SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140809
TXZ000-NMZ000-140945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM/W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140809Z - 140945Z
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SE
NM AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE NM. THE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A SELY LLJ...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE NWWD FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO SE NM WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE /ROOTED
NEAR 800 MB/ WILL APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33560272 32250274 31880306 31760403 32130498 32860518
33720509 34440483 34660380 34340302 33560272
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