ACUS48 KWNS 200828
SWOD48
SPC AC 200827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SHUNTED SEWD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. DURING THE DAY4-5
TIME FRAME BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THIS
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THERE
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A FEW TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT INDUCE
CONVECTION. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE LACK OF MARITIME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE EXPECTED STRONG CAP THAT MAY
LIMIT WARM SECTOR TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2012
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