AC 180038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A FEW TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY/ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NV
MTNS OF CA SHOULD END SHORTLY. ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST...MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AMIDST MEAGER BUOYANCY THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE S ATLANTIC COAST.

..GRAMS.. 11/18/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171936
SWODY1
SPC AC 171934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WEST AND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NEAR
AND JUST OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE THUNDER AREAS ARE BEING IMPLEMENTED THIS
FORECAST...WITH THUNDER SPREADING PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS NERN FL THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
A THUNDER AREA HERE...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 11/17/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM THE
FL EAST COASTAL WATERS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER IMPULSE
PROVIDES DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE/WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CNTRL CA WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
IMPULSE AS WELL BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

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KHNX [171904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 171904
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1104 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW TENAYA LAKE 37.84N 119.45W
11/17/2012 E9.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 8150 FT.

1000 AM SNOW KAISER POINT 37.30N 119.10W
11/17/2012 E10.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 9200 FT.

1000 AM SNOW MITCHELL MEADOW 36.74N 118.71W
11/17/2012 E4.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 9900 FT.

1000 AM SNOW VOLCANIC KNOB 37.39N 118.90W
11/17/2012 E5.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 10050 FT.

1000 AM SNOW CHARLOTTE LAKE 36.80N 118.42W
11/17/2012 E6.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 10400 FT.

1000 AM SNOW BISHOP PASS 37.10N 118.56W
11/17/2012 E7.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 11200 FT.

1000 AM SNOW BIG MEADOWS 36.72N 118.84W
11/17/2012 E3.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 7600 FT.

1000 AM SNOW BEACH MEADOWS 36.13N 118.29W
11/17/2012 E2.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

48 STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 7650 FT.

1000 AM SNOW TUNNEL GUARD STATION 36.37N 118.29W
11/17/2012 E3.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 8900 FT.

1000 AM SNOW CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 36.50N 118.44W
11/17/2012 E3.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 10300 FT.

1000 AM SNOW UPPER TYNDALL CREEK 36.65N 118.40W
11/17/2012 E4.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

48 HR STORM TOTAL. SNOTEL ELEV. 11400 FT.


&&

$$

MBIN

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KSTO [171812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171812
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1011 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE QUINCY 39.93N 120.89W
11/17/2012 M1.75 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171812
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1011 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW INWOOD 40.51N 122.00W
11/17/2012 M2.21 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171811
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1011 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E QUINCY 39.92N 120.90W
11/17/2012 M1.15 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171811
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1010 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE PARADISE 39.77N 121.58W
11/17/2012 M2.00 INCH BUTTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171811
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1010 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE MILLVILLE 40.54N 122.14W
11/17/2012 M1.52 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 8 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171810
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1009 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN PACIFIC HOUSE 38.76N 120.50W
11/17/2012 M0.44 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171810
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1009 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW SIMS 41.06N 122.36W
11/17/2012 M1.45 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171809
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW REDDING 40.58N 122.38W
11/17/2012 M1.67 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171809
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE RANCHO CORDOVA 38.58N 121.28W
11/17/2012 M0.37 INCH SACRAMENTO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [171808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171808
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1007 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW CHICO 39.73N 121.84W
11/17/2012 M0.68 INCH BUTTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KJAX [171719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171719
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1218 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
11/17/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 6.86 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
MAYPORT TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +1.00 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS WHEN
THE TIDE LEVELS REACH 6.40 FT MLLW AT MAYPORT.

1148 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
11/17/2012 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.75 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
FERNANDINA BEACH TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.95 FT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY
BEGINS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 8.5 FT MLLW AT FERNANDINA
BEACH.


&&

$$

SHULER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171718
SWODY2
SPC AC 171717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF AK THIS
PERIOD...WHILE A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO WRN
CANADA AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER/WEAK
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS THUS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS THE SERN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES MAY AFFECT ERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE SERN U.S.
COASTAL AREAS. MOST LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE HOWEVER --
WITH LESS THAN 10% ONSHORE COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING/WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE.

AS LEE TROUGHING EVOLVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO WLY
FLOW...WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WLYS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT QG ASCENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES -- PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASE FURTHER ENHANCING QG ASCENT.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS APPARENT ACROSS A RANGE OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ASIDE FROM THE MORE BULLISH NAM-BASED
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE -- WHILE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST --
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO EXCEED 10% ACROSS THIS BROAD
AREA APPEARS LOW ATTM...AND THUS WILL REMOVE AREAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 11/17/2012

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KCHS [171651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171651
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1151 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/17/2012 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

TIDE GAUGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR PEAKED AT 7.7 FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AT THIS TIME
IS 1.04 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200835

$$

RJB

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KCHS [171648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171648
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1148 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1112 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN 32.03N 80.90W
11/17/2012 CHATHAM GA TIDE GAGE

FORT PULASKI TIDE GAUGE PEAKED AT 9.53 FEET MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER. THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AT THIS TIME WAS
1.19 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200834

$$

RJB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171555
SWODY1
SPC AC 171554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM THE
FL EAST COASTAL WATERS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER IMPULSE
PROVIDES DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE/WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CNTRL CA WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
IMPULSE AS WELL BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2012

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KMFR [171514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171514
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
714 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2012 M2.27 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [171508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171508
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
708 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
11/17/2012 M1.30 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KJAX [171444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171444
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0809 AM TSTM WND GST 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
11/17/2012 M45 MPH AMZ472 XX BUOY

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 45 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE
BUOY LOCATED 45 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF ST AUGUSTINE.


&&

$$

SHULER

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KMFL [171338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 171338
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
838 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SE POMPANO BEACH 26.18N 80.06W
11/17/2012 AMZ651 FL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BRABANDER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EWD DURING THE PERIOD.
THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. FARTHER W...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW BY
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ORE/WA COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A MINOR UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
FROM CA THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY EARLY NIGHT.
MOISTENING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
NRN UT INTO NWRN NM THIS EVENING.

..GARNER/MEAD.. 11/17/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170745
SWODY3
SPC AC 170744

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT PATTERN OVER CONUS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND TO TEMPORARILY BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD. MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PAC NW...WHERE STRENGTHENING HEIGHT GRADIENT
AND SWLYS ALOFT ARE PROGGED...AS MAJOR GULF OF AK CYCLONE SHIFTS SWD
ACROSS NERN PAC. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
VORTICITY BANNER...RELATED TO SPEED MAX NOW OVER BERING SEA...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE WA/ORE DURING 19/21Z-20/06Z TIME FRAME.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION ALOFT
-- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BECOMING DIFFUSE AND HARD TO DISTINGUISH FROM AMBIENT LEE
TROUGHING REGIME OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP
BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM NW OK SWWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN REGION.

...SW OK TO SW TX...
CONTINUING LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR BLEND OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THIS
REGION...INCLUDING SOME DIURNALLY-AIDED/SFC-BASED CONVECTION DURING
MIDDAY TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ALONG/E OF DRYLINE. THIS AREA
ALSO WILL LIE ON SRN FRINGE OF LEE TROUGHING...AND WRN FRINGE OF
INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED RETURN-FLOW AIR MASS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS 50S
F. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE
RATES/BUOYANCY ALOFT...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL FORCING.

...COASTAL PAC NW...
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BAND PRECEDING MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCED LIFT. THIS REGIME...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
POSTFRONTAL/MIDLEVEL COOLING ABOVE MARINE LAYER...WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/EPISODIC TSTMS INVOF COAST.

..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170556
SWODY2
SPC AC 170555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS MOST
OF CONUS DAY-2. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE PAC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE DAY-1 THEN
EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM PARTS OF CANADA DAY-2.
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS PERTURBATION THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD...AMIDST GEN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD RELATED TO LARGE/PERSISTENT
GULF OF AK VORTEX.

BROAD/WEAK MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN CONUS DAY-1
FROM TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL GULF. CENTER OF CYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
NERN FL/GA COAST EARLY IN PERIOD...INDUCING FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER GULF STREAM E JAX. SOME TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
CAROLINAS...ALONG AND N OF SFC QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD
FROM LOW...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ASHORE APPEARS
TOO LOW/CONDITIONAL FOR TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MO VALLEY...
MRGL TSTM BROAD FETCH OF SWLY-WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE
MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER THIS REGION THROUGHOUT PERIOD...WITH VERY
WEAK/EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS. LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM WRN SD
SWD ACROSS TS/NM BORDER REGION BY 19/00Z...WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME TO ITS E. SFC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER INCREASING
RH IS FCST ABOVE SFC -- GENERALLY IN 700-850 MB LAYER -- ALONG WITH
AREAS OF BOTH STRATIFORM AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP MOVING NEWD. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
EPISODIC/ISOLATED THUNDER...WITH AROUND 100-250 J/KG MLCAPE AND SOME
BUOYANCY OCCASIONALLY REACHING INTO -20 DEG C AND COLDER THERMAL
ZONE.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SRN PLAINS AND AFTER
DARK OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...LATTER BEING ASSOCIATED WITH MRGL
MOISTURE AND 35-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. SOME SPATIAL/TEMPORAL SEPARATION
MAY OCCUR BETWEEN EACH REGIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/WIDTH OF
ANY RELATIVE MIN IS TOO LOW TO CARVE TWO DISTINCT TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS
ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2012

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