NWUS53 KARX 201904
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0202 PM HAIL GAD 45.12N 90.20W
05/20/2012 M0.75 INCH TAYLOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
KGRB [201903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 201903
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0155 PM HAIL 5 N HEAFFORD JUNCTION 45.61N 89.71W
05/20/2012 M0.75 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PATH
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0155 PM HAIL 5 N HEAFFORD JUNCTION 45.61N 89.71W
05/20/2012 M0.75 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PATH
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201855
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0108 PM HAIL 3 W BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.56W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0108 PM HAIL 3 W BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.56W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KGRB [201852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 201852
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0148 PM HAIL LAC DU FLAMBEAU 45.96N 89.88W
05/20/2012 E1.75 INCH VILAS WI 911 CALL CENTER
&&
$$
TERIE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0148 PM HAIL LAC DU FLAMBEAU 45.96N 89.88W
05/20/2012 E1.75 INCH VILAS WI 911 CALL CENTER
&&
$$
TERIE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201847
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W WILLARD 44.73N 90.82W
05/20/2012 E45 MPH CLARK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W WILLARD 44.73N 90.82W
05/20/2012 E45 MPH CLARK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201847
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
146 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0139 PM HAIL 3 E JUMP RIVER 45.36N 90.74W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
A LOT OF PENNY TO NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL STONES...ALONG
WITH A FEW QUARTER SIZE.
&&
$$
AJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
146 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0139 PM HAIL 3 E JUMP RIVER 45.36N 90.74W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
A LOT OF PENNY TO NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL STONES...ALONG
WITH A FEW QUARTER SIZE.
&&
$$
AJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201837
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 PM HAIL 1 N JUMP RIVER 45.37N 90.80W
05/20/2012 E0.25 INCH TAYLOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
HAIL LASTED ABOUT 2 MINUTES.
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 PM HAIL 1 N JUMP RIVER 45.37N 90.80W
05/20/2012 E0.25 INCH TAYLOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
HAIL LASTED ABOUT 2 MINUTES.
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201837
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0116 PM HAIL 15 E PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.09W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0116 PM HAIL 15 E PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.09W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KGRB [201836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 201836
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
136 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0125 PM HAIL 1 E SPIRIT FALLS 45.45N 89.96W
05/20/2012 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN WI CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA TO NICKLE SIZE
&&
$$
TERIE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
136 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0125 PM HAIL 1 E SPIRIT FALLS 45.45N 89.96W
05/20/2012 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN WI CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA TO NICKLE SIZE
&&
$$
TERIE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201835
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0122 PM HAIL 3 N HANNIBAL 45.29N 90.78W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI PUBLIC
HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES AND COVERED THE GROUND.
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0122 PM HAIL 3 N HANNIBAL 45.29N 90.78W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI PUBLIC
HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES AND COVERED THE GROUND.
&&
$$
ADAMS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0851
ACUS11 KWNS 201833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201833
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NERN AR...SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201833Z - 202000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED STORM ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD OUT OF SRN WI INTO CNTRL MO AND ERN OK. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. THE STRONG
HEATING IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LATEST WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT LOBE ENTERING SWRN MO AND
NWRN AR. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SRN MO/NRN AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH SIMILAR
TREND OCCURRING FARTHER E OVER SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN SOON AFTER.
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK /EFFECTIVE BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE AOB 20 KT/...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE VORT LOBE
RESIDING WITHIN BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY ENHANCE EWD MOTION OF
STORMS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
THREAT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SCENARIO.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35149187 36519226 37829206 39239051 38758867 37588801
36378818 35048978 35149187
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201833
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NERN AR...SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201833Z - 202000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED STORM ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD OUT OF SRN WI INTO CNTRL MO AND ERN OK. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. THE STRONG
HEATING IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LATEST WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT LOBE ENTERING SWRN MO AND
NWRN AR. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SRN MO/NRN AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH SIMILAR
TREND OCCURRING FARTHER E OVER SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN SOON AFTER.
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK /EFFECTIVE BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE AOB 20 KT/...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE VORT LOBE
RESIDING WITHIN BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY ENHANCE EWD MOTION OF
STORMS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
THREAT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SCENARIO.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35149187 36519226 37829206 39239051 38758867 37588801
36378818 35048978 35149187
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201825
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0108 PM HAIL PRENTICE 45.54N 90.29W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0108 PM HAIL PRENTICE 45.54N 90.29W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201820
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM HAIL 2 E HOUGHTON 47.12N 88.51W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM HAIL 2 E HOUGHTON 47.12N 88.51W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0850
ACUS11 KWNS 201817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201817
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-202015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI THROUGH NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201817Z - 202015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN WI INTO PARTS OF
NWRN IL BY 20Z. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ONCE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.
DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN WI...ERN
IA INTO NERN MO WITH WEAK PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS INDICATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES ABOVE UPPER
50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. PRE-FRONTAL NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED
TO SSWLY TO THE SOUTH OF A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. THESE FACTORS
MAKE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WHERE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ATTENDING THE EJECTING IMPULSE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 43608819 42808789 41928772 41158759 40068903 39549085
40469091 42669002 43678933 43608819
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201817
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-202015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI THROUGH NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201817Z - 202015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN WI INTO PARTS OF
NWRN IL BY 20Z. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ONCE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.
DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN WI...ERN
IA INTO NERN MO WITH WEAK PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS INDICATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES ABOVE UPPER
50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. PRE-FRONTAL NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED
TO SSWLY TO THE SOUTH OF A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. THESE FACTORS
MAKE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WHERE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ATTENDING THE EJECTING IMPULSE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 43608819 42808789 41928772 41158759 40068903 39549085
40469091 42669002 43678933 43608819
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMPX [201804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KMPX 201804
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL 4 NNE CORNELL 45.22N 91.12W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CARLYON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL 4 NNE CORNELL 45.22N 91.12W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CARLYON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMPX [201802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 201802
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL NNE CORNELL 45.16N 91.15W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CARLYON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL NNE CORNELL 45.16N 91.15W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CARLYON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201801
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM HAIL 4 E STETSONVILLE 45.08N 90.23W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI PUBLIC
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM HAIL 4 E STETSONVILLE 45.08N 90.23W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR WI PUBLIC
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201757
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0117 PM HAIL 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0117 PM HAIL 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KARX 201757
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1239 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ABBOTSFORD 44.93N 90.32W
05/20/2012 CLARK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1239 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ABBOTSFORD 44.93N 90.32W
05/20/2012 CLARK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201755
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM HAIL CALUMET 47.25N 88.45W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM HAIL CALUMET 47.25N 88.45W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201753
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HAIL 1 NE MELLEN 46.33N 90.65W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HAIL 1 NE MELLEN 46.33N 90.65W
05/20/2012 M1.00 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201750
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0132 PM HAIL MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.40W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE
HALF TO 5/8 INCH HAIL.
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0132 PM HAIL MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.40W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE
HALF TO 5/8 INCH HAIL.
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201748
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0134 PM HAIL 3 NE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.51W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER
MEASURED NEAR DOLLAR BAY.
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0134 PM HAIL 3 NE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.51W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER
MEASURED NEAR DOLLAR BAY.
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KMQT 201745
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM HAIL 3 ENE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.50W
05/20/2012 M0.75 INCH HOUGHTON MI EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM HAIL 3 ENE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.50W
05/20/2012 M0.75 INCH HOUGHTON MI EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201744
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0139 PM HAIL IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED 5 MINUTES.
0130 PM HAIL 3 ENE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.50W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH HOUGHTON MI EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0139 PM HAIL IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
05/20/2012 M0.88 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED 5 MINUTES.
0130 PM HAIL 3 ENE HOUGHTON 47.14N 88.50W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH HOUGHTON MI EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
TKLUBER
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201742
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1239 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S ABBOTSFORD 44.92N 90.32W
05/20/2012 CLARK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE BRANCHES DOWN
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1239 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S ABBOTSFORD 44.92N 90.32W
05/20/2012 CLARK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE BRANCHES DOWN
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KARX [201737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KARX 201737
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1237 PM HAIL COLBY 44.91N 90.32W
05/20/2012 M0.25 INCH CLARK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRARX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1237 PM HAIL COLBY 44.91N 90.32W
05/20/2012 M0.25 INCH CLARK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
ZT
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201735
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1158 AM HAIL 8 NE OJIBWA 45.88N 91.00W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1158 AM HAIL 8 NE OJIBWA 45.88N 91.00W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 201729
SWODY2
SPC AC 201728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMES ENMESHED WITHIN LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AROUND THE
WEAK LOW WHICH HAS LINGERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE RESULT WILL
BE MAINTENANCE OF A WEAK LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
FARTHER W...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF A NERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN PIECEMEAL FASHION --
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. AS
PIECES OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE...WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
DESPITE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING...A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND THEN DRIFT SEWD GIVEN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS. WHILE MODEST CAPE AND LACK OF
STRONG UVV SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...FAIRLY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER GUST OR TWO -- AND THUS WILL
INTRODUCE LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING STORMS.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE LARGER/OFFSHORE TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS ID/WRN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE
MODEST/HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.
WITH THE FAIRLY DEEP/DRY MIXED LAYER EXPECTED /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 F BENEATH THE MODEST CAPE LAYER/...AND AMPLE
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
JUSTIFYING ADDITION OF LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS.
..GOSS.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY2
SPC AC 201728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMES ENMESHED WITHIN LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AROUND THE
WEAK LOW WHICH HAS LINGERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE RESULT WILL
BE MAINTENANCE OF A WEAK LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
FARTHER W...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF A NERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN PIECEMEAL FASHION --
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. AS
PIECES OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE...WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
DESPITE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING...A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND THEN DRIFT SEWD GIVEN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS. WHILE MODEST CAPE AND LACK OF
STRONG UVV SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...FAIRLY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER GUST OR TWO -- AND THUS WILL
INTRODUCE LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING STORMS.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE LARGER/OFFSHORE TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS ID/WRN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE
MODEST/HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.
WITH THE FAIRLY DEEP/DRY MIXED LAYER EXPECTED /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 F BENEATH THE MODEST CAPE LAYER/...AND AMPLE
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE --
JUSTIFYING ADDITION OF LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS.
..GOSS.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285
WWUS20 KWNS 201727
SEL5
SPC WW 201727
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-210100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HOUGHTON MICHIGAN TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN WI. THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL WILL ALSO PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL AS STORMS MOVE EWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...WEISS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SEL5
SPC WW 201727
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-210100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HOUGHTON MICHIGAN TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN WI. THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL WILL ALSO PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL AS STORMS MOVE EWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...WEISS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KMQT [201635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 201635
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1233 PM HAIL ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
MZIKA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1233 PM HAIL ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
MZIKA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDLH [201625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 201625
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1047 AM HAIL WINTER 45.82N 91.01W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1047 AM HAIL WINTER 45.82N 91.01W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KK
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201616
SWODY1
SPC AC 201614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER UPPER MI..WI..NRN/CNTRL IL
INTO NWRN IND...
...UPPER MI..WI..NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO WI AND
WRN UPPER MI ATTM. SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL WI IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NERN WI/CENTRAL UPPER MI BY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND NWRN/WEST CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING A LINE FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F AND
PW AROUND 1 INCH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
AN EARLIER BAND OF ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI
INTO WRN UPPER MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SLIGHTLY...WHILE NEW
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR EAU NWD TOWARD ASX. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EWD...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SWLY MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 40-50 KT ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/40-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO FORM...WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS EARLY AS 17-18Z. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL IL AS STRONG HEATING
WEAKENS THE CAP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...NWRN TX/SWRN AND SOUTH CNTRL OK...
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
OK...ESTABLISHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO IDENTIFIABLE
FEATURES ALOFT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND FORECASTS OF RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE NEUTRAL AT BEST. THIS IS REFLECTED BY VARIABILITY
IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE STORM REDEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AT THIS TIME WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SEVERE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR HAIL/WIND ATTM. MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF
THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
HIGH CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP.
...SOUTH OF THE SLGT RISK AREA INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...YIELDING COMPARATIVELY MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. AMPLE SFC HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH PULSE/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION.
...SOUTH FL...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
20-25 KT. AND...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AMIDST
PW VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCH PER GPS DATA...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ENSUE.
...FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
WEAK MOIST SELY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO THE LIMITED QUANTITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45F
RANGE. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER
TERRAIN.
..WEISS/GARNER.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 201614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER UPPER MI..WI..NRN/CNTRL IL
INTO NWRN IND...
...UPPER MI..WI..NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO WI AND
WRN UPPER MI ATTM. SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL WI IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NERN WI/CENTRAL UPPER MI BY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND NWRN/WEST CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING A LINE FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F AND
PW AROUND 1 INCH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
AN EARLIER BAND OF ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI
INTO WRN UPPER MI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SLIGHTLY...WHILE NEW
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR EAU NWD TOWARD ASX. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EWD...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SWLY MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 40-50 KT ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/40-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO FORM...WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS EARLY AS 17-18Z. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL IL AS STRONG HEATING
WEAKENS THE CAP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...NWRN TX/SWRN AND SOUTH CNTRL OK...
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
OK...ESTABLISHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO IDENTIFIABLE
FEATURES ALOFT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND FORECASTS OF RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE NEUTRAL AT BEST. THIS IS REFLECTED BY VARIABILITY
IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE STORM REDEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AT THIS TIME WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
SEVERE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR HAIL/WIND ATTM. MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF
THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
HIGH CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOP.
...SOUTH OF THE SLGT RISK AREA INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...YIELDING COMPARATIVELY MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. AMPLE SFC HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH PULSE/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION.
...SOUTH FL...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
20-25 KT. AND...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AMIDST
PW VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCH PER GPS DATA...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ENSUE.
...FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
WEAK MOIST SELY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO THE LIMITED QUANTITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45F
RANGE. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER
TERRAIN.
..WEISS/GARNER.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0849
ACUS11 KWNS 201553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201552
MIZ000-WIZ000-201745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN WI THROUGH THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201552Z - 201745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INITIALLY FROM WRN THROUGH W CNTRL WI AND NWD INTO THE WRN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 17Z-18Z.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER THEN SWD
THROUGH SERN MN AND ERN IA. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE UPPER 50S TO 60F
DEWPOINTS EXIST BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF WI. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN NWRN WI ARE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AND MAY POSE A NEAR TERM RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AUGMENTS DEEP ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46468754 43888873 43409113 45109113 46858883 46468754
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201552
MIZ000-WIZ000-201745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN WI THROUGH THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201552Z - 201745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INITIALLY FROM WRN THROUGH W CNTRL WI AND NWD INTO THE WRN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 17Z-18Z.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER THEN SWD
THROUGH SERN MN AND ERN IA. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE UPPER 50S TO 60F
DEWPOINTS EXIST BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF WI. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN NWRN WI ARE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AND MAY POSE A NEAR TERM RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AUGMENTS DEEP ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46468754 43888873 43409113 45109113 46858883 46468754
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KSJT [201531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSJT 201531
LSRSJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1030 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW BRADY 31.12N 99.39W
05/07/2012 MCCULLOCH TX INSURANCE COMPAN
CONVECTIVE WINDS TORE THE PORCH ROOF OFF OF A BRADY
LAKE RESIDENCE AND TOSSED IT 60 TO 70 FEET. TIME WAS
ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200162
$$
JOHNSON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRSJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1030 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW BRADY 31.12N 99.39W
05/07/2012 MCCULLOCH TX INSURANCE COMPAN
CONVECTIVE WINDS TORE THE PORCH ROOF OFF OF A BRADY
LAKE RESIDENCE AND TOSSED IT 60 TO 70 FEET. TIME WAS
ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200162
$$
JOHNSON
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [201427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 201427
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0550 PM HAIL 9 N ANGORA 35.96N 99.45W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0550 PM HAIL 9 N ANGORA 35.96N 99.45W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KGID [201319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGID 201319
LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
818 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL BRADSHAW 40.88N 97.75W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER
HAIL SIZED FROM PEA TO SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER.
COVERED MOST OF THE GROUND
&&
$$
PBEDA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
818 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL BRADSHAW 40.88N 97.75W
05/19/2012 E1.00 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER
HAIL SIZED FROM PEA TO SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER.
COVERED MOST OF THE GROUND
&&
$$
PBEDA
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 201247
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA
OF MI/ERN WI/NERN IL/FAR NWRN IND/WRN LAKE MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPOSITE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...EXTENDING SWD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AN IMPULSE
WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AN
ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHES FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE IT ARCS WSWWD INTO ERN NM. THE NRN/ERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND REACH FROM THE LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI TO WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN PLAINS EXTENT OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ROUGHLY INVOF THE RED RIVER/TX SOUTH PLAINS
REGION. A WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN WI TO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH COMPLEX WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE WRN
ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE MOVING EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF SC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON ALBERTO...PLEASE REFERENCE ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
...CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/ERN WI/NERN IL/FAR NWRN IND/WRN LAKE
MI TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/IMPULSE WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE
NNE-SSW-ORIENTED WARM SECTOR LEADING THE FRONT. WITHIN THIS
SECTOR...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE MODEST
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AS PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING INTO
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LARGELY PREVENT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING NWD. REGARDLESS...MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OWING TO POCKETS OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING
AMIDST THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PER 12Z RAOBS /AROUND 7.5 C PER KM WITHIN THE 700-500-MB LAYER/.
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN WI...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET LEADING THE IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THIS MORNING WHILE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW-END HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS
BUOYANCY OF INFLOW INCREASES OWING TO WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF
A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI INTO NERN IL...AND THEN TRACK EWD IN CORRESPONDENCE
WITH THE MOTION OF THE FRONT. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FEATURING 30-40 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND/HAIL. A COMPARATIVELY GREATER
RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS A TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE INVOF THE FRONTAL WAVE
ACROSS ERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED. A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
IN THIS REGION.
...SOUTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...YIELDING COMPARATIVELY MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. AMPLE SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE WITH PULSE/MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN PLAINS EXTENT OF THE
FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX AND SERN NM WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF OK TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A W-E-ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYING MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LARGELY
MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.
...FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
MODESTLY MOIST SELY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE
NWLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL
OWING TO THE LIMITED QUANTITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
...SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
20-25 KT. AND...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AMIDST
PW VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCH PER GPS DATA...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ENSUE.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA
OF MI/ERN WI/NERN IL/FAR NWRN IND/WRN LAKE MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPOSITE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...EXTENDING SWD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AN IMPULSE
WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AN
ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHES FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE IT ARCS WSWWD INTO ERN NM. THE NRN/ERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND REACH FROM THE LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI TO WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN PLAINS EXTENT OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ROUGHLY INVOF THE RED RIVER/TX SOUTH PLAINS
REGION. A WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN WI TO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH COMPLEX WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE WRN
ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE MOVING EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF SC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON ALBERTO...PLEASE REFERENCE ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
...CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/ERN WI/NERN IL/FAR NWRN IND/WRN LAKE
MI TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/IMPULSE WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE
NNE-SSW-ORIENTED WARM SECTOR LEADING THE FRONT. WITHIN THIS
SECTOR...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE MODEST
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AS PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING INTO
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LARGELY PREVENT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING NWD. REGARDLESS...MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OWING TO POCKETS OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING
AMIDST THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PER 12Z RAOBS /AROUND 7.5 C PER KM WITHIN THE 700-500-MB LAYER/.
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN WI...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET LEADING THE IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THIS MORNING WHILE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW-END HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS
BUOYANCY OF INFLOW INCREASES OWING TO WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF
A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI INTO NERN IL...AND THEN TRACK EWD IN CORRESPONDENCE
WITH THE MOTION OF THE FRONT. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FEATURING 30-40 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND/HAIL. A COMPARATIVELY GREATER
RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS A TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE INVOF THE FRONTAL WAVE
ACROSS ERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED. A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
IN THIS REGION.
...SOUTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...YIELDING COMPARATIVELY MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. AMPLE SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE WITH PULSE/MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN PLAINS EXTENT OF THE
FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AND
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX AND SERN NM WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF OK TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A W-E-ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYING MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LARGELY
MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.
...FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
MODESTLY MOIST SELY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE
NWLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL
OWING TO THE LIMITED QUANTITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
...SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
20-25 KT. AND...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AMIDST
PW VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCH PER GPS DATA...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ENSUE.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KDMX [200933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KDMX 200933
LSRDMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0836 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W DENISON AIRPORT 41.98N 95.60W
05/19/2012 CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL TREES AND AN OLD BARN BLOWN OVER AT THE
INTERSECTION OF 140TH STREET AND Q AVENUE. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.
0838 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW DOW CITY 41.90N 95.63W
05/19/2012 E65.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0840 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WSW DOW CITY 41.88N 95.60W
05/19/2012 E70.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0850 PM TSTM WND DMG RICKETTS 42.13N 95.57W
05/19/2012 CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER OUT AND BRANCHES DOWN IN TOWN. TRAMPOLINE WRAPPED
AROUND A TREE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0850 PM TSTM WND GST SCHLESWIG 42.16N 95.43W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER OUT IN TOWN.
0851 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE DENISON AIRPORT 42.02N 95.35W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG ODEBOLT 42.31N 95.25W
05/19/2012 SAC IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL LARGE TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN A CEMETARY. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.
0914 PM TSTM WND GST S BREDA 42.18N 94.98W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CARROLL IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH FOR ABOUT 5
MINUTES.
&&
$$
AWB
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRDMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0836 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W DENISON AIRPORT 41.98N 95.60W
05/19/2012 CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL TREES AND AN OLD BARN BLOWN OVER AT THE
INTERSECTION OF 140TH STREET AND Q AVENUE. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.
0838 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW DOW CITY 41.90N 95.63W
05/19/2012 E65.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0840 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WSW DOW CITY 41.88N 95.60W
05/19/2012 E70.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0850 PM TSTM WND DMG RICKETTS 42.13N 95.57W
05/19/2012 CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER OUT AND BRANCHES DOWN IN TOWN. TRAMPOLINE WRAPPED
AROUND A TREE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0850 PM TSTM WND GST SCHLESWIG 42.16N 95.43W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER OUT IN TOWN.
0851 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE DENISON AIRPORT 42.02N 95.35W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CRAWFORD IA TRAINED SPOTTER
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG ODEBOLT 42.31N 95.25W
05/19/2012 SAC IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL LARGE TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN A CEMETARY. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.
0914 PM TSTM WND GST S BREDA 42.18N 94.98W
05/19/2012 E60.00 MPH CARROLL IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH FOR ABOUT 5
MINUTES.
&&
$$
AWB
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 284
WWUS20 KWNS 200903
SEL4
SPC WW 200903
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284 ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SEL4
SPC WW 200903
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284 ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [200900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 200900
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 AM HAIL 1 N ELMORE CITY 34.64N 97.40W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH GARVIN OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
SCURL
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 AM HAIL 1 N ELMORE CITY 34.64N 97.40W
05/20/2012 E1.00 INCH GARVIN OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
SCURL
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 200828
SWOD48
SPC AC 200827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SHUNTED SEWD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. DURING THE DAY4-5
TIME FRAME BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THIS
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THERE
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A FEW TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT INDUCE
CONVECTION. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE LACK OF MARITIME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE EXPECTED STRONG CAP THAT MAY
LIMIT WARM SECTOR TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOD48
SPC AC 200827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SHUNTED SEWD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. DURING THE DAY4-5
TIME FRAME BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THIS
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THERE
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A FEW TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT INDUCE
CONVECTION. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE LACK OF MARITIME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE EXPECTED STRONG CAP THAT MAY
LIMIT WARM SECTOR TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0848
ACUS11 KWNS 200801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200800
OKZ000-200930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 200800Z - 200930Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN...INCLUDING RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR...ACROSS A NARROW
W-E CORRIDOR IN CNTRL OK.
DISCUSSION...WAA NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING
WITHIN A 35-MILE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM KIOWA COUNTY EWD THROUGH
GRADY/CLEVELAND COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST INTO OKFUSKEE/HUGHES
COUNTIES. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN IS REVEALED BY FREDERICK OK VWP
DATA...WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY FROM THE SFC TO
3 KM...WITH A NOTABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAX OF SSWLY AT
40 KT AROUND 1 KM AGL. SLOPED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATOP THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE TRAINING FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AS MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ARE STEERED EWD/ENEWD BY 20-35
KT OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
COLUMNAR SATURATION/LOW LCLS -- OWING TO EARLY CONVECTION -- WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AMIDST PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.2
INCHES PER GPS DATA. RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH/SHIFT SEWD AFTER 10Z...AS A DEEPER
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL OK UNDERCUTS ONGOING
CONVECTION WHILE MOVING SEWD.
..COHEN.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35419606 35219610 34989675 34879772 34829880 34919903
35199883 35339805 35319747 35539637 35419606
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200800
OKZ000-200930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 200800Z - 200930Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN...INCLUDING RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR...ACROSS A NARROW
W-E CORRIDOR IN CNTRL OK.
DISCUSSION...WAA NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING
WITHIN A 35-MILE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM KIOWA COUNTY EWD THROUGH
GRADY/CLEVELAND COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST INTO OKFUSKEE/HUGHES
COUNTIES. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN IS REVEALED BY FREDERICK OK VWP
DATA...WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY FROM THE SFC TO
3 KM...WITH A NOTABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAX OF SSWLY AT
40 KT AROUND 1 KM AGL. SLOPED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATOP THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE TRAINING FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AS MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ARE STEERED EWD/ENEWD BY 20-35
KT OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
COLUMNAR SATURATION/LOW LCLS -- OWING TO EARLY CONVECTION -- WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AMIDST PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.2
INCHES PER GPS DATA. RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH/SHIFT SEWD AFTER 10Z...AS A DEEPER
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL OK UNDERCUTS ONGOING
CONVECTION WHILE MOVING SEWD.
..COHEN.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35419606 35219610 34989675 34879772 34829880 34919903
35199883 35339805 35319747 35539637 35419606
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KPUB [200723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KPUB 200723
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 AM MDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 PM HAIL 5 NNE ROSITA 38.16N 105.28W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0545 PM HAIL 5 NNE ROSITA 38.16N 105.28W
05/19/2012 M0.75 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
COVERING GROUND
0217 PM HAIL 7 NW TYRONE 37.52N 104.29W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL FOR 9 MINUTES.
1002 AM HAIL 5 SE EADS 38.43N 102.71W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND.
0956 AM HAIL 2 SE EADS 38.46N 102.75W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC
&&
$$
LW
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 AM MDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 PM HAIL 5 NNE ROSITA 38.16N 105.28W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0545 PM HAIL 5 NNE ROSITA 38.16N 105.28W
05/19/2012 M0.75 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
COVERING GROUND
0217 PM HAIL 7 NW TYRONE 37.52N 104.29W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL FOR 9 MINUTES.
1002 AM HAIL 5 SE EADS 38.43N 102.71W
05/19/2012 M1.00 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND.
0956 AM HAIL 2 SE EADS 38.46N 102.75W
05/19/2012 E0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC
&&
$$
LW
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 200706
SWODY3
SPC AC 200705
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NRN PLAINS...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT A PRONOUNCED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS MT/WY INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MARGINAL WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY
APPROACHING THE MID-UPPER 50S...OR PERHAPS EVEN 60 DEG F PRIOR TO
THE WIND SHIFT. ADDITIONALLY...PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING WILL BE OF SOME
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL WARM SECTOR
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS VERY STRONG HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN NEB INTO
EXTREME SRN SD. IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S THEN
INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED ENOUGH FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE BREACHED ACROSS ND STRONGER FORCING SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY
REQUIRE AN INCREASE TO SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWODY3
SPC AC 200705
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NRN PLAINS...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT A PRONOUNCED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS MT/WY INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT MARGINAL WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY
APPROACHING THE MID-UPPER 50S...OR PERHAPS EVEN 60 DEG F PRIOR TO
THE WIND SHIFT. ADDITIONALLY...PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING WILL BE OF SOME
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL WARM SECTOR
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS VERY STRONG HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN NEB INTO
EXTREME SRN SD. IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S THEN
INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED ENOUGH FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE BREACHED ACROSS ND STRONGER FORCING SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY
REQUIRE AN INCREASE TO SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [200649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 200649
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
149 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SW PINK 35.24N 97.14W
05/20/2012 M67 MPH CLEVELAND OK TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SCURL
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
149 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0140 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SW PINK 35.24N 97.14W
05/20/2012 M67 MPH CLEVELAND OK TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SCURL
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [200640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 200640
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 AM HAIL 4 NNE ROCKY 35.21N 99.03W
05/20/2012 E1.25 INCH WASHITA OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
RBARNES
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 AM HAIL 4 NNE ROCKY 35.21N 99.03W
05/20/2012 E1.25 INCH WASHITA OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
RBARNES
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [200639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 200639
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0110 AM TSTM WND GST MOORE 35.34N 97.49W
05/20/2012 E60 MPH CLEVELAND OK TRAINED SPOTTER
WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 60 MPH ALONG I-35 BETWEEN SW 134TH
AND 89TH STREET. SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.
&&
$$
RBARNES
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0110 AM TSTM WND GST MOORE 35.34N 97.49W
05/20/2012 E60 MPH CLEVELAND OK TRAINED SPOTTER
WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 60 MPH ALONG I-35 BETWEEN SW 134TH
AND 89TH STREET. SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.
&&
$$
RBARNES
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0847
ACUS11 KWNS 200631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200630
OKZ000-200800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...
VALID 200630Z - 200800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
284 AND EWD ACROSS CNTRL OK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOW BY
MESOANALYSIS WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH 40
KT OF FLOW NEAR 500 MB IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM AT 500 MB EVIDENT
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SFC LAYER IS SOMEWHAT STABLE ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WATCH...MATURE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALSO POSE
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MARGINAL EARLY THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35439931 34699918 34369835 34229757 34359681 34869624
36009632 36069776 35439931
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200630
OKZ000-200800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...
VALID 200630Z - 200800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
284 AND EWD ACROSS CNTRL OK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOW BY
MESOANALYSIS WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH 40
KT OF FLOW NEAR 500 MB IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM AT 500 MB EVIDENT
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SFC LAYER IS SOMEWHAT STABLE ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WATCH...MATURE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALSO POSE
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MARGINAL EARLY THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES.. 05/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35439931 34699918 34369835 34229757 34359681 34869624
36009632 36069776 35439931
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
KOUN [200612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 200612
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 AM TSTM WND GST WILL ROGERS AIRPORT 35.39N 97.60W
05/20/2012 M70 MPH OKLAHOMA OK ASOS
&&
$$
JPIKE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 AM TSTM WND GST WILL ROGERS AIRPORT 35.39N 97.60W
05/20/2012 M70 MPH OKLAHOMA OK ASOS
&&
$$
JPIKE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)