DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170556
SWODY2
SPC AC 170555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS MOST
OF CONUS DAY-2. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE PAC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE DAY-1 THEN
EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM PARTS OF CANADA DAY-2.
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS PERTURBATION THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD...AMIDST GEN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD RELATED TO LARGE/PERSISTENT
GULF OF AK VORTEX.

BROAD/WEAK MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN CONUS DAY-1
FROM TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL GULF. CENTER OF CYCLONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
NERN FL/GA COAST EARLY IN PERIOD...INDUCING FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER GULF STREAM E JAX. SOME TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
CAROLINAS...ALONG AND N OF SFC QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD
FROM LOW...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ASHORE APPEARS
TOO LOW/CONDITIONAL FOR TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MO VALLEY...
MRGL TSTM BROAD FETCH OF SWLY-WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE
MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER THIS REGION THROUGHOUT PERIOD...WITH VERY
WEAK/EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS. LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM WRN SD
SWD ACROSS TS/NM BORDER REGION BY 19/00Z...WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME TO ITS E. SFC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER INCREASING
RH IS FCST ABOVE SFC -- GENERALLY IN 700-850 MB LAYER -- ALONG WITH
AREAS OF BOTH STRATIFORM AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP MOVING NEWD. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
EPISODIC/ISOLATED THUNDER...WITH AROUND 100-250 J/KG MLCAPE AND SOME
BUOYANCY OCCASIONALLY REACHING INTO -20 DEG C AND COLDER THERMAL
ZONE.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SRN PLAINS AND AFTER
DARK OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...LATTER BEING ASSOCIATED WITH MRGL
MOISTURE AND 35-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. SOME SPATIAL/TEMPORAL SEPARATION
MAY OCCUR BETWEEN EACH REGIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/WIDTH OF
ANY RELATIVE MIN IS TOO LOW TO CARVE TWO DISTINCT TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS
ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2012

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