Friday, May 14, 2010

KFWD [141630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 141630
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM FLASH FLOOD JACKSBORO 33.22N 98.17W
05/14/2010 JACK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURING AROUND THE COUNTY
WITH SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED. PART OF SH 59 HAS 8" OF WATER
OVER IT AND IS BEING CLOSED.

$$

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KEWX [141627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141627
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 W SAN ANTONIO 29.42N 98.66W
05/14/2010 M2.75 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

2.75 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THE LOCATION
IS CULEBRA AND LOOP 410.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000247

$$

MCDONALD

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KFWD [141624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 141624
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1119 AM FLASH FLOOD BOWIE 33.57N 97.85W
05/14/2010 MONTAGUE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW ROADS BRIEFLY CLOSED. ALL ROADS ARE OPEN NOW.

$$

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KFWD [141617]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 141617
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1102 AM FLASH FLOOD OLNEY 33.37N 98.77W
05/14/2010 YOUNG TX EMERGENCY MNGR

IN OLNEY, EVACUATIONS ARE BEING CONDUCTED IN THE
BLUEBONNET AREA. SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED AND HWYS 79 AND
114 ARE BEING CLOSED.

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559

ACUS11 KWNS 141616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141615
KYZ000-TNZ000-141715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TN THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141615Z - 141715Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL AND ERN KY. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SOON.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SERN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN AND WRN KY INTO
THE NWRN TIP OF TN. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
S-CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH N-CNTRL AND WRN TN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH 80F
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH PRESENCE OF ONLY A
WEAK CAP...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER
DESTABILIZES. WHILE THE FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER REMAINS
MODEST...VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF AROUND 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37098426 36198541 35368744 35108918 35438970 36068923
36878702 37808482 37098426

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141604
SWODY1
SPC AC 141602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN QUE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...80KT
500MB WIND MAX...WILL SHEAR EWD AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EVE. FARTHER W...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH
NOW OVER THE SWRN DESERTS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER UT BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN CO EARLY SAT. AN
IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD CROSS
NM TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT FROM NWRN PA SWWD VICINITY OH RIVER TO NRN AR
INTO SERN NM. ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLC STATES...THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN/LWR MS VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STNRY
OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.

...LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

REF MCD 558
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT CAPE
/2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MDT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OVER AND E OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP SRN PA/NRN MD EWD UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
FLOW JUST S OF MID LEVEL JET WITH A HIGHER RISK OF WIND DAMAGE.

...SRN HI PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
MOIST LOW LVL SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/
SRN HI PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF MODERATE SWLY MID
LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH. UPSLOPE FLOW... DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND WEAK UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX/SE NM THRU
THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE N OF STALLING FRONT OVER ERN NM AND WRN PARTS OF THE LOW
ROLLING PLNS.

BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...WEAK
CINH...AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE/ DEVELOP ESE TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION/LWR
PLAINS BY EVENING. THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS. THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH
GUSTY/DMGG WINDS OVER PARTS OF W CNTRL AND SW TX THIS EVE. OTHER
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY CROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE FROM NE
MEXICO INTO TX TONIGHT.

..HALES/JIRAK.. 05/14/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

ACUS11 KWNS 141556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141556
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA...ERN WV THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141556Z - 141800Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES INTO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

AT MID-DAY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN OH SWWD THROUGH WRN KY. LOW
60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC AND SRN PARTS OF THE
NERN STATES...SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATE 7+
C/KM LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. CONVECTION IS
INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF STRONG WSWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 41037730 40057656 38427709 37667813 37507966 37908042
38678038 40027995 40957911 41037730

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KEWX [141541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141541
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N SHAVANO PARK 29.62N 98.55W
05/14/2010 M2.20 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS

2.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 72 MINUTES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000246

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141532
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW SHAVANO PARK 29.54N 98.57W
05/14/2010 M1.10 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS

1.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 52 MINUTES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000245

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141525
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE LAKEHILLS 29.59N 98.94W
05/14/2010 E7.50 INCH BANDERA TX PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF MEDINA LAKE IN LAKEHILLS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000244

$$

CJM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0557

ACUS11 KWNS 141520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141520
OKZ000-TXZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL THROUGH NWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 141520Z - 141815Z

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR
WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM PARTS OF N-CNTRL THROUGH NW TX NEXT FEW
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN AR SWWD TROUGH N-CNTRL AND
NWRN TX INTO FAR WRN TX. BROAD ZONE OF 30-35 KT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD FROM THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN TX AS MOIST
PARCELS ARE LIFTED TO THEIR LFCS IN VICINITY OF CONSOLIDATED
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER N-CNTRL TX WHERE THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN THE ZONE OF HEAVY RAIN
REACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA BY MID-DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33359839 34009730 33999665 33669643 33169670 32509765
31929914 31900024 32590024 32999913 33359839

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KEWX [141520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141520
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW GUADALUPE RIVER ST 29.90N 98.54W
05/14/2010 M2.81 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

2.81 INCHES IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000243

$$

MCDONALD

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KFWD [141516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 141516
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM FLASH FLOOD OLNEY 33.37N 98.77W
05/14/2010 YOUNG TX EMERGENCY MNGR

THE OLNEY EM REPORTED FLOODING OVER THE CURBS AND INTO
YARDS.

$$

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KEWX [141445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141445
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM FLOOD E MICO 29.53N 98.93W
05/14/2010 MEDINA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM2676 IS CLOSED AND THERE IS A HIGH WATER RESCUE
TAKING PLACE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000242

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141443
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLOOD 1 S BANDERA 29.71N 99.07W
05/14/2010 BANDERA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAYS FM1283 AND PARK ROAD 37 ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000241

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141441
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
941 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM HAIL N LAKEHILLS 29.60N 98.94W
05/14/2010 E0.50 INCH BANDERA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL NEAR LAKEHILLS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000240

$$

MCDONALD

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KPAH [141440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 141440
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
940 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM HAIL SE HOPKINSVILLE 36.85N 87.49W
05/14/2010 E0.75 INCH CHRISTIAN KY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN REPORTED HAS WELL.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KEWX [141439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141439
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
939 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 AM FLOOD 10 N HONDO 29.50N 99.16W
05/14/2010 MEDINA TX MESONET

SH173 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER NEAR VERDE CREEK.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000239

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141435
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW GUADALUPE RIVER ST 29.90N 98.54W
05/14/2010 M2.05 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

2.05 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000238

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141434
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW BOERNE 29.75N 98.82W
05/14/2010 M1.60 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

1.60 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR... WINDS
ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000237

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141432
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
932 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL 7 ENE BARKSDALE 29.75N 99.93W
05/14/2010 E0.50 INCH REAL TX COCORAHS

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000236

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141406
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
905 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM FLOOD 1 N CASTROVILLE 29.36N 98.87W
05/14/2010 MEDINA TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSING ARE CLOSED IN CASTROVILLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000235

$$

MCDONALD

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KEWX [141404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141404
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
904 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 AM HAIL 4 N CASTROVILLE 29.41N 98.87W
05/14/2010 E0.50 INCH MEDINA TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF CASTROVILLE .


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000234

$$

MCDONALD

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KSGF [141351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 141351
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
851 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW ROLLA 37.98N 91.81W
05/14/2010 PHELPS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OVER A SECTION
OF HIGHWAY Y APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROLLA. THIS SECTION OF THE HIGHWAY HAS BEEN CLOSED OFF TO
MOTORISTS.


&&

$$

DCRAMER

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KEWX [141351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141351
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
851 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 WSW HELOTES 29.54N 98.77W
05/14/2010 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A PARK RANGER AT GOVERNMENT CANYON STATE PARK REPORTED
A FUNNEL CLOUD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000233

$$

MCDONALD

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KPBZ [141342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 141342
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG SHARON 41.23N 80.50W
05/14/2010 MERCER PA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE SHARON, FARRELL AND
HERMITAGE AREAS.

0535 AM TSTM WND DMG OIL CITY 41.43N 79.70W
05/14/2010 VENANGO PA EMERGENCY MNGR

LGE TREES DOWN ON CARS AT CAR DEALERSHIP AT RIVERSIDE
DRIVE AND US ROUTE 62 IN CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP.


&&

$$

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KSGF [141338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 141338
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
838 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM FLASH FLOOD COLUMBUS 37.17N 94.84W
05/14/2010 CHEROKEE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THE CHEROKEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR RELAYED
TO THE NWS THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FLOODED SEVERAL COUNTY
ROADS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
ALSO...BOTH THE NEOSHO RIVER AND THE LIGHTNING CREEK WERE
CLOSE TO RISING OVER FLOOD STAGE.


&&

$$

DCRAMER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0556

ACUS11 KWNS 141251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141251
TXZ000-NMZ000-141415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM/W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169...

VALID 141251Z - 141415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FROM SE NM/W CENTRAL TX BORDER NWD INTO ERN NM. INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

BROKEN BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
ERN/SERN NM THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WAA. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/ABQ SHOW RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE W...WHILE THE MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS REVEAL
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS
MORNING NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32070303 31960311 32000484 32520484 32520534 33130530
33130489 34340488 34340531 35210527 35220415 35280363
35390362 35380340 35720337 35730302 34770304 34760253
34300257 34300266 32930257 32940220 32050222 32070303

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141250
SWODY1
SPC AC 141249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT FLATTEN AS ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES ESE
INTO SRN QUE. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MN SHOULD SHEAR EWD
AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH...REACHING THE LWR GRT LKS THIS EVE.
FARTHER W...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER UT LATER
TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ENE INTO WY EARLY SAT. AN IMPULSE IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD CROSS NM
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH ONT/QUE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLC STATES...THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN/LWR MS VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STNRY
OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.

...SRN HI PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
MOIST LOW LVL SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/
SRN HI PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF MODERATE SWLY MID
LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH. UPSLOPE FLOW... DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND WEAK UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT NUMEROUS AFTN/EVE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX/SE
NM. IN ADDITION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE N
OF STALLING FRONT OVER ERN NM AND WRN PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLNS.


WITH SBCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...WEAK CINH...AND 35-40 KT OF
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE/
DEVELOP ESE TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION/LWR PLAINS BY EVENING.
THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE STORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH GUSTY/DMGG WINDS OVER PARTS
OF W CNTRL AND SW TX THIS EVE. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY
CROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE FROM NE MEXICO INTO TX TONIGHT.

...LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
BANDS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SRN
OZARKS ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOIST
/WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES. COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF
MORNING ACTIVITY. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FROM KY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND
OVER CNTRL/SRN PA TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. EMBEDDED BOWS MAY YIELD
BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/14/2010

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KEWX [141219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 141219
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
719 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HAIL 15 S PIPE CREEK 29.50N 98.93W
05/14/2010 E0.88 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

A SPOTTER FROM NEAR MEDINA LAKE REPORTED PEA TO NICKLE
SIZE HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000232

$$

MCDONALD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0555

ACUS11 KWNS 141209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141209
TXZ000-141415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 141209Z - 141415Z

QUASI-STATIONARY MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ IS SPREADING NWD
ACROSS S CENTRAL TX ON A 30-40 KT SSELY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE
FEED...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING...IS MAINTAINING A
QUASI-STATIONARY MCS JUST W OF SAT. LITTLE NET MOTION OF THE MCS IS
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF LOCAL WIND PROFILES THAT
FAVOR CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION SWD TO OFFSET SLOW NWD
MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A COLD
POOL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE S
WARMS AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL INCREASES SOME...AT WHICH TIME
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE EWD/NEWD. UNTIL THEN...THE
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3
INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON 29129826 28849883 29099921 29629935 30039937 30369916
30369851 29709818 29129826

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169

WWUS20 KWNS 141014
SEL9
SPC WW 141014
NMZ000-TXZ000-141800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 415 AM UNTIL NOON MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOBBS NEW
MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS MOIST...LOW-LVL WAA
CONTINUES ATOP SHALLOW COOL LAYER. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR APPEAR PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS...QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CORFIDI

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KCLE [141014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 141014
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
614 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 AM TSTM WND DMG BROOKFIELD CENTER 41.24N 80.56W
05/14/2010 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN THROUGH A HOUSE ROOF. TREES DOWN ON ROADS.


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

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KCLE [140948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCLE 140948
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
548 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 AM HAIL MILAN 41.29N 82.60W
05/14/2010 E0.88 INCH ERIE OH PUBLIC

0325 AM TSTM WND DMG WAKEMAN 41.26N 82.40W
05/14/2010 HURON OH PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0330 AM HAIL AMHERST 41.40N 82.23W
05/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LORAIN OH PUBLIC

0347 AM HAIL LORAIN 41.44N 82.18W
05/14/2010 E0.88 INCH LORAIN OH PUBLIC

0355 AM TSTM WND DMG STRONGSVILLE 41.31N 81.83W
05/14/2010 CUYAHOGA OH PUBLIC

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

0420 AM TSTM WND GST AKRON 41.08N 81.52W
05/14/2010 E65.00 MPH SUMMIT OH PUBLIC

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG HOWLAND CENTER 41.25N 80.75W
05/14/2010 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

18 MILE PATH OF DAMAGE FROM HOWLAND CENTER THROUGH
VIENNA...BROOKFIELD AND WARREN CITY. ROOF DAMAGE...TREES
DOWN ON HOMES AND ROADS.


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

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KCLE [140941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 140941
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
541 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG HOWLAND CENTER 41.25N 80.75W
05/14/2010 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

18 MILE PATH OF DAMAGE FROM HOWLAND CENTER THROUGH
VIENNA...BROOKFIELD AND WARREN CITY. ROOF DAMAGE...TREES
DOWN ON HOMES AND ROADS.

0355 AM TSTM WND DMG STRONGSVILLE 41.31N 81.83W
05/14/2010 CUYAHOGA OH PUBLIC

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

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KCLE [140902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 140902
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
502 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM TSTM WND GST AKRON 41.08N 81.52W
05/14/2010 E65 MPH SUMMIT OH PUBLIC


&&

$$

RANDEL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140857
SWOD48
SPC AC 140856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
MONDAY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD MONDAY/DAY 4 AND TUESDAY/DAY 5. FROM HERE...THE MODELS MOVE
THE ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INTO GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6
AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM.
THIS PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SRN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 THROUGH FRIDAY/DAY 8.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND ERN U.S. SUGGESTS PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING THE DAY 4 TO
8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554

ACUS11 KWNS 140810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140809
TXZ000-NMZ000-140945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM/W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140809Z - 140945Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SE
NM AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE NM. THE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A SELY LLJ...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE NWWD FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO SE NM WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE /ROOTED
NEAR 800 MB/ WILL APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33560272 32250274 31880306 31760403 32130498 32860518
33720509 34440483 34660380 34340302 33560272

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KCLE [140759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 140759
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 AM HAIL MILAN 41.29N 82.60W
05/14/2010 E0.88 INCH ERIE OH PUBLIC

0325 AM TSTM WND DMG WAKEMAN 41.26N 82.40W
05/14/2010 HURON OH PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0330 AM HAIL AMHERST 41.40N 82.23W
05/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LORAIN OH PUBLIC

0347 AM HAIL LORAIN 41.44N 82.18W
05/14/2010 E0.88 INCH LORAIN OH PUBLIC


&&

$$

RANDEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553

ACUS11 KWNS 140748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140748
PAZ000-OHZ000-140915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140748Z - 140915Z

A SMALL BOWING CLUSTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL
TIME/SPACE WINDOW FOR THE THREAT MAKES THE NEED FOR A WATCH
UNCERTAIN.

A CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER ROTATING STORMS IN NW OH HAS EVOLVED
INTO A SMALL BOWING CLUSTER THAT IS APPROACHING THE CLE AREA AS OF
0745Z. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG A STALLED
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF LAKE ERIE...FED BY WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR.
DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED BOWING
STRUCTURES...AND THE FAST STORM MOTION /55-60 KT/ SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR IN NW PA WITHIN
THE NEXT 1.5-2 HOURS...AND IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE
HIGH-MOMENTUM OUTFLOW IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE
STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
THUS...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40977906 40827920 40777956 40848048 40928142 40958185
41248178 41498158 41588095 41607983 41557942 41457905
40977906

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140719
SWODY3
SPC AC 140719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SCNTRL U.S.
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL
FORECASTS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CNTRL TX SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS SFC TEMPS WARM. SOME MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
SUGGESTS THE STRONG CELLS MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH END UP BEING REASONABLE.

FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN ERN AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010

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KIWX [140717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 140717
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
316 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W DELPHOS 40.84N 84.36W
05/14/2010 VAN WERT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

A 50 FOOT TREE FELL ON A TRUCK AND HOUSE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000526

$$

LASHLEY

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KIWX [140714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 140714
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N OHIO CITY 40.81N 84.62W
05/14/2010 VAN WERT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

5 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF ON S.R. 118. 40 FOOT PINE
TREE UPROOTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000525

$$

LASHLEY

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KIWX [140711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 140711
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM TORNADO 3 N SWAYZEE 40.55N 85.83W
05/14/2010 GRANT IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD AND BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN
OPEN FIELD NORTHEAST OF SWAYZEE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000524

$$

LUD

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KPUB [140633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 140633
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1233 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 PM SNOW 2 NE LEADVILLE 39.27N 106.27W
05/13/2010 M4.2 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR AMOUNT. 0.32 WATER


&&

$$

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KIWX [140633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 140633
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM TSTM WND DMG DELPHOS 40.84N 84.34W
05/14/2010 ALLEN OH TRAINED SPOTTER

5 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN IN DELPHOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000523

$$

LASHLEY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140601
SWODY2
SPC AC 140559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK ALONG A ZONE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED IN THE PECOS REGION OF WEST TX WITH THE WEST EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM SE NM INTO NW TX. FROM THIS
CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ON
THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
WEST TX AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A FEW
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SRN OK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH ACCESS TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
SATURDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE
OZARKS EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE OZARKS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
WEST EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE MS RIVER AND IN THE TN
VALLEY SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN MOST AREAS SHOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0552

ACUS11 KWNS 140548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140548
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-140715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140548Z - 140715Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING STORMS
ALONG A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OH. THIS
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
WARM SECTOR FROM NE INDIANA INTO NW OH. ONE STORM CLUSTER IN
PARTICULAR /VAN WERT COUNTY OH/ APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD ALONG A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING WWD FROM CONVECTION NEAR CLE. THE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF 500-750 J/KG SBCAPE AND LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED
SHEAR...WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS APPEARS AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING ENEWD FROM
CENTRAL IL TOWARD NRN INDIANA/NW OH.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON 40738037 40598170 40308338 40358486 40658480 41278405
41348299 41308171 41398093 41238042 40968031 40778046
40738037

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140519
SWODY1
SPC AC 140518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF
NM/W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SERN STATES UPR RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE MID-LVL WAVE OVER
THE UPR GRTLKS TURNS EWD TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE MEAN WRN STATES TROUGH POSITION
WILL EJECT ENE FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL
MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO THE LWR MS VLY
DURING THE PD.

IN THE LWR-LVLS...THE CDFNT FOLLOWING THE NRN-MOST TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC REGION...CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN
VLY/MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT. TAIL-END OF THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NM/W TX.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NM/W TX...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO FAR W TX AND SERN NM
FRIDAY...PROBABLY FARTHER W THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/UPSTREAM FALLING PRESSURES. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...SELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK UPR SUPPORT ALONG SRN
FRINGES OF THE APCHG TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER SW TX/SE NM TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. MLCAPES ALONG
THE ERN SLOPES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000-2500 J/KG AND WITH WEAKENING
CINH AND ROUGHLY 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY AS STORMS MATURE TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS/LWR PLAINS BY EVENING.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH GUSTY/DMGG WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN LOW-ROLLING PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM
NE MEXICO.

...MID-SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
DISORGANIZED BANDS OF LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG/N
OF A SEWD MOVING CDFNT/CONVECTIVE-INDUCED OUTFLOWS OVER A BROAD ZONE
FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION SWWD TO THE MID-SOUTH AT 12Z FRIDAY. MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED EWD S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE
HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR NEW TSTMS TO
FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MORNING CONVECTION. MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR KY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION
AHEAD OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE GRTLKS TROUGH.
BUT...OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMIDST COMPARATIVELY STRONGER
INSTABILITY FARTHER W ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY TOO.

THE ENTIRE REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-45 KTS OF
WSW MID-LVL FLOW RESULTING IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE KINEMATIC
PROFILES TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLS. BUT...MORE THAN
LIKELY...WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL
GIVE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. A DECREASE IN SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

..RACY/ROGERS.. 05/14/2010

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KFWD [140516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 140516
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL JACKSBORO 33.22N 98.17W
05/14/2010 E1.75 INCH JACK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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